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Post by nylefty on Apr 6, 2016 23:46:28 GMT -5
If you try to be sure of things you're really sure about you shouldn't me making flat statements such as "The patent for Afrezza is only good until 2020," especially when your only source is an obscure Internet site that you "assumed" was correct. I was concerned that your flat statement might be true and am relieved that it's not. I was starting to worry you'd forgotten about me. If you'd have kept reading, you'd have seen where I stated later in the post you referenced that I wasn't sure about the patent date. I never claimed it was a certitude. I wouldn't have bothered to reply to the above if you hadn't made another false statement. No, you did NOT say anywhere in your original post in this thread that you weren't sure about the date. You made a flat statement, which sure sounded like "certitude," without quoting anybody or expressing any doubt. Here's what you said, in its entirety: The patent for Afrezza is only good until 2020. I don't know how much that patent protects, whether that be just the binding of insulin to FDKP, the manufacturing process, etc. There are ways to extend patents to give us more time with it, but depending on how much the patent protects, it might be possible that Afrezza will be fairly worthless in just 4 years if a competing generic becomes available. I have no idea if a generic manufacturer will sink in the money necessary to figure out FDKP, but it's a possibility.
Point is, Afrezza probably shouldn't be looked to as a long-term solution for money. I wouldn't mind selling it off at this point if it will help us develop the rest of our portfolio. It'd almost make sense to get what we can for it and move on, depending on how difficult it is to get market acceptance. Of course, no one will want it if 2 tries were made and still no uptake.
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Post by stevil on Apr 7, 2016 0:17:44 GMT -5
Yes, I made the mistake of not cross-checking my sources. I didn't think it would turn into this, otherwise I would have done so. I was incorrect and my source was not valid. To all who read this, the correct expiration for the Afrezza patent is 2023.
My point was that we may only have a limited lifespan for Afrezza of several years. The date wasn't really all that important. It may be in our best interest for Afrezza NOT to become a blockbuster. It may be better for us to be just under the threshold of profitability for a generic manufacturer to compete with us. I would imagine developing this technology would be fairly expensive so if the ROI isn't significant, we would never have competition.
I'm unsure if the patent protects from R&D or just sales, but I'm wondering if a generic manufacturer wanted to, if they could start immediately on cracking the code so to speak so that once the expiration is up, they could immediately sell the drug. It would kind of seem likely to me that this is allowed since generic drugs hit the market as soon as the patents expire for nearly every drug I'm aware of.
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Post by lakon on Apr 7, 2016 14:53:03 GMT -5
... I'm unsure if the patent protects from R&D or just sales, but I'm wondering if a generic manufacturer wanted to, if they could start immediately on cracking the code so to speak so that once the expiration is up, they could immediately sell the drug. It would kind of seem likely to me that this is allowed since generic drugs hit the market as soon as the patents expire for nearly every drug I'm aware of. Making pills out of stable compounds is relatively easy. Stabilizing (insulin human) monomers in a usable form is not so easy. It's obviously going to take MNKD a while to develop the market. MNKD hoped that Pfizer would have done so with Exubera, but they gave up. Now, MNKD has to develop the market and protocols. Until MNKD is clearly on track to make Afrezza a blockbuster, I don't think any other BP's are going down the rabbit hole to copy inhaled insulin. I seriously doubt a generic manufacturer would attempt such a feat. Even the Chinese probably know better. GSK is looking at other dry powders since they seem to realize that stabilizing hormones could be profitable. Most will probably only awaken from their BP slumber after Afrezza drinks their milkshake. This is the way of the world. Few ever see the next big thing coming until it came and went. Do you know how Martin Shkreli's business model worked for buying a generic and raising the price? It takes time to ramp up even when everyone knows how to make it. You can thank the FDA for that. |
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Post by stevil on Apr 7, 2016 15:13:30 GMT -5
