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Post by wsb36 on May 27, 2016 16:30:25 GMT -5
Hi everyone,
I just wanted to poll the message board to see where everyone was at.
Thanks for participating!
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Post by kc on May 27, 2016 16:53:21 GMT -5
Within 12 months
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Post by avichen on May 27, 2016 17:19:28 GMT -5
MNKD is in disadvantage position to nego any deal now. The best strategy now is to get the numbers (rx) and the inventory (current asset) fix. You wanna sell a Ferrari at a price of a Fiat now, or sell it at a price of a Ferrari when u have all the performance record, tested that this shit is a Ferrari?
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2016 21:54:12 GMT -5
MNKD is in disadvantage position to nego any deal now. I have to respectfully disagree—MannKind has negotiated several deals since the termination with Sanofi. One of those being with Castagna. Either by way of a monietary deal or by way of exclusive information too good to pass up that he couldn't resist not being apart of company, even if it held significant risk. Amgen is a solid company with a great pipeline. I, personally, highly doubt he would give up his lucrative position with Amgen to join MannKind if MannKind were really only digging their own grave. Plus, there is only one Kent Kresa, and he is with MannKind. I don't know of many small-time biotech companies that have a Chairman of the Board that has been assigned and appointed to something directly from the POTUS. Let's not underestimate the contacts and pull this company has. |
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Post by capnbob on May 27, 2016 22:02:21 GMT -5
Can you be more specific as to what kind of "deal"?
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2016 22:11:10 GMT -5
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Post by edvarney on May 28, 2016 0:18:35 GMT -5
Yes sir, you would have to agree that Mike C makes a huge difference here in the commercial marketing side of Afrezza.
He is strong alone in what he does best, but, these 2 fellows just added as VPs are playing in such critical parts of moving Afrezza into place. These new VPs will hit the ground running and use their immediate experience with their contacts all ready established in the Medical field and expedite the movement of Afrezza into place for endusers.
Hats off to Mike and the new organization, cant wait to see excitement grow after ADA, in June.
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Post by lakon on May 28, 2016 3:08:53 GMT -5
Here's my timeline: 4th of July 2016 to 4th of July 2017 to prove Afrezza is no "Spruce Goose" either. www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWTk0Uflyk8That's the window. Either they fly or not. They have until the end of 2016 to do a deal before more dilution, maybe longer depending on sales. If the commercial organization proves itself and Afrezza's marketability, there won't be a need for a partnership, except where there are political obstacles. MannKind can figure this out within 6-12 months. Fail FAST or succeed BIG. That's why I think that they will focus deals on countries with political obstacles and significant financial resources to buy directly for their hospitals, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE, assuming they still have connections there. They would always need a local partner so no loss working this angle. They may also go after very friendly countries, like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. If the Brexit happens, add the UK to the list. The EU, and particularly the French, can wait. If I recall correctly, the Germans proved difficult for Exubera so they can wait too. The other secondary targets with political hurdles, but semi-friendly, worth attempting are Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. A lot of people don't think about Thailand, but the historical US/Thai relationship has led to it being a regional destination for medical tourism due to many US trained doctors, possibly the only good thing that came of the Vietnam War. Most drugs can be prescribed at a pharmacy by a pharmacist. Many Middle Easterners, Europeans, and Australians get medical attention there already. They could pick up a year's supply of Afrezza at a regional hub while on their annual vacation. Afrezza is already reaching the US territories of Guam and Saipan, not that far away, but many won't want or be able to enter the US. If I am not mistaken, MannKind performed some trials in Thailand. |
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Post by hawaiiguy42 on May 28, 2016 7:37:18 GMT -5
Opps, my bad.
I tend to agree, why? Matt P and Mike C have the pedal to the metal to which July will be the determining factor in regards to succeeding or absolute failure. July will be the milestone that goes into the history books.
By the way, I tripled down on shares during the past 2 months... my confidence level is higher than ever. If mid-year or end of year PPS goes to $3., $5., or $7., do I sell... hell no. I can wait 3 more years and sell at $15., $20, or even $50. PPS!
