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Post by bthomas55ep on May 22, 2016 13:26:56 GMT -5
A couple posts back Matt indicated the Sanofi deal was $150M for Worldwide rights with a 35% Cost/Profit sharing arrangement....and we should be using this as a benchmark, but expect lower.
I will remind that the Sanofi deal was not $150M for the long term relationship. It was close to $1B with money coming for international applications/approvals via milestones and a 35% split. I still hold to that they could sell rights for a territory without an ongoing royalty for $100M to $$200M (for say EU, middle-east, or Asia). Still hoping for this level.
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Post by babaoriley on May 22, 2016 20:06:57 GMT -5
bthomas, problem with that scenario, is that, bottom line, we are not dealing from a position of strength and everyone knows it.
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Post by bthomas55ep on May 23, 2016 7:59:48 GMT -5
bthomas, problem with that scenario, is that, bottom line, we are not dealing from a position of strength and everyone knows it. I agree with that too. Interested companies called with two days of Sanofi canceling the agreement in January and here it is May 23rd. It is obvious, terms are difficult. If Mike C & Co. can somehow get scripts ramping up in short order with an exciting vibe, then that should bring some onlookers back out of the woodwork..... |
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Post by saxcmann on May 23, 2016 8:34:47 GMT -5
bthomas, problem with that scenario, is that, bottom line, we are not dealing from a position of strength and everyone knows it. I agree with that too. Interested companies called with two days of Sanofi canceling the agreement in January and here it is May 23rd. It is obvious, terms are difficult. If Mike C & Co. can somehow get scripts ramping up in short order with an exciting vibe, then that should bring some onlookers back out of the woodwork..... Yes, I think scripts uptick is key for negotiations to advance quickly. Leverage will move towards mnkd for sure. I will post when first sales visit comes from mnkd afrezza rep. Hopefully June sometime. |
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2016 9:08:46 GMT -5
I agree with that too. Interested companies called with two days of Sanofi canceling the agreement in January and here it is May 23rd. It is obvious, terms are difficult. If Mike C & Co. can somehow get scripts ramping up in short order with an exciting vibe, then that should bring some onlookers back out of the woodwork..... Yes, I think scripts uptick is key for negotiations to advance quickly. Leverage will move towards mnkd for sure. I will post when first sales visit comes from mnkd afrezza rep. Hopefully June sometime. Sax- Are you a Dr? |
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Post by saxcmann on May 23, 2016 9:39:39 GMT -5
Yes, I think scripts uptick is key for negotiations to advance quickly. Leverage will move towards mnkd for sure. I will post when first sales visit comes from mnkd afrezza rep. Hopefully June sometime. Sax- Are you a Dr? No. But know someone that is. |
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Post by babaoriley on May 23, 2016 12:54:39 GMT -5
You know, with the broad poster base here, there must be a few who have friends who are doctors who ought to be visited; it would be interesting and maybe even helpful to hear from you as to whether or not visits are being made.
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Post by bill on May 23, 2016 15:54:49 GMT -5
Personally, when it comes to international deals I believe MNKD is dealing with a "prisoners dilemma" situation. None of the prospects wants to take on too much risk with a large up front payment, but because everyone is risk adverse MNKD has too little cash.
If all interested parties were to aggregate their money MNKD would become flush and no longer be a bankruptcy risk. Therefore, I believe MNKD needs to negotiate with them simultaneously, much like a teenager does when they want the family car; mom says talk to your father, dad says talk to mom. Teenager gets the hint and says to mom: "If dad is agreeable would you be?", etc. And, he gets the car. MNKD just needs to get into a situation where they can say: "If three other companies put up $50 million each for their international deal, would you?"
