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Post by stevil on Mar 18, 2016 13:17:07 GMT -5
Glad the longs are recouping some of their losses. I got in around 1.40 range because I think this will run til 4/5. Not sure if I'll sell then or not.
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Post by miracle331 on Mar 18, 2016 13:32:57 GMT -5
when is the next short interest reporting?
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 18, 2016 13:33:59 GMT -5
Glad the longs are recouping some of their losses. I got in around 1.40 range because I think this will run til 4/5. Not sure if I'll sell then or not. I think this runs to 3 with no news. Congrats, I hope you double your money!
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Post by james on Mar 18, 2016 13:37:05 GMT -5
In principle, this wouldn't be announced (pre-announced as per Matt). Management would be confidentially discussing the idea with large institution (BAC, JPM, or whoever) to determine what interest could be generated on a >50M share offer at some discount to market price (20%, etc). MNKD with a cash backstop is considerably less risky than it is without, so dilution doesn't automatically mean that price falls back into the dumpster. It is the amount of discount that will determine whether enough interest can be generated to get the deal done. In all honesty, Matt should be doing this right now and would be terribly foolish for not considering it with urgency. I say this even expecting that Sanofi might be offering some cash and a partner may be floating in with a bit more. They will need every bit of the cash that these sources can provide to operate for the next couple of years because sales and milestones will not be able to keep the company afloat. Afrezza is too important to take anything but a conservative approach to financing at this point; pushing the envelope has been MNKD's big folly as well as mine while I sat around as a stockholder and watching it happen.
My guess here is that there are some folks with deep pockets accumulating shares right now in preparation to mount another short attack. They have probably already borrowed these and are holding a right to sell. They are willing to pay a significant interest rate to do nothing but wait for the right opportunity. In the meantime, why not prey on the unwashed by generating a little momentum run to maximize profit in the next attack.
MNKD might be worth $2.50 or so ($1B) in an outright sale, but I don't see any fundamental analysis to show it should be worth more than half that as a going concern with current expectations.
Well, what do I know. I've been wrong an awful lot.
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Post by james on Mar 18, 2016 13:42:54 GMT -5
Mar 18, 2016 11:17:07 GMT -7 stevil said: Glad the longs are recouping some of their losses. I got in around 1.40 range because I think this will run til 4/5. Not sure if I'll sell then or not.
Take the money and run. If there is any mistake I have repeated too often in my life it is being unwilling to take a fast profit and be happy. In what way could MNKD possibly be worth $1.5 - $2B as your price target suggests? It's on track to lose $100M or more per year in perpetuity even if it is still in business next year, only hype and hope are holding it up at the moment. A week ago it was just over $1 and the only thing that has changed is that they hired a marketing manager.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 18, 2016 13:47:38 GMT -5
My guess here is that there are some folks with deep pockets accumulating shares right now in preparation to mount another short attack. They have probably already borrowed these and are holding a right to sell. They are willing to pay a significant interest rate to do nothing but wait for the right opportunity. In the meantime, why not prey on the unwashed by generating a little momentum run to maximize profit in the next attack. Consistently being part of the prey for the shorts, I resent the implication I am unwashed.
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Post by factspls88 on Mar 18, 2016 13:52:52 GMT -5
Glad the longs are recouping some of their losses. I got in around 1.40 range because I think this will run til 4/5. Not sure if I'll sell then or not. I think this runs to 3 with no news. Congrats, I hope you double your money! Let's hope so. $3.00 is the 200 day which I am keeping my sights on. Good luck!
