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Post by benyiju on Feb 12, 2016 14:56:11 GMT -5
This board is very good for identifying potential positive catalysts, but not always great for helping us get out ahead of possible negatives. If we're to be critical investors, and especially if we're trying to time buys and/or sells, we need both, right? I'm sure I'm not the only one who is getting tired of being blindsided by the latest MNKD news and SP drop. It's been a long year and a half since approval and I am now living in constant anxiety waiting for the other shoe to drop (yes, my exposure to MNKD is far too high, I know!). So, we've seen a list of possible positive catalysts for the near future. What do we need to worry about on the down side?
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Post by benyiju on Feb 12, 2016 14:58:00 GMT -5
Let me start this off by throwing out one that came up today in these discussions:
1) Al retiring from the BOD
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2016 15:06:14 GMT -5
Let me start this off by throwing out one that came up today in these discussions: 1) Al retiring from the BOD I doubt that will happen short of major change in health. 2) Matt or some other execs jumping ship 3) Announcement of secondary offering 4) Another TS deal with no upfront 5) More layoffs or announcement of curtailing internal TS development to cut costs 6) Sam Finta having a severe hypo and turning into an Afrezza basher  |
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Post by kball on Feb 12, 2016 15:33:51 GMT -5
Let me start this off by throwing out one that came up today in these discussions: 1) Al retiring from the BOD I doubt that will happen short of major change in health. 2) Matt or some other execs jumping ship 3) Announcement of secondary offering 4) Another TS deal with no upfront
5) More layoffs or announcement of curtailing internal TS development to cut costs6) Sam Finta having a severe hypo and turning into an Afrezza basher This would seem almost a lock to be the first imo |
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Post by bioexec25 on Feb 12, 2016 16:19:20 GMT -5
Good list. Might add: 1) Sanofi sneaks out the back door without a kiss goodbye. 2) Some Long agrees lead plaintiff v. Mnkd 3) Predators pressure BK 4) Scripts bleed out as new docs/patients lose confidence 5) Mnkd isn't prepared for handover 6) Contract breach for Insulin purchase agreement 7) In April the Sny truck arrives dumps Afrezza & Mnkd has No BO, No Deal, Small $$$, & All or some of 1-6 coming true.
How's that for half empty.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2016 16:42:32 GMT -5
Good list. Might add: 1) Sanofi sneaks out the back door without a kiss goodbye. 2) Some Long agrees lead plaintiff v. Mnkd 3) Predators pressure BK 4) Scripts bleed out as new docs/patients lose confidence 5) Mnkd isn't prepared for handover 6) Contract breach for Insulin purchase agreement 7) In April the Sny truck arrives dumps Afrezza & Mnkd has No BO, No Deal, Small $$$, & All or some of 1-6 coming true. How's that for half empty. Scripts will likely be a thorn in our side. Already I've seen people (and I don't believe as FUD) mistaking SNY dropping Afrezza with Afrezza being taken off the market. Even doctors that might have been prescribing it before may rethink whether worth the hassle/paperwork of getting approval, having lung function tests done and training patients if they worry about Afrezza disappearing. As for #1... that's just rude. BP are pigs. |
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Post by matt on Feb 12, 2016 16:46:07 GMT -5
We all know the cash position is tight, so the number one risk to the overall scenario is that the handover of Afrezza costs way more than what Matt and friends expect, resulting in a faster drain on the cash that is left. There is a chance to keep this ship afloat, but it will take some time to figure out and without cash there is not time.
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Post by tayl5 on Feb 12, 2016 16:47:35 GMT -5
Good list. Might add: 1) Sanofi sneaks out the back door without a kiss goodbye. 2) Some Long agrees lead plaintiff v. Mnkd 3) Predators pressure BK 4) Scripts bleed out as new docs/patients lose confidence 5) Mnkd isn't prepared for handover 6) Contract breach for Insulin purchase agreement 7) In April the Sny truck arrives dumps Afrezza & Mnkd has No BO, No Deal, Small $$$, & All or some of 1-6 coming true. How's that for half empty. Scripts will likely be a thorn in our side. Already I've seen people (and I don't believe as FUD) mistaking SNY dropping Afrezza with Afrezza being taken off the market. Even doctors that might have been prescribing it before may rethink whether worth the hassle/paperwork of getting approval, having lung function tests done and training patients if they worry about Afrezza disappearing. As for #1... that's just rude. BP are pigs. At least #5 seems to be resolved, according to the FAQ for the recent conference call. Agree no kiss would be poor form. |
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Post by hawaiiguy42 on Feb 12, 2016 16:54:01 GMT -5
