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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2016 23:07:22 GMT -5
Ok, I'll take a stab at this guessing thing. Let's imagine for a second, MNKD decides to go in alone... SCARY, right. But wait. First the necessary info. Currently cash burn sits at around $10m a month, $30m a quarter, $120m a year, YIKES! However, that is with Sanofi as a partner, correct. So from now on, what is the actual pain inflicted? Not sure on this one. But, I am assuming more than this $10m a month. This is in my opinion, is the biggest obstacle for us.
Now the overwhelming positives(I am an optomist to a fault, so please provide any feedback). We have been increasing sales from month to month. We count RXs as around $1m a month, yes small, I know. The KEY. The KEY. They are growing, and helps us to prolong our life as a company. If the RXs numbers by June are able to provide around $3m+ a month in revenue, I think a corner will be turned. Why? Strong case for a Afrezza becoming a diabetics "go to" medicine. Word of mouth has gotten us this far with "help" from Sanofi, thinks can only improve. Whenever I read social media regarding Afrezza there are two camps. Those that use it, love it, and CANNOT LIVE WITHOUT IT! The other is the group spitting in long's faces. The second group loves to point out how Afrezza is only a niche drug, that advertising was done but to no affect. BS! Comparing advertisting on Tujeo vs Afrezza. I can say with out any doubt the number was 10x or more. And the fact that Afrezza was not given a chance to become a real difference maker is where we should really focus on. Even if Afrezza is a only destined to become a niche drug, what percentage of diabetics does it capture, 5%, 10%, the sales figures for even such a small percentage is in the $100s millions. I digress. The first group has stated, time and time again, I love it, I need it, I am not a diabetic any longer. What other insulin provides this kind of confidence, nothing else! It is because of these individuals that Matt, Al, and Desisto better keep MNKD running, damn it! After being burned by the FDA, Sanofi, GS, Adam F., blah blah blah. What else is there? I say bring, I say Matt get your shi! together, and sell the crap yourself if necessary. Get this medicine to those who want it. Freak Sanofi, this is now our TIME!
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 7, 2016 23:16:59 GMT -5
I have a feeling this is what they want to do:-) The other part of me agrees with kc about the sale. So I'll just go with Lynn..Keep swimming!
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Post by harryx1 on Jan 8, 2016 8:59:36 GMT -5
All time high TRxs and RRxs for December that included short weeks and sandbagging by Sanofi! Between Thanksgiving, Christmas and other holidays, how many people were exposed to Afrezza during family get together dinners, etc.? January should be an interesting month!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 9:23:30 GMT -5
I agree, January will reveal Afrezza's growth potential. I am assuming Sanofi will put little to no effort into sales, any growth will be due to physician knowledge and patient demand.
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Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 8, 2016 9:28:26 GMT -5
If MNKD goes it alone, all the sales, marketing, and RA costs are borne by them. The cash burn will be much more than now. We can use DNDN as a benchmark. They went it alone with high hopes of $1bln annual sales. The best they could do was $300 mln/yr (from recollection). They needed to get to $500 mln to be profitable. Never got there. From the low sales level now ($10 mln/yr?) MNKD also needs to ramp up to at least $500 mln in sales to have a chance.
BTW, DNDN went BK and the assets are now owned by VRX.
If TS as an excipient does not take off at MNKD, then resources focused not these activities can be shed. It will lower the breakeven point but not by much.
Obviously, MNKD will not zoom to $500 mln in one year or two years. Financing is needed to get them over the hump. How long it will take to get sales up determines the up front financing MNKD needs.
If MNKD goes it alone they need to sell somebody on the concept and this somebody will write the checks.
