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Post by BlueCat on Feb 11, 2016 21:30:53 GMT -5
Matt has said that at current burn rate, there are enough resources to last to the second half of 2016.
He has also stated they are taking steps to reduce costs, increase income opportunities and re-evaluate current financing agreements, as well as negotiate a transition with SNY.
No matter what - something must change. If things stay exactly as they are, cash will run out second half.
What do you think the future holds?
(To clarify - I think a large-significant financial settlement with SNY would count as a "Major financial" - like reverse split, large investor, etc. E.g. one that would carry MNKD into 2017 at least)
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 11, 2016 22:46:49 GMT -5
I voted for sale before I read your post. So I think large settlement from SNY and sale in 2017. Scripts slowly gaining along the way. Clinics doing well. Over seas partners.
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Post by BlueCat on Feb 11, 2016 23:36:16 GMT -5
I voted for sale before I read your post. So I think large settlement from SNY and sale in 2017. Scripts slowly gaining along the way. Clinics doing well. Over seas partners. Right. After crafting the poll, I realized that some combination is also highly likely! But then, you only get (5) answers ...... Certainly would make sense on the business end. Build back the value of the company to set a better price tag. |
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Post by peppy on Feb 11, 2016 23:39:45 GMT -5
I still think TEVA could corner the fast acting insulin market with afrezza.
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Post by nuklerfizzacist on Feb 12, 2016 7:50:31 GMT -5
Just a question (which may be a stupid one, if so forgive me) but could Al Mann "retire" his common shares? And, if that were possible, what might be the effect? this isn't hopium on my part but a sincere question. If it is, in fact, feasible then perhaps it should be discussed.
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Post by kball on Feb 12, 2016 8:07:20 GMT -5
26 votes so far but only 2 comments?
i think all are possible, but based on the drama of the last 3 months, plus our current stock price (sum of all investors thinking) i would guess approximately
6% Slow build (still have insurance and education and marketing issues)
12% major partnership (another big pharma, not an RLS type secretive deal)
12% Sanofi pays roughly 100 mill give or take (fearing this comes too late for common shareholders)
20% sale of company or Afrezza or reverse merger
50% Bankruptcy
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Post by BlueCat on Feb 12, 2016 12:31:45 GMT -5
26 votes so far but only 2 comments? i think all are possible, but based on the drama of the last 3 months, plus our current stock price (sum of all investors thinking) i would guess approximately6% Slow build (still have insurance and education and marketing issues) 12% major partnership (another big pharma, not an RLS type secretive deal) 12% Sanofi pays roughly 100 mill give or take (fearing this comes too late for common shareholders) 20% sale of company or Afrezza or reverse merger 50% Bankruptcy Net - you give it a 50-50 chance of survival. On the SNY pays piece, I would break that down into pieces - a little from SNY, a little financial restructure, maybe a little from Al in worst case. A combo package. |
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Post by BlueCat on Feb 12, 2016 12:36:41 GMT -5
Just a question (which may be a stupid one, if so forgive me) but could Al Mann "retire" his common shares? And, if that were possible, what might be the effect? this isn't hopium on my part but a sincere question. If it is, in fact, feasible then perhaps it should be discussed. I actually asked a similar question in another thread - along the lines of, Old Mann's "Exit Plan": What if rather than leave to Foundation, he effectively leaves it to MNKD - and they retire the shares dropping the outstanding share count by almost 40%? Imagine that could have significant tax consequences on MNKD - but even still, could immediately raise share price. At which time, they could offer out the shares they still have available to bring in some cash near term. Hopium - yes. This is a really, really long shot. But out of range of possibility? And in any case, it doesn't take into account losing Old Mann on company leadership, perception and stock price or the simple humanity of it. So because of that, and how far out this really clearly does reach - I didn't continue down this path. But I don't think its stupid ; ) |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2016 12:56:32 GMT -5
BlueCat... it falls in the realm of anything is possible, though I dare say I would expect that the day that happens will also be the day a giant asteroid emerges from our blind side and causes a mass extinction. I believe trading on NASDAQ is halted under that circumstance, though potentially the computers are allowed to keep on manipulating until their batteries run dry.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2016 13:20:33 GMT -5
Al could retire his shares, yes. He could donate his shares, sell them, hold, or retire them. I do feel, however, the next question is - is al in a position to manage his world? Evidence is pointing to al not being engaged. Given his age, recent lack of activity, resignation of the EYES director position, etc.. it's not out of the realm of possibilities. If that's the case, then al would have made accommodations for his wealth and it's pretty well documented where al said he was going to die broke and fund his interests. At the point he was likely making those decisions, al was believing in massive success for afrezza about now and, if true, didn't see a need to create a backup fund for mnkd. With each passing day I'm more and more convinced that this is the case. As such and if true, then someone other than al is calling the shots on his estate and they aren't likely to be as singularly focused on the success of mnkd as al was. All conjecture on my part. Time will tell.
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trap
Newbie
Posts: 9 
Sentiment: Long
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Post by trap on Feb 12, 2016 13:22:50 GMT -5
Looks the BK advocates rushed out to vote .... now it looks like 40-8 the company will survive or about 5-1. That comes to a 16.67% chance of bankruptcy which is about right in my opinion. I keep seeing references to a reverse split ... other than making it easier to meet listing requirements, I'm not sure what that accomplishes. Kinda like exchanging my 5 nickles for a quarter! It has no effect on capitalization. Where am I going wrong?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2016 13:34:12 GMT -5
None of the above.
Company has series of small life saving maneuvers for next 12 months, causing anxiety among investors and lots of posts on proboards.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Feb 12, 2016 13:43:46 GMT -5
Looks the BK advocates rushed out to vote .... now it looks like 40-8 the company will survive or about 5-1. That comes to a 16.67% chance of bankruptcy which is about right in my opinion. I keep seeing references to a reverse split ... other than making it easier to meet listing requirements, I'm not sure what that accomplishes. Kinda like exchanging my 5 nickles for a quarter! It has no effect on capitalization. Where am I going wrong? You are not wrong. A reverse split does nothing but make the sp look bigger. The value of the company remains the same, there are just less shares outstanding. Citi did a huge reverse split several years ago and their sp has gone nowhere in 5 years. If they stay under $1 though, a reverse split will allow them to stay on the big board! |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2016 13:48:10 GMT -5
Looks the BK advocates rushed out to vote .... now it looks like 40-8 the company will survive or about 5-1. That comes to a 16.67% chance of bankruptcy which is about right in my opinion. I keep seeing references to a reverse split ... other than making it easier to meet listing requirements, I'm not sure what that accomplishes. Kinda like exchanging my 5 nickles for a quarter! It has no effect on capitalization. Where am I going wrong? LOL... I wish probability worked like that. I'd be willing to say Google will buy MNKD if that really increased the probability of it happening.  A few more nickles and you can exchange them for a share of MNKD. |
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Post by trondisc on Feb 12, 2016 13:52:06 GMT -5
Looks the BK advocates rushed out to vote .... now it looks like 40-8 the company will survive or about 5-1. That comes to a 16.67% chance of bankruptcy which is about right in my opinion. I keep seeing references to a reverse split ... other than making it easier to meet listing requirements, I'm not sure what that accomplishes. Kinda like exchanging my 5 nickles for a quarter! It has no effect on capitalization. Where am I going wrong? MannKind as a whole (Afrezza/IP/Technosphere/etc) is worth $25-30 PPS at least (many years out; full buyout now would only net $7-10 PPS) since the potential market capitalization is in the 20 billion range eventually. How the shorts hold this hostage below $1 is beyond me. |
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