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Post by nylefty on Mar 17, 2016 21:40:17 GMT -5
Is it possible that Al Mann's will has been leaked? I keep coming back to Al telling the New York Times in 2007 that his will instructed his foundation to make sure that his companies had "enough money." www.nytimes.com/2007/11/16/business/16mannkind.html?pagewanted=printMr. Mann, who survived two minor bouts of cancer but said he was now healthy, said his will instructed the foundation that is to inherit his wealth to make sure that his companies have enough money.
Why would Al have changed his mind? |
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 18, 2016 2:15:59 GMT -5
I'll share my thoughts on this. I've been holding shares in MNKD off and on (mostly on) for over 10 years here. I'll spare the history, but while I still hold a little optimism that MNKD has a chance to continue and possibly experience a big success in the future, I don't see where the company can be worth the current $750M+ market cap. That little glimmer of optimism is the only thing backstopping the company at present. The risk of failure to perform is immense and the resources available to wage a protracted sales effort or other difficulties are perilously low. Granted Sanofi can offer some cash, an international partner can come forward, a couple of additional positive events are possible this year, all of which are necessarily critical for survival; but even with this, the prospects would still remain clouded. Afrezza sales must ramp quickly, something that has not been shown as probable. With that in mind, I have been expecting a bit of a run into April as rumor and the potential for positive news take the front foot. Still, I was not expecting it to go particularly far and so I sold my stake a couple of days ago. I really had some idea of trading around the earnings release, looking at possibly picking up 30cents here and there to salvage something from my losses. That opportunity lasted all of 12 hours and I was not able to take advantage. What occurs to me is that others may have or are doing the same in taking a chance to walk away a little gracefully, at least for now. Anyone who was lending shares and selling is forcing the borrower into a buy to cover, so there may be something of a self-perpetuating cycle in place. As the price rises, the shares short are probably also falling (as too the lending rate is particularly high). But, I don't see this continuing very long. The momentum play has to wane as fundamentals come back into focus and I really don't see how it can sustain the market cap where it is at present; I would say $2 is the absolute limit in absence of a buyout or some significant partnership development (more than just an overseas interest). We've seen this drama several times, the shorts are biding their time and will come roaring back as the opportunity on that side of the trade grows larger. This price spike is a gift, and honestly if I were CEO, I would be very tempted to raise cash on a share offering right here unless a big settlement with Sanofi were imminent and probably even if it were. The company probably needs $2-300M in cash to execute even a basic sales strategy for the next 2 years. It might be possible to lay hold of a fair chunk of that right now and waiting for a better opportunity seems foolhardy. I don't see anything else on the horizon that can bring that kind of money. james, nice job! This rise in price could be the result of a brokerage or two doing some of their "magic" in order to have an offering at a much higher price than $1 or so. Hope you're wrong, of course, but a viable theory. |
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Mar 18, 2016 5:29:18 GMT -5
Sure, we will never know what plans the larger short sellers have. But I doubt that with >40% short rate, about 25 days to cover and a lot of unknown positives out there they are really eager to build a bull trap. There are easier and less risky prey out there.
Some FUD articles are not going to work at the hardened and well informed group of long term investors. I havent seen the FUDster LFD for some time now at SA. I rather guess that they try to get out of it as cheap as possible.
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Post by scottiemac on Mar 18, 2016 7:03:40 GMT -5
Crazy comment here- and I know this might sound strange, but: Is there a chance the shorts are buying to be long? They drove it or helped drive it down to record lows, they know something is up, so they are literally changing the plan? I don't mean covering- I mean accumulating. I don't see as many negative articles as I expected. Just a thought. It doesn't look like a squeeze, but a 20% gain is nothing to ignore. Thoughts? The Street has a few nasty comments this morning (what else is new?): @adamfeuerstein wants badly for $MNKD to fail, but It seems from his posts he's finally seeing the path that will ensure that doesn't happen — emsnlusdad (@emsnlusdad) March 15, 2016 No, I'm not. The MannKind (MNKD) 10-K filed this week is a roadmap directing the company towards insolvency. Read it carefully. You're foolish to believe the recent rebound in the stock price is anything more than a trading phenomenon. We've seen this before. It ends badly. @adamfeuerstein how do you suppose things got so out of control along the way to market Afrezza? — Michael Bliss (@mrbliss1) March 15, 2016 Ego and incompetence. |
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Mar 18, 2016 7:58:11 GMT -5
I like the phrase
'a trading phenomenon' .You can label every stock at every moment of trade as a 'trading phenomenon'. It would have been nice if he would have enlightened us with a proper argument.
