|
Post by spiro on Mar 19, 2016 15:08:24 GMT -5
Liane, the following opinion by Spiro should not be interpreted as a Spiro pump, but rather an analysis of the current situation that exists for the overzealous shorts. The shorts are currently in a very unfavorable situation caused by a combination of numerous factors that will most likely fuel the survival of MNKD until they are acquired at some time in the future. The shorts and their friends have survived and been successful by using scare tactics. They say, that the MNKD saga will end in bankruptcy. But do they really believe what they preach? Spiro doesn't think so. The shorts have a lot of things on their minds these days and most of them are not good thoughts for them. Now, Let Spiro elaborate for a moment before he bores you.
- Foremost on their minds, Afrezza really, really, really works great and the shorts know this. Unfortunately, Sanofi didn't let most Diabetics learn this fact
- Goldman Sachs suddenly long 9.7 million shares, What?
- Better communication from MNKD management?
- Cost to borrow shares at 67.7% or higher, Now that's a very bad thought, when a stock is going up rapidly.
- Some shorts getting margin calls, an even worse thought.
- Some institutions could be pulling back shares on loan. maybe we should join them.
- Anticipation of MNKD getting a new domestic partner. Start digging the hole for the shorts when this happens.
- Afrezza price drop rapidly accelerating sales. Now this a nightmare for shorts.
- Anticipation of an overseas partner or Afrezza contract. ( MNKD might need Donald Trump to make this deal ) Liane this is not intended to be political statement, only factual.
- The VDEX Diabetes Care Centers being a well thought out and strategically developed venture, could end up being a nightmare for Sanofi and their failure to competently market Afrezza. Did Sanofi even give Afrezza a chance with PCP's? Spiro tips his black hat to the VDEX partners.
- MNKD putting 5 or 6 sales reps in the VDEX center areas to hit all PCP's and Endos once per week. It all about proving what Sanofi could have done with decent effort.
- Anticipation of a cash settlement from Sanofi to make MNKD go away. The longer Sanofi waits, the more risky delay becomes. A cash settlement would be the equivalent of water boarding the shorts. Actually, Spiro is expecting $150 - $200 million. OK, this might be a soft pump.
- If MNKD share price continues to rise, the possibility of MNKD using an ATM facility to raise $150 million arises, thus ensuring 2 mores of survival. This would be disastrous for the high interest paying shorts. Indigestion time for them. BTW, Gaviscon is not strong enough.
- Fear of the unexpected, maybe an overseas partner or a real Technosphere deal. Remember, the longer a small biotech survives, the more dangerous they become to shorts.
- Babaoriley's negativity is weakening. This may not be a good thing, but the shorts don't know this.
Spiro here, Sorry to bore you with such a long post, but with MNKD, the best has yet to come.
|
|
|
Post by oldfishtowner on Mar 19, 2016 15:32:15 GMT -5
A great summary of where we are, and the possibilities that are driving our optimism. Where I disagree, is that I do not think Trump is needed for the non-US partner deal. I think it is already done. It's just that the contract can't be signed until April 5. My guess is that this is what was at the heart of the dispute between Matt and Deloitte & Touche over the impairment charges. Matt was likely of the opinion that there was little or no impairment because of the impending partnership while D&T had to go with the fact that there was no contract yet and objectively the impairment write down had to be taken.
As for the ATM or other equity offering, a good possibility if MNKD does not have enough cash on hand as a result of any deals they have closed by the end of April. I do not think MNKD will sell any shares below $4.30, however. Matt may even wait for a better price if good news send the stock soaring. How much is raised really depends on the share price since it wold be reasonable to think that Matt would try to limit the amount of dilution to 10% or less, if at all possible.
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Mar 19, 2016 15:44:04 GMT -5
thank you Spiro, I like reading your thoughts. The winds seem to be changing, a bit like when Mary Poppins comes into town. Not the ordinary counter trend rally?
Regarding Baba, my take, he hopped on and his eyeballs are popping out. Pep
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Mar 19, 2016 15:45:53 GMT -5
Spiro, I did actually doze off a couple of times while reading your "MannKind Manifesto." I wish I could even remember how it felt to be as optimistic as you are, my friend! And you are correct, my negativity is weakening, but it may strengthen again without warning other than MNKD stock retreating like a wounded hound dog. Would love to be sold out at $3.50 within one month! I would live to fling my money down another biotech rathole or two. Fun, but can be expensive. Nevertheless, a fine summary of the bright side of matters MannKind.
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Mar 19, 2016 15:49:54 GMT -5
Spiro, I did actually doze off a couple of times while reading your "MannKind Manifesto." I wish I could even remember how it felt to be as optimistic as you are, my friend! And you are correct, my negativity is weakening, but it may strengthen again without warning other than MNKD stock retreating like a wounded hound dog. Would love to be sold out at $3.50 within one month! I would live to fling my money down another biotech rathole or two. Fun, but can be expensive. Nevertheless, a fine summary of the bright side of matters MannKind. I think this this is going to the moon.
