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Post by savzak on Mar 27, 2014 6:00:34 GMT -5
Today, five days before ADCOM and less than three weeks before PFUFA, the price per share is about $2.00 above the 52 week low and about $3.50 below the 52 week high.
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Post by jpg on Mar 27, 2014 11:06:32 GMT -5
Without having put numbers on the price action I was thinking along the same lines as you.
In my past experiences with biotechs this is very good for longs (when we get what we need from the FDA).
JPG
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 27, 2014 11:27:39 GMT -5
JPG:
Not meaning to question your call on "Good for Longs", just wanting to get your clarrification on how your coming to this opnion. MNKD and EXEL (got killed on this one yesterday) are my only Bios todate, just wanted to attempt to benefit from anothers experience.
OOG
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 27, 2014 12:05:58 GMT -5
I've got a small position in EXAS (better than current stool sample test for colon cancer/polyps) which is in AdCom today and therefore halted. No idea what's going on, as my position there doesn't warrant watching closely. But I do believe the share price has gotten hit this week. Not sure of the hype going into this, either.
Let's face it, this has been a horrible week for biotech.
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Post by spiro on Mar 27, 2014 12:28:54 GMT -5
That's exactly why we should all be hiding under our beds until tuesday.
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Post by jpg on Mar 27, 2014 12:49:17 GMT -5
JPG: Not meaning to question your call on "Good for Longs", just wanting to get your clarrification on how your coming to this opnion. MNKD and EXEL (got killed on this one yesterday) are my only Bios todate, just wanted to attempt to benefit from anothers experience. OOG I am long maybe 6 or 7 biotechs including MNKD and a very small (and getting smaller...) position in EXEL (which I might add to if things get ugly: we are not there yet at the current MC in my opinion but going in the right direction!). Maybe I misunderstand your question but my way of looking at MNKD considering: 1. the potential market opportunity of MNKD 2. the current MC of MNKD 3. the pessimism of many longs vs the arrogant comments of many short Tweets I read 4. The proximity of a final decision My 'non mathematically' and intuitive instinct basically likes this price action leading into these big decisions. A positive decision certainly isn't priced in and if it is: great. If I can buy shares of MNKD at a 2 billion MC after a positive adcom and even better positive FDA decision I will buy even more then the excessive amount I now already have. I also feel I am far from alone to think this. Basically I am saying fear is keeping longs in check and greed is ruling and think this will change very soon and if it doesn't: I will take advantage of it again after a positive decision. I would be curious to know how many of the shorts are uninformed sheeple and how many are 'sophisticated market participants'? Not that this would make much of a difference in my overall view but it could add bullet point # 5 to my list... JPG |
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Post by jpg on Mar 27, 2014 12:55:32 GMT -5
That's exactly why we should all be hiding under our beds until tuesday. I am hanging out with my family on vacation in Phnom Penh instead of under my bed... Maybe same end result: can't stare at a screen all day here. JPG |
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Post by spiro on Mar 27, 2014 14:49:10 GMT -5
I could go to Miami Beach, but I am such an awful sight in swim trunks, the authorities wouldn't let me get near the beach.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Mar 27, 2014 15:15:28 GMT -5
what if you have a water bed?
the only thing I keep under it is an old tarot deck
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