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Post by spiro on Mar 11, 2014 15:22:35 GMT -5
Up again, with a favorable AdCom, some sort of squeeze is inevitable. With the lighter volume lately, the days to cover is probably closer to 10 now. This should make the shorts a little uneasy, since they prefer this number to be around 4 or less. # avg vol days to cover 2/28/2014 59,244,446 8,143,101 7.275416 2/14/2014 58,118,039 5,938,771 9.786206 1/31/2014 57,387,598 6,549,011 8.762788 1/15/2014 51,450,894 11,687,637 4.402164 12/31/2013 47,463,406 4,039,868 11.748752 Read more: www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/short-interest#ixzz2vgfBYEuE |
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Post by harshal1981 on Mar 11, 2014 22:32:21 GMT -5
Of course this will give shorts one more ipportu ugh for scare mongering ...
All though I wonder what do we really make out if this ? Millions of shrew are shorted at $6-$7 so they must be expecting either 1) mix bag AdCom 2) FDA issuing two/three month extension or for that matter even two week extension would be enough to scare people by reminding events of last CRL. Not sure how low we can expect the share price to go ? It really amazes me how tough fight they are putting up here
I don't think shorts are so dumb to believe that MNKD is going to get 3rd CRL. ... I think they are hoping to make money on situational fears ...
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Post by harshal1981 on Mar 11, 2014 22:34:24 GMT -5
Some times I wonder why we don't get daily update on short interest ... Lack of such transperNcy is really a strong advantage for them
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Post by BD on Mar 11, 2014 22:49:21 GMT -5
Of course this will give shorts one more ipportu ugh for scare mongering ... . You mean, shorts can post "Look! The short interest is even higher! And shorts are usually right!" ? Well, I've learned a lot about how full of $#!t the statement, "Shorts are usually right" is, having been a GMCR long for 8 years. So screw 'em, they're full of it! |
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 11, 2014 23:00:13 GMT -5
Shorts are shrewd, but are often wrong; the thing is, when the are wrong, they have more tricks up their sleeves to pull than do longs when they are wrong!
I would say 80-85% likely for an FDA approval for Type 1; 70% for both Type 1 and 2.
As far as AdCom, I would say 80% chance of significant support (more than 70% vote to recommend approval for at least one indication).
65% chance of short delay in FDA decision, and if there is a delay, 75% chance it will be less than a month delay.
Longs real problem is shorts will find a way to delay our satisfaction even with approval; if not approved, shorts satisfaction will be so instantaneous, it will make all of our heads swim!
The above is how I see the cards being dealt and played out over the next month or two. The price to play is quite high!!
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Post by daleplatt on Mar 12, 2014 0:45:48 GMT -5
I honestly believe short interest can be manipulated by the very hedge funds that promote this type of position only to mislead the very shorts they promote, so that the very large hedge funds that encourage them can take full of advantage those they misled into being short in the first place.
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Post by Earl Grey on Mar 12, 2014 7:33:50 GMT -5
So can we assume that 60million short means there are conversely 320million long.
5X more long plays than short plays would be a good balance and supports an 80% chance of approval
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