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Post by nylefty on Apr 5, 2016 16:02:06 GMT -5
I'm in the camp of "bankruptcy is imminent". My biggest red flag is the continuing drop in refill rate. What are you talking about? I recently said in another thread that I was encouraged that the refill rate had NOT dropped off. Look at the Symphony chart. The total number of refills in the four weeks reported in March was 20 percent HIGHER than it was six months earlier, in the four weeks reported in September! mnkd.proboards.com/attachment/download/1795 |
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Post by peppy on Apr 5, 2016 16:54:33 GMT -5
I'd forgotten where I'd seen it, but one source I'd read a few years back had said that, on average, it takes $800 million- over $1 billion to research and develop a drug. We've got a long ways to go before we can turn into the company we hope to become. Yes, and MannKind has already spent about that much to research and develop Afrezza. So that part of the job has been done. As for researching and developing whatever drug or drugs RLS is working on, that will cost MannKind nothing and from all indications the RLS backers have the money to do it. It hasn't escaped me that you have given the testimonial evidence your consideration and your determination. I am wow'ed. Pep
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Post by nylefty on Apr 5, 2016 17:45:53 GMT -5
Yes, and MannKind has already spent about that much to research and develop Afrezza. So that part of the job has been done. As for researching and developing whatever drug or drugs RLS is working on, that will cost MannKind nothing and from all indications the RLS backers have the money to do it. It hasn't escaped me that you have given the testimonial evidence your consideration and your determination. I am wow'ed. Pep
Thanks Pep and many thanks for your valuable contributions to this board. |
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Post by _neil on Apr 7, 2016 12:42:55 GMT -5
I'm in the camp of "bankruptcy is imminent". My biggest red flag is the continuing drop in refill rate. What are you talking about? I recently said in another thread that I was encouraged that the refill rate had NOT dropped off. Look at the Symphony chart. The total number of refills in the four weeks reported in March was 20 percent HIGHER than it was six months earlier, in the four weeks reported in September! mnkd.proboards.com/attachment/download/1795My apologies.. I went by the data LfD presented in SeekingAlpha. It does seem like he's cherrypicking his data as usual but even objectively, the prescription rates do not look like they bode well. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 7, 2016 13:38:04 GMT -5
What are you talking about? I recently said in another thread that I was encouraged that the refill rate had NOT dropped off. Look at the Symphony chart. The total number of refills in the four weeks reported in March was 20 percent HIGHER than it was six months earlier, in the four weeks reported in September! mnkd.proboards.com/attachment/download/1795My apologies.. I went by the data LfD presented in SeekingAlpha. It does seem like he's cherrypicking his data as usual but even objectively, the prescription rates do not look like they bode well. The raw NUMBER of refills week to week is more or less holding steady. But several thousand new prescriptions have been written over the last few months (since about October), and the NUMBER of refills is only holding steady. That is NOT good. The number of refills should be going up. IOTW, it is the case that refills are dropping as a percentage of prescriptions written. |
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Post by peppy on Apr 7, 2016 14:01:40 GMT -5
I'm in the camp of "bankruptcy is imminent".My biggest red flag is the continuing drop in refill rate. What are you talking about? I recently said in another thread that I was encouraged that the refill rate had NOT dropped off. Look at the Symphony chart. The total number of refills in the four weeks reported in March was 20 percent HIGHER than it was six months earlier, in the four weeks reported in September! mnkd.proboards.com/attachment/download/1795quote neil: My apologies.. I went by the data LfD presented in SeekingAlpha. It does seem like he's cherrypicking his data as usual but even objectively, the prescription rates do not look like they bode well.
Reply: So neil, just to know how are you going to profit from this?