1. MNKD sells the rights of Afrezza with royalties.
2. MNKD pays off debt.
3. MNKD spins off with RLS.
4. MNKD develops other life saving devices.
5. MNKD Al finally retires now the ship has righted.
6. MNKD PPS, 2 - 3 years from now $30.00 - $80.00 range.
7. MNKD all else fails, BK.
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Post by kball on Feb 12, 2016 17:10:54 GMT -5
Good list. Might add: 1) Sanofi sneaks out the back door without a kiss goodbye. 2) Some Long agrees lead plaintiff v. Mnkd 3) Predators pressure BK 4) Scripts bleed out as new docs/patients lose confidence 5) Mnkd isn't prepared for handover 6) Contract breach for Insulin purchase agreement 7) In April the Sny truck arrives dumps Afrezza & Mnkd has No BO, No Deal, Small $$$, & All or some of 1-6 coming true.
How's that for half empty.More like 3/4 i'd say. |
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Post by agedhippie on Feb 12, 2016 17:14:02 GMT -5
Let me start this off by throwing out one that came up today in these discussions: 1) Al retiring from the BOD I doubt that will happen short of major change in health. 2) Matt or some other execs jumping ship 3) Announcement of secondary offering 4) Another TS deal with no upfront 5) More layoffs or announcement of curtailing internal TS development to cut costs 6) Sam Finta having a severe hypo and turning into an Afrezza basher My money for the most likely one is (3). 1. Al will not leave the board short of death. There is no reason why he should and the optics of doing so would be awful. 2. Matt is not going to quit. This is the best position he has had, up to now he has been a perpetual CFO. Who is going to take him as a CEO unless Mannkind is turned around in which case his future is bright. 3. This is very likely I think. The question is when. 4. A no upfront TS deal is probably all there is. The risk to a company of making the upfront deal and then having Mannkind go bust is just to high so they have to hedge. 5. If the secondary offering does not happen I think this is inevitable but it will be done quietly and slowly. Sanofi are going to exit and part with little if any cash. Mannkind are very short of leverage in this area since an dispute must be settle by a three man arbitration team and not the courts. |
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Post by kball on Feb 13, 2016 16:53:35 GMT -5
Good list. Might add: 1) Sanofi sneaks out the back door without a kiss goodbye. 2) Some Long agrees lead plaintiff v. Mnkd 3) Predators pressure BK 4) Scripts bleed out as new docs/patients lose confidence 5) Mnkd isn't prepared for handover 6) Contract breach for Insulin purchase agreement 7) In April the Sny truck arrives dumps Afrezza & Mnkd has No BO, No Deal, Small $$$, & All or some of 1-6 coming true. How's that for half empty. 8) Another real possibility is MNKD loses some of its brightest scientists and advanced degreed technosphere team members (not through layoffs as i feel these folks would be some of the last to be given pink slips) but due to their own decision to look for other, more stable companies to work for and make their mark/fortune. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 13, 2016 17:20:43 GMT -5
Good list. Might add: 1) Sanofi sneaks out the back door without a kiss goodbye. 2) Some Long agrees lead plaintiff v. Mnkd 3) Predators pressure BK 4) Scripts bleed out as new docs/patients lose confidence 5) Mnkd isn't prepared for handover 6) Contract breach for Insulin purchase agreement 7) In April the Sny truck arrives dumps Afrezza & Mnkd has No BO, No Deal, Small $$$, & All or some of 1-6 coming true. How's that for half empty. 8) Another real possibility is MNKD loses some of its brightest scientists and advanced degreed technosphere team members (not through layoffs as i feel these folks would be some of the last to be given pink slips) but due to their own decision to look for other, more stable companies to work for and make their mark/fortune. Though I'm not sure we'd see that shoe dropping, so perhaps wouldn't be the source of a hit to the stock. |
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