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Post by avichen on May 28, 2016 8:05:17 GMT -5
I will only consider exit if it goes below 0.30, if it flies to over 5.00, I will sell just enough to cover my buy costs. The remaining, will just see how far it can go. hopefully it surpasses Biogen...  |
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Post by agedhippie on May 28, 2016 9:21:32 GMT -5
If the Brexit happens, add the UK to the list. The EU, and particularly the French, can wait. If I recall correctly, the Germans proved difficult for Exubera so they can wait too. Europe is a two tier process - approval and then country acceptance. For example Tresiba is approved in Europe but Germany doesn't take it on cost grounds. Likewise Afrezza would need to get past NICE in the UK regardless of whether or not it was in the EU (Exubera only managed it for certified needle-phobics which is a tiny group). No country is going to take Afrezza until it takes off in the US. From their point of view why would you want a drug that doesn't even sell in it's home market? The foreign market is a distraction for now, we need to fix the US first. |
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Post by matt on May 28, 2016 10:26:52 GMT -5
A lot depends on what you mean by "deal". The only thing you can do quickly in the pharmaceutical world is to fail. It takes two to tango and just because MNKD is eager for a deal to prop up the optics of Afrezza until they can get real progress on the business side does not mean the counterparty has the same sense of urgency. If the counterparty smells desperation they can, will, and should take advantage of that.
Everyone seems focused on foreign deals, something I have a lot of experience with (and the 3 million frequent flyer miles to prove it, I managed four businesses worldwide, except the US, with sales in over 120 countries). High value deals with up-front cash come from pharma companies eager to corner a global market, which is why Sanofi paid $150 million plus promised more if Afrezza had taken off. That is the world of big pharma; global deals which have nearly always included the US since the early 1990's. Those that do not do global deals are typically smaller family owned or regional players that behave more like pure distributors than real pharma companies because they sell mainly generics and off-patent drugs. For comparison, I would urge you to take a look at the financial returns of the big distributors (Cardinal Health, McKesson, Amerisource Bergen) who all operate on very thin profit margins, averaging about 1% of sales. Distributors are rarely hungry enough for a new product that they pay anything for the privilege of selling it because the margins simply are not there, while in pharma there are fat profits to be had. It will be exceedingly difficult to find true pharma companies willing to take on Afrezza without the US market included in the deal. It will be possible to find small local pharma companies, but they will not have the deep pockets needed to solve MNKD's financial problems.
As agedhippie noted, EU is a two step process with the EMA being the first barrier requiring a minimum of nine months to get approval (assuming everything is perfect), followed by national coverage decisions. There are 29 countries coverage by EMA approvals and there are 29 different sets of rules for national coverage decisions. It is an extremely time consuming process which sucks a lot of management energy. When I was a road warrior I was in my mid-30's to mid-40's and at times it damn near killed me because I started a 6:30AM working with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, moved on to the UK around lunch, got a short breather in the early afternoon, started again with Australia / New Zealand late in the day, and worked Japan and the rest of Asia from home in the evening. It was a grind and I had one of the industry's best international business groups supporting me (legal, logistics, finance, regulatory, manufacturing). MNKD doesn't have that kind of infrastructure and cannot be successful at managing many small international deals without it.
Like it or not, MNKD will live or die based on what they can do in the US and anything else is a distraction at this point. Matt needs to be laser focused on US sales and shareholders should encourage the entire organization to focus their efforts on increasing US prescription numbers. If that happens, the company can look at foreign expansion in a year or two; the diabetics aren't going anywhere. Bad deals can be closed quickly, good deals can be had only with time.