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Post by james on Mar 18, 2016 13:59:58 GMT -5
My guess here is that there are some folks with deep pockets accumulating shares right now in preparation to mount another short attack. They have probably already borrowed these and are holding a right to sell. They are willing to pay a significant interest rate to do nothing but wait for the right opportunity. In the meantime, why not prey on the unwashed by generating a little momentum run to maximize profit in the next attack. Consistently being part of the prey for the shorts, I resent the implication I am unwashed. I have to include myself in that category. I have probably lost $150K here in the past 10 years not to mention the opportunity to sit safely and peacefully in an index fund and have generated a nice amount there to boot. Frankly, I've been an idiot. Fortunately, it shouldn't ruin my retirement. I don't know if I'll buy back in again, we'll see... but it won't be at this price unless risk is reduced and the opportunity improves.
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Post by bushman on Mar 18, 2016 14:04:16 GMT -5
Could it be that Trend (who miraculously and unequivocally called this rally before it started) is actually the mastermind on whom shorts have relied in the past? I'm positively nonplussed by this, not to mention blown away! Speaking of Trend... where is he and Joey when we need them? Trend nailed it for sure!!!
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Post by mnkdorbust on Mar 18, 2016 14:18:58 GMT -5
Consistently being part of the prey for the shorts, I resent the implication I am unwashed. I have to include myself in that category. I have probably lost $150K here in the past 10 years not to mention the opportunity to sit safely and peacefully in an index fund and have generated a nice amount there to boot. Frankly, I've been an idiot. Fortunately, it shouldn't ruin my retirement. I don't know if I'll buy back in again, we'll see... but it won't be at this price unless risk is reduced and the opportunity improves. I guess myself personally, I don't see why it's worth any less now than it was at 7, 11, etc. We are a year plus down the road, people that know about Afrezza and how to effectively use it love it, we are about to get out from under SNY who sandbagged the shit out of us as well as get 100% of the profits instead of 25/35%. I get it that expenses will be 100% ours but more than likely as a smaller entity MNKD can operate a hell of a lot more efficiently than the 3 ring circus SNY can as it's just too big of an organization. The bigger a company gets generally the more wasteful they are with money. And who's to say they were being honest with the expenses MNKD had to share with them? Over the last 3 or 4 years i've purchased this from .67 cents all the way to $9 a share with a average at $3.31 per share. Maybe it's because i still have a KoolAid stain but I feel things are better now then they were 2 years ago. There is the whole cash situation but something appears to be cooking on that as nobody seems worried on the inside and high profile executives are leaving good jobs to be part of it. Just my 2 cents. Disclaimer that i've been consistently wrong on this stock for past 3 to 4 years i've been involved with it.
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Post by compound26 on Mar 18, 2016 14:41:08 GMT -5
I have to include myself in that category. I have probably lost $150K here in the past 10 years not to mention the opportunity to sit safely and peacefully in an index fund and have generated a nice amount there to boot. Frankly, I've been an idiot. Fortunately, it shouldn't ruin my retirement. I don't know if I'll buy back in again, we'll see... but it won't be at this price unless risk is reduced and the opportunity improves. I guess myself personally, I don't see why it's worth any less now than it was at 7, 11, etc. We are a year plus down the road, people that know about Afrezza and how to effectively use it love it, we are about to get out from under SNY who sandbagged the shit out of us as well as get 100% of the profits instead of 25/35%. I get it that expenses will be 100% ours but more than likely as a smaller entity MNKD can operate a hell of a lot more efficiently than the 3 ring circus SNY can as it's just too big of an organization. The bigger a company gets generally the more wasteful they are with money. And who's to say they were being honest with the expenses MNKD had to share with them? Over the last 3 or 4 years i've purchased this from .67 cents all the way to $9 a share with a average at $3.31 per share. Maybe it's because i still have a KoolAid stain but I feel things are better now then they were 2 years ago. There is the whole cash situation but something appears to be cooking on that as nobody seems worried on the inside and high profile executives are leaving good jobs to be part of it. Just my 2 cents. Disclaimer that i've been consistently wrong on this stock for past 3 to 4 years i've been involved with it. mnkdorbust agree with your observation. Nate Pile, who recently quadrupled his position from 200,000 shares to 800,000 shares over the last several months, now rates Mannkind a strong buy under $2 and a buy under $5.
