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Post by als57 on Apr 14, 2016 13:38:01 GMT -5
As the 19th of April rapidly approaches and news is put forth, will there be an awakening or will the stock price continue to be kept under the thumb of the "dark forces." Personally, I am beginning to suspect that the dark forces never get tired of the amount of cash they take in with their "wash and rinse" cycles. It pays for the cost of short borrowing. I hope that on the 19th, Matt "walks on water."
Other insights appreciated as to when MNKD gets out from under the boulder. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 14, 2016 13:59:21 GMT -5
As the 19th of April rapidly approaches and news is put forth, will there be an awakening or will the stock price continue to be kept under the thumb of the "dark forces." Personally, I am beginning to suspect that the dark forces never get tired of the amount of cash they take in with their "wash and rinse" cycles. It pays for the cost of short borrowing. I hope that on the 19th, Matt "walks on water."
Other insights appreciated as to when MNKD gets out from under the boulder. When Matt tells us how we are going to pay for all this marketing. Not we are not worried, we can't pre-announce a deal. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 14, 2016 15:00:41 GMT -5
As the 19th of April rapidly approaches and news is put forth, will there be an awakening or will the stock price continue to be kept under the thumb of the "dark forces." Personally, I am beginning to suspect that the dark forces never get tired of the amount of cash they take in with their "wash and rinse" cycles. It pays for the cost of short borrowing. I hope that on the 19th, Matt "walks on water."
Other insights appreciated as to when MNKD gets out from under the boulder. Probably no time soon. Even if there is some news that propels the stock higher and creates a new floor, I would suspect the high short interest and volatility would continue. Just my guess. |
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Post by BlueCat on Apr 14, 2016 15:26:35 GMT -5
Awakening?
I'm thinking- The Quickening!
There can be only one ....
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Post by matt on Apr 14, 2016 17:40:15 GMT -5
So long as Matt has a script that is believable this will be OK for a while. Ultimately, he has to deliver sales but he still has a few quarters to achieve that, but if his strategy is deemed BS by the market (such as too much emphasis on social media marketing) then the message will not be well-received and the price on the 20th will be a blood bath. If he announces a partnership of some sort, it will be the opposite story and the price will spike.
This is a great time for an option straddle. The price is unlikely to stay flat following the announcement, so buy some puts and buy some calls. Regardless of how the price moves, one option will finish out of the money for a 100% loss, but the other will more than offset the loss in profits.
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Post by bioexec25 on Apr 14, 2016 18:16:58 GMT -5
Matt, thanks much for the options strat ahead of the call, prudent call given all the uncertainty. I would have thought that the social media only stuff would have already been put to rest with the retention of the marketing firm whose model is much more holistic than just twitter, FB etc albeit I respect you said just don't put too much emphasis on SM.
But I'm wondering if we avoid the blood bath and possible even climb a bit by just laying out a solid sales and marketing plan along with some ranges of guidance on expectations. God as my witness how long has it been since we had even just a little bit of that. Granted there has been a little over heating of expectations as usual against a backdrop of hey this is just the beginning of the re-launch activities. Sometimes enthusiasts set the expectations too high as we all know. Just give us a professional, rich multi-prong approach with planning level dates and milestones coupled with a re-emphasis that BK is being taken off the table in the near-term, follow that up between call and earnings with some geographic license, RLS and SNY settlement and we are off to the races (and then some).
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Post by seanismorris on Apr 14, 2016 18:35:15 GMT -5
I expect 'Sell The News' even if the news is mildly positive.
I don't see a media blitz because there are multiple problems that need to be fixed. Insurance coverage is one of the big ones, another is showing superiority. It makes no sense to "spend big" on marketing before fixing fundamental problems. I do expect a pricing announcement for Afrezza but that's just one piece of the turnaround. It's going to take a while no matter how great the plan is...
With regards to cash, I expect them to report that they have a plan but nothing to announce yet. Shorts will attack with the bankruptcy angle.
We also can also expect an MannKind announcement that they've hired (outsourced) someone to address insurance coverage.
An SNY settlement is the wild card, but I wouldn't get overly excited until something announced. MannKind has a case, but probably not the cash and the will to pursue it.
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Post by mnholdem on Apr 14, 2016 20:15:32 GMT -5
That "sell the news" reaction has been the case following several conferences. However, I seem to remember a conference call from June 2015 in which a particularly good presentation by CFO Matt Pfeffer sent MNKD shares rallying up to $7/shares over the next week...
I think that if you truly look objectively at the questions asked by analysts over the past several conferences, you'll notice that they are simply looking for guidance - one way or another may not matter to them, as long as they have guidance. They need that guidance to determine what to recommend to their clients.
Even if he doesn't discuss ex-U.S. partnership negotiations because of Non-Disclosure Agreements, if Pfeffer provides some solid guidance, it's possible that analysts may upgrade MNKD stock. After all, they haven't really been given anything to work with for nearly two years.  |
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Post by patten1962 on Apr 14, 2016 20:58:28 GMT -5
That "sell the news" reaction has been the case following several conferences. However, I seem to remember a conference call from June 2015 in which a particularly good presentation by CFO Matt Pfeffer sent MNKD shares rallying up to $7/shares over the next week...
