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Post by kball on Apr 5, 2016 13:41:42 GMT -5
Andrea as the highest profile for one, yes.
Other employees we don't know the names of as others who may either no longer be employed by mannkind for reasons of their own, or those of Mannkinds
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 13:47:35 GMT -5
I'm not too worried about Afrezza at the moment. I'm more worried about the lack of interest in TS thus far. Theoretically, all it should take is one hit to really open the floodgates, but it seems that we also need one product to really penetrate the market to blaze the trail for the others.
Even if Afrezza eventually takes off and TS doesn't, we will be a one-trick pony and eventually die off anyway once Afrezza loses its patent.
Because we're so young, we're really leaning on Afrezza to survive. At least for the time being. Hopefully we'll hear good news about those deals you mentioned, but even the $30 million line of credit from the Mann group won't buy us more than a few months. We'd still need money to manufacture the products.
You all are more well-versed in our drug portfolio than I am, but last I had checked, it wasn't super expansive and didn't contain a novel drug. It almost seems like we need to create a market for those drugs since one doesn't exist. The only way I can think to do that would involve needing more money to show amazing study results. We need to show people why our products are better than what's already available. For whatever reason(s), an amazing graph hasn't (yet) done the trick.
We don't just need money to survive because if we get just a little, we'll just prolong the inevitable and die a slow and miserable death. We are going to need a lot of it to really flourish. I hope we get it.
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Post by peppy on Apr 5, 2016 13:51:48 GMT -5
I'm not too worried about Afrezza at the moment. I'm more worried about the lack of interest in TS thus far. Theoretically, all it should take is one hit to really open the floodgates, but it seems that we also need one product to really penetrate the market to blaze the trail for the others. Even if Afrezza eventually takes off and TS doesn't, we will be a one-trick pony and eventually die off anyway once Afrezza loses its patent. Because we're so young, we're really leaning on Afrezza to survive. At least for the time being. Hopefully we'll hear good news about those deals you mentioned, but even the $30 million line of credit from the Mann group won't buy us more than a few months. We'd still need money to manufacture the products. You all are more well-versed in our drug portfolio than I am, but last I had checked, it wasn't super expansive and didn't contain a novel drug. It almost seems like we need to create a market for those drugs since one doesn't exist. The only way I can think to do that would involve needing more money to show amazing study results. We need to show people why our products are better than what's already available. For whatever reason(s), an amazing graph hasn't (yet) done the trick. We don't just need money to survive because if we get just a little, we'll just prolong the inevitable and die a slow and miserable death. We are going to need a lot of it to really flourish. I hope we get it. stevil, did you miss the posted API of MNKD new licensing partner?
IC 005. US 006 018 044 046 051 052. G & S: pharmaceutical preparations for human use; inhalers sold pre-filled with pharmaceutical preparations; plant extracts for pharmaceutical purposes
IC 042. US 100 101. G & S: scientific and medical research relating to the diagnosis and treatment of medical conditions; scientific and medical research relating to plant extracts for pharmaceutical purposes
IC 044. US 100 101. G & S: providing a website featuring information relating to the diagnosis and treatment of medical conditions
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/4988/receptor-life-science#ixzz44ynW0ls8
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 14:00:55 GMT -5
I'll admit I haven't been spending as much time on this board as I used to. Once I met neurology, my life kind of changed haha. It kind of made me wonder why I'd complained about any other class...
I am vaguely familiar with the RLS deal, only as much as others have been raving about the cannabinoid possibilities. But yes, I do know that they have partnered with us and will give us milestone payments as well as royalties.
It's certainly a start. But how long will it take before we receive any money from that deal? No one really has any idea. I don't really understand why it should be a mystery either to reveal some of the particulars about how lucrative it will be and what MNKD expects from it. That shouldn't really tip off the competition at all and would go a long way in relieving some investor anxiety in MNKD.