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2016 19:12:06 GMT -5
Personally, when it comes to international deals I believe MNKD is dealing with a "prisoners dilemma" situation. None of the prospects wants to take on too much risk with a large up front payment, but because everyone is risk adverse MNKD has too little cash. If all interested parties were to aggregate their money MNKD would become flush and no longer be a bankruptcy risk. Therefore, I believe MNKD needs to negotiate with them simultaneously, much like a teenager does when they want the family car; mom says talk to your father, dad says talk to mom. Teenager gets the hint and says to mom: "If dad is agreeable would you be?", etc. And, he gets the car. MNKD just needs to get into a situation where they can say: "If three other companies put up $50 million each for their international deal, would you?" I have thought about this a lot. If MNKD did do a deal and were to go bankrupt, what happens to the deal in place with the international partner? Are they shit out of luck? Its almost like when you first start a business you take anything you can get ie Difficult jobs for cheap but its not until you become more established that you can charge more for not so ideal situations. I dont see anyone handing them any big money. Its a nice thought as it would make it such an easier road to travel but we all know thats not the MNKD road.... |
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Post by patten1962 on May 24, 2016 5:48:26 GMT -5
Personally, when it comes to international deals I believe MNKD is dealing with a "prisoners dilemma" situation. None of the prospects wants to take on too much risk with a large up front payment, but because everyone is risk adverse MNKD has too little cash. If all interested parties were to aggregate their money MNKD would become flush and no longer be a bankruptcy risk. Therefore, I believe MNKD needs to negotiate with them simultaneously, much like a teenager does when they want the family car; mom says talk to your father, dad says talk to mom. Teenager gets the hint and says to mom: "If dad is agreeable would you be?", etc. And, he gets the car. MNKD just needs to get into a situation where they can say: "If three other companies put up $50 million each for their international deal, would you?" I have thought about this a lot. If MNKD did do a deal and were to go bankrupt, what happens to the deal in place with the international partner? Are they shit out of luck? Its almost like when you first start a business you take anything you can get ie Difficult jobs for cheap but its not until you become more established that you can charge more for not so ideal situations. I dont see anyone handing them any big money. Its a nice thought as it would make it such an easier road to travel but we all know thats not the MNKD road.... Question, if a deal is done overseas. How would MannKind go BK? I am guessing and only guessing that a deal would be hundreds of millions of dollars and on top of that there would be royalties. |
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Post by avichen on May 24, 2016 6:47:49 GMT -5
patten1962, several ways.
They need to raise cash through many channels, dilution, sales, deals, licensing, new loans...etc.
Then, they may increase their production, turn products into inventory, increases the current ratio, giving temporary financial security.
There are many ways to avoid going BK at this point of time. Increasing prescription number is the top priority coz those numbers will be used to negotiate better deals.
Then may be they may nego on the deferred payments to be delayed... etc... I believe there are ways to survive, it is not the worst report I've read.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2016 9:03:31 GMT -5
I have thought about this a lot. If MNKD did do a deal and were to go bankrupt, what happens to the deal in place with the international partner? Are they shit out of luck? Its almost like when you first start a business you take anything you can get ie Difficult jobs for cheap but its not until you become more established that you can charge more for not so ideal situations. I dont see anyone handing them any big money. Its a nice thought as it would make it such an easier road to travel but we all know thats not the MNKD road.... Question, if a deal is done overseas. How would MannKind go BK? I am guessing and only guessing that a deal would be hundreds of millions of dollars and on top of that there would be royalties. Patten I hope that this company succeeds half as much as you feel it will!! lol --------> for lefty We have money good through the end of the year. The most important thing in negotiations is leverage. MNKD lacks strong leverage. I dont see anyone handing us hundreds of millions of dollars. Hope I am wrong though. |
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2016 9:04:39 GMT -5
patten1962, several ways. They need to raise cash through many channels, dilution, sales, deals, licensing, new loans...etc. Then, they may increase their production, turn products into inventory, increases the current ratio, giving temporary financial security. There are many ways to avoid going BK at this point of time. Increasing prescription number is the top priority coz those numbers will be used to negotiate better deals. Then may be they may nego on the deferred payments to be delayed... etc... I believe there are ways to survive, it is not the worst report I've read. Thats really the end of it. Increase prescriptions and a whole world of options open up for the company. |
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Post by kbrion77 on May 24, 2016 9:21:43 GMT -5
Question, if a deal is done overseas. How would MannKind go BK? I am guessing and only guessing that a deal would be hundreds of millions of dollars and on top of that there would be royalties. Patten I hope that this company succeeds half as much as you feel it will!! lol --------> for lefty We have money good through the end of the year. The most important thing in negotiations is leverage. MNKD lacks strong leverage. I dont see anyone handing us hundreds of millions of dollars. Hope I am wrong though. Honestly I know it has been a long road for all of us that have been here a while but right now is Mannkind's moment to prove Afrezza. They have enough cash for 2016 to start their own commercialization and marketing of their baby. By December if the company or sales force hasn't gained any traction or market share then the medical world is just not ready for inhaled insulin and simply put we made a bad investment. I see the twitter posts of patients CGM's set with a range of 75 to 150 and an absolute flat line of their blood sugar. This is the reason I stay with the investment, there is absolutely nothing on the planet like this product nor does anything come even close to the results that Afrezza gives. Let's hope for the patient's sake Afrezza is here to stay. |
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Post by bradleysbest on May 24, 2016 9:21:58 GMT -5
Matt continues to leave tidbits regarding the SNY termination & possible (doubtful IMO) severance payment. If SNY does pay that would be a nice bonus.....
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