... I'm unsure if the patent protects from R&D or just sales, but I'm wondering if a generic manufacturer wanted to, if they could start immediately on cracking the code so to speak so that once the expiration is up, they could immediately sell the drug. It would kind of seem likely to me that this is allowed since generic drugs hit the market as soon as the patents expire for nearly every drug I'm aware of. Making pills out of stable compounds is relatively easy. Stabilizing (insulin human) monomers in a usable form is not so easy. It's obviously going to take MNKD a while to develop the market. MNKD hoped that Pfizer would have done so with Exubera, but they gave up. Now, MNKD has to develop the market and protocols. Until MNKD is clearly on track to make Afrezza a blockbuster, I don't think any other BP's are going down the rabbit hole to copy inhaled insulin. I seriously doubt a generic manufacturer would attempt such a feat. Even the Chinese probably know better. GSK is looking at other dry powders since they seem to realize that stabilizing hormones could be profitable. Most will probably only awaken from their BP slumber after Afrezza drinks their milkshake. This is the way of the world. Few ever see the next big thing coming until it came and went. Do you know how Martin Shkreli's business model worked for buying a generic and raising the price? It takes time to ramp up even when everyone knows how to make it. You can thank the FDA for that. I see your point about starting development now to figure out how to stabilize monomeric insulin. However, we've given people an incredible head start. They know the molecule that can do it (FDKP). Now they just have to figure out how... it now becomes a physics experiment, and there are a ton of brilliant minds out there. I agree with you that Afrezza would have to make it big for a generic copy cat to get made. I thought I'd stated that point in my post but maybe not... The good thing about our portfolio is that it SHOULD only take one drug making it big to pave the way for the others. Hopefully once people get used to inhaling medicine and realize the benefits of it, it'll make adoption of the other meds that much easier. But yes, hopefully Afrezza either makes ridiculous amounts of money, and very quickly before the patent runs out... like several billions of dollars, or only makes enough to not even be worth it to a generic manufacturer to figure it out so we can be the only company that sells inhaled insulin for decades... Although I think stem cells will be curing diseased pancreases before too long. |
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Post by longstocking on Apr 7, 2016 16:05:52 GMT -5
... I'm unsure if the patent protects from R&D or just sales, but I'm wondering if a generic manufacturer wanted to, if they could start immediately on cracking the code so to speak so that once the expiration is up, they could immediately sell the drug. It would kind of seem likely to me that this is allowed since generic drugs hit the market as soon as the patents expire for nearly every drug I'm aware of. Making pills out of stable compounds is relatively easy. Stabilizing (insulin human) monomers in a usable form is not so easy. It's obviously going to take MNKD a while to develop the market. MNKD hoped that Pfizer would have done so with Exubera, but they gave up. Now, MNKD has to develop the market and protocols. Until MNKD is clearly on track to make Afrezza a blockbuster, I don't think any other BP's are going down the rabbit hole to copy inhaled insulin. I seriously doubt a generic manufacturer would attempt such a feat. Even the Chinese probably know better. GSK is looking at other dry powders since they seem to realize that stabilizing hormones could be profitable. Most will probably only awaken from their BP slumber after Afrezza drinks their milkshake. This is the way of the world. Few ever see the next big thing coming until it came and went. Do you know how Martin Shkreli's business model worked for buying a generic and raising the price? It takes time to ramp up even when everyone knows how to make it. You can thank the FDA for that. |
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Post by sweedee79 on Apr 8, 2016 22:44:52 GMT -5
Yes, I made the mistake of not cross-checking my sources. I didn't think it would turn into this, otherwise I would have done so. I was incorrect and my source was not valid. To all who read this, the correct expiration for the Afrezza patent is 2023. My point was that we may only have a limited lifespan for Afrezza of several years. The date wasn't really all that important. It may be in our best interest for Afrezza NOT to become a blockbuster. It may be better for us to be just under the threshold of profitability for a generic manufacturer to compete with us. I would imagine developing this technology would be fairly expensive so if the ROI isn't significant, we would never have competition. I'm unsure if the patent protects from R&D or just sales, but I'm wondering if a generic manufacturer wanted to, if they could start immediately on cracking the code so to speak so that once the expiration is up, they could immediately sell the drug. It would kind of seem likely to me that this is allowed since generic drugs hit the market as soon as the patents expire for nearly every drug I'm aware of. I think you should sell Stevil.. honestly I really do... It isn't that you are bringing facts to the board that people don't like.. it is your attitude or the way you say things.. Just about everything you say is something negative .. I think everyone wants the facts pro and con... but it is all in the way you present it .. You seem to have no belief in MNKD at all.... I mean no disrespect but I don't think the problem is necessarily this board .. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 8, 2016 23:02:22 GMT -5