I'd forgotten where I'd seen it, but one source I'd read a few years back had said that, on average, it takes $800 million- over $1 billion to research and develop a drug. We've got a long ways to go before we can turn into the company we hope to become. Deals like these will significantly delay the process, unless they blaze the TS trail for us and penetrate the market so that the rest of our portfolio can.
Unless it's been hush hush, we can't even afford to complete a superiority trial or pediatric trial. It takes a lot of money to succeed in this market. I remember hearing/reading one of Al's comments that he was surprised how much more expensive it was going to be than he'd originally thought.
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Post by peppy on Apr 5, 2016 14:11:00 GMT -5
I'll admit I haven't been spending as much time on this board as I used to. Once I met neurology, my life kind of changed haha. It kind of made me wonder why I'd complained about any other class... I am vaguely familiar with the RLS deal, only as much as others have been raving about the cannabinoid possibilities. But yes, I do know that they have partnered with us and will give us milestone payments as well as royalties. It's certainly a start. But how long will it take before we receive any money from that deal? No one really has any idea. I don't really understand why it should be a mystery either to reveal some of the particulars about how lucrative it will be and what MNKD expects from it. That shouldn't really tip off the competition at all and would go a long way in relieving some investor anxiety in MNKD. I'd forgotten where I'd seen it, but one source I'd read a few years back had said that, on average, it takes $800 million- over $1 billion to research and develop a drug. We've got a long ways to go before we can turn into the company we hope to become. Deals like these will significantly delay the process, unless they blaze the TS trail for us and penetrate the market so that the rest of our portfolio can. Unless it's been hush hush, we can't even afford to complete a superiority trial or pediatric trial. It takes a lot of money to succeed in this market. I remember hearing/reading one of Al's comments that he was surprised how much more expensive it was going to be than he'd originally thought. I'll say it right out, like this board doesn't get it left on every page, ad nauseam. IF, huge if, the industry (cannabis) is going to develop the CBD's into a dosage controlled anti epileptic in Washington state, the present state and federal laws now would allow that. A cash rich industry to be working with, that is my latest and greatest theory on survival plans.
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Post by sccrbrg on Apr 5, 2016 14:23:25 GMT -5
Down .14 and counting. It's only going to get worse as the runway continues to disappear. |
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Post by nylefty on Apr 5, 2016 14:25:17 GMT -5
I'd forgotten where I'd seen it, but one source I'd read a few years back had said that, on average, it takes $800 million- over $1 billion to research and develop a drug. We've got a long ways to go before we can turn into the company we hope to become. Yes, and MannKind has already spent about that much to research and develop Afrezza. So that part of the job has been done. As for researching and developing whatever drug or drugs RLS is working on, that will cost MannKind nothing and from all indications the RLS backers have the money to do it. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Apr 5, 2016 14:29:20 GMT -5
I'm not too worried about Afrezza at the moment. I'm more worried about the lack of interest in TS thus far. Theoretically, all it should take is one hit to really open the floodgates, but it seems that we also need one product to really penetrate the market to blaze the trail for the others. Even if Afrezza eventually takes off and TS doesn't, we will be a one-trick pony and eventually die off anyway once Afrezza loses its patent. Because we're so young, we're really leaning on Afrezza to survive. At least for the time being. Hopefully we'll hear good news about those deals you mentioned, but even the $30 million line of credit from the Mann group won't buy us more than a few months. We'd still need money to manufacture the products. You all are more well-versed in our drug portfolio than I am, but last I had checked, it wasn't super expansive and didn't contain a novel drug. It almost seems like we need to create a market for those drugs since one doesn't exist. The only way I can think to do that would involve needing more money to show amazing study results. We need to show people why our products are better than what's already available. For whatever reason(s), an amazing graph hasn't (yet) done the trick. We don't just need money to survive because if we get just a little, we'll just prolong the inevitable and die a slow and miserable death. We are going to need a lot of it to really flourish. I hope we get it. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Apr 5, 2016 14:29:58 GMT -5
Stevil - when does Aftezza's patent expire?
