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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 19, 2016 10:41:15 GMT -5
Posted this previously but wanted to get some more opinions so created a new thread.
I did a little calculation on the potential VDEX impact to script numbers.
Hours of operation: 8 to 8 = 12
Days per week: 6
Staffing Doc: 1
Staffing Nurse: 2 ( initial asses & spiro test)
Reception: 1
Admin: 1 (insurance processing)
Avg Appointment w Nurse: 30 min
Avg Review/Script Issue w Doc: 15 min
Weekly max new scripts is restricted be the doc at approx: 72 × 4 = 288
Annual Scripts w one Doc: 14400 (Trx + Nrx)
Now need to knock off the count:
Not there for Afrezza Related: 50% (guess)
not applicable (COPD + Smoker): 10% (guess)
Affordability: 15% (lowered price 2600 /yr)
Leaves 25% or 3600 scripts annually or approx 72 scripts per week.
(Previous estimate was 1300 annually).
The point of this estimation (feel free to play with the numbers) is that one VDEX outlet is not going to make that much of a difference to the script count.
OOG
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 10:43:42 GMT -5
It takes some time to build up patient base. So your calculations are towards 100%?
Also at the current rate even 50 scripts a week is 10% increase
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Post by patten1962 on Mar 19, 2016 10:53:30 GMT -5
Posted this previously but wanted to get some more opinions so created a new thread. I did a little calculation on the potential VDEX impact to script numbers. Hours of operation: 8 to 8 = 12 Days per week: 6 Staffing Doc: 1 Staffing Nurse: 2 ( initial asses & spiro test) Reception: 1 Admin: 1 (insurance processing) Avg Appointment w Nurse: 30 min Avg Review/Script Issue w Doc: 15 min Weekly max new scripts is restricted be the doc at approx: 72 × 4 = 288 Annual Scripts w one Doc: 14400 (Trx + Nrx) Now need to knock off the count: Not there for Afrezza Related: 50% (guess) not applicable (COPD + Smoker): 10% (guess) Affordability: 15% (lowered price 2600 /yr) Leaves 25% or 3600 scripts annually or approx 72 scripts per week. (Previous estimate was 1300 annually). The point of this estimation (feel free to play with the numbers) is that one VDEX outlet is not going to make that much of a difference to the script count. OOG We have an established diabetic clinic at our Hospital. Been around for a long time. Services three hospitals. See about 800 patients a month. Not sure if that helps you. |
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Post by elv344800 on Mar 19, 2016 14:50:16 GMT -5
You may want to keep in mind that the plan here is for VDEX centers to be adopted all over the country as the first 3 are breaking ground this spring.. Let them do their thing and time will tell.. Many diabetics are saying they will go a distance to get the product if its available now... Be thankful Afrezza is being released now from the dogs who tried to bury it for a year..
Costly lesson for ev1 involved in Diabetes today...
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Post by oldfishtowner on Mar 19, 2016 15:16:22 GMT -5
You may want to keep in mind that the plan here is for VDEX centers to be adopted all over the country as the first 3 are breaking ground this spring.. Let them do their thing and time will tell.. Many diabetics are saying they will go a distance to get the product if its available now... Be thankful Afrezza is being released now from the dogs who tried to bury it for a year.. Costly lesson for ev1 involved in Diabetes today... Considering that what the VDEX diabetes clinics are selling is not exclusive. As soon as they gain some visibility, if they are successful, others will copy. So VDEX will want to expand as quickly as their access to capital will allow. Either way, once the concept has a proven track record, it could spread very quickly. |
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 19, 2016 18:08:43 GMT -5
Here's my bottom line, the more successful VDEX is, the more lunches my buddy MannMade is going to buy me!  |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 19, 2016 19:05:16 GMT -5
I am having this same conversation on the other board as well.
Please do not think that I am being critical about the VDEX endeavor. I am trying to point out that one shop is only going to contribute 3600 annual scripts (14400 / 4 [90 days]) if all patients are put on Afrezza. This amounts to less than 1% of the max capacity for Danbury (500k annual prescriptions).
Calc for breakeven at Danbury is as follows and does not include any addition FDA required trials.
Current Burn rate: 120M
Retail price: 2600
Cost to Produce Annual Script: 1300 (guess)
Cost to sell (pharma, marketing):600
Net: 700 per annual prescription.
Scripts required for breakeven: 171,500 which seems to corresponds with just a little over the max cspacity of Line 1 (166k). Lines 2&3 are closer to 182k.
OOG
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2016 19:58:32 GMT -5
Retail price: 2600 Cost to Produce Annual Script: 1300 (guess) Cost to sell (pharma, marketing):600 Net: 700 per annual prescription. cost to sell per prescripton 600? thats too high if you have it baked it in for each of the 170k prescription |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 19, 2016 22:44:59 GMT -5
I am guessing that the new retail price is 2600 and that the pharmacy is taking 15% or about 400 (corrections are welcome). The company will need to do some marketing including the production/distribution of samples and literature. Then there is a sales force if they go it alone or the partners cut of the profits so guess 600 sounds to be on the light side.
Be interested if anyone knows the variable cost to produce an annual script? Think we may have derived this here previously.