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Post by peppy on Mar 18, 2016 8:04:48 GMT -5
If volume comes in and price goes up on these lousy script numbers....
Then something else is going on.
That is my take.
Let's see.
Yesterday was option expiry. quad I think.
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Post by kbrion77 on Mar 18, 2016 8:19:42 GMT -5
Crazy comment here- and I know this might sound strange, but: Is there a chance the shorts are buying to be long? They drove it or helped drive it down to record lows, they know something is up, so they are literally changing the plan? I don't mean covering- I mean accumulating. I don't see as many negative articles as I expected. Just a thought. It doesn't look like a squeeze, but a 20% gain is nothing to ignore. Thoughts? The Street has a few nasty comments this morning (what else is new?): @adamfeuerstein wants badly for $MNKD to fail, but It seems from his posts he's finally seeing the path that will ensure that doesn't happen — emsnlusdad (@emsnlusdad) March 15, 2016 No, I'm not. The MannKind (MNKD) 10-K filed this week is a roadmap directing the company towards insolvency. Read it carefully. You're foolish to believe the recent rebound in the stock price is anything more than a trading phenomenon. We've seen this before. It ends badly. @adamfeuerstein how do you suppose things got so out of control along the way to market Afrezza? — Michael Bliss (@mrbliss1) March 15, 2016 Ego and incompetence. He was also tweeting about cautioning around GW Pharma's PH3 study and how the company dropped out of the Cowen Conference because of an "abundance of caution ahead." He nailed that one let me tell you. |
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Post by peppy on Mar 18, 2016 8:26:58 GMT -5
The Street has a few nasty comments this morning (what else is new?): @adamfeuerstein wants badly for $MNKD to fail, but It seems from his posts he's finally seeing the path that will ensure that doesn't happen — emsnlusdad (@emsnlusdad) March 15, 2016 No, I'm not. The MannKind (MNKD) 10-K filed this week is a roadmap directing the company towards insolvency. Read it carefully. You're foolish to believe the recent rebound in the stock price is anything more than a trading phenomenon. We've seen this before. It ends badly. @adamfeuerstein how do you suppose things got so out of control along the way to market Afrezza? — Michael Bliss (@mrbliss1) March 15, 2016 Ego and incompetence. He was also tweeting about cautioning around GW Pharma's PH3 study and how the company dropped out of the Cowen Conference because of an "abundance of caution ahead." He nailed that one let me tell you. We wouldn't want to give a seizing child a natural medication that works. We need to change molecules and patent them for them to work. Let's get that straight right now. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2016 8:27:38 GMT -5
I'll share my thoughts on this. I've been holding shares in MNKD off and on (mostly on) for over 10 years here. I'll spare the history, but while I still hold a little optimism that MNKD has a chance to continue and possibly experience a big success in the future, I don't see where the company can be worth the current $750M+ market cap. That little glimmer of optimism is the only thing backstopping the company at present. The risk of failure to perform is immense and the resources available to wage a protracted sales effort or other difficulties are perilously low. Granted Sanofi can offer some cash, an international partner can come forward, a couple of additional positive events are possible this year, all of which are necessarily critical for survival; but even with this, the prospects would still remain clouded. Afrezza sales must ramp quickly, something that has not been shown as probable. With that in mind, I have been expecting a bit of a run into April as rumor and the potential for positive news take the front foot. Still, I was not expecting it to go particularly far and so I sold my stake a couple of days ago. I really had some idea of trading around the earnings release, looking at possibly picking up 30cents here and there to salvage something from my losses. That opportunity lasted all of 12 hours and I was not able to take advantage. What occurs to me is that others may have or are doing the same in taking a chance to walk away a little gracefully, at least for now. Anyone who was lending shares and selling is forcing the borrower into a buy to cover, so there may be something of a self-perpetuating cycle in place. As the price rises, the shares short are probably also falling (as too the lending rate is particularly high). But, I don't see this continuing very long. The momentum play has to wane as fundamentals come back into focus and I really don't see how it can sustain the market cap where it is at present; I would say $2 is the absolute limit in absence of a buyout or some significant partnership development (more than just an overseas interest). We've seen this drama several times, the shorts are biding their time and will come roaring back as the opportunity on that side of the trade grows larger. This price spike is a gift, and honestly if I were CEO, I would be very tempted to raise cash on a share offering right here unless a big settlement with Sanofi were imminent and probably even if it were. The company probably needs $2-300M in cash to execute even a basic sales strategy for the next 2 years. It might be possible to lay hold of a fair chunk of that right now and waiting for a better opportunity seems foolhardy. I don't see anything else on the horizon that can bring that kind of money. Very reasonable post. My thoughts 1) Matt's confidence is a bluff to get shorts to cover then dilute 2) There is a settlement 3) They have partners outside US I did pick up some shares to get in on the squeeze |