I know the cold hard market realities do not sit well with many on this Board. But this is what is underway at MNKD right now. Does anyone think that Desisto is saying: "I know, we can put on a show?" Desisto is a professional CEO and knows what he has to do?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 9:32:25 GMT -5
If MNKD goes it alone, all the sales, marketing, and RA costs are borne by them. The cash burn will be much more than now. We can use DNDN as a benchmark. They went it alone with high hopes of $1bln annual sales. The best they could do was $300 mln/yr (from recollection). They needed to get to $500 mln to be profitable. Never got there. From the low sales level now ($10 mln/yr?) MNKD also needs to ramp up to at least $500 mln in sales to have a chance. BTW, DNDN went BK and the assets are now owned by VRX. If TS as an excipient does not take off at MNKD, then resources focused not these activities can be shed. It will lower the breakeven point but not by much. Obviously, MNKD will not zoom to $500 mln in one year or two years. Financing is needed to get them over the hump. How long it will take to get sales up determines the up front financing MNKD needs. If MNKD goes it alone they need to sell somebody on the concept and this somebody will write the checks. I know the cold hard market realities do not sit well with many on this Board. But this is what is underway at MNKD right now. Does anyone think that Desisto is saying: "I know, we can put on a show?" Desisto is a professional CEO and knows what he has to do? justify please --> MNKD also needs to ramp up to at least $500 mln in sales to have a chance.
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/4784/foward#ixzz3wfC3nec9
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Post by dpca10 on Jan 8, 2016 9:38:43 GMT -5
I disagree on Sanofi sandbagging for the remainder of the partnership. Their obligation is for full support until the divorce is final. We will get the same or higher level of support from Sanofi unless they want to invite a lawsuit. I almost think that is why we saw an uptick in support, doctors meetings etc.. Somewhat of a too little too late support effort to just say "look we are doing everything".
the true Hail Mary is of we somehow got insurance coverage and a large growth in script numbers right as we moved towards separation and 100% profits. Not out of the question.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 8, 2016 9:43:31 GMT -5
CEO Duane DeSisto has serious experience in negotiating reimbursements with third-party payers. That may prove to be BIG in MannKind's immediate future, IMO.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 9:51:32 GMT -5
CEO Duane DeSisto has serious experience in negotiating reimbursements with third-party payers. That may prove to be BIG in MannKind's immediate future, IMO. The number one issue is insurance, if DD can influence them to give us tier 2 status, MannKind's outlook brightens considerably.
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Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 8, 2016 10:03:55 GMT -5
If MNKD goes it alone, all the sales, marketing, and RA costs are borne by them. The cash burn will be much more than now. We can use DNDN as a benchmark. They went it alone with high hopes of $1bln annual sales. The best they could do was $300 mln/yr (from recollection). They needed to get to $500 mln to be profitable. Never got there. From the low sales level now ($10 mln/yr?) MNKD also needs to ramp up to at least $500 mln in sales to have a chance. BTW, DNDN went BK and the assets are now owned by VRX. If TS as an excipient does not take off at MNKD, then resources focused not these activities can be shed. It will lower the breakeven point but not by much. Obviously, MNKD will not zoom to $500 mln in one year or two years. Financing is needed to get them over the hump. How long it will take to get sales up determines the up front financing MNKD needs. If MNKD goes it alone they need to sell somebody on the concept and this somebody will write the checks. I know the cold hard market realities do not sit well with many on this Board. But this is what is underway at MNKD right now. Does anyone think that Desisto is saying: "I know, we can put on a show?" Desisto is a professional CEO and knows what he has to do? justify please --> MNKD also needs to ramp up to at least $500 mln in sales to have a chance.
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/4784/foward#ixzz3wfC3nec9No need to repeat myself. If you have a better number, publish it with justification.
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Post by greg on Jan 8, 2016 10:14:30 GMT -5
No need to repeat myself. If you have a better number, publish it with justification. mnkdmorelong, As was established on a different thread, your $500 million number was virtually meaningless. Your starting point was off by 250% and you moved from $300 to $500 in a matter of minutes. Now you use that silly number as if it means something. Before you ask others to come up with a better number, you should first generate a better number yourself, one you can justify far better than you did before. Comparing MNKD to DNDN is also rather silly. Do you really know anything about Provenge or did you just pick DNDN because it fits your negative narrative?