OOG
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Post by patten1962 on Mar 20, 2016 8:06:44 GMT -5
Posted this previously but wanted to get some more opinions so created a new thread. I did a little calculation on the potential VDEX impact to script numbers. Hours of operation: 8 to 8 = 12 Days per week: 6 Staffing Doc: 1 Staffing Nurse: 2 ( initial asses & spiro test) Reception: 1 Admin: 1 (insurance processing) Avg Appointment w Nurse: 30 min Avg Review/Script Issue w Doc: 15 min Weekly max new scripts is restricted be the doc at approx: 72 × 4 = 288 Annual Scripts w one Doc: 14400 (Trx + Nrx) Now need to knock off the count: Not there for Afrezza Related: 50% (guess) not applicable (COPD + Smoker): 10% (guess) Affordability: 15% (lowered price 2600 /yr) Leaves 25% or 3600 scripts annually or approx 72 scripts per week. (Previous estimate was 1300 annually). The point of this estimation (feel free to play with the numbers) is that one VDEX outlet is not going to make that much of a difference to the script count. OOG We have an established diabetic clinic at our Hospital. Been around for a long time. Services three hospitals. See about 800 patients a month. Not sure if that helps you. I forgot to mention our Hospital not only sees the 800 patients per month but that is in only at three hospitals. We have other hospitals bigger than us with even more diabetic patients. Have not researched the others yet but I am guessing you can probably add another thousand plus patients to that total. My goal is to help MannKind get into these centers. As far as VDEX in our area they would be considered a competitor to my Hospital. Because of my position I could not help them here. I really do wish them well in NJ. |
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Post by suebeeee1 on Mar 20, 2016 8:34:18 GMT -5
The impact of the VDEX centers will be far greater than the centers themselves. I lived in NJ for more decades than I would like to count. NJ has an extremely dense population and quite a few wrinkle cities with tons of T2s concentrated in a small area.
"Joe" is a diabetic in LEISURE VILLAGE (no joke..real name). Joe plays cards every Friday night with 5 buddies, 3 of which are either diabetic or who have wives who are diabetic. Joe goes to VDEC and gets Afrezza. Now we all know how well it works, so suddenly we have 12 new people who know about Afrezza. Since MNKD is also going to flood the area with reps, all the other docs are going to know about Afrezza too. So...1 of Joes buddies may go into VDEC, the others are all going to demand their own docs give them Afrezza too.
So, it won't depend upon VDEC alone. They will have 400 scripts a week, but all the people influenced by VDEC Will be 4000 new scripts a week.
Thank you VDEC for getting the ball rolling!
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Post by patten1962 on Mar 20, 2016 9:09:26 GMT -5
The impact of the VDEX centers will be far greater than the centers themselves. I lived in NJ for more decades than I would like to count. NJ has an extremely dense population and quite a few wrinkle cities with tons of T2s concentrated in a small area. "Joe" is a diabetic in LEISURE VILLAGE (no joke..real name). Joe plays cards every Friday night with 5 buddies, 3 of which are either diabetic or who have wives who are diabetic. Joe goes to VDEC and gets Afrezza. Now we all know how well it works, so suddenly we have 12 new people who know about Afrezza. Since MNKD is also going to flood the area with reps, all the other docs are going to know about Afrezza too. So...1 of Joes buddies may go into VDEC, the others are all going to demand their own docs give them Afrezza too. So, it won't depend upon VDEC alone. They will have 400 scripts a week, but all the people influenced by VDEC Will be 4000 new scripts a week. Thank you VDEC for getting the ball rolling! Doctors are copycats. As soon as they see other doctors like the doctors from the Vdex Clinic using Afrezza it will take off Nationwide. All you need is an article in a medical journal or the New York Times doctors will jump on board |
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Post by lakemann on Mar 20, 2016 9:24:08 GMT -5
We desperately need tv advertising .. Without it, it's going to be painfully slow uptake.
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 20, 2016 10:43:32 GMT -5
Since MNKD is also going to flood the area with reps, all the other docs are going to know about Afrezza too. So...1 of Joes buddies may go into VDEC, the others are all going to demand their own docs give them Afrezza too. I am deeply unconvinced about the effectiveness of flooding an area with reps. It's really difficult to get in front of doctors these days and Mannkind is not a big name. The time they have for reps usually gets taken by the big pharmas who can cover variety of topics in one time slot. Word of mouth will do more, especially if they share doctors. |
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Post by peppy on Mar 20, 2016 11:15:09 GMT -5
Since MNKD is also going to flood the area with reps, all the other docs are going to know about Afrezza too. So...1 of Joes buddies may go into VDEC, the others are all going to demand their own docs give them Afrezza too. I am deeply unconvinced about the effectiveness of flooding an area with reps. It's really difficult to get in front of doctors these days and Mannkind is not a big name. The time they have for reps usually gets taken by the big pharmas who can cover variety of topics in one time slot. Word of mouth will do more, especially if they share doctors. consider vdex print adds in the local free to consumer papers? Vdex center now open Victory over Diabetes! Walk in Diabetes Care. afrezza, on the add? www.vdex.com
The website?
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