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Post by liane on Mar 18, 2016 8:29:57 GMT -5
If volume comes in and price goes up on these lousy script numbers.... Then something else is going on. That is my take. Let's see. Yesterday was option expiry. quad I think. I believe today is the op ex. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 18, 2016 9:28:20 GMT -5
If volume comes in and price goes up on these lousy script numbers.... Then something else is going on. That is my take. Let's see. Yesterday was option expiry. quad I think. I believe today is the op ex. NASDAQ options stop publicly trading later today. On Friday. But they expire tomorrow. On Saturday. Here is NASDAQ confirming the above: www.nasdaq.com/investing/glossary/e/expiration-dateMy understanding (no handy source for this, sorry, just something I read and remember) is that big players (e.g. banks) can actually still trade options in a limited way Saturday morning. E.g. to balance books and such. Here is a handy calendar for reference: www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar |
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Post by avogadro on Mar 18, 2016 11:17:19 GMT -5
I'll share my thoughts on this. I've been holding shares in MNKD off and on (mostly on) for over 10 years here. I'll spare the history, but while I still hold a little optimism that MNKD has a chance to continue and possibly experience a big success in the future, I don't see where the company can be worth the current $750M+ market cap. That little glimmer of optimism is the only thing backstopping the company at present. The risk of failure to perform is immense and the resources available to wage a protracted sales effort or other difficulties are perilously low. Granted Sanofi can offer some cash, an international partner can come forward, a couple of additional positive events are possible this year, all of which are necessarily critical for survival; but even with this, the prospects would still remain clouded. Afrezza sales must ramp quickly, something that has not been shown as probable. With that in mind, I have been expecting a bit of a run into April as rumor and the potential for positive news take the front foot. Still, I was not expecting it to go particularly far and so I sold my stake a couple of days ago. I really had some idea of trading around the earnings release, looking at possibly picking up 30cents here and there to salvage something from my losses. That opportunity lasted all of 12 hours and I was not able to take advantage. What occurs to me is that others may have or are doing the same in taking a chance to walk away a little gracefully, at least for now. Anyone who was lending shares and selling is forcing the borrower into a buy to cover, so there may be something of a self-perpetuating cycle in place. As the price rises, the shares short are probably also falling (as too the lending rate is particularly high). But, I don't see this continuing very long. The momentum play has to wane as fundamentals come back into focus and I really don't see how it can sustain the market cap where it is at present; I would say $2 is the absolute limit in absence of a buyout or some significant partnership development (more than just an overseas interest). We've seen this drama several times, the shorts are biding their time and will come roaring back as the opportunity on that side of the trade grows larger. This price spike is a gift, and honestly if I were CEO, I would be very tempted to raise cash on a share offering right here unless a big settlement with Sanofi were imminent and probably even if it were. The company probably needs $2-300M in cash to execute even a basic sales strategy for the next 2 years. It might be possible to lay hold of a fair chunk of that right now and waiting for a better opportunity seems foolhardy. I don't see anything else on the horizon that can bring that kind of money.At least we didn't have to wait long to learn that this analysis full of crap. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 18, 2016 11:34:31 GMT -5
This price spike is a gift, and honestly if I were CEO, I would be very tempted to raise cash on a share offering right here unless a big settlement with Sanofi were imminent and probably even if it were. The company probably needs $2-300M in cash to execute even a basic sales strategy for the next 2 years. It might be possible to lay hold of a fair chunk of that right now and waiting for a better opportunity seems foolhardy. I don't see anything else on the horizon that can bring that kind of money. Sadly markets don't work like that. The moment a secondary was announced the price would tank if there isn't anything substantial announced to back the run up. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 18, 2016 12:01:59 GMT -5
If volume comes in and price goes up on these lousy script numbers.... Then something else is going on. That is my take. Let's see. Yesterday was option expiry. quad I think. It sure seems like there is leak of some news. Maybe it is just scared shorts running for the exit as the momentum has gotten out of hand... but MNKD shorts have in the past shown a fair amount of intestinal fortitude. And they have their minions up to their antics. |
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 18, 2016 13:09:41 GMT -5
Could it be that Trend (who miraculously and unequivocally called this rally before it started) is actually the mastermind on whom shorts have relied in the past?
I'm positively nonplussed by this, not to mention blown away!
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