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Post by lakon on May 29, 2016 5:53:12 GMT -5
Here is my clarification: 1. MNKD management can walk and chew gum at the same time without losing focus. Apparently, SNY management could not. 2. MNKD management will do whatever is necessary to make Afrezza fly, like Howard Hughes and the H-4 Hercules. It is their reputation and Al Mann's on the line. That includes possibilities like a deal of some kind (maybe nothing that anyone has considered), more dilution, and/or something else entirely (including failure -- best laid plans). 3. MNKD is focused on the Afrezza launch. MattC just got his incentive to make it happen. MattP certainly can work multiple avenues for financing the future while MattC executes the launch with his team. Clearly, part of the launch involves continued funding of it. MattP and RoseA are on the hook for that. Of course, funding needs depend on how successful the launch is, how big the first RLS milestone is, how many deals are made, the pipeline R&D, etc. 4. If Afrezza starts to takeoff, MNKD will rethink their partnership options. As Afrezza gains altitude, MNKD will have less and less interest in partnerships, except where political/cultural obstacles require an in-country partner. My point was that further developing relationships in those countries is a requirement for political/cultural reasons, even if MNKD is wildly successful in the US. KentK, like Al Mann, should have a long list of relationships to tap due to foreign military sales. Of course, the US is the focus for profits, but getting volumes up is another goal to improve manufacturing margins. I expect MNKD to be very tactical with international deals. Other than getting the ball rolling, I would expect them to steer clear of regulatory hurdles, like the EU, JP, etc. unless some kind of sweetheart deal came out of nowhere, highly unlikely, except maybe JP. I believe in the long-term success of MNKD, or I would not still be here because it would be a waste of my time. Opinions vary, but only time will tell. Place your bets and see. Regarding "the diabetics aren't going anywhere," some have died over the last 10 years of BS so I would not be so flippant. There are real costs to regulatory largesse and similar attitudes. These issues will be addressed in time too... kb.osu.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/1811/70934/OSLJ_V64N4_1041.pdf |
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Post by prvs on May 29, 2016 6:17:16 GMT -5
A lot depends on what you mean by "deal". The only thing you can do quickly in the pharmaceutical world is to fail. It takes two to tango and just because MNKD is eager for a deal to prop up the optics of Afrezza until they can get real progress on the business side does not mean the counterparty has the same sense of urgency. If the counterparty smells desperation they can, will, and should take advantage of that. Everyone seems focused on foreign deals, something I have a lot of experience with (and the 3 million frequent flyer miles to prove it, I managed four businesses worldwide, except the US, with sales in over 120 countries). High value deals with up-front cash come from pharma companies eager to corner a global market, which is why Sanofi paid $150 million plus promised more if Afrezza had taken off. That is the world of big pharma; global deals which have nearly always included the US since the early 1990's. Those that do not do global deals are typically smaller family owned or regional players that behave more like pure distributors than real pharma companies because they sell mainly generics and off-patent drugs. For comparison, I would urge you to take a look at the financial returns of the big distributors (Cardinal Health, McKesson, Amerisource Bergen) who all operate on very thin profit margins, averaging about 1% of sales. Distributors are rarely hungry enough for a new product that they pay anything for the privilege of selling it because the margins simply are not there, while in pharma there are fat profits to be had. It will be exceedingly difficult to find true pharma companies willing to take on Afrezza without the US market included in the deal. It will be possible to find small local pharma companies, but they will not have the deep pockets needed to solve MNKD's financial problems. As agedhippie noted, EU is a two step process with the EMA being the first barrier requiring a minimum of nine months to get approval (assuming everything is perfect), followed by national coverage decisions. There are 29 countries coverage by EMA approvals and there are 29 different sets of rules for national coverage decisions. It is an extremely time consuming process which sucks a lot of management energy. When I was a road warrior I was in my mid-30's to mid-40's and at times it damn near killed me because I started a 6:30AM working with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, moved on to the UK around lunch, got a short breather in the early afternoon, started again with Australia / New Zealand late in the day, and worked Japan and the rest of Asia from home in the evening. It was a grind and I had one of the industry's best international business groups supporting me (legal, logistics, finance, regulatory, manufacturing). MNKD doesn't have that kind of infrastructure and cannot be successful at managing many small international deals without it. Like it or not, MNKD will live or die based on what they can do in the US and anything else is a distraction at this point. Matt needs to be laser focused on US sales and shareholders should encourage the entire organization to focus their efforts on increasing US prescription numbers. If that happens, the company can look at foreign expansion in a year or two; the diabetics aren't going anywhere. Bad deals can be closed quickly, good deals can be had only with time. I couldn't agree more. That includes TS by the way. |
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Post by nylefty on May 29, 2016 6:58:36 GMT -5
3. MNKD is focused on the Afrezza launch. MattC just got his incentive to make it happen. MattP certainly can work multiple avenues for financing the future while MattC executes the launch with his team. Clearly, part of the launch involves continued funding of it. MattP and RoseA are on the hook for that. Of course, funding needs depend on how successful the launch is, how big the first RLS milestone is, how many deals are made, the pipeline R&D, etc. MattC? Make that MikeC. |
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