And as per Nate, without all the shorting, Mannkind should be trading at $8-$12 right now. stocktwits.com/NatesNotesIn my view, if Afrezza succeeds (no need for wild success, like 5 billion annual sales, etc., just a mild success, say annual sales of $500 million to $1 billion within several few years, which is totally achievable), based on Afrezza alone, Mannkind will be worth $5-$10 billion, which translates to $10-$20 a share. Giving it a some discount for time value, etc., $5-$7 a share is very reasonable. Think about it, by the time Sanofi terminated the partnership agreement, Sanofi was only able to attract 6,000 people to try out Afrezza. Give it a year, I think it is totally doable for Mannkind to attract 60,000 people to try out Afrezza using its own efforts, with the help of VDEX diabetics care and others. That alone will grow the Trx by 10 times.
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Post by james on Mar 18, 2016 14:52:50 GMT -5
I have to include myself in that category. I have probably lost $150K here in the past 10 years not to mention the opportunity to sit safely and peacefully in an index fund and have generated a nice amount there to boot. Frankly, I've been an idiot. Fortunately, it shouldn't ruin my retirement. I don't know if I'll buy back in again, we'll see... but it won't be at this price unless risk is reduced and the opportunity improves. I guess myself personally, I don't see why it's worth any less now than it was at 7, 11, etc. We are a year plus down the road, people that know about Afrezza and how to effectively use it love it, we are about to get out from under SNY who sandbagged the shit out of us as well as get 100% of the profits instead of 25/35%. I get it that expenses will be 100% ours but more than likely as a smaller entity MNKD can operate a hell of a lot more efficiently than the 3 ring circus SNY can as it's just too big of an organization. The bigger a company gets generally the more wasteful they are with money. And who's to say they were being honest with the expenses MNKD had to share with them? Over the last 3 or 4 years i've purchased this from .67 cents all the way to $9 a share with a average at $3.31 per share. Maybe it's because i still have a KoolAid stain but I feel things are better now then they were 2 years ago. There is the whole cash situation but something appears to be cooking on that as nobody seems worried on the inside and high profile executives are leaving good jobs to be part of it. Just my 2 cents. Disclaimer that i've been consistently wrong on this stock for past 3 to 4 years i've been involved with it. I wholly agree with you on Sanofi and the true costs to market. What they were spending and charging to the MNKD loan seems rather excessive. I expect that the costs for manufacturing and a basic marketing program can be achieved for a combined $60-80M annually. Also, clearly the drug works very well for many folks. So, if you can sustain that for a couple of years while traction builds, there is certainly hope. The problem is that so far with very limited exception, the doctors, payers and patients don't give a darn. Is that a pricing problem, an awareness problem or a (perceived) lung risk problem? Who knows? But, sales revenue at the peak were coming in under $18M annually and are now down to $10M annually, so MNKD is set to lose a significant amount on the Afrezza program as well as overhead and research etc. I would estimate that totals out to at least a $100M loss this year and probably something similar or perhaps greater the next. Milestone payments from RLS and potential cash upfront from an international partner will help, but not nearly enough. Granted this can turn around. Perhaps cutting price and having VDEX achieve some successes will be enough to generate new interest. In that case there is a path for the company to succeed; cash becomes easier to obtain and more resources can be put to build marketing. But, you can't go on losing money in perpetuity and hold a lofty valuation. There has to be a time when you can project that revenues exceed costs or it's worth $0. I won't go on about cash, but barring the wholesale sale of TS technology, the only good places for this to come are a Sanofi settlement or a miracle gift from Al. All other options are going to hurt.
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Post by james on Mar 18, 2016 15:02:34 GMT -5
agree with your observation. Nate Pile, who recently quadrupled his position from 200,000 shares to 800,000 shares over the last several months, now rates Mannkind a strong buy under $2 and a buy under $5.