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Post by mbseeking on Jan 8, 2016 10:16:30 GMT -5
K: I'm 100% in agreement with you on this.. For the longest time I figured it was only clinical trials.. albeit with the price premium..that could move the needle on insurance , so to speak. Desperate times.. cut the price.. I reckon some payers would start to move... and include Afrezza as Tier2. . And I've got to believe just few strategic phones calls could get this happening. BAm.. if this is truly a blockbuster then things would start moving.. I'm now totally convinced SNY did less than nothing.
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Post by lorcan458 on Jan 8, 2016 10:21:24 GMT -5
It will be very interesting to see what happens if Mannkind immediately lowers the price and Sanofi, fearing a lawsuit, actually supports the product fully until the transition is finalized and pushes for tier 2 successfully. It would be sweet justice if Sanofi ends up enabling the true potential of Afrezza over the next few months and with 100% of the profits going to Mannkind.
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Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 8, 2016 10:26:04 GMT -5
No need to repeat myself. If you have a better number, publish it with justification. mnkdmorelong, As was established on a different thread, your $500 million number was virtually meaningless. Your starting point was off by 250% and you moved from $300 to $500 in a matter of minutes. Now you use that silly number as if it means something. Before you ask others to come up with a better number, you should first generate a better number yourself, one you can justify far better than you did before. Comparing MNKD to DNDN is also rather silly. Do you really know anything about Provenge or did you just pick DNDN because it fits your negative narrative? My original post was an estimate of breakeven point. I invited others on this Board to chime in and add knowledge. You contributed by pointing out that my estimate for MNKD losses under the SNY agreement was more like $175 mln rather than my $50 mln estimate. Let's work the simple math. If Afrezza's FY losses are $175 mln, and the corporate burn rate is $90 mln/yr in addition, it means breakeven is $265 mln. It is reasonable to estimate $500 mln as the sales needed to generate this type of cash flow. This is only breakeven on cash burn. It dos not mean MNKD shows a profit. On the other hand, you view $265 mln and say that sales need to be only $200 mln to show cash flow positive on Afrezza. And let the rest of MNKD run out of cash and go belly up. Is this reasonable? I know a lot about the Provenge story.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 10:42:45 GMT -5
mnkdmorelong, As was established on a different thread, your $500 million number was virtually meaningless. Your starting point was off by 250% and you moved from $300 to $500 in a matter of minutes. Now you use that silly number as if it means something. Before you ask others to come up with a better number, you should first generate a better number yourself, one you can justify far better than you did before. Comparing MNKD to DNDN is also rather silly. Do you really know anything about Provenge or did you just pick DNDN because it fits your negative narrative? My original post was an estimate of breakeven point. I invited others on this Board to chime in and add knowledge. You contributed by pointing out that my estimate for MNKD losses under the SNY agreement was more like $175 mln rather than my $50 mln estimate. Let's work the simple math. If Afrezza's FY losses are $175 mln, and the corporate burn rate is $90 mln/yr in addition, it means breakeven is $265 mln. It is reasonable to estimate $500 mln as the sales needed to generate this type of cash flow. This is only breakeven on cash burn. It dos not mean MNKD shows a profit. On the other hand, you view $265 mln and say that sales need to be only $200 mln to show cash flow positive on Afrezza. And let the rest of MNKD run out of cash and go belly up. Is this reasonable? I know a lot about the Provenge story. Afrezza's FY losses are $175 mln - This can be cut down by a percentage as that 175mil includes premium as Sanofi is big pharma and costs run higher. Launch costs also higher but should be less now. they have VP's / directors / international team working on Afrezza which can be cost adjusted.. Corporate costs run 120 mil... Pharma margin in US can be more than 70% Cut the price to less than injectables - insurance will force patients to Afrezza Lets wait and see what Mannkind comes up with
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