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Post by greg on Jan 22, 2016 15:25:32 GMT -5
Seems like just yesterday when gs and others were saying that technosphere had absolutely no value. In fact, the share price also suggests that it has no value. So, how can any deal for Ti be seen negatively?? Some other entity, controlled by folks who obviously weren't born yesterday (even if the entity was), thinks there's value and is willing to shell out $100 million, plus royalties. By all indications, those same folks have a portfolio of products plus the wherewithal to shell out those $100 million. As for lack of details, who can blame MNKD and the partner, given the never ending crap that the haters continue to spew. Also, contrary to what some are saying, it's a nonexclusive deal, meaning that the company is hardly giving away the store.
As to those haters, it's obvious the vast majority, if not all, are associated with institutions. How else to comprehend their persistence when MNKD shares are trading where they're trading. If the price were higher, then it would be understandable for little retail investors to continue hammering away. As to what kind of institutions these minions work for and their ultimate motivations, one can only speculate. But it's hard to believe that they're working day and night just to make a few more pennies.
And while I'm at it, I must say I hate seeing all those toujeo ads. I've never disliked a company, but I must admit I'm getting there with sny.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 22, 2016 15:39:17 GMT -5
Seems like just yesterday when gs and others were saying that technosphere had absolutely no value. In fact, the share price also suggests that it has no value. So, how can any deal for Ti be seen negatively?? Some other entity, controlled by folks who obviously weren't born yesterday (even if the entity was), thinks there's value and is willing to shell out $100 million, plus royalties. By all indications, those same folks have a portfolio of products plus the wherewithal to shell out those $100 million. As for lack of details, who can blame MNKD and the partner, given the never ending crap that the haters continue to spew. Also, contrary to what some are saying, it's a nonexclusive deal, meaning that the company is hardly giving away the store. As to those haters, it's obvious the vast majority, if not all, are associated with institutions. How else to comprehend their persistence when MNKD shares are trading where they're trading. If the price were higher, then it would be understandable for little retail investors to continue hammering away. As to what kind of institutions these minions work for and their ultimate motivations, one can only speculate. But it's hard to believe that they're working day and night just to make a few more pennies. And while I'm at it, I must say I hate seeing all those toujeo ads. I've never disliked a company, but I must admit I'm getting there with sny. i don't think it is seen negatively more so that it is seen as being a non event being that nothing is known about the partnering company and that Mannkind got no up front money. I think if Mannkind received a few hundred million dollars up front, Wall Street would use that as a way to evaluate the importance of the deal. No up front money means the deal wasn't that important to the street. Wall St is all about "show us the money." Mannkind has yet to show anyone anything.
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Post by greg on Jan 22, 2016 15:55:08 GMT -5
"i don't think it is seen negatively more so that it is seen as being a non event being that nothing is known about the partnering company and that Mannkind got no up front money. I think if Mannkind received a few hundred million dollars up front, Wall Street would use that as a way to evaluate the importance of the deal. No up front money means the deal wasn't that important to the street. Wall St is all about "show us the money." Mannkind has yet to show anyone anything." (edited to add quotation marks)
Mindovermatter,
Just out of curiosity, how do you see it? Getting away from Wall Street, which, collectively, hasn't liked anything MNKD has done for years, how do you see the deal? Was it a net negative, net positive, or a nonevent? Is the company, not its stock, better off with the deal or without the deal? We know very little about the partner, but how many people out there evaluate something for months, assuming this is the deal Hakan talked about several months ago, go to the trouble of setting up a new entity, and sign an agreement that obligates them for something, exactly what still to be determined?
When Desisto's hiring was announced last month, one of those haters rushed out to publish a horrible piece trashing Desisto, muting any positive impact. I've seen a fair amount of negative commentary about this deal, even though very little is known about it. Why? Does it hurt the company in any way?
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Post by nadathing on Jan 22, 2016 16:42:43 GMT -5
I view this as a non-event. The Tolero "partnership" was signed in April, 2012. Have we seen any of the 150 million that the deal was supposedly worth? I believe the pps also went down in the days following that announcement. Money in hand talks. We need cash.
