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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 4, 2016 11:48:15 GMT -5
It seems we know that we have a funding gap that opens pretty quickly in second half. There is some money presumably end of year from RLS (giving benefit of doubt).
So MNKD share value would seem to hinge on the odds of one or more of these things happening to solve the H2 insolvency issue.
- Settlement with SNY - TS deal with upfront - Distribution deal for Afrezza in another country with upfront - Distribution deal for Afrezza in U.S. (or total sale of Afrezza) - Some other positive news that turns sentiment around enough to make raising capital in markets viable
So how do we weigh the situation? I'm assuming the optimists are attaching pretty high probabilities to each and every one of these and pessimists the opposite.
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Feb 4, 2016 11:59:07 GMT -5
Post by bearcatmax on Feb 4, 2016 11:59:07 GMT -5
I believe there is a good chance that MNKD gets a settlement from SNY. The amount? No idea.
I believe distribution deals will happen throughout 2H 2016. Not sure if there will even be any upfront money for these.
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Post by fedakd on Feb 4, 2016 12:02:44 GMT -5
Maybe MNKD will ask for the balance of the $725M owed. ie., $725M less any milestones paid. That would definitely shape up the balance sheet.
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Feb 4, 2016 12:06:53 GMT -5
Post by bearcatmax on Feb 4, 2016 12:06:53 GMT -5
Maybe MNKD will ask for the balance of the $725M owed. ie., $725M less any milestones paid. That would definitely shape up the balance sheet. That would be amazing and take the pressure of BK away and the shorts pressure would scram. 33% of remaining milestones would be 239.25 million. 25% of remaining milestones would be 181.25 million. I am hopeful that is there is a settlement, it is in that range.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 4, 2016 12:12:41 GMT -5
Maybe MNKD will ask for the balance of the $725M owed. ie., $725M less any milestones paid. That would definitely shape up the balance sheet. Simply asking doesn't do anything for the balance sheet. Getting anywhere near that amount would seem to me about as likely as MNKD finding a lottery ticket worth that much. Remember, there was a Joint Advisory Committee where all budgets and sales and marketing activities were approved by both companies. Unless there is some extremely unlikely smoking gun, such as an email from the new SNY CEO stating he wanted to sandbag Afrezza, the amount MNKD is likely to get is the equivalent of what companies routinely offer to employees they let go to get them to sign release documents when they have no reason to suspect there is any real risk.
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Feb 4, 2016 12:17:57 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 4, 2016 12:17:57 GMT -5
Maybe MNKD will ask for the balance of the $725M owed. ie., $725M less any milestones paid. That would definitely shape up the balance sheet. That would be amazing and take the pressure of BK away and the shorts pressure would scram. 33% of remaining milestones would be 239.25 million. 25% of remaining milestones would be 181.25 million. I am hopeful that is there is a settlement, it is in that range. Where do you get this hope from? Maybe I need to get the same prescription. Matt's comments about SNY certainly don't seem to indicate that he is asserting any malicious activity or serious missteps by SNY... quite the opposite. Do you believe MNKD is misleading shareholders? Why would SNY shell out that much money?
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Post by kc on Feb 4, 2016 12:26:24 GMT -5
The company will be sold. Everybody including retail shareholders know that they only way to get real funds with out dilution is sell the company or the Product. The company will survive as a wholly owned subsidiary of some big Pharma. Afrezza will become a Blockbuster drug and will be the Gold Standard for treatment for T1D, T2D and Pre-diabetes.
We can't expect to know much more than the can legally disclose as the risks are too great for Shareholder litigation and they want to make sure that they follow all the terms of their agreement with Sanofi so that they can claims any and all damages from Sanofi in a legal action. Both sides are working to mitigate their future exposure to each other. There is much much more going on behind the scenes that we will never know about since we are just retail investors. You either trust the process or get out now. I am solidly trusting they process as this product will be a winner if priced and marketed correctly.
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Post by fedakd on Feb 4, 2016 12:26:43 GMT -5
Because Sanofi did not conduct commercially reasonable efforts for sales of Afrezza.
If a judge was asked to compare the budget, advertising, and sales efforts for Toujeo against Afrezza we would find some OBVIOUS discrepancies. You don't think there is a smoking gun here at Sanofi after the Genzyme lawsuit? I believe there is.
Tell you this - I love patisseries and Americanos from Paris, but the french are scandalous in the BP business.
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 4, 2016 12:33:23 GMT -5
DBC, have you given up any hope of debt financing from Al? There's got to be some chance of that.
I finally listened to the conference call last night, it was fine. Would have loved to have heard better, but wasn't expecting it, so soon after last call. He touched very lightly on financing, so I hope that means he's got something in the works he can share at the quarterly call.
Lots of traders dumped their stock in AH, as they had only gotten in hoping for a revelation during this call - fat chance, they acted like rookies!
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Post by bearcatmax on Feb 4, 2016 12:52:16 GMT -5
That would be amazing and take the pressure of BK away and the shorts pressure would scram. 33% of remaining milestones would be 239.25 million. 25% of remaining milestones would be 181.25 million. I am hopeful that is there is a settlement, it is in that range. Where do you get this hope from? Maybe I need to get the same prescription. Matt's comments about SNY certainly don't seem to indicate that he is asserting any malicious activity or serious missteps by SNY... quite the opposite. Do you believe MNKD is misleading shareholders? Why would SNY shell out that much money? If Sanofi wants to every partner with other companies they need to do something for its partner. They did not hold up there end of the bargain. That's not hope, that is fact. They are already being sued by another partner. They don't want to be sued again. Odds are good they will throw MNKD a bone. Or else they face a second lawsuit. How good would that look to any potential partners? Just my view.
