|
Post by LosingMyBullishness on Apr 5, 2016 18:41:14 GMT -5
Has anyone a clue why the stock dropped today? I posted yesterday that I assumed a delay in the hand-over as shorts were rather cool. I was wrong. Hand-over is done. But the stock went south today and it seems that this was also some real stock sold. A mixture of traders and longs. There was a lot of hype around what was going to be announced but in the end it was just that commercialization was returned and that there was no idea what to do with it, "In the coming weeks, we will roll out more information about our commercial team for Afrezza, the resources that we are designing for patients and physicians, and our plans for the future."
At that point I suspect quite a few longs jumped ship on the grounds that with no news on the way ahead today's $1.60 doesn't look so bad (stress and risk avoidance wins!) For the remainder I suspect there were a lot of traders working on the 'buy on rumor, sell on news' maxim. We have the news so they are out. Momentum has fallen off so those traders are out as well. Right now it is time either get out or batten down the hatches and ride out the storm until the results and CC. agedhippie, Investors leaving the boat? This is a pivotal point (as SA contributors would call it) for MNKD. A fresh start. They learnt their lesson. Long term investors had been thru all the sh%t and now leaving boat. I find momo traders more convincing if I can pick one of your suggestions. Momo traders left form last rally or anticipating a second one? Borrow rate at IB also went down to 40% and then ~75%. Things got quieter for now.
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Apr 5, 2016 22:00:33 GMT -5
agedhippie, Investors leaving the boat? This is a pivotal point (as SA contributors would call it) for MNKD. A fresh start. They learnt their lesson. Long term investors had been thru all the sh%t and now leaving boat. I find momo traders more convincing if I can pick one of your suggestions. Momo traders left form last rally or anticipating a second one? Borrow rate at IB also went down to 40% and then ~75%. Things got quieter for now. I think the momo traders are easily the bulk, the trading equivalent of hot money I also think some longs may have left. Those who were waiting to see what was announced today on the belief that the run up was based on leaked information and were still hoping for a rapid bounce back. My guess is that this trends downwards for a while before it picks up at the next CC. That could change if some shorts attempt to leave which I what I think we saw in the last spike, a baby short squeeze.
|
|
|
Post by sweedee79 on Apr 5, 2016 22:50:12 GMT -5
One of my hopes was that successful users would share their stories with other diabetics and usage would grow by simply multiplying success. Has your dad shared his story with anyone who has followed his lead? Spiro - how has your circle of friends grown? Bob PS: Hoping for some good news today. My dad is 75 years old and doesn't use a computer .... he stays home a lot of the time ... don't think he has a lot of contact with other people who have diabetes... though he does share his story any time he gets a chance .. Had it not been for me he would have never known about Afrezza at all.... advocating isn't my dads strong suit.. he is a stubborn retired farmer who gets frustrated very easily... and I can tell you he has been very very frustrated with the experience he has had with trying to get and stay on Afrezza... to him its simple... If you have a good medicine why do you have to go through all of this "bleep" to get it ... He tells doctors off regularly because he is sick of it .. and honestly I don't blame him..Its hard enough just having the disease much less having to deal with this.. But I can tell you that from what I have heard from doctors and other medical professionals, this is somewhat normal for a new drug launch .. There is a process new drugs go through... usually insurance coverage in the first year is difficult for any drug.. Here is another area where money talks.. Insurance companies don't like to spend anymore than they have to, so the move made by SNY to launch Afrezza at such a high price was a huge mistake.. lowering the price will improve insurance coverage..and also docs will be more willing to prescribe. We have been through all of this ad nauseam on this board. . there is some very excellent word of mouth going on.. but its going to take more than that considering the complexity of the situation..... Now its time to move forward .. MNKD has been hiring new people to get this job done, so it appears to me they have a plan we are not yet privy to...... As investors we have a choice.. sell, hold .. or buy more ... its all speculation at this point .. good luck ..
|
|
|
Post by brotherm1 on Apr 6, 2016 4:01:25 GMT -5
I'm certainly no expert trader and have not even been following this stock for very long but I thought the volume that pushed us up to and over two recently was way way more high than the recent volume going down? Further I thought it might have been institutions or longs in the know that were responsible for the far majority of this upside volume as I believe the outstanding short position total has not much changed from what I can tell? And given the scenario that it would be to the best interest of the company if the stock price would be higher now - for a possible secondary offering - I would be very cautious about selling at this point in fear of forth coming news that would push the share price higher at any time; news that could be in the form of clarification of RLS payments, cash infusion from the Mann estate, a partnership, a total buyout offer...... Too much going on behind the scenes now for me to consider trying to time when good news might arrive.
|
|
|
Post by LosingMyBullishness on Apr 6, 2016 4:19:38 GMT -5
bro, I agree that selling now is rather risky. I agree with agedhippie that there will be a downwards trend, similar to the situation when MNKD has the approval but no partner. Again they have no partner and no news. I assume that this can change everyday as I believe that MNKD management has something in the making but want to wait till the dust settled after the split. And this would turn the stock price around (as long as this is not another sandbagging big player with good connections to big finance)!
