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Post by patten1962 on May 30, 2016 22:09:12 GMT -5
Being a 1099 in my past I have a understanding of medical sales.
According to Mike from meeting, team should be hitting the streets mid June. I will give a scenario then a question.
60 sales reps hit the street hypothetically June 16 let's say. Let's call them reps 1 thru 60. Rep 1 signs up 1 office week 1. Let's say the Endo wants to start 20 new patients on Afrezza. How long will it take us to see those scripts?
Now for a thought of what may happen with sales. Reps one thru 60 each sign up 1 office a week with 20 new patients a week. 1st month this is only 160 doctors out of 7000 target endo's. This works out to 3600 new scripts first month. Imho this is a low ball number. So for July and August we could see 7200 new scripts. My question to this is what would this do to the stock price? Also it would show the world Sanofi screwed us and may help with the settlement case if there is one.
Would love your thoughts on this.
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Post by mnkdfann on May 30, 2016 22:49:09 GMT -5
7200 new scripts in July and August? I'd love to see it, but I'm not holding my breath.
To be honest, I am far more concerned about what happens to the share price with (say) 60 sales reps hitting the street and seeing only a nominal bump in script counts.
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Post by boomboom on May 30, 2016 23:02:20 GMT -5
I love the optimism. But it is remarks and predictions like these that allow the sell side to prey on the share price. If you feel optimistic about a future event and have an opinion, for now, keep it to yourself and see how it plays out. These posts put our share price at more risk than anything else. And allows it to be referenced by those who know how to take advantage.
Lets say we get 2600 the first month...much better than where we are now...because of this type of post it just became another underwhelming success when really it shows we are moving forward.
Lets stop shooting ourselves in the foot with these predictions. Let this stock become a success on its own. It can do it on its own
My 2c
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 23:12:26 GMT -5
I don't know what to expect but they are going to be on a tight leash. Share holders will be watching the scripts very closely each week. That epic squeeze will never happen imo but if scripts start moving in the right direction people will cover a d new investors will enter
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 23:48:28 GMT -5
its not an iphone to get it instantly.
Please put a time line for all these events -
Convince doc, doc finds target patient , Spirometry , titration pack , RX , insurance state and then can only be counted towards the TRX
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Post by straightly on May 31, 2016 0:12:30 GMT -5
Being a 1099 in my past I have a understanding of medical sales. According to Mike from meeting, team should be hitting the streets mid June. I will give a scenario then a question. 60 sales reps hit the street hypothetically June 16 let's say. Let's call them reps 1 thru 60. Rep 1 signs up 1 office week 1. Let's say the Endo wants to start 20 new patients on Afrezza. How long will it take us to see those scripts? Now for a thought of what may happen with sales. Reps one thru 60 each sign up 1 office a week with 20 new patients a week. 1st month this is only 160 doctors out of 7000 target endo's. This works out to 3600 new scripts first month. Imho this is a low ball number. So for July and August we could see 7200 new scripts. My question to this is what would this do to the stock price? Also it would show the world Sanofi screwed us and may help with the settlement case if there is one. Would love your thoughts on this.
1 office a week: doable. 20 patients a week? Totally unrealistic. Unless words get out and there are other pushers other than the doctors themselves decided to prescribe.
I used to work for a company trying to persuade physicians to prescribe generic vs. branded. We got a handful new patient a week with very low conversion rate. Often, we do not know the reason "why not". Good news is that, after the conversion, the doctor WILL keep up the good behavior.
So I will be celebrating if the first month we see 360 attributable to our sales efforts.
We HAVE to have another way to get the words out. Boots on the ground is not going to cut it, plain and simple.
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Post by peppy on May 31, 2016 1:49:54 GMT -5
I do not know much on how to be a rep. How do the reps get in to see the physicians, endocrinologist?
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on May 31, 2016 4:32:27 GMT -5
I do not go for absolute numbers. I assume that there will be a small but distinct jump in script numbers just because there are Reps out there.
