Where is the confidence

[thekindaguyiyam]

I've got plenty as I'm watching this traditional event when the company gets slapped around just before it wins the fight.  Today MNKD fluctuated between 5.94 & 6.17 ending @ 6.13 down .06  /  -.97%

Meanwhile the MNKD May 17th Calls/ 6.00 strike closing at @ 2.10     up +2.78%  
The January 2015 calls/ $10.00 strike up +2.98%

Lot's of volatility.  The stock shares are shouting Sell.  The stock futures are yelling Buy.  FDA 4/15/2014
AdCom should deliver the message prior to FDA.  One way or another it's been a hell of a ride.

For the record; I have lots of shares and lots of calls and I'm holding on firmly to both.   

Iyam

[BD]

I must be confident, given the leaps I've been buying hand-over-fist for the past few trading days, lol

[thekindaguyiyam]

the futures would be down as well if there were no confidence.
the stock price fluctuation is beating it down as best they can before an event;
with that kill article being left at the top of the list in the media to scare investors.
Those who are investing in what takes place after the FDA April 15th date have a different view that those buying and selling stock today. Just a little confirmation in the midst of a storm.

[babaoriley]

Something else to consider - a common strategy at this point if you think we will get a significant bump on favorable AdCom and then FDA approval, would be to sell your shares, and replace them with calls at a strike price higher than today's price. So, you sell your shares, and replace with calls of strike $9 or $10 (you pick the month). Usually, you can do that transaction and pocket some money just in case, and you lose the upside from $6 to your strike price. I did it before the second CRL, and it worked well enough to minimize my losses. But remember, we had more room then, as the price was about $11 or so, and I think I sold the stock and bought $13 or so strikes. So, that could be a small part of the share weakness.

The other thing is, dare I say it, the market does it's very best to confound those that over-think it; I am an over-thinker of the first degree - not about the technology, as no amount of thinking could put me in a position to figure things out from that perspective. But trying to guess how the market will react to various results, now that's what I find fun and fascinating. And I also find that when I become firmly convinced of a direction and/or magnitude, I am continually surprised. So, watch out, I have been firmly convinced for a long time that our stock will rise into the AdCom meeting, and to be safe, into the release of the AdCom briefing document, at which point some longs will be tested by the stuff that will be written about that briefing, trying to scare every long they can.

Just based on a few comments not only here, but on the general Yahoo board, I think many plan to sell a portion of their shares just prior to AdCom - I'm hopeful there are others willing to take a chance for a larger payday based on a very successful AdCom. I have been calling for a price of $7.50 to $8.00 by March 28 or so. I would like to be surprised the right way, for a change!!

[alcc]

"The stock futures are yelling Buy."

Absolutely right. Just look at the put/call straddle. Example: Aug $4 put $1.21; $8 call $1.99. Jan $2 put $0.43; $10 call $1.70.

[thekindaguyiyam]

There was no "event" today. Nothing on News.google in the last hour or 24 hours to run down the price. I bought some 25 more calls though, that was prior to the price tanking. We know how tight lipped this company is about it's corporate requirements prior to AdCom and April 15th. All smoke an mirrors. Today like every day.. I'll buy a call at the premium it gets purchased and replaced with a bid 12 -15 cents lower... this goes on and on. I ran out of money today and took a hard hit. My confidence unshaken unlike the efforts of the shorts to shake it as best as they can.