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Apr 6, 2016 6:21:10 GMT -5
I'm certainly no expert trader and have not even been following this stock for very long but I thought the volume that pushed us up to and over two recently was way way more high than the recent volume going down? Further I thought it might have been institutions or longs in the know that were responsible for the far majority of this upside volume as I believe the outstanding short position total has not much changed from what I can tell? And given the scenario that it would be to the best interest of the company if the stock price would be higher now - for a possible secondary offering - I would be very cautious about selling at this point in fear of forth coming news that would push the share price higher at any time; news that could be in the form of clarification of RLS payments, cash infusion from the Mann estate, a partnership, a total buyout offer...... Too much going on behind the scenes now for me to consider trying to time when good news might arrive.hello brothern, thank you for the thoughts.
march 18 options expiry, 39 million shares went through, 23 million of which went through at two dollars. As near as I can think through, it was calls being executed. The numbers will not show up in the short covering count until?.... soon, anyway, if. heavy buying the four days prior. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MNKD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75590711300
regarding stock price; price started to move up after the rls partnership announcement. (sometimes the obvious is staring us in the face?) Although there was going to be upward price movement as the shares were covered.
My imagination on this has moved like a checker on a checker board. the imaginery highlights. short covering, (buyers) GS covered, (buyers) stopped coverage on MNKD, GS flipping positions? Buyers.
Additionally, there was a 3+ million share put/call straddle. calculating the trade controlled 6.6 million dollars of stock (at 2 dollars), a straddle. the put side already at work, the call side of interest.
Pep
reading tea leaves....
added: I have come to believe much of the naked shorting has occurred through the option market. pep
|
|
|
Post by kball on Apr 6, 2016 9:37:08 GMT -5
One of my hopes was that successful users would share their stories with other diabetics and usage would grow by simply multiplying success. Has your dad shared his story with anyone who has followed his lead? Spiro - how has your circle of friends grown? Bob PS: Hoping for some good news today. My dad is 75 years old and doesn't use a computer .... he stays home a lot of the time ... don't think he has a lot of contact with other people who have diabetes... though he does share his story any time he gets a chance .. Had it not been for me he would have never known about Afrezza at all.... advocating isn't my dads strong suit.. he is a stubborn retired farmer who gets frustrated very easily... and I can tell you he has been very very frustrated with the experience he has had with trying to get and stay on Afrezza... to him its simple... If you have a good medicine why do you have to go through all of this "bleep" to get it ... He tells doctors off regularly because he is sick of it .. and honestly I don't blame him..Its hard enough just having the disease much less having to deal with this.. But I can tell you that from what I have heard from doctors and other medical professionals, this is somewhat normal for a new drug launch ..
***SNIP*** OMG! OMG! An actual farmer's daughter!!
|
|
|
Post by hankscorpio7 on Apr 6, 2016 10:11:45 GMT -5
* Do they know it's Christmas time at allll?? Feed the wwooorrllddd... Feed the wwooorrllddd... Let them know it's Christmas time again*
Feels like the rest of the market is singing that to MNKD shareholders. No rain or rivers flowing all right. Only water flowing is the bitter sting of tears.
*. Well tonight thank god it's them instead of you*. wish I could Bono, wish I could...
|
|
|
Post by sweedee79 on Apr 6, 2016 11:30:33 GMT -5
OMG! OMG! An actual farmer's daughter!! "You Betcha" and a Swede to boot...
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Apr 6, 2016 12:04:14 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by sweedee79 on Apr 6, 2016 12:15:41 GMT -5
good guess... you are about 210 miles off... you ever watch the movie Fargo... ?
|
|
|
Post by kball on Apr 6, 2016 12:18:43 GMT -5
OMG! OMG! An actual farmer's daughter!! "You Betcha" and a Swede to boot... (choir singing...) ...at farmers only dot com
|
|
|
Post by mike0475 on Apr 6, 2016 12:44:11 GMT -5
I'm 40...dad still gets me a Hess truck
How many trucks to trade in for 2018 calls!?
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Apr 6, 2016 12:47:52 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Apr 6, 2016 13:08:43 GMT -5
good guess... you are about 210 miles off... you ever watch the movie Fargo... ? Oooooh, I'll betcha it's near a city that over the years has seen some major spring flooding and where the river runs north? Great deer hunting up there. I hunted in Kittson County for 7 years. Awesome northern lights and monster bucks.
I'm Danish, so I'd luv to have a Swede to boot (chuckle). We used to joke that the Swedes invented the toilet seat and us Danes decided it would work better if we cut a hole in it.
|
|