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Mar 19, 2016 16:09:32 GMT -5
Well, then, Peppy, I hope you can Fly Me to the Moon along with you and the share price!
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Mar 19, 2016 16:21:34 GMT -5
Well, then, Peppy, I hope you can Fly Me to the Moon along with you and the share price! I know you like charts. screencast.com/t/NlOZwSRDePwa ( www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/040405.asp ) consider, if price hits the 4.10 next week on heavy volume, I might be onto something here.
If my recent speculation station is true and the news somehow gets out, at this price people will jump on board. A train they have wanted to catch and a way to do it. Look out tesla, here we come.
Of course,added: there is soooooo much speculative money out there. I hope it is true. price doubled this week. wolfe waves are fast, we should know next week if price is in a wolfe.
The reason, is the demand for technosphere is real. plus they figured out how to deliver buffered technosphere for oral delivery. cannabinoid was on that patent.
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Mar 19, 2016 16:44:26 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Mar 19, 2016 17:44:05 GMT -5
Technosphere was not approved as such. The approval is for Afrezza of which the delivery mechanism is Technosphere. Each approval of a Technosphere drug makes the approval of the next one easier though.
|
|
|
Post by robsacher on Mar 19, 2016 18:20:13 GMT -5
Liane, the following opinion by Spiro should not be interpreted as a Spiro pump, but rather an analysis of the current situation that exists for the overzealous shorts. The shorts are currently in a very unfavorable situation caused by a combination of numerous factors that will most likely fuel the survival of MNKD until they are acquired at some time in the future. The shorts and their friends have survived and been successful by using scare tactics. They say, that the MNKD saga will end in bankruptcy. But do they really believe what they preach? Spiro doesn't think so. The shorts have a lot of things on their minds these days and most of them are not good thoughts for them. Now, Let Spiro elaborate for a moment before he bores you. - Foremost on their minds, Afrezza really, really, really works great and the shorts know this. Unfortunately, Sanofi didn't let man Diabetics learn this fact - Goldman Sachs suddenly long 9.7 million shares, What? - Better communication from MNKD management? - Cost to borrow shares at 67.7% or higher, Now that's a very bad thought, when a stock is going up rapidly. - Some shorts getting margin calls, an even worse thought. - Some institutions could be pulling back shares on loan. maybe we should join them. - Anticipation of MNKD getting a new domestic partner. Start digging the hole for the shorts when this happens. - Afrezza price drop rapidly accelerating sales. Now this a nightmare for shorts. - Anticipation of an overseas partner or Afrezza contract. ( MNKD might need Donald Trump to make this deal ) Liane this is not intended to be political statement, only factual. - The VDEX Diabetes Care Centers being a well thought out and strategically developed venture, could end up being a nightmare for Sanofi and their failure to competently market Afrezza. Did Sanofi even give Afrezza a chance with PCP's? Spiro tips his black hat to the VDEX partners. - MNKD putting 5 or 6 sales reps in the VDEX center areas to hit all PCP's and Endos once per week. It all about proving what Sanofi could have done with decent effort. - Anticipation of a cash settlement from Sanofi to make MNKD go away. The longer Sanofi waits, the more risky delay becomes. A cash settlement would be the equivalent of water boarding the shorts. Actually, Spiro is expecting $150 - $200 million. OK, this might be a soft pump. - If MNKD share price continues to rise, the possibility of MNKD using an ATM facility to raise $150 million arises, thus ensuring 2 mores of survival. This would be disastrous for the high interest paying shorts. Indigestion time for them. BTW, Gaviscon is not strong enough. - Fear of the unexpected, maybe an overseas partner or a real Technosphere deal. Remember, the longer a small biotech survives, the more dangerous they become to shorts. - Babaoriley's negativity is weakening. This may not be a good thing, but the shorts don't know this. Spiro here, Sorry to bore you with such a long post, but with MNKD, the best has yet to come. GReat analysis, John. I also think that the share price is going up because shorts are returning shares based on MannKind receiving back the rights to Afrezza from Sanofi in early April knowing the possibility that MannKind can then afterward announce a deal with another partnering company. The more I think about this the more comfortable I am and I think that we could see the s/p over $3 again before the end of the month.
