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Post by fofos2000i on Jan 7, 2016 9:19:29 GMT -5
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Post by liane on Jan 7, 2016 9:24:04 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of the Dance platform, but his point is right on target.
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 7, 2016 9:30:37 GMT -5
-after the SNY investor day where they failed to mention Afrezza in any of their plans, this became the big concern. Somehow we all talked ourselves out of them bailing, preferring to believe that they were still evaluating, and refining their master plan. It was some grand master plan allright. 1. Gain control the threat. 2. Delay the threat. 3. Kill the threat. boy if I was a conspiracy theorist, besides having the Lazard and other financial short side connections, I'd say how they probably also had someone inside Greenhill making sure the contract left little power & recourse to MNKD in the event of perfect execution of the grand master plan. By teh way, anyone care to calculate the odds that so many successive epic fails could occur in a row, developing into the 'perfect storm' if you will, for a company with a fantastic product that 1 year ago seemingly had only a 1% chance of finding it's way here to this point....oh and did I mention, calculate them for the case 'without the intervention of any external nefarious forces involved'. Glad I am not a conspiracy theorist.  |
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 7, 2016 9:45:29 GMT -5
Good points but how did Al & his team not work through the process & see the conflict of interest with SNY? Unless SNY was the only one to step up to the plate then I could see Al giving in to get Afrezza on the market. I just don't know what to think anymore! Great product, FDA approved, global possibilities, better health for patients... yet we are worried about surviving until 2017.
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Post by cjc04 on Jan 7, 2016 10:02:45 GMT -5
48 hours and I'm still numb.... Trying to expedite the range of emotions to work thru, shock, anger, sadness, regret, so I can look away and move on with life.... Unfortunately that will never really happen, my wife is T1, and she started Afrezza 3 weeks ago and is doing great!!! I hope she never has to hear that she needs to go back to injected.......
Anyway,,,,,, clearly caught in one of those emotions.....
To the point of this thread,,,,, maybe there's a BP that's not yet in diabetes that would love to enter the sector with a disruptive product.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2016 10:08:58 GMT -5
Good points but how did Al & his team not work through the process & see the conflict of interest with SNY? Unless SNY was the only one to step up to the plate then I could see Al giving in to get Afrezza on the market. I just don't know what to think anymore! Great product, FDA approved, global possibilities, better health for patients... yet we are worried about surviving until 2017. when one works on good faith and trust.. and usually expects the other do the same... values/ethics vary |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2016 10:55:42 GMT -5
Sounds like he is looking for capital himself and has an interest in pumping inhalhed insulin
However its good that people are saying this behind the scenes
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Post by stevil on Jan 7, 2016 11:03:34 GMT -5
I don't understand this line of reasoning. First, Lantus is going generic, so any profits from it were going to be severely depleted anyway. Second, SNY could have dominated the market with both prandial and basal insulin instead of maybe owning it with basal. I haven't had time to follow the numbers, but I thought I remembered seeing that Toujeo, thus far, has been unremarkable. So, "going against its golden goose franchise" isn't really a logical argument. Any lost sales in basal (from eventually needing less of it in type 2s) would be realized with Afrezza, at least initially, unless and until the patient no longer needed insulin for control. Perhaps that is why they set the price so high, though. If they couldn't get the high asking price, maybe it wouldn't have made sense from a numbers standpoint. In any case, it still seems counter-intuitive to me. It would seem the more options people have, the better. Especially when that one option is far different than any other out there... |
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Post by stevil on Jan 7, 2016 11:07:04 GMT -5
Good points but how did Al & his team not work through the process & see the conflict of interest with SNY? Unless SNY was the only one to step up to the plate then I could see Al giving in to get Afrezza on the market. I just don't know what to think anymore! Great product, FDA approved, global possibilities, better health for patients... yet we are worried about surviving until 2017. Hopefully this doesn't hijack the thread, but this comment lends proof for why it's important to have differing opinions on a message board. This isn't intended to be an "I told you so" kind of post, but for the life of me, I can't understand why some on here have difficulty reading that all wasn't right in the Afrezza world. It's always good to surround yourself with people who have a different angle on things to help you see the complete picture. The blind faith in Al Mann, while understandable, should not have been so easily granted. Everyone makes mistakes. |
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Post by pengiep on Jan 7, 2016 11:08:48 GMT -5
Given that SNY has a track record of sandbagging their small biotech partners, the evidence is very strong that they also did this to MNKD. One would hope that in a lawsuit, this ongoing pattern of behavior would be brought in as evidence.