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Post by sweedee79 on Apr 7, 2016 14:26:05 GMT -5
I don't think SNY is walking away because Afrezza can't compete in the market place. I think SNY is walking away because the new CEO of SNY did not share the vision of the game-changer Afrezza could be, and he lacked the determination to to show that to the world. It is not about simply being able to compete in the market place - it was my hope that we had a game changer technology that would change the market place. The move by Sanofi tells we that is not the case. Do we have a niche technology with great advantages for some - or a game changer breakthrough. I see nothing in recent events that says we have a game changer breakthrough. Bob How do you know that we don't have a game changer technology when so few even know about it or have tried it.?.. Sanofi FAILED ... the attempts to market Afrezza were miniscule ... most docs and patients in this country don't even know about it.. many have never heard of it... how can you put so much credence in what Sanofi did?? Explain to me and others on this board why Afrezza works so well and yet Sanofi made just about no attempt to do anything with it... How can you make these inferences while ignoring all of the other facts??? Afrezza IS a game changer... that is a fact.. whether or not it will be recognized is another question and that depends on many factors all of which rests on MNKD at the moment.. |
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Post by stevil on Apr 7, 2016 14:29:54 GMT -5
peppy et all,
The following is my opinion. I hope you choose not to take it personally or take offense to anything, although the following might be offensive.
There is no conspiracy going on with Afrezza. There are no paid bashers for this stock. There might be people who come on here with the intent to rile you all up because you're so passionate about Afrezza and some people really enjoy pushing buttons to get a rise out of people, but I can assure you, even if these minions existed, they're not nearly as plentiful as you think. These "FUDsters" would maybe gain a dollar for their efforts in the stock market if they caused you to sell your shares.
MNKD is where it is because Afrezza sales are lacking and we have no real cash flow, and currently, no communicated plan for how we're going to survive past the end of the year. Paid bashers would not be responsible for this. I know the sentiment here is that there is this massive campaign out to smear Afrezza, and while that might be partially true, it's not unique to MNKD. Every company has hit pieces against them. I think you all notice them so much more regarding MNKD because you follow this stock so closely. Every stock that I have followed in the past has people who complain about manipulation, hit pieces, MM corruption, etc. It's just the system we are forced to play in. Where there is money to be made, people will do what it takes to make money. MNKD had a target on its back from the start because the shorts correctly identified all the "FUD" early on. It was much clearer to them long ago than it is to some of us even today. Kudos to them for figuring it out. Shame on some of us for still being too stubborn to try.
I think it's dangerous to assume this massive conspiracy exists because it becomes the scapegoat for all the negative things about this stock. Facts and truths have been mislabeled as FUD instead of facts and truths. Sometimes people just express their opinions about things, especially analysts who get paid to do it. The trick is to dissect truth from lies, and so far the MNKD faithful hasn't done a tremendous job of that and the "FUDsters" have. The Street doesn't tell doctors how to prescribe. The Street doesn't tell diabetics not to be interested in inhaled insulin. The Street is the effect of both of those things, not the cause.
I'm not saying that this can't all change and we won't have our day in the sun. But I find that good information sometimes falls on deaf ears around here and it's really sad. This board has been interesting in the sense that people have assumed a battleground identity. It's an "us against them" mentality. You're forced to pick a side as either long or short and that stance defines who you are and whether someone will like you or not. You're not allowed to be a hopeful long with questions about how MNKD will solve this issue or that issue that are actually causing you to be a short because you're not seeing enough evidence of effective problem solving from management and/or a viable market for your drug. And heaven forbid, if you make a mistake or miscommunicate a point, you get eaten alive.
Ha, can't we all just get along? Can't we all have opinions and have civil discourse? Can't we exchange viewpoints and challenge each other with our assertions? I don't take issue with anyone whose viewpoint is different than mine as long as they have solid reasoning to back up their beliefs. I wish others felt the same...
