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Post by lorcan458 on Jan 8, 2016 10:48:39 GMT -5
If I were Mr. DeSisto and saw the amount of already manufactured inventory I was warehousing, I'd consider a 2016 special price of 10% lower than injectables. Insurance companies will see the results as will doctors and then a fair price can be negotiated to remain on tier 2 from 2017 forward.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 10:54:33 GMT -5
If I were Mr. DeSisto and saw the amount of already manufactured inventory I was warehousing, I'd consider a 2016 special price of 10% lower than injectables. Insurance companies will see the results as will doctors and then a fair price can be negotiated to remain on tier 2 from 2017 forward. exactly |
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Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 8, 2016 10:58:48 GMT -5
My original post was an estimate of breakeven point. I invited others on this Board to chime in and add knowledge. You contributed by pointing out that my estimate for MNKD losses under the SNY agreement was more like $175 mln rather than my $50 mln estimate. Let's work the simple math. If Afrezza's FY losses are $175 mln, and the corporate burn rate is $90 mln/yr in addition, it means breakeven is $265 mln. It is reasonable to estimate $500 mln as the sales needed to generate this type of cash flow. This is only breakeven on cash burn. It dos not mean MNKD shows a profit. On the other hand, you view $265 mln and say that sales need to be only $200 mln to show cash flow positive on Afrezza. And let the rest of MNKD run out of cash and go belly up. Is this reasonable? I know a lot about the Provenge story. Afrezza's FY losses are $175 mln - This can be cut down by a percentage as that 175mil includes premium as Sanofi is big pharma and costs run higher. Launch costs also higher but should be less now. they have VP's / directors / international team working on Afrezza which can be cost adjusted.. Corporate costs run 120 mil... Pharma margin in US can be more than 70% Cut the price to less than injectables - insurance will force patients to Afrezza Lets wait and see what Mannkind comes up with A single product sales force is very costly. The salesperson has only one product to earn commissions on. It is very difficult to recruit under these circumstances. Have you ever seen salespeople whine about their comp plan? A single product sales force will cost more. SNY's having many products is cheaper. Plus they are trained and have the relationships. As a rule of thumb, sales and marketing typically cost 20% of sales. A single product sales force will cost more as described above. It will not be easy. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 11:01:18 GMT -5
Afrezza's FY losses are $175 mln - This can be cut down by a percentage as that 175mil includes premium as Sanofi is big pharma and costs run higher. Launch costs also higher but should be less now. they have VP's / directors / international team working on Afrezza which can be cost adjusted.. Corporate costs run 120 mil... Pharma margin in US can be more than 70% Cut the price to less than injectables - insurance will force patients to Afrezza Lets wait and see what Mannkind comes up with A single product sales force is very costly. The salesperson has only one product to earn commissions on. It is very difficult to recruit under these circumstances. Have you ever seen salespeople whine about their comp plan? A single product sales force will cost more. SNY's having many products is cheaper. Plus they are trained and have the relationships. As a rule of thumb, sales and marketing typically cost 20% of sales. A single product sales force will cost more as described above. It will not be easy. You are changing the context now. A single product sales force can be effective 100% as their efforts are concentrated. we know its not easy. For every thing, there is negative scenario. which u r highlighting. may be i am positive looking and you are negative nelly. |
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Post by greg on Jan 8, 2016 11:06:58 GMT -5
mnkdmorelong, As was established on a different thread, your $500 million number was virtually meaningless. Your starting point was off by 250% and you moved from $300 to $500 in a matter of minutes. Now you use that silly number as if it means something. Before you ask others to come up with a better number, you should first generate a better number yourself, one you can justify far better than you did before. Comparing MNKD to DNDN is also rather silly. Do you really know anything about Provenge or did you just pick DNDN because it fits your negative narrative? My original post was an estimate of breakeven point. I invited others on this Board to chime in and add knowledge. You contributed by pointing out that my estimate for MNKD losses under the SNY agreement was more like $175 mln rather than my $50 mln estimate. Let's work the simple math. If Afrezza's FY losses are $175 mln, and the corporate burn rate is $90 mln/yr in addition, it means breakeven is $265 mln. It is reasonable to estimate $500 mln as the sales needed to generate this type of cash flow. This is only breakeven on cash burn. It dos not mean MNKD shows a profit. On the other hand, you view $265 mln and say that sales need to be only $200 mln to show cash flow positive on Afrezza. And let the rest of MNKD run out of cash and go belly up. Is this reasonable? I know a lot about the Provenge story. You're extremely careless with your words, just as you are with the numbers. The $175 million was the loss