Yes, I made the mistake of not cross-checking my sources. I didn't think it would turn into this, otherwise I would have done so. I was incorrect and my source was not valid. To all who read this, the correct expiration for the Afrezza patent is 2023. My point was that we may only have a limited lifespan for Afrezza of several years. The date wasn't really all that important. It may be in our best interest for Afrezza NOT to become a blockbuster. It may be better for us to be just under the threshold of profitability for a generic manufacturer to compete with us. I would imagine developing this technology would be fairly expensive so if the ROI isn't significant, we would never have competition. I'm unsure if the patent protects from R&D or just sales, but I'm wondering if a generic manufacturer wanted to, if they could start immediately on cracking the code so to speak so that once the expiration is up, they could immediately sell the drug. It would kind of seem likely to me that this is allowed since generic drugs hit the market as soon as the patents expire for nearly every drug I'm aware of. I think you should sell Stevil.. honestly I really do... It isn't that you are bringing facts to the board that people don't like.. it is your attitude or the way you say things.. Just about everything you say is something negative .. I think everyone wants the facts pro and con... but it is all in the way you present it .. You seem to have no belief in MNKD at all.... I mean no disrespect but I don't think the problem is necessarily this board .. He continually second guesses himself. IMO |
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Post by mnholdem on Apr 9, 2016 6:54:16 GMT -5
Reminds me of several managers I've hired fresh out of college. When it came to practical application of their education?
Let's just say that they only know this much: |×××××|… but think they know: |××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××|.
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Post by stevil on Apr 9, 2016 11:18:12 GMT -5
Reminds me of several managers I've hired fresh out of college. When it came to practical application of their education? Let's just say that they only know this much: |×××××|… but think they know: |××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××|. Going for the heart. Sort of expected more from a moderator, but that's fine... I am young and I'll find my way. No doctor is molded in their first year. I haven't even entered a hospital in my new capacity. But I have been learning science at a graduate level in a multitude of fields. Not many on here can say that so criticism seems kind of comical, if I'm being honest. Who is the one thinking they know more than they do when they say they know more than someone who is actually being educated to know these things? I've never claimed to know more than I do and I've always welcomed people to counter my arguments. The only responses I get to my arguments are personal attacks and condescending posts. I guess I should expect as much when it comes from the top down... The culture of this board is broken. I came here with the intent to try to share what I knew, challenge false info (Afrezza would cure diabetes) and to temper down the damaging optimism that found more people scooping up even more shares on a continuing basis and encouraging others to do the same. My heart has somewhat hardened towards this board in a way. I don't wish ill upon anyone, but if it comes to some of you, you'll have no one to blame but yourselves. Although I'm willing to bet it'll just be SNY, FUDsters, or hit pieces that take the fall. Nevermind that people have been warning you since the beginning that exactly what happened would happen. I hope for everyone's sake that this does turn around and I'll think back and smile on most of my time here. But I enjoy arguing a little too much apparently and I'd rather focus my time and efforts elsewhere. I envision the scene with William Wallace when he realizes that Robert the Bruce has switched sides on him. When even the moderators jump into the cesspool, what can you expect of the board? This board won't be what I want it to be and I'll accept that and move on. Thanks for all who have shared good info and have argued their points with dignity and grace. Thank you to all who have challenged my thinking and corrected me when I misspoke. Thank you to kball for the laughs Thank you patryn for not being such a homer and being able to eloquently express your thoughts without being rude. Your absence was missed and welcome back. Thank you peppy for all your informative posts, even though I didn't understand what you were saying half the time  Thanks to all who privately messaged me and encouraged me to be your voice. I'm tired of wasting my breath. Thanks to sportsrancho for seeming as beautiful on the inside as you are on the outside. Even though I know you disagreed with me, you were always kind. Thank you mnholdem for all the good info you used to bring. For reading all my garbage even when you didn't want to and for finally giving me the push I needed to quit wasting my time on here. Thanks to thekindaguyiyam and nylefty for always making me feel so attractive and never letting me feel like I was alone. And finally, thank you liane for providing a forum for us to disagree on. Hundreds and thousands of people have this opportunity because of you. I'm sorry if this seems dramatic, but I will miss my time on here. I'm not meaning to make a scene for my sake... It just feels appropriate to me to say goodbye. It's been fun butting heads with some of you and learning from others. I'm sure many on here will say good riddance to me and that's OK May we all see the beauty in life outside of money. And may MNKD recover and make everyone at least whole if not multiples more. May this board not be hostile but informative. Maybe it can be realized in my absence. Goodbye all. Thanks for the memories! |