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Post by peppy on Apr 7, 2016 14:42:16 GMT -5
Reply: The conspiracy to get rid of Afrezza showed it's self when it was priced three times higher than the latest and greatest subq fast acting. No insurance coverage. With single payor coverage $500 dollars a month or more, it is difficult for many. Then the physicians. repeating myself, "I have never seen physicians stiffen up like that." Sweedee proved that when push comes to shove, you can get it... then the cost,,,
I do not believe the physician is all knowing. (Eric Nussbaum the best physician/surgeon I have ever met. ) I do believe you know physiology forwards and back wards. Acute so different than chronic. Best of luck to you Stevil, you get to evaluate the mechanism of action. (for the rest of your life) May you choose the correct one.  |
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Post by stevil on Apr 7, 2016 14:56:36 GMT -5
I took some time out to do some research. media.mmm-online.com/documents/119/pharma_report_2015_29732.pdfLook at page 41, or for ease, control + F to find novolog/humalog. novolog and variants (1.9B +1.6B)= $3.5B in revenue in 2015 humalog and variants (1.7B + 1.4B)= $3.1B in revenue in 2015 now, here's the fun part. (not really. I get no fun from this... but I want to try to open eyes with it) If I'm reading this correctly, it says that last year $164million in sales for Apidra in 2015. money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/globenewswire/10159901.htmSo let's look at this and ask ourselves, "who has the most to lose/gain?" SNY or Novo or Lilly? SNY has the most to gain and the least to lose. This essentially 100% nullifies the argument that SNY sandbagged Afrezza because they thought it would cannibalize their market share of Apidra. What market share?! Apidra is the joke of the town as far as RAAs go. If my numbers are correct, Apidra currently owns only 2.4% of the RAA market. Novolog currently dominates the market. If SNY saw any value at all in Afrezza, they'd have been fools to throw it away. This leaves me with the only conclusion (and again, just my opinion!) that the juice wasn't worth the squeeze to SNY. It wasn't worth it to them to sink in the money necessary to steal market share away from their competitors. Maybe it was the 65% profit sharing part that did us in... who knows? Again, I think the stronger argument isn't that they "sandbagged" Afrezza, but that they're letting it go to whomever else would want it. If they truly saw immense value in Afrezza, they wouldn't have allowed one of their competitors to scoop it up. I'm sorry if that seems negative to anyone else, but feel free to give a counterargument. If you're going to say that SNY didn't try to market Afrezza (not disputing that... they certainly didn't do a full scale launch), please give me reasons why they wouldn't have. Please try to make sense of why they'd allow Afrezza to fall to whomever wanted it. The longer I'm in this stock, the more it becomes apparent to me that we've got a thoroughbred dog that just won't hunt. The only people who believe in it are ourselves, but we're incapable of getting the drug to the finish line on our own. Stuck between a rock and a hard place... |
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Post by stevil on Apr 7, 2016 15:06:26 GMT -5
Reply: The conspiracy to get rid of Afrezza showed it's self when it was priced three times higher than the latest and greatest subq fast acting. No insurance coverage. With single payor coverage $500 dollars a month or more, it is difficult for many. Then the physicians. repeating myself, "I have never seen physicians stiffen up like that." Sweedee proved that when push comes to shove, you can get it... then the cost,,,
I do not believe the physician is all knowing. I do believe you know physiology forwards and back wards. Acute so different than chronic. Best of luck to you Stevil, you get to evaluate the mechanism of action. (for the rest of your life) May you choose the correct one. Peppy, I'm not your enemy! Thank you for your kind response. I hope mine are just as sweet. I know my tone isn't always the best in my writing, so I apologize ahead of time for that. I try my best to not be offensive, but I'm far from a politician. I don't know how to make my words palatable to my listeners. I just say whatever is on my mind without thinking about how they're received and sometimes it leaves them open to interpretations I'm not intending. Anyway, I don't think the outrageous pricing was intended to sandbag Afrezza. I think it's clear that SNY had an idea of what they wanted for Afrezza and they wanted it to be about what they'd get from each Apidra script. Might have been bad business sense, but I don't think it was malicious. No insurance coverage has more to do with the insurance companies not wanting to pay what SNY wanted for it. Again, more to do with the juice not being worth the squeeze to SNY. They probably figured they could create a more profitable drug with all the money they'd eventually invest in Afrezza. That's a red flag to me in the sense that they didn't think enough of Afrezza to essentially become the novolog of the prandials. The