to the Afrezza jv, not to MNKD. You should also keep in mind that the jv was supporting both SNY's large infrastructure and heavy launch costs. The costs should decline going forward. Now, doing the simple math, lets, for argument's sake, accept the $265 million breakeven, which is based on last year's revenues of $10 million. How do you jump to the conclusion that sales of $500 million would be necessary to essentially reach breakeven as a corporation? Are you suggesting gross margins would be in the neighborhood of only 50%. Getting back to your careless use of words, first, I have no idea what "you view $265 mln" means and second, where exactly did I say "sales need to be only $200 mln to show cash flow positive on Afrezza?" I did imply that sales of $220 million would be more reasonable to get to breakeven, and this based on the costs that derived from SNY's cost structure. I fully acknowledge this ignores MNKD's other costs, but, as I noted, getting Affrezza sales to rise meaningfully would give the company many more financing options. At this point Afrezza sales dictate everything. Your response also completely disregards both the fact that your $500 million, for whatever it's worth, was derived from a ridiculously incorrect starting point. Given the fact that you do acknowledge having gotten that number completely wrong, how do you justify staying with $500 million? Your conclusion also completely disregards the benefits of operating leverage inherent in the drug industry. As noted yesterday, even discussing your $500 million number is an exercise in futility, given 1. Your erroneous starting point; 2. Your shifting from $300 million to $500 million in minutes; and 3. All the other errors in your methodology. If you want to sow further doubt and misery, it's time to come up with something else. |
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Post by cjc04 on Jan 8, 2016 11:19:45 GMT -5
My concern with the sales force issue, is that if we thought we were going against BP before, with SNY selling, using their relationships, and still getting shunned by endo's, then how can we possibly get any docs or endo's to listen once they have the SNY reps piling on against us too?
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 8, 2016 11:23:33 GMT -5
My original post was an estimate of breakeven point. I invited others on this Board to chime in and add knowledge. You contributed by pointing out that my estimate for MNKD losses under the SNY agreement was more like $175 mln rather than my $50 mln estimate. Let's work the simple math. If Afrezza's FY losses are $175 mln, and the corporate burn rate is $90 mln/yr in addition, it means breakeven is $265 mln. It is reasonable to estimate $500 mln as the sales needed to generate this type of cash flow. This is only breakeven on cash burn. It dos not mean MNKD shows a profit. On the other hand, you view $265 mln and say that sales need to be only $200 mln to show cash flow positive on Afrezza. And let the rest of MNKD run out of cash and go belly up. Is this reasonable? I know a lot about the Provenge story. You're extremely careless with your words, just as you are with the numbers. The $175 million was the loss to the Afrezza jv, not to MNKD. You should also keep in mind that the jv was supporting both SNY's large infrastructure and heavy launch costs. The costs should decline going forward. Now, doing the simple math, lets, for argument's sake, accept the $265 million breakeven, which is based on last year's revenues of $10 million. How do you jump to the conclusion that sales of $500 million would be necessary to essentially reach breakeven as a corporation? Are you suggesting gross margins would be in the neighborhood of only 50%. Getting back to your careless use of words, first, I have no idea what "you view $265 mln" means and second, where exactly did I say "sales need to be only $200 mln to show cash flow positive on Afrezza?" I did imply that sales of $220 million would be more reasonable to get to breakeven, and this based on the costs that derived from SNY's cost structure. I fully acknowledge this ignores MNKD's other costs, but, as I noted, getting Affrezza sales to rise meaningfully would give the company many more financing options. At this point Afrezza sales dictate everything. Your response also completely disregards both the fact that your $500 million, for whatever it's worth, was derived from a ridiculously incorrect starting point. Given the fact that you do acknowledge having gotten that number completely wrong, how do you justify staying with $500 million? Your conclusion also completely disregards the benefits of operating leverage inherent in the drug industry. As noted yesterday, even discussing your $500 million number is an exercise in futility, given 1. Your erroneous starting point; 2. Your shifting from $300 million to $500 million in minutes; and 3. All the other errors in your methodology. If you want to sow further doubt and misery, it's time to come up with something else. It is easy to be a message board armchair CEO and financial analyst. I am not sure why Mannkind didn't come here to pick one from here to be the CEO since it is obvious this place has the answer. How stupid are you and I to think this isn't just as simple as pricing. It's like me telling my wife that I fully understand her gender. |
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Post by greg on Jan 8, 2016 11:29:12 GMT -5
mindovermatter,
you may be absolutely right. the simple solution may simply be to slash prices, get improved insurance coverage, and spend spend spend on television advertising.