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Post by lorcan458 on Jan 22, 2016 17:05:56 GMT -5
There are a lot of questions:
1. If Mannkind is really worth 80 cents a share, why is it so persistently and vehemently fought against? 2. What other stock has a bid and ask 1/100th of a penny apart? 3. Who stacks 500,000 shares on the ask to suppress the price by a penny or two? 4. What other prescription drug has people so enthusiastic about it they make their own commercials online, go on walking tours, make t-shirts, post their results all over twitter? The disconnect between effectiveness of the drug, when dosed correctly, and the perception in the mainstream marketplace (insurance, label) has got to be the largest discrepancy in pharmaceutical history. 5. How can shorts not cover en masse at well under a dollar and take their profits and move on to the more profitable targets on WS? It doesn't make economic sense.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Jan 22, 2016 17:26:32 GMT -5
I can add another one: What is the master plan to resolve 47% short interest? Is bankruptcy still so certain that shorts take that risk? And what is plan B?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2016 17:54:24 GMT -5
The perfect saying for this deal is "damned if they do and damned if they dont"
If MNKD doesn't release info we are going out of business. If they do the short thesis is its Al Mans company and they are trying to transfer XYZ to him
We needed a deal but given everything that has unfolded over the past 6 months and how much everyone is down its pretty tough to swallow not knowing anything about the company besides a forest and MNKD's press release description
IMO This deal is purely faith based because of the unknowns. I have no issues with no upfront money and given their current situation they really cant ask for any. This is a groupon deal.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2016 17:55:48 GMT -5
I can add another one: What is the master plan to resolve 47% short interest? Is bankruptcy still so certain that shorts take that risk? And what is plan B? Afrezza Sales or the delusional partners that are discussed on YMB that are already done deals
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2016 17:58:57 GMT -5
WS makes money on Volatility and how much they can sqeeze.. I think the retail and insiders own too much of MNKD that they are not able to shake the tree.. But when they start on the other side, I guess we see it rip on the long side as it did it crashing down
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Post by stevil on Jan 22, 2016 18:06:16 GMT -5
The perfect saying for this deal is "damned if they do and damned if they dont" If MNKD doesn't release info we are going out of business. If they do the short thesis is its Al Mans company and they are trying to transfer XYZ to him We needed a deal but given everything that has unfolded over the past 6 months and how much everyone is down its pretty tough to swallow not knowing anything about the company besides a forest and MNKD's press release description IMO This deal is purely faith based because of the unknowns. I have no issues with no upfront money and given their current situation they really cant ask for any. This is a groupon deal. As others have eluded to but haven't explicitly stated, I'll try to answer one part of the original questions- So, how can any deal for Ti be seen negatively? Here are the options- Great! We landed a deal and we're going to make some money in the upcoming years! It's not a bunch, but every little bit helps! Neutral- this deal doesn't really help or hurt the company. The technology is there, might as well profit off of it, but it's not going to be the savior of the company. Negative- There might have been a loss of potential with the deal. With drugs on standby, we now know about how lucrative they will be and it might not have been on as good of terms as the street had hoped. So just because there was a deal made, no one really got excited about it because now we have fewer drugs (and options) to reach our immediate needs. Then, on top of that, we now have a glimpse behind the curtain of what payers think about TS currently. So to some, it may have shown them that Afrezza is still basically MNKD's only hope. In our CEO's own language, he stated that he's hoping that we can stay alive long enough for Afrezza to catch traction. So if they didn't think Afrezza was going to do it before, now they really have fewer things to fear since it's unlikely anything else can or will in the near term.
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Post by lorcan458 on Jan 22, 2016 18:17:14 GMT -5
WS makes money on Volatility and how much they can sqeeze.. I think the retail and insiders own too much of MNKD that they are not able to shake the tree.. But when they start on the other side, I guess we see it rip on the long side as it did it crashing down Here's the part I don't understand... 1. What long, who is still long, is going to sell anywhere near this level? Almost none. 2. Short interest isn't moving in a significant way, percentage-wise. To me, that doesn't make economic sense. You have to close your position to book the profit. There have been months of low prices where a few million shares a day could have been covered, unless the shorts are really just selling among themselves to drive the SP down so Mannkind can't finance with an offering (like TASE). Are the shorts betting they can mechanically hold the SP down AND that Mannkind doesn't have other options besides dilution to raise money? That doesn't sound realistic to me. It's as if the shorts are willing to throw away money to cause Mannkind difficulty, rather than simply playing the market. There are so many more attractive stocks to short than Mannkind at 80 cents. There is a REAL possibility that someone like Bill Gates or Paul Allen could instantaneously inject 5 years of operating capital with no one knowing about it beforehand except Al. The danger seems extreme for shorts, but they aren't playing it that way. 3. How are the shorts who are in now not afraid of some other greedy hedge fund coming in and causing a short-term spike for a quick profit? It's a big, greedy world out there. For a few million, a rival hedge could spark a runup and take the profits right away, most likely scaring some shorts into covering in case it's the big run we all expect to eventually happen.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 22, 2016 18:35:44 GMT -5