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Post by peppy on Apr 5, 2016 14:36:02 GMT -5
I'd forgotten where I'd seen it, but one source I'd read a few years back had said that, on average, it takes $800 million- over $1 billion to research and develop a drug. We've got a long ways to go before we can turn into the company we hope to become. Yes, and MannKind has already spent about that much to research and develop Afrezza. So that part of the job has been done. As for researching and developing whatever drug or drugs RLS is working on, that will cost MannKind nothing and from all indications the RLS backers have the money to do it. andrea there, I can only image her intellect.
remember as well the oral technosphere formulation as well had CBD on the patent.
What I do not know. question, all based on if. if; does the formulation need FDA approval if sold in marijuana pharmacy? could it be sod in a marijuana pharmacy?
perhaps we should move that discussion to another thread.
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 14:40:43 GMT -5
I'd forgotten where I'd seen it, but one source I'd read a few years back had said that, on average, it takes $800 million- over $1 billion to research and develop a drug. We've got a long ways to go before we can turn into the company we hope to become. Yes, and MannKind has already spent about that much to research and develop Afrezza. So that part of the job has been done. As for researching and developing whatever drug or drugs RLS is working on, that will cost MannKind nothing and from all indications the RLS backers have the money to do it. I'm sure that's true. I forgot what someone said the royalty amount was going to be. I thought I'd read high single to low double digit percentages. For the sake of simplicity, RLS will have to have a $10 billion drug for us to make our next one. That's not extremely easy to do. On top of that, I don't think the 800mil to 1 bil+ included all the misses that drug companies have. Not every developed drug makes it to market. Of course, not every drug costs that much either unless you're unlucky enough to R&D the drug and then it doesn't pass the first/2nd/3rd phase trials. My point is that the reason the shorts have had their way with us is because unless we get extremely lucky, they likely won't be feeling any real pain for a long time. And just because the lights are still on in the business doesn't mean it's actually really alive. It just means it hasn't died yet. It's kind of like someone on life support if you want to make a medical analogy of it. |
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Post by stevil on Apr 5, 2016 14:44:53 GMT -5
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Post by peppy on Apr 5, 2016 15:17:00 GMT -5
Down .14 and counting. It's only going to get worse as the runway continues to disappear. ok, I hear you. I know what you are saying. the way I see the patents, they are valuable. the news today was terrible. my version, mnkd gets afrezza rights back, sanofi in charge of sales and distribution until july. no news, chit news, and price held tight on low volume. more than two times off it's lows of .67 cents in the sanofi sell off. I get the idea of a counter trend move and short covering. screencast.com/t/2dyYIU2CYH I also get the patents to a point. one more thing, there is sooooo much money out there as you know.
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Post by _neil on Apr 5, 2016 15:25:09 GMT -5
I'm in the camp of "bankruptcy is imminent".
My biggest red flag is the continuing drop in refill rate. Outside of the sandbox of Afrezza fans that led me to believe this drug is effective, the general population in the open market seems uninterested in going back for their refills.
I can buy the reasons of the new prescriptions not picking up speed (SNY sandbagging, ineffective campaign etc.) but how come the people on the A train already are dropping off?
Before anyone says price and the sunset of SNY discounts, I am sure if the drug was as good as I thought it was (emphasis on myself- no one held a gun to my head) I would assume the total prescriptions won't drop off this bad.
I liquidated ~90% of my position when I was pissed at the management but now I believe it wasn't the companies (SNY or MNKD) that killed Afrezza but the drug itself is, even in the best case, deservedly non-inferior. I wish it wasn't so damn expensive to short the company.
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Post by tayl5 on Apr 5, 2016 15:59:28 GMT -5
You might want to take another look at the refill numbers, neil. They've been staying pretty steady in the low 200s. The new prescriptions have been tailing off and the overall totals are way too low, but your concern that users are not re-upping is misplaced.
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