I think that if you truly look objectively at the questions asked by analysts over the past several conferences, you'll notice that they are simply looking for guidance - one way or another may not matter to them, as long as they have guidance. They need that guidance to determine what to recommend to their clients.
Even if he doesn't discuss ex-U.S. partnership negotiations because of Non-Disclosure Agreements, if Pfeffer provides some solid guidance, it's possible that analysts may upgrade MNKD stock. After all, they haven't really been given anything to work with for nearly two years. That would be Epic!  |
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Post by mnkdorbust on Apr 15, 2016 0:09:42 GMT -5
My Fidelity and Etrade account would like to witness an Epic Embarrassment of Riches
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Post by parrerob on Apr 15, 2016 2:48:33 GMT -5
IMO Actually only a buyout will solve in short term our PPS problem, (I am talking about going back to double digit) or good news on TS, as well (upfront or planned income but soon).
While a good marketing plan including reduction of costs for patients could have a nice impact as well (PPS going to something between 2,5$ - 4$). Keep in mind that for Afrezza it is the second round and the first was not succesfull (Yes Sanofy was quite sure involved but anycase the market will be at the window). So for the double digit "jump" We have to wait real solid sales reports... and sure it will take time anycase.
I will be happy, with a good plan both for Afrezza and TS, if We could have our PPS in the range 3$-4$ so that even a 5% dilution could give us quite a year of operational
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Post by laffs4sale on Apr 15, 2016 7:31:45 GMT -5
So long as Matt has a script that is believable this will be OK for a while. Ultimately, he has to deliver sales but he still has a few quarters to achieve that, but if his strategy is deemed BS by the market (such as too much emphasis on social media marketing) then the message will not be well-received and the price on the 20th will be a blood bath. If he announces a partnership of some sort, it will be the opposite story and the price will spike. This is a great time for an option straddle. The price is unlikely to stay flat following the announcement, so buy some puts and buy some calls. Regardless of how the price moves, one option will finish out of the money for a 100% loss, but the other will more than offset the loss in profits. Agree wholeheartedly. If no partnership is announced, MNKD is going back down and may never recover. The market doesn't want to hear about more secondary offerings and meaningless marketing plans when there is no money or infrastructure to promote them. Until insurance/education/superiority issues are fixed, no plan would work anyway. No, this stock now is an option on MNKD doing a deal with another player. And if Matt says nothing on this point, it'll be a blood bath. I honestly think the future of this company will be decided on April 19th. Given MNKD's horrendous track record, I'd give Matt a 75% chance of falling on his face. |
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Post by bradleysbest on Apr 15, 2016 8:53:57 GMT -5
Agree that if there are no POSITIVE announcements or a somewhat detailed plan for Afrezza going forward we will be back to the $1 range.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2016 11:02:13 GMT -5
That "sell the news" reaction has been the case following several conferences. However, I seem to remember a conference call from June 2015 in which a particularly good presentation by CFO Matt Pfeffer sent MNKD shares rallying up to $7/shares over the next week...
I think that if you truly look objectively at the questions asked by analysts over the past several conferences, you'll notice that they are simply looking for guidance - one way or another may not matter to them, as long as they have guidance. They need that guidance to determine what to recommend to their clients.
Even if he doesn't discuss ex-U.S. partnership negotiations because of Non-Disclosure Agreements, if Pfeffer provides some solid guidance, it's possible that analysts may upgrade MNKD stock. After all, they haven't really been given anything to work with for nearly two years. I dont believe that was from the conference. That was the start of BOA covering their shares as well as the really positive news from an analyst. That was a short squeeze last year. |
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Post by mnholdem on Apr 15, 2016 12:00:15 GMT -5
@reverselo, I respectfully disagree, but I'll at least acknowledge that several factors could have been at play in June. An analyst upgraded recommendation followed the Jeffries conference where Matt Pfeffer presented. The analyst was Shaunak Deepak, who led the questioning. You can read the transcript at this link:
MannKind's (MNKD) Management Presents at Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference www.nasdaq.com/aspx/call-transcript.aspx?StoryId=3234406&Title=mannkind-s-mnkd-management-presents-at-jefferies-global-healthcare-conference-transcript-
Shareholders may recall that this was the conference where Matt announced that 54,000 sample packs had been shipped to Sanofi and that Sanofi had requested that more sample packs be manufactured. Matt also talked about four API having been selected for development in MannKind's pipeline, which had been mothballed for years following the second CRL from the FDA and was about to become operational again.
My point above was that if Matt provides specific guidance, it can lead to positive movement in analyst upgrades and Wall Street sentiment. Following this interview and Jeffries upgrade to Buy with a $9 price target, MNKD stock rallied from $5.15 to $7.23 in a few days' time.
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I am of the opinion that next week's conference call will have the same effect and I am definitely expecting a rally to follow.
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