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 7, 2016 11:23:07 GMT -5
-after the SNY investor day where they failed to mention Afrezza in any of their plans, this became the big concern. Somehow we all talked ourselves out of them bailing, preferring to believe that they were still evaluating, and refining their master plan. It was some grand master plan allright. 1. Gain control the threat. 2. Delay the threat. 3. Kill the threat. boy if I was a conspiracy theorist, besides having the Lazard and other financial short side connections, I'd say how they probably also had someone inside Greenhill making sure the contract left little power & recourse to MNKD in the event of perfect execution of the grand master plan. By teh way, anyone care to calculate the odds that so many successive epic fails could occur in a row, developing into the 'perfect storm' if you will, for a company with a fantastic product that 1 year ago seemingly had only a 1% chance of finding it's way here to this point....oh and did I mention, calculate them for the case 'without the intervention of any external nefarious forces involved'. Glad I am not a conspiracy theorist.
Here jpg I'll do it for you. And don the Foil Hat.
Fishy. And not in a way us Cats like.
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 7, 2016 12:18:22 GMT -5
A while back I suggested that the SNY strategy (at least before CEO change) was probably hedging a bet.
They were going slow ramp to test waters initially. And to avoid overhanging their Touejo sales. They aren't going to split sales team attention too far (following some Moore approach).
Then, option A - if lukewarm response to lukewarm GTM, a loss they could write off, and possibly kill a small upstart.
Or Option B - If it took off like gangbusters and the injectable took a hit, well, they could always pivot towards Afrezza with either 65% of a market disruptor and/or buy it entirely before price got way too high.
Seems like based on reception and SNY's current situation (less risk tolerance than under previous CEO, and more stock sensitivity) - they went Option A.
I don't think it was 100% Foil Hat (sandbag day 1), but I don't think it was 100% good intent either. Business is almost always gray area - what makes sense for money is always opportunistic in every direx (good or nefarious or both simultaneously).
That doesn't mean I don't think its Evil.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 7, 2016 14:42:19 GMT -5
More and more I'm thinking that this failure was partially Al Mann's fault. Even before launch, Sanofi's marketing presentation for Afrezza indicated that they would be initially targeting early diabetics who are in need of insulin initiation or insulin insensification. That population would not appear to conflict with anything except OADs.
Shortly into the game, though, I think that Sanofi was surprised (perhaps we all were) by the results being reported by Type 1 diabetic and with their continuous glucose monitors we (and Sanofi) were able to quickly learn that Afrezza poses a threat to Sanofi's bread & butter diabetes franchise.
As much as I respect and admire the guy, I think that it's very possible that Al Mann, himself, insisted on going after early T2's. Perhaps he wanted to prove his theories about remission or, at 90 year old, Al wanted to see a new standard of first treatment gain recognition by the medical community before he dies.
Afrezza, because of its cost, won't stand a chance with insurers compared to low-cost OAD until there is empirical evidence that shows Afrezza can delay or stop the progression of diabetes. Couple Al's desire with Sanofi's being conflicted with the potential of Afrezza taking a big bite out of its insulin franchise and you see what might have really happened here.
In the face of a crumbling diabetes presence, Sanofi does NOT want an insulin like Afrezza competing in its space. Faced with the prospect of developing a treatment that could lead to remission of diabetes (no need for diabetes medications) and failing diabetes drug revenue, I think that Sanofi chose the money over the patient.
If the 2015 Afrezza story bears any semblance to this scenario, then it begs the question: How are Sanofi and Turing CEO Martin Shkreli really so different?
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 7, 2016 14:55:49 GMT -5
Al sounded very confident at the 2014 share holders meeting in Valencia. Maybe he assumed, upon FDA approval, there would be a bidding war from the BP heavy weights to buy MNKD. Maybe that did not happen & he relied upon SNY instead of doing his own due diligence for the launch of Afrezza. Hence here we are.... just a thought.
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