Seems like just yesterday when gs and others were saying that technosphere had absolutely no value. In fact, the share price also suggests that it has no value. So, how can any deal for Ti be seen negatively?? Some other entity, controlled by folks who obviously weren't born yesterday (even if the entity was), thinks there's value and is willing to shell out $100 million, plus royalties. By all indications, those same folks have a portfolio of products plus the wherewithal to shell out those $100 million. As for lack of details, who can blame MNKD and the partner, given the never ending crap that the haters continue to spew. Also, contrary to what some are saying, it's a nonexclusive deal, meaning that the company is hardly giving away the store. As to those haters, it's obvious the vast majority, if not all, are associated with institutions. How else to comprehend their persistence when MNKD shares are trading where they're trading. If the price were higher, then it would be understandable for little retail investors to continue hammering away. As to what kind of institutions these minions work for and their ultimate motivations, one can only speculate. But it's hard to believe that they're working day and night just to make a few more pennies. And while I'm at it, I must say I hate seeing all those toujeo ads. I've never disliked a company, but I must admit I'm getting there with sny. I think it is as simple as making $$$. There is still around $100M open short interest. That is a significant amount of profit to be had if MNKD goes bankrupt. I doubt any of the traders or funds shorting MNKD are working day and night just on it... they likely are happily diversifying their pain over a portfolio of target companies.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 22, 2016 18:45:09 GMT -5
I can add another one: What is the master plan to resolve 47% short interest? Is bankruptcy still so certain that shorts take that risk? And what is plan B? Shorts are sitting on HUGE profits already. They still have about $100M more profit if MNKD does go bankrupt... or simply goes lower. GS does apparently have $0.25 target. I suspect they think even on good news this isn't going to race out of control. Short of some unicorn, it will take some time and probably multiple accomplishments to get MNKD solidly back on a growth path with no looming insolvency risk... so shorts are probably balancing the risk of losing some of their profits if the stock goes back to $1.5 or $2 on some near term accomplishments vs going to $0.25 or $0. Maybe it simply looks like a good risk/reward in their eyes and think that any real risk of short squeeze is a long way off.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 22, 2016 18:55:34 GMT -5
WS makes money on Volatility and how much they can sqeeze.. I think the retail and insiders own too much of MNKD that they are not able to shake the tree.. But when they start on the other side, I guess we see it rip on the long side as it did it crashing down Here's the part I don't understand... 1. What long, who is still long, is going to sell anywhere near this level? Almost none. 2. Short interest isn't moving in a significant way, percentage-wise. To me, that doesn't make economic sense. You have to close your position to book the profit. There have been months of low prices where a few million shares a day could have been covered, unless the shorts are really just selling among themselves to drive the SP down so Mannkind can't finance with an offering (like TASE). Are the shorts betting they can mechanically hold the SP down AND that Mannkind doesn't have other options besides dilution to raise money? That doesn't sound realistic to me. It's as if the shorts are willing to throw away money to cause Mannkind difficulty, rather than simply playing the market. There are so many more attractive stocks to short than Mannkind at 80 cents. There is a REAL possibility that someone like Bill Gates or Paul Allen could instantaneously inject 5 years of operating capital with no one knowing about it beforehand except Al. The danger seems extreme for shorts, but they aren't playing it that way. 3. How are the shorts who are in now not afraid of some other greedy hedge fund coming in and causing a short-term spike for a quick profit? It's a big, greedy world out there. For a few million, a rival hedge could spark a runup and take the profits right away, most likely scaring some shorts into covering in case it's the big run we all expect to eventually happen. What exactly is your yardstick for judging something a "real" possibility? Granted the possibility of that would be more "real" than say a sarcastic comment of "unicorns bearing pots of gold", but it seems to be purely wishful thinking. I think MNKD would have long ago done a secondary if there were that much of an appetite for the shares. MNKD could buy a lottery ticket and have a non zero probability of having that solve their financial problems. At this point thinking some billionaire will ride in the rescue seems akin to the lottery ticket if not the unicorn. I certainly would not be worried about that if I were interested in shorting this stock. Matt has indicated they don't want to do share offering at these prices. At our current share price 5 years of operating capital would be HUGE, GINORMOUS dilution... and billionaires don't stay billionaires by offering to pay double the going price of everything they buy.
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Post by lorcan458 on Jan 22, 2016 19:24:06 GMT -5
By a "real" possibility I mean that Bill Gates and Al Mann know each other and the Gates Foundation is funding the inhaled oxytocin project using Technosphere. Obviously, Bill Gates knows a huge number of very wealthy people. If Bill (or any of the mega-millionaire club they associate with) BELIEVES what is being reported on Twitter AND they are given access to data proving that the Twitter reports are absolutely real and achievable when Afrezza is dosed correctly AND they get really pissed off at what WallStreet and Big Pharma have done to prevent Afrezza's widespread availablility AND they see not only a good cause but a potentially large financial payoff if they help get Mannkind out of its precarious position, they could pull the trigger on the deal over drinks at Al's house, with no warning whatsoever for the shorts to cover. They could wrap the deal in any terms they like...Mannkind donating expertise, services, etc. to a charitable cause, especially a generic drug for use in underdeveloped countries.
The other risk in staying short is that at any moment, a celebrity, a politician, someone like Gates could easily sing the praises of Afrezza to a huge audience. That danger is there every minute of every day. There is, in my opinion, ZERO probabability that all the reports of Afrezza's effectiveness on social media are fake. Given that, how the #$% aren't shorts terrified that any one of the following things could happen at any moment:
1. What I described already in this thread. 2. A large sale to a country that accepts FDA approval (many) or a country that can do whatever the heck they want to (middle east, etc.). 3. A hedge fund intiating a squeeze mechanically to coincide with news or rumors, possibly of their own creation.
The risk / reward seems so far on the risk side at 80 cents.
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