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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 13, 2016 17:18:51 GMT -5
Well. Al Mann's health aside (as that is obviously fraught with conjecture and in my opinion pointless to even discuss, and it is likely (duh) that he has already addressed what to do in his absence..wow that's a stretch..sarcasm) why wouldn't the retiring or return of his shares be just as possible as any other scenario? Just maybe it is the most likely scenario? Listen, I'm not basing my continued investing strategy on that possibility but to me that very possibility is Mannkinds ace-in-the hole. Think about it from an obvious-looking Occam's Razor type point of view: AM owns how many common shares? Who would lose (as an individual) most in a BK..AM right? which kinda rules that option out right? To me it does. And finally, who would cement their legacy of helping diabetics if they completely solidified the mother-ship..AM right? I don't know why, but I'm just not worried about MNKD's future..it seems pretty buttoned down. I'm not really an optimistic kinda guy...more a cynical type It seems very odd to consider something as the "ace in the hole" when it is merely a hope conjured up by someone desperate for a solution to the depressed share price. Have you EVER heard of that happening with any company? I'm guessing the tax consequences alone make that a non solution. MNKD isn't his only legacy, he has many foundations. Al may yet step in personally (if he still has enough financial resources to do so), but to assume that it will be in a manner to simply give a hundreds of million dollar gift to us as the other common shareholders seems far fetched. |
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Post by nuklerfizzacist on Feb 13, 2016 18:48:32 GMT -5
What is your reply to the last part of my post? My MP to AM scenario? Hoping (there I go again) one of you "wet blankets" ;-) can tell me how that might go. Ben..no worries..really, matter of fact we have a booster club t-shirt for you if you ever decide to come over.
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 13, 2016 19:24:05 GMT -5
What is your reply to the last part of my post? My MP to AM scenario? Hoping (there I go again) one of you "wet blankets" ;-) can tell me how that might go. Ben..no worries..really, matter of fact we have a booster club t-shirt for you if you ever decide to come over. I'm guessing Al is thinking he won't have to step in. But in my mind it's not logical, that if he needed to that he would not. It's way to early to give up on Afrezza! The results are to good and Al has been proven right after all this time! The ( wet blankets) maybe need to sell down to ( the sleeping point). And some of the rest of us will go ahead and buy when there is blood in the streets:-) |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 13, 2016 20:23:39 GMT -5
What is your reply to the last part of my post? My MP to AM scenario? Hoping (there I go again) one of you "wet blankets" ;-) can tell me how that might go. Ben..no worries..really, matter of fact we have a booster club t-shirt for you if you ever decide to come over.
"No Matt is not going to be planning for failure. He will do his best to save the situation. BK is when the plan that is put in place does not work. MNKD didn't plan to pick a marketing partner that would accomplish so little and then bail. Bad things happen that aren't planned for. Even if MNKD goes through bankruptcy, Al's reputation and dignity will certainly still be intact. He's an amazing person with tons of accomplishments and I'm 100% certain Afrezza will be remembered as one of them... even if we lose out as shareholders. "How about a thumbs down option?
"Seems like it would just make the board even more confrontational. If one can't be bothered to write something civil and rational to refute posts they don't like, probably better to express nothing. Let's not strive to become YMB. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 13, 2016 20:49:46 GMT -5
What is your reply to the last part of my post? My MP to AM scenario? Hoping (there I go again) one of you "wet blankets" ;-) can tell me how that might go. Ben..no worries..really, matter of fact we have a booster club t-shirt for you if you ever decide to come over. I'm guessing Al is thinking he won't have to step in. But in my mind it's not logical, that if he needed to that he would not. It's way to early to give up on Afrezza! The results are to good and Al has been proven right after all this time! The ( wet blankets) maybe need to sell down to ( the sleeping point). And some of the rest of us will go ahead and buy when there is blood in the streets:-) He may step in, but he probably doesn't have enough money left to really solve the problem beyond just being stop gap if some other deal is pending. I don't think anyone is contemplating giving up on Afrezza. Afrezza has the ability to survive even if my investment in MNKD does not. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 13, 2016 21:31:37 GMT -5
I'm guessing Al is thinking he won't have to step in. But in my mind it's not logical, that if he needed to that he would not. It's way to early to give up on Afrezza! The results are to good and Al has been proven right after all this time! The ( wet blankets) maybe need to sell down to ( the sleeping point). And some of the rest of us will go ahead and buy when there is blood in the streets:-) He may step in, but he probably doesn't have enough money left to really solve the problem beyond just being stop gap if some other deal is pending. I don't think anyone is contemplating giving up on Afrezza. Afrezza has the ability to survive even if my investment in MNKD does not. I'm thinking he sells it to someone who will run with it and MNKD mergers with RLS. What do you think? |
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Post by kball on Feb 13, 2016 22:58:35 GMT -5
He may step in, but he probably doesn't have enough money left to really solve the problem beyond just being stop gap if some other deal is pending. I don't think anyone is contemplating giving up on Afrezza. Afrezza has the ability to survive even if my investment in MNKD does not. This would be an elegant solution. But... My question is if Afrezza is sold AND mannkind gets a walk away payoff from Sanofi, would mannkind even NEED to merge? |
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 13, 2016 23:49:33 GMT -5
Good question. Maybe not NEED to. But perhaps more value if they did. And away for RLS to become public quickly. I have no clue who they are but I'll bet they are friends of Al's. Some company's split to un-lock value. A merger might help both company's. Hard to know. Someone else could give a better response who has perhaps gone through one.
