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Post by benyiju on Feb 14, 2016 20:46:00 GMT -5
The discussion of possible buyout prices here today makes us wonder: what price do you see as most likely for MannKind in the event of a buyout this year?
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Post by yash on Feb 14, 2016 21:01:23 GMT -5
Those Who think that it will be within $1 range then why wait for buyout?
They can sell now and move on.
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Post by benyiju on Feb 15, 2016 0:06:09 GMT -5
Those Who think that it will be within $1 range then why wait for buyout? They can sell now and move on. Assuming yours is a serious question (and not a whiny rhetorical question), there are several possible answers, but the most obvious would be that they think it will only fetch ~$1 in BO right now but they don't think a BO is going to happen (or hope it won't) and they think there is a good chance shares will be worth more in the future. I personally don't think it would be that low, but I find it morbidly fascinating that anyone imagines MNKD could fetch more than 3 or 4 dollars in the current circumstances (and I would guess more likely in the $1.50-$2.50 range). And whoever voted for $10+ is seriously tripping and their family should probably have them put under financial guardianship... |
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Post by yash on Feb 15, 2016 3:10:02 GMT -5
The question is "What (share)price would MannKind go for in a buyout this year?"
The answer is whether there is a buyout this year or next year MannKind will not be sold for $1.
Why Al would sell for $1 after investing billion of dollars?
- Because SNY did their best to sell Afrezza and patients hate it?
- People enjoy injecting and do not like inhaling
- Or afrezza has no other benefits
- TS is a bad technology
and the list goes on...
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Post by matt on Feb 15, 2016 11:19:47 GMT -5
The poll is missing one more option; that no consensual deal is possible. Delaware law requires that 90% of shares be owned or tendered in order to consummate a transaction with objecting minority (<10%) shareholders.
Potential buyers will pay a premium over current market price, but few deals go off with more than a 35% premium. Under the current circumstances I doubt there are any buyers at $2 a share, and even if there was, there may be enough minority shareholders to block the deal because they want more than $2. Legally, there is no way around a large minority block and I suspect that is what would happen in this case.
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Post by benyiju on Feb 16, 2016 23:14:59 GMT -5
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Post by rockstarrick on Feb 17, 2016 0:39:53 GMT -5
Yeah, there is no option for my choice either.
Here's how I look at it, we have an FDA approved drug and an FDA approved delivery system.
Now I sit and imagine how much money and how much time it takes for these pharmaceutical companies to bring a new drug to the market, not to mention a paradigm changing inhaled insulin and an approved breath powered inhaler.
That's our bargaining power IMO.
I think when the sp is more representative of where many expected it to be, then there maybe a buyout, it's not going to be sold before, something is going to have to happen to bring back our shareholder value. I don't see them selling it cheap, I hope I'm right.
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Post by me on Feb 17, 2016 9:26:22 GMT -5
Those Who think that it will be within $1 range then why wait for buyout? They can sell now and move on. Assuming yours is a serious question (and not a whiny rhetorical question), there are several possible answers, but the most obvious would be that they think it will only fetch ~$1 in BO right now but they don't think a BO is going to happen (or hope it won't) and they think there is a good chance shares will be worth more in the future. I personally don't think it would be that low, but I find it morbidly fascinating that anyone imagines MNKD could fetch more than 3 or 4 dollars in the current circumstances (and I would guess more likely in the $1.50-$2.50 range). And whoever voted for $10+ is seriously tripping and their family should probably have them put under financial guardianship... But...the poll's question was not "What price would MannKind go for in a 2016 buyout, even though you don't think a 2016 BO will happen and you think shares are worth more in the future?" These poll respondents responded to the poll's question and therefore yash is right on the money with his question. Additionally, with regard to one of your "possible answers" for those respondents who think a 2016 BO would bring less than $1.00, but it may be worth more in 2017 and beyond, do they really believe their own analysis projecting a higher price in 2017, is more well-founded than that of market professionals in possession of near-perfect information, who may be bidding on MNKD and winning at less than $1.00? And yes, this is a rhetorical question - the answer would be no. Therefore, again, yash 's question is right on the money. As a fairly rational individual (if only you knew!), if my analysis indicated a BO in 2016 would bring less than $1.00, regardless of whether it were to occur or not, then a rational action for me would be to sell at the absolute maximum price of $1.00 that I could expect, and use the proceeds for other investment opportunities. Again, see yash 's question. |
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Post by BlueCat on Feb 17, 2016 11:18:05 GMT -5
There's no reason for MKND to sell at $1 now. That's about equivalent to BK process. And they have many options to improve the future of the company (or the BO price) before even considering it.
And I'm with Nate. In my darkest hours, my biggest ongoing concern is that Old Mann or his Foundation will say "We tried everything. We just have to take it private. Sorry!" So in that scenario, sure, BO could happen at $1 but only by the team we are counting on to save our fortunes, not steal them.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 17, 2016 14:17:19 GMT -5
But...the poll's question was not "What price would MannKind go for in a 2016 buyout, even though you don't think a 2016 BO will happen and you think shares are worth more in the future?" These poll respondents responded to the poll's question and therefore yash is right on the money with his question. Additionally, with regard to one of your "possible answers" for those respondents who think a 2016 BO would bring less than $1.00, but it may be worth more in 2017 and beyond, do they really believe their own analysis projecting a higher price in 2017, is more well-founded than that of market professionals in possession of near-perfect information, who may be bidding on MNKD and winning at less than $1.00? And yes, this is a rhetorical question - the answer would be no. Therefore, again, yash 's question is right on the money. As a fairly rational individual (if only you knew!), if my analysis indicated a BO in 2016 would bring less than $1.00, regardless of whether it were to occur or not, then a rational action for me would be to sell at the absolute maximum price of $1.00 that I could expect, and use the proceeds for other investment opportunities. Again, see yash 's question. It seems like this boils down to how one prices a stock where it has to factor in solvency risk, not simply doing present value calculation on future growth... and with regard to a sale whether it occurs in desperation or more normally based on present value of future revenue. If there were more than one company seriously interested in buying MNKD even in the precarious situation they are in they might get a fair price based on future prospects for Afrezza. If there were only one interested party the sale price may be a fraction of what the full potential of Afrezza would be. I said $1 - $2 range, since I don't think a bidding war will break out without successful clinical superiority trials. They might not even find someone that makes an offer at all, or they might reject something below that... but I think that would be the most likely range given what we know now. I am not factoring in solving the solvency issue this year... I think the path to survival will involve multiple steps to extend the runway, but all this year we'll probably have a cliff somewhere in front of us. Perhaps it is telling that Nate now says MNKD is a buy under $3. He has been a perpetual MNKD long. |
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