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Feb 4, 2016 13:00:50 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 4, 2016 13:00:50 GMT -5
DBC, have you given up any hope of debt financing from Al? There's got to be some chance of that. I finally listened to the conference call last night, it was fine. Would have loved to have heard better, but wasn't expecting it, so soon after last call. He touched very lightly on financing, so I hope that means he's got something in the works he can share at the quarterly call. Lots of traders dumped their stock in AH, as they had only gotten in hoping for a revelation during this call - fat chance, they acted like rookies! I suppose that could be added to the list. I guess I'm not considering that as probable, or if it does happen it will be very last resort to bridge the gap as they find some way to sell things off, saving Afrezza for patients but likely not leaving shareholders with much. If he really had the resources left and desire to do this, it seems the time has already come for him to have stepped in, such as dealing with the convertible debt.
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Feb 4, 2016 13:02:49 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 4, 2016 13:02:49 GMT -5
Where do you get this hope from? Maybe I need to get the same prescription. Matt's comments about SNY certainly don't seem to indicate that he is asserting any malicious activity or serious missteps by SNY... quite the opposite. Do you believe MNKD is misleading shareholders? Why would SNY shell out that much money? If Sanofi wants to every partner with other companies they need to do something for its partner. They did not hold up there end of the bargain. That's not hope, that is fact. They are already being sued by another partner. They don't want to be sued again. Odds are good they will throw MNKD a bone. Or else they face a second lawsuit. How good would that look to any potential partners? Just my view. They can point any potential partners to Matt's defense of SNY as a partner.
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Feb 4, 2016 13:20:38 GMT -5
Post by mnkdfann on Feb 4, 2016 13:20:38 GMT -5
If Sanofi wants to every partner with other companies they need to do something for its partner. They did not hold up there end of the bargain. That's not hope, that is fact. They are already being sued by another partner. They don't want to be sued again. Odds are good they will throw MNKD a bone. Or else they face a second lawsuit. How good would that look to any potential partners? Just my view. Would you please clarify this for me. WHICH former partner is suing Sanofi? Have you a link? American Stock Transfer & Trust Co, a legal (ambulance chasing?) firm, is suing Sanofi on behalf of former Genzyme rights holders. But the former partner Genzyme is most certainly NOT suing Sanofi. Indeed, Genzyme is a Sanofi subsidiary. www.bostonglobe.com/business/2015/11/09/sanofi-sued-over-development-multiple-sclerosis-drug/El1imaJnShEoRVa2ywpywJ/story.htmlI'm not sure American Stock Transfer & Trust Co is any better than the legal firms now suing Mannkind.
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Feb 4, 2016 15:12:26 GMT -5
liane likes this
Post by mnholdem on Feb 4, 2016 15:12:26 GMT -5
A trustee representing Genzyme rights holders sued Sanofi claiming it stalled the development of a multiple sclerosis drug to avoid paying at least $708 million.
Sanofi broke its 2011 merger agreement with Genzyme by failing to use “diligent efforts” to win regulatory approval and reach sales targets for the drug Lemtrada, the trustee, American Stock Transfer & Trust Co., said in a complaint filed Monday in Manhattan federal court.
The agreement specified that holders of Genzyme stock receive rights to $3.8 billion in payments if the drug reached certain milestones, including approval from the US Food and Drug Administration by March 31, 2014, according to the trustee.
“Sanofi took those potential milestone payments into account in evaluating Lemtrada’s profitability, embarked on a slow path to FDA approval and departed from its own drug commercialization patterns and those of others in the industry,” the trustee claimed in Monday’s complaint. “As a result, Sanofi missed the contractual milestones and skirted its payment obligations of at least $708 million.”
Mary Kathryn Steel, a Sanofi spokeswoman, didn’t immediately return a voice-mail message seeking comment on the suit.
Source: www.bostonglobe.com/business/2015/11/09/sanofi-sued-over-development-multiple-sclerosis-drug/El1imaJnShEoRVa2ywpywJ/story.html
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Post by matt on Feb 4, 2016 15:27:52 GMT -5
If a judge was asked to compare the budget, advertising, and sales efforts for Toujeo against Afrezza we would find some OBVIOUS discrepancies. The definition of commercially reasonable is not what you are implying. The effort must be commercially reasonable from the standpoint of Sanofi, and in making that evaluation they are allowed to look at their profit margins on Toujeo (where they keep 100% of gross margin) with Afrezza (where they kept 65% of the net profit on a drug with lower gross margins). Every business with more than one product has to make decisions about which is most likely to contribute to their business, and they put extra effort into the one with the most potential. Similarly, while Sanofi priced Afrezza higher than MNKD would have liked, maybe that is what they had to do in order to get their normal gross profit given that MNKD kept 35% of partnership profits.
Sanofi invested millions up-front to acquire the rights to the drug and then spent over $20 million dollars a month in 2015 to try and launch Afrezza. Do you really want to spend MNKD's remaining cash for lawyers to try and convince a judge that Sanofi's efforts were not serious?
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