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Concern
Jan 20, 2016 12:39:10 GMT -5
Post by bearcatmax on Jan 20, 2016 12:39:10 GMT -5
Should we be concerned of De-listing?
I am long, just curious. I know they will have time but if they can't get the PPS up over the course of the year, this could become a concern or would they just do a reverse split?
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Concern
Jan 20, 2016 12:47:53 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2016 12:47:53 GMT -5
No, if they cant get price up over a buck in the next 12 months we have much deeper issues at hand
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Post by lakon on Jan 20, 2016 12:58:33 GMT -5
De-listing is not so bad when the market treats you like trash anyway. I had a few hypothetical scenarios that would make it extremely advantageous, but a higher price would be better and more likely. Who knows? It sure would be a stealthy maneuver into Israel.
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Concern
Jan 20, 2016 14:01:03 GMT -5
Post by bearcatmax on Jan 20, 2016 14:01:03 GMT -5
No, if they cant get price up over a buck in the next 12 months we have much deeper issues at hand I agree. I am also of the mindset that it might take MNKD a year to get solid cash wise. I really am hoping they get a nice settlement from Sanofi. Would surely get this back over $1 instantly. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 20, 2016 14:07:48 GMT -5
Should we be concerned of De-listing? I am long, just curious. I know they will have time but if they can't get the PPS up over the course of the year, this could become a concern or would they just do a reverse split? No, nothing to be worried about YET. Besides, the shorts won't let it get delisted. They are having too much fun shorting it. They'll have a much harder time shorting it if it gets delisted. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2016 16:13:56 GMT -5
delisting isn't a risk for quite a while. Used to be at least 6 months below 1/share and then the company would get a warning letter that they are heading toward delisting. That buys a few more months and can be in that state for a while. I haven't researched this in years and the rules may have changed. The larger concern first is their cash position followed by increasing sales. I would put delisting pretty far down the list of risks at this point.
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Post by bioexec25 on Jan 20, 2016 16:50:29 GMT -5
delisting isn't a risk for quite a while. Used to be at least 6 months below 1/share and then the company would get a warning letter that they are heading toward delisting. That buys a few more months and can be in that state for a while. I haven't researched this in years and the rules may have changed. The larger concern first is their cash position followed by increasing sales. I would put delisting pretty far down the list of risks at this point. I agree de-listing not near the top of the risk map. Speaking of which, what are the top 3 risks? Anyone? My top 3 are: 1) Failure to drive a robust transition execution - Communication to avoid attrition of Docs and Patients giving up on the future of Afrezza. No more SNY market cap support and news travels fast 2) Not getting ahead of the solvency issues to get beyond a 6-12 mth BK risk - dragging out deal negotiations more than 3 months 3) No immediate formation and execution of a sales and marketing strategy for Afrezza. |
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 13:18:25 GMT -5
delisting isn't a risk for quite a while. Used to be at least 6 months below 1/share and then the company would get a warning letter that they are heading toward delisting. That buys a few more months and can be in that state for a while. I haven't researched this in years and the rules may have changed. The larger concern first is their cash position followed by increasing sales. I would put delisting pretty far down the list of risks at this point. I agree de-listing not near the top of the risk map. Speaking of which, what are the top 3 risks? Anyone? My top 3 are: 1) Failure to drive a robust transition execution - Communication to avoid attrition of Docs and Patients giving up on the future of Afrezza. No more SNY market cap support and news travels fast2) Not getting ahead of the solvency issues to get beyond a 6-12 mth BK risk - dragging out deal negotiations more than 3 months 3) No immediate formation and execution of a sales and marketing strategy for Afrezza. Agree those are real risks. On point one what are the best ways to provide comfort to the existing prescribing doctors? A letter from Mannkind confirming Mannkind's commitment and Matt's personal commitment (as the CEO) to keep Afrezza on the market for the long term? Followed by a phone call from Mannkind communicating the same? Followed by a visit of a rep from Mannkind reconfirming the same, with plenty of samples of Afrezza (maybe this is too expensive for Mannkind to do now or maybe not)? What are your thoughts? |
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 21, 2016 13:31:31 GMT -5
As part of the transition, I imagine that MannKind will contract an independent firm to take pharmacy orders that were previously placed with Sanofi. Once an intermediary has been contracted, MannKind (or its intermediary) will contact all pharmacies to inform them of where they can place orders for Afrezza. The company will simply ship Afrezza from its Danbury facility or other warehouse.
To help ensure a smooth transition, Sanofi will likely agree to forward any future orders. Aside from a change in contact information that they plug into their databases, pharmacies shouldn't see any change in processing their orders, IMO.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 13:47:22 GMT -5
Do the existing doctors need more direct contact and confirmation from Mannkind regarding Mannkind's commitment to support Afrezza long term?
We know that Matt has stated that in the JPM presentation, but that probably is not sufficient. The doctors may not know the details of the transition. All they know maybe that Sanofi is dropping Afrezza.
As the Sanofi Afrezza reps quietly disappearing into the background, and with Afrezza samples run out, I believe physiologically it would help a lot if each of the existing Afrezza prescribing doctor receives a letter, a package of Afrezza samples, a call and/or a personal visit from a Mannkind rep describing in details the transition process and reassuring them of Mannkind's commitment to support Afrezza long term.
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Post by bioexec25 on Jan 21, 2016 14:11:22 GMT -5
Compound - Those mitigations sound good indeed. One thing I don't have a feel for is the true demand vs the slow effort by Sny. We can't afford to spend a ton of cash right now but if demand would support we absolutely need to really get after sales. Cash flow and steadily growing scripts is the ultimate risk mitigation. I don't know the details of winding down the deal but no time waste. If this sp & sales struggle for yet another quarter it's going to get very tough for Mnkd.
Like you said, in the meantime, frequent communications will definitely help relieve some concerns.
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