|
|
|
Post by stevil on Mar 19, 2016 19:22:08 GMT -5
As the self-appointed voice of reason, (FYI, I have turned bullish on this stock and bought in at 1.43, I think), let's not forget that the price moving upwards has no real merit yet. My only fear is that more people will dump more money into this thinking we've now become a sure thing, or even better than 50% chance that we'll survive. I believe the poster James had a bunch of really good and neutral posts about what all we need to do still in order to become profitable. We still have to overcome a $100 million/year loss in order to turn a profit. Many people think this is an easy feat since we have a superior drug. If that were the case, big pharma wouldn't unload the bank trucks into their marketing campaigns if it wasn't necessary. I realize that a partner would help with this cost, but even if Afrezza exceeds $100 million in its first year of sales, there's no way MNKD gets the full share of the profits. Certainly we'd still be forced into a somewhat unfavorable deal as the partner would assume all the risk. Wherever there is high risk, there must be promise of high reward, otherwise no one would do it. Furthermore, our situation is not a simple 50/50 proposition and there are many, many more factors that actually are working against us to decrease our chances of success. We still need to educate doctors. We still need to get ins to cover our medication (making each unit less profitable as a consequence, making profitability "harder" to do, without taking into account the increased demand from a lower price, granted). We still need to convince diabetics that our product is better than any other out there, etc, etc. Truly, I love the optimism. Let's just not get carried away yet. There is a lot of positive momentum at the moment, but as baba said, this could all halt as quickly as it started. I just hope people aren't getting bullish hangovers and losing their wisdom and caution. May everyone only risk as much as they're comfortably able to... As mnholdem says, Good fortune to all
|
|
|
Post by lynn on Mar 19, 2016 19:52:47 GMT -5
I have a funny Mannkind story . I upgraded my IPhone in the beginning of February . Right about that time I decided I was Done looking at the SP ! Mostly because I was dreading tax day due to converting my IRA to a Roth when we were at $4 . Yep that was painful !! Not only have I lost the majority of my investment , I knew I now had to pay to Own this darn stock ./ So , I finally went back to the stock page on my phone after this board kept blowing up about the SP increasing . I was thinking you all were crazy bc my phone still showed the price at $0.90 & I could Not figure out what you all were so excited about ! I then noticed that it had not been updated since 2/12/16 ! ( this was just a few days ago !) . Since this is an app that comes with the phone I couldn't delete & reload & Verizon Tech Support was at a loss regarding helping me . Finally about 2 days ago the stocks page updated & then I understood why you all have been so Giddy ,) Maybe , I'm the new Baba who has become skeptically jaded re : anything Good ever happening with Mannkind ( particularly after going to my tax guy who I had called for advice on the conversion I did & learning that he invested about $30k back when I told him about Mannkind ./) I was dreading seeing him !! I'm not quite back to the eternal optimist I once was but now feel that all Hope is not lost I mentally wrote off the $ awhile back but I do genuinely hope that Al's baby will live on long after his passing . I had learned of his passing while in MX & it made me cry . He lived a long life & contributed more to humankind during his time here than anyone else I can think of . I was sad that he passed when things looked so bleak . I feel lucky that I was able to meet (& hug ) him once . As a Nurse ,I've become even more Spiritual & who knows but perhaps he is still pulling strings from the "other side " . They say "Truth is Stranger than Fiction " & the Mannkind story has been & still is a crazy story to watch unfold ! I strongly believe in Karma , so perhaps the tide is finally turning ... Only time will tell ... It's nice to see Spiro & Baba ! Spiro , I hope you're still enjoying the Miami heat & great health with Afrezza Namaste , Lynn
|
|
|
Post by liane on Mar 19, 2016 20:02:06 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by lynn on Mar 19, 2016 20:18:33 GMT -5
Thanks Liane , I'll check out link later ( about to watch a movie ). I already did my taxes so I assume it's too late ? It wasn't that many shares ( 1167 to be exact ,)) I think it cost me about $1300 in income tax ( still a bummer !) . The rest are in a Brokerage account but I'm a small time investor compared to most of you . I think I have about 5,400 total . But my cost average is about $5.60 . It's been painful to see the Newbies who got in sub $1 ! Hind sight is always 20/20 ./ No offense to those that got in at those prices , I don't live with regrets & considering that this was my first investment ( wth was I thinking ,)) I've sure learned a lot ! I watched "The Big Short " recently with friends & everyone was into it ! But I was the only one who understood the lingo A lesson learned well is a lesson learned the hard way . I'm wiser because of this , if I just took an investing class I think I would have been bored out of my mind ! Not so with the Mannkind story ! I wish I would have bought more at the lows , but I'm done . I have what I have & it'll be what it'll be . But I will be adding to my Roth with my after tax $ & investing for my future . Something I would have Never done before this Lynn
|
|
|
Post by spiro on Mar 19, 2016 20:21:37 GMT -5
Hi Lynn,
Spiro has also become very spiritual, he prays every night for the shorts to go straight to hell and stay there. The Miami Heat are doing very well at the moment against Lebron James and gang, but it's still in the 3rd quarter and they are only winning by 29 points. that might not be enough. OK, it was also hot in Miami today.
Spiro here, cautiously optimistic, damn that Babaoriley, Spiro should be off the charts optimistic.
|
|