physicians stiffening up fits very well within my thesis. SNY probably found out early on how much resistance there was to an inhaled insulin and knew it'd be an incredible uphill battle from the start. I've been saying from the beginning that I didn't think Afrezza was sandbagged as much as SNY didn't think it would have been worth the trouble to turn the tide and properly educate every physician about the benefits of Afrezza vs the misconceptions. Absolutely, just about any patient can get their physician to prescribe whatever medication they want, within reason. Obviously the drug has to match the symptoms. But any good physician will tell you their opinion on the matter, tell you why a certain drug would probably be better for you, but if you want a certain drug, it's not really up to the physician how to handle your care. It's also up to you. They should be willing to work with you as long as they feel you're understanding and well-informed about the dangers of doing things "your way". There is such thing as refusal of care... This would be a variant of that in my opinion. And yes, I still think Afrezza is the best prandial insulin out there. But it doesn't matter what I think... Not yet anyway. I highly doubt I'll go into either primary care or endocrinology, so it's highly unlikely I'll ever prescribe Afrezza (unless I do EM), but there is no debate from me that this is far and away the best prandial insulin on the market. Let's hope we can somehow gain momentum quickly enough in either the diabetic community or medical community (although hopefully both!) before we run out of money. |
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Post by patryn on Apr 7, 2016 15:15:44 GMT -5
SNY has the most to gain and the least to lose. This essentially 100% nullifies the argument that SNY sandbagged Afrezza because they thought it would cannibalize their market share of Apidra. What market share?! Apidra is the joke of the town as far as RAAs go. If my numbers are correct, Apidra currently owns only 2.4% of the RAA market. Novolog currently dominates the market. If SNY saw any value at all in Afrezza, they'd have been fools to throw it away. This leaves me with the only conclusion (and again, just my opinion!) that the juice wasn't worth the squeeze to SNY. It wasn't worth it to them to sink in the money necessary to steal market share away from their competitors. Maybe it was the 65% profit sharing part that did us in... who knows? Again, I think the stronger argument isn't that they "sandbagged" Afrezza, but that they're letting it go to whomever else would want it. If they truly saw immense value in Afrezza, they wouldn't have allowed one of their competitors to scoop it up. I'm sorry if that seems negative to anyone else, but feel free to give a counterargument. If you're going to say that SNY didn't try to market Afrezza (not disputing that... they certainly didn't do a full scale launch), please give me reasons why they wouldn't have. Please try to make sense of why they'd allow Afrezza to fall to whomever wanted it. The longer I'm in this stock, the more it becomes apparent to me that we've got a thoroughbred dog that just won't hunt. The only people who believe in it are ourselves, but we're incapable of getting the drug to the finish line on our own. Stuck between a rock and a hard place... The juice might very well not be worth the squeeze for SNY. They are a huge conglomerate with many different drugs that they are pushing. Sales reps by their nature will sell the things that most easily gets them their commission. Having to educate the customer, and build a long term market is hard work and something that will only be done by someone who is hungry for the business. For SNY, they could easily just throw the deal away and blame it on the previous management after the regime change, without needing to invest far more time and effort to get the proper education of endos, pcps, and diabetics themselves to see that this is truly a game changer in treatment for diabetes. Now that MNKD has to rely on themselves, back to the wall, and no additional lifelines, we will either see the true mettle of a scrappy underdog grabbing market share from huge competitors, or we will see the promise of Afrezza wither away and die, and with it the promise of more technosphere treatments for many other maladies. I never liked the SNY deal as I felt it gave away too much of the farm, and quite frankly having SNY walk away having paid $200 million (and possibly more to settle the whole thing) to kick the tires and test drive is not necessarily a bad thing. I stay invested because I believe in the long term potential of the MNKD and I want to see other partnership arrangements that can now be worked out now that SNY decided to terminate the deal. If I find that no such plans are forthcoming in 2016, then I will readily admit my mistake and move on. I will say I found a two month hiatus from these boards to be rather refreshing. I didn't have to constantly worry when we hit our sub $1 lows and hopefully I won't sell before we reach escape velocity. |
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Post by stevil on Apr 7, 2016 15:18:45 GMT -5
welcome back patryn!