But I would love to see a statistically significant change in the slope, which would be an indication that their sales team is doing a good job of convincing endos and diminishing drop out rate.
Speaking of script numbers..has anyone seen an update lately? Last one was from May 20th with NRx = 125,TRx = 328
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Post by liane on May 31, 2016 4:36:08 GMT -5
ripano was out of the office until today - so we should get #'s this AM.
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Post by patten1962 on May 31, 2016 5:25:06 GMT -5
I do not know much on how to be a rep. How do the reps get in to see the physicians, endocrinologist? 1. Cold calls. Just means walk in and see the dr. Very difficult. 2. Ada, many physicians will stop by our booth check in. MannKind will get a list of all physicians in attendance. Some will ask for reps to stop by. 3. Lunches. Many times Dr's will not see you unless you feed them! Some of you will lash out at me for this but it's very true. 4. Dr's will talk amongst themselves. Many referrals will happen like this. 5. Good reps with experience have a lot of Dr's they have long history with. Myself, I have many physicians I could just walk in and they would make time to see me. |
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Post by patten1962 on May 31, 2016 5:33:36 GMT -5
I love the optimism. But it is remarks and predictions like these that allow the sell side to prey on the share price. If you feel optimistic about a future event and have an opinion, for now, keep it to yourself and see how it plays out. These posts put our share price at more risk than anything else. And allows it to be referenced by those who know how to take advantage. Lets say we get 2600 the first month...much better than where we are now...because of this type of post it just became another underwhelming success when really it shows we are moving forward. Lets stop shooting ourselves in the foot with these predictions. Let this stock become a success on its own. It can do it on its own My 2c My guess is sales team will hit the streets with a lot of energy. Maybe seeing 3 offices per day, maybe more. One office per week signing out of 15 is very reasonable. Obviously, if they start June 15 they will need a few weeks to plan. That's why I said July and August will be the real start, imho. Even if my numbers are way off and scripts are only up by 500 come September, that is still better and going in the right direction! |
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Post by anderson on May 31, 2016 5:36:39 GMT -5
Will they wait till MNKD has the titration pack ready to distributed before they push for prescriptions? Also it would seem they need the new sample packs as well before they get the ball rolling.
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Post by patten1962 on May 31, 2016 5:39:09 GMT -5
Will they wait till MNKD has the titration pack ready to distributed before they push for prescriptions? Also it would seem they need the new sample packs as well before they get the ball rolling. I may be wrong, but I thought they said at the share holders meeting these were ready to roll with our name on the package. Please correct me if I am wrong. Ty. |
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Post by anderson on May 31, 2016 6:10:24 GMT -5
Matt said shipping Mannkind branded product in third quarter. That is pretty broad statement. Is that the begging of July or is that end of September? I assume it all depends on if they have the quantities of the titration packs and sample packs they think they will need ready for distribution. So if sample packs are what 10 days? So are ready for July then around June 19th you would start your sales reps pounding the pavement? Ada is 10-14 June. I hope they are able to meet that time frame, but as with everything else with MNKD, something always seems to go wrong, so realistically I think it will slip to later in the quarter.
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Post by patten1962 on May 31, 2016 6:20:38 GMT -5
Matt said shipping Mannkind branded product in third quarter. That is pretty broad statement. Is that the begging of July or is that end of September? I assume it all depends on if they have the quantities of the titration packs and sample packs they think they will need ready for distribution. So if sample packs are what 10 days? So are ready for July then around June 19th you would start your sales reps pounding the pavement? Ada is 10-14 June. I hope they are able to meet that time frame, but as with everything else with MNKD, something always seems to go wrong, so realistically I think it will slip to later in the quarter. This is a New Mannkind. We are not under Sanofi rule. Yes we may have some setbacks as a new Pharmaceutical company, but what was is not what is now! I keep buying stock and have faith. Some will question my judgment. Time will tell. |
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