i've seen ads for toenail fungus medication, why none for Afrezza?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 11:36:30 GMT -5
mindovermatter, you may be absolutely right. the simple solution may simply be to slash prices, get improved insurance coverage, and spend spend spend on television advertising. i've seen ads for toenail fungus medication, why none for Afrezza?If you meant by SNY - they didnt wanted cos they knew they were cutting Afrezza |
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Post by greg on Jan 8, 2016 11:55:19 GMT -5
No, I didn't mean by Sanofi.
I'm simply pointing out that it's time to start advertising Afrezza. If it's economical to televise ads for toenail fungus medication, then it's time to start broadcasting the many wonders of Afrezza.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 11:59:31 GMT -5
No, I didn't mean by Sanofi. I'm simply pointing out that it's time to start advertising Afrezza. If it's economical to televise ads for toenail fungus medication, then it's time to start broadcasting the many wonders of Afrezza. you forgot $$$ and claims are bound by label... |
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Post by greg on Jan 8, 2016 12:07:37 GMT -5
No, I didn't mean by Sanofi. I'm simply pointing out that it's time to start advertising Afrezza. If it's economical to televise ads for toenail fungus medication, then it's time to start broadcasting the many wonders of Afrezza. you forgot $$$ and claims are bound by label... I didn't forget either issue. I wasn't being completely serious. But, a new partner, assuming one is found, should start very quickly with an aggressive dtc campaign. In fact, wouldn't it be nice if SNY, meeting its obligations, put some money into really increasing patient awareness before making a graceful exit! As for being bound by label, all drugs are bound by their labels and most are advertised. No probs here. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 12:39:30 GMT -5
No, I didn't mean by Sanofi. I'm simply pointing out that it's time to start advertising Afrezza. If it's economical to televise ads for toenail fungus medication, then it's time to start broadcasting the many wonders of Afrezza. Would tier 2 be a prerequisite for massive advertising? |
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Post by kc on Jan 8, 2016 13:38:36 GMT -5
mindovermatter, you may be absolutely right. the simple solution may simply be to slash prices, get improved insurance coverage, and spend spend spend on television advertising. i've seen ads for toenail fungus medication, why none for Afrezza? Infomercials..... but seriously Mannkind needs to be thinking viral marking on Facebook and various pay per click links. The can do it now but it would more effective if they had a sales and distribution network to support the sales that might come from it. They also need to start direct marking to all potential doctors and let them know about the product, the facts of how to get it for their patients, what to expect for the next six months to twelve months for existing patients and new patients. Make access to information very easy for the doctors, patients 24-7. Mannkind needs to have a respectable trade show booth presence at all industry events. They don't need the big mega both but it needs to be fitting of their company size. i have to beleive they are already on top of getting these thing going. |
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Post by goyocafe on Jan 8, 2016 16:15:03 GMT -5
mindovermatter, you may be absolutely right. the simple solution may simply be to slash prices, get improved insurance coverage, and spend spend spend on television advertising. i've seen ads for toenail fungus medication, why none for Afrezza? Infomercials..... but seriously Mannkind needs to be thinking viral marking on Facebook and various pay per click links. The can do it now but it would more effective if they had a sales and distribution network to support the sales that might come from it. They also need to start direct marking to all potential doctors and let them know about the product, the facts of how to get it for their patients, what to expect for the next six months to twelve months for existing patients and new patients. Make access to information very easy for the doctors, patients 24-7. Mannkind needs to have a respectable trade show booth presence at all industry events. They don't need the big mega both but it needs to be fitting of their company size. i have to beleive they are already on top of getting these thing going. I hope they track every avenue they embark on that wasn't touched by SNY so there is evidence of just how lax SNYs efforts were. Not that a legal claim is first in line, but if they survive this, I'd still want them to go after SNY. |
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