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Post by stevil on Apr 9, 2016 11:24:31 GMT -5
Yes, I made the mistake of not cross-checking my sources. I didn't think it would turn into this, otherwise I would have done so. I was incorrect and my source was not valid. To all who read this, the correct expiration for the Afrezza patent is 2023. My point was that we may only have a limited lifespan for Afrezza of several years. The date wasn't really all that important. It may be in our best interest for Afrezza NOT to become a blockbuster. It may be better for us to be just under the threshold of profitability for a generic manufacturer to compete with us. I would imagine developing this technology would be fairly expensive so if the ROI isn't significant, we would never have competition. I'm unsure if the patent protects from R&D or just sales, but I'm wondering if a generic manufacturer wanted to, if they could start immediately on cracking the code so to speak so that once the expiration is up, they could immediately sell the drug. It would kind of seem likely to me that this is allowed since generic drugs hit the market as soon as the patents expire for nearly every drug I'm aware of. I think you should sell Stevil.. honestly I really do... It isn't that you are bringing facts to the board that people don't like.. it is your attitude or the way you say things.. Just about everything you say is something negative .. I think everyone wants the facts pro and con... but it is all in the way you present it .. You seem to have no belief in MNKD at all.... I mean no disrespect but I don't think the problem is necessarily this board .. Thanks for your post. I considered it when I made my decision to get off the board. I'm clearly not helping anyone and I'm only giving more time to this than I really want to. My apologies if "the way I said things" came across the wrong way. I am fairly negative toward our current status, but I haven't completely lost hope. Matt's hiring spree gives me just enough to keep interest in the stock. May your dad keep finding success on Afrezza. I hope he keeps progressing in his disease. |
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Post by slapshot on Apr 9, 2016 13:55:54 GMT -5
Maybe i am in the minority, but i for one have always respected your opinion Stevil and will genuinely miss your insights. Hope you reconsider. Either way good luck to you in your investments and your career.
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Apr 11, 2016 18:20:16 GMT -5
Well well well.
I hope you are all proud of yourselves.
Do you remember that movie, Revenge of the nerds? Hmm. Remember the end of the movie when Skolnik gave that speech? That's right, you guys are the Alpha Betas.
Que the music...
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Post by rockstarrick on Apr 11, 2016 18:31:48 GMT -5
Reminds me of several managers I've hired fresh out of college. When it came to practical application of their education? Let's just say that they only know this much: |×××××|… but think they know: |××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××|. Being one of those college graduates that at one time, had zero experience, I have to agree !! i have a saying I think we all can relate to. "You can read all the Hustler magazines in the World, but until you [Lock Horns] a few times, you're no Prince Charming"  |
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Post by nylefty on Apr 11, 2016 18:44:39 GMT -5
Well well well. I hope you are all proud of yourselves. Do you remember that movie, Revenge of the nerds? Hmm. Remember the end of the movie when Skolnik gave that speech? That's right, you guys are the Alpha Betas. Que the music... Talk about false assumptions. No, I never saw Revenge of the Nerds. Are you trying to suggest that Stevil is a nerd who will get his revenge if MannKind goes bankrupt? In any case, I've never belonged to a fraternity and have been a nerd throughout my long life. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 11, 2016 19:21:52 GMT -5
Reminds me of several managers I've hired fresh out of college. When it came to practical application of their education? Let's just say that they only know this much: |×××××|… but think they know: |××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××|. Being one of those college graduates that at one time, had zero experience, I have to agree !! i have a saying I think we all can relate to. "You can read all the Hustler magazines in the World, but until you [Lock Horns] a few times, you're no Prince Charming" Good one! Best laugh of the day:-) |
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