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Post by kbrion77 on Apr 7, 2016 15:34:37 GMT -5
peppy et all, The following is my opinion. I hope you choose not to take it personally or take offense to anything, although the following might be offensive. There is no conspiracy going on with Afrezza. There are no paid bashers for this stock. There might be people who come on here with the intent to rile you all up because you're so passionate about Afrezza and some people really enjoy pushing buttons to get a rise out of people, but I can assure you, even if these minions existed, they're not nearly as plentiful as you think. These "FUDsters" would maybe gain a dollar for their efforts in the stock market if they caused you to sell your shares. MNKD is where it is because Afrezza sales are lacking and we have no real cash flow, and currently, no communicated plan for how we're going to survive past the end of the year. Paid bashers would not be responsible for this. I know the sentiment here is that there is this massive campaign out to smear Afrezza, and while that might be partially true, it's not unique to MNKD. Every company has hit pieces against them. I think you all notice them so much more regarding MNKD because you follow this stock so closely. Every stock that I have followed in the past has people who complain about manipulation, hit pieces, MM corruption, etc. It's just the system we are forced to play in. Where there is money to be made, people will do what it takes to make money. MNKD had a target on its back from the start because the shorts correctly identified all the "FUD" early on. It was much clearer to them long ago than it is to some of us even today. Kudos to them for figuring it out. Shame on some of us for still being too stubborn to try. I think it's dangerous to assume this massive conspiracy exists because it becomes the scapegoat for all the negative things about this stock. Facts and truths have been mislabeled as FUD instead of facts and truths. Sometimes people just express their opinions about things, especially analysts who get paid to do it. The trick is to dissect truth from lies, and so far the MNKD faithful hasn't done a tremendous job of that and the "FUDsters" have. The Street doesn't tell doctors how to prescribe. The Street doesn't tell diabetics not to be interested in inhaled insulin. The Street is the effect of both of those things, not the cause. I'm not saying that this can't all change and we won't have our day in the sun. But I find that good information sometimes falls on deaf ears around here and it's really sad. This board has been interesting in the sense that people have assumed a battleground identity. It's an "us against them" mentality. You're forced to pick a side as either long or short and that stance defines who you are and whether someone will like you or not. You're not allowed to be a hopeful long with questions about how MNKD will solve this issue or that issue that are actually causing you to be a short because you're not seeing enough evidence of effective problem solving from management and/or a viable market for your drug. And heaven forbid, if you make a mistake or miscommunicate a point, you get eaten alive. Ha, can't we all just get along? Can't we all have opinions and have civil discourse? Can't we exchange viewpoints and challenge each other with our assertions? I don't take issue with anyone whose viewpoint is different than mine as long as they have solid reasoning to back up their beliefs. I wish others felt the same... I respect this post and your opinion. I think some around here may take your posts as kicking a man while their down and that you're not on the "right" side of the field. Bottom line is that both SNY and MNKD failed in 2015. I honestly have no faith MNKD can successfully market Afrezza on their own. I had the slightest faith when they hired DeSisto and then that debacle just deflated my attitude. I'm not sure if MNKD is just so unlucky or their management is just so incompetent. Like the TASE disaster, I mean of course they close that loophole (and yes I know it was a loophole) when MNKD dual-lists. I'm pretty much deflated after the entire Sanofi mess because they needed that pharma powerhouse on their side but again I do find it a little ironic how even after the Sanofi partnership agreement people still never gave Afrezza a chance to succeed from the start. Unless Matt is pulling an enormous rabbit out of his hat for cash they need to sell off Afrezza for whatever they can get to refocus on Techno. I honestly don't care if RLS is Google or Kmart at this point they need cash and revenue streams pronto. One thing is for certain if you want entertainment and drama follow this stock because good or bad it's never boring. Best of luck to all. |
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Post by stevil on Apr 7, 2016 15:41:42 GMT -5
here's the first post of this thread. I don't think I'm kicking anyone who's down. If I am, I sincerely apologize. That is not my intent in the slightest.
[Bankruptcy is] Laughable. The gap necessary to fund us for another year or two is doable in my opinion. If we are so starved for cash he deal with RLS could have been front loaded with immediate cash up front, no? Perhaps leaving more on the table long term. Furthermore. A secondary would aid us. Short stock gets beaten down, long term runway geta extended a year or so. I am very happy with my MNKD investment. Down. But no way in hell I sell. No much freakin potential in this baby.
God speed to Afrezza. And may Sanofi continue to lose market share to other insulins. Eventually being bought out by MNKD. Just kidding. Who wants to buy garbage. Haha.
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