And as per Nate, without all the shorting, Mannkind should be trading at $8-$12 right now. stocktwits.com/NatesNotesIn my view, if Afrezza succeeds (no need for wild success, like 5 billion annual sales, etc., just a mild success, say annual sales of $500 million to $1 billion within several few years, which is totally achievable), based on Afrezza alone, Mannkind will be worth $5-$10 billion, which translates to $10-$20 a share. Giving it a some discount for time value, etc., $5-$7 a share is very reasonable. Think about it, by the time Sanofi terminated the partnership agreement, Sanofi was only able to attract 6,000 people to try out Afrezza. Give it a year, I think it is totally doable for Mannkind to attract 60,000 people to try out Afrezza using its own efforts, with the help of VDEX diabetics care and others. That alone will grow the Trx by 10 times. Perhaps it would be surprising to know that I agree with Nate that wild success is not necessary. $500M in sales would certainly support a strong multi-billion valuation. I just think the risk of execution failure is way to high to be calling it a strong buy at $2. That's probably enough from me for now - good luck to you all!
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Post by stevil on Mar 18, 2016 15:49:08 GMT -5
Mar 18, 2016 11:17:07 GMT -7 stevil said: Glad the longs are recouping some of their losses. I got in around 1.40 range because I think this will run til 4/5. Not sure if I'll sell then or not.Take the money and run. If there is any mistake I have repeated too often in my life it is being unwilling to take a fast profit and be happy. In what way could MNKD possibly be worth $1.5 - $2B as your price target suggests? It's on track to lose $100M or more per year in perpetuity even if it is still in business next year, only hype and hope are holding it up at the moment. A week ago it was just over $1 and the only thing that has changed is that they hired a marketing manager. I hear ya, and believe me, there probably hasn't been a bigger skeptic of this stock than me over the 8 months or so. I know the "right" move would be to take profits and run. However, if we are afforded a runway, it'll be the last chance we'll probably ever have to get shares at this price. Right now, 10k buys you 5000 or so shares. If I take profits and run, and this goes to $10 or so, that same 10k only gets you 1000 shares. So I'd lose out on a multiple of 5 by selling (or maybe only 3 if it does indeed go up to $3). Matt hasn't won me over with his confidence, although it does have me intrigued that our new CCO would leave a well-paying position with far more security to chase after what many analysts have written off as a pipe dream. If there's one thing I don't bet against, it's the motivation of determined and talented people. There's very little doubt in my mind that if they are given enough money for 3 years or so that they'll get this thing straightened out. So really, it really only boils down to one thing in my mind. Will they simply be able to survive long enough to figure this out? I used to think no, but I'll admit that there is more reason to think "yes" than "no" right now. I'm not sure how so many on here are finding so much comfort in Matt telling us he can't disclose his plan... but there is one, especially when he's been a leader in the company for several years. I do get the sense, though, that he has had a different vision for MNKD the whole time and it was either Hakan or Al that didn't agree. He just seems completely emboldened in a different way. That much you can't fake. So maybe it is Matt's confidence and maybe it is the board's optimism that is causing my change of heart. Maybe it's the recent momentum back to the top that's making me euphoric. I'd already written off all the money I'd invested in this company. I think at the most I would sell the extra I just put in for a profit and keep the original investment in and let it ride. A lot to think about, for sure. Not nearly as black and white as I was expecting...
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Post by tayl5 on Mar 18, 2016 16:58:11 GMT -5
I would even argue that we don't have to do $500M, just show steady commercial traction and progress toward that goal. That's not going from 500 scripts to 1000 scripts, it has to be more than that, but strong monthly growth and no obvious roadblocks will get us to a much healthier stock price where financing without too much dilution is possible. While it's tempting to reduce risk by selling some shares now at a less-awful price, I'd hate to look back in ten years if MannKind is successful and think about what could have been.
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