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Post by peppy on Feb 14, 2016 7:55:35 GMT -5
In reply to what happens next? MNKD has to announce their earnings date 7 days prior. Earnings @ the 23rd of Feb. Conference call.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 14, 2016 17:09:35 GMT -5
He may step in, but he probably doesn't have enough money left to really solve the problem beyond just being stop gap if some other deal is pending. I don't think anyone is contemplating giving up on Afrezza. Afrezza has the ability to survive even if my investment in MNKD does not. I'm thinking he sells it to someone who will run with it and MNKD mergers with RLS. What do you think? I always assume that deals are arms length and represent what the parties ultimately wanted... i.e. no reason to believe that MNKD would merge with RLS vs any other company under the assumption that they now have the rights to TS for the APIs for which it will be useful to them. As for MNKD selling Afrezza, I think Matt answered one question that indicated all options including sale were being considered. Personally I'm hoping that doesn't happen right now as I think they are in a bad negotiating position. I guess in my version of hopeful, what will happen is that they will do one or more regional distribution deals that have some upfront money. That, and perhaps a small amount of cash from SNY, combined with RLS milestone at end of year gets them back to a point where they can do a secondary offering that isn't hugely dilutive. I think this is generally what Matt has indicated as well... though being open to any offers such as total acquisition that their investment bankers may turn up. I think this latter scenario of smaller amounts of money from multiple sources could lead to the most value for shareholders, but unfortunately it would probably mean quite a long time (12 months perhaps) of uncertainty and low share price. |
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Post by nuklerfizzacist on Feb 15, 2016 11:45:56 GMT -5
Well. Al Mann's health aside (as that is obviously fraught with conjecture and in my opinion pointless to even discuss, and it is likely (duh) that he has already addressed what to do in his absence..wow that's a stretch..sarcasm) why wouldn't the retiring or return of his shares be just as possible as any other scenario? Just maybe it is the most likely scenario? Listen, I'm not basing my continued investing strategy on that possibility but to me that very possibility is Mannkinds ace-in-the hole. Think about it from an obvious-looking Occam's Razor type point of view: AM owns how many common shares? Who would lose (as an individual) most in a BK..AM right? which kinda rules that option out right? To me it does. And finally, who would cement their legacy of helping diabetics if they completely solidified the mother-ship..AM right? I don't know why, but I'm just not worried about MNKD's future..it seems pretty buttoned down. I'm not really an optimistic kinda guy...more a cynical type It seems very odd to consider something as the "ace in the hole" when it is merely a hope conjured up by someone desperate for a solution to the depressed share price. Have you EVER heard of that happening with any company? I'm guessing the tax consequences alone make that a non solution. MNKD isn't his only legacy, he has many foundations. Al may yet step in personally (if he still has enough financial resources to do so), but to assume that it will be in a manner to simply give a hundreds of million dollar gift to us as the other common shareholders seems far fetched. As my original reply indicating I am not the desperate type has seemingly been removed, I will ask this; who isn't "desperate" for a solution to the depressed share price? Moderators, I would ask for fairness of postings being scrubbed as I did not post an insult but was only replying to one...see above. |
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Post by BlueCat on Feb 17, 2016 16:12:06 GMT -5
Looks like this poll is winding down - which is good timing as we're now speculating on what might be covered during the RBC presentation, then the earnings call.
At this point, looks like most project sale of company or major assets (e.g. Afrezza) before EOY.
Interesting that slow build, major change in company structure or partnership and BK were all pretty close.
Personally I woulda flipped the BK with the 'Major financial change' numbers. I think they would at least try a way to refinance (or go private via LBO) before going BK.
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