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Post by nylefty on Jul 6, 2016 11:25:31 GMT -5
Looking at past scripts it appears Afrezza was selling for close to $600 per month? If that would continue then around 1/2 of the 40,000 scripts I stated above, or perhaps around 20,000, should get us to around cash flow even? I can't believe no one called me out on this by now. Is close to $600 per month what the scripts have been going for recently? I understand the price might be coming down somewhat, but just trying to get a good idea of what we should be hoping for in terms of future script numbers. I don't think $600 per month is sustainable. This is part of the problem the PBMs were having with Afrezza and Sanofi's pricing - analogs are around half that price. Where does this figure of $600 per month come from? According to Symphony the average prescription brings in something less than $600 and many (if not most) prescriptions are for three months, not one month. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2016 11:33:52 GMT -5
I don't have time ATM to search for this, but...
How long are the sample packs of Afrezza intended to last per patient and how many patients are they intending to cover via samples? Also, how much total supply will be used towards providing samples?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2016 11:46:44 GMT -5
I don't have time ATM to search for this, but... How long are the sample packs of Afrezza intended to last per patient and how many patients are they intending to cover via samples? Also, how much total supply will be used towards providing samples? its 180 catridge titration pack. individyal usage varies. as to how many samples / total supply - its non public info . may be we will know in of the qtr earnings calls to justify progress / low scripts reason |
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Post by brotherm1 on Jul 6, 2016 12:19:42 GMT -5
I don't think $600 per month is sustainable. This is part of the problem the PBMs were having with Afrezza and Sanofi's pricing - analogs are around half that price. Where does this figure of $600 per month come from? According to Symphony the average prescription brings in something less than $600 and many (if not most) prescriptions are for three months, not one month. Aged, I took the symphony recent total scripts and divided it into the revenue figure below it a d got around $587 or so. According to the June 20 - I hate to say it - Seeking Alpha article, the author estimated $275 per script; in which case my 40,000-50,000 scripts would be closer to getting us cash flow even barring any other forms of revenue. I suppose another way to determine what past script costs were would be to take the total amount Sanofi brought in for the first year of sales and divide the number of scripts for that period into it? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2016 12:49:07 GMT -5
Where does this figure of $600 per month come from? According to Symphony the average prescription brings in something less than $600 and many (if not most) prescriptions are for three months, not one month. Aged, I took the symphony recent total scripts and divided it into the revenue figure below it a d got around $587 or so. According to the June 20 - I hate to say it - Seeking Alpha article, the author estimated $275 per script; in which case my 40,000-50,000 scripts would be closer to getting us cash flow even barring any other forms of revenue. I suppose another way to determine what past script costs were would be to take the total amount Sanofi brought in for the first year of sales and divide the number of scripts for that period into it? have you looked here? everything you need mnkd.proboards.com/post/72584 |
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Post by nylefty on Jul 6, 2016 13:51:11 GMT -5
Where does this figure of $600 per month come from? According to Symphony the average prescription brings in something less than $600 and many (if not most) prescriptions are for three months, not one month. Aged, I took the symphony recent total scripts and divided it into the revenue figure below it a d got around $587 or so. According to the June 20 - I hate to say it - Seeking Alpha article, the author estimated $275 per script; in which case my 40,000-50,000 scripts would be closer to getting us cash flow even barring any other forms of revenue. I suppose another way to determine what past script costs were would be to take the total amount Sanofi brought in for the first year of sales and divide the number of scripts for that period into it? Again, many scripts are for three months, not one month. Under my Caremark plan I save by getting my prescriptions filled by mail order and I can only fill my prescriptions by mail if I order a three-month supply. I can not get a one-month supply by mail order. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jul 6, 2016 14:07:46 GMT -5
Aged, I took the symphony recent total scripts and divided it into the revenue figure below it a d got around $587 or so. According to the June 20 - I hate to say it - Seeking Alpha article, the author estimated $275 per script; in which case my 40,000-50,000 scripts would be closer to getting us cash flow even barring any other forms of revenue. I suppose another way to determine what past script costs were would be to take the total amount Sanofi brought in for the first year of sales and divide the number of scripts for that period into it? Again, you're wrongly assuming that all scripts are for one month. Under my Caremark plan I save by getting my prescriptions filled by mail order and I can only fill my prescriptions by mail if I order a three-month supply. I can not get a one-month supply by mail order. Tom's script for the kids is good for one year. He picks up the Afrezza every 3 months. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Jul 6, 2016 14:35:05 GMT -5
Aged, I took the symphony recent total scrips and divided it into the revenue figure below it a d got around $587 or so. According to the June 20 - I hate to say it - Seeking Alpha article, the author estimated $275 per scrip in which case my 40,000-50,000 scripts would be closer to getting us cash flow even barring any other forms of revenue. I suppose another way to determine what past scrip costs were would be to take the total amount Sanofi brought in for the first year of sales and divide the number of scripts for that period into it? have you looked here? everything you need mnkd.proboards.com/post/72584OK the data on the above supplied script link's chart shows cumulative total scrips of 19,088 through 12/25/15 and cumulative scrip revenue of $9,790,470 which equates to $512.92 per scrip. The data shown through 6/24/16 shows cumulative totals of 28,110 and $14,913,340 which equates to $530.54 per scrip. How long the scrips run for I've no idea but I'm not trying to determine how many users are buying the scrips just the average the scrip cost at this point. If we could get up to and maintain 19,088 scrips per month instead of that total over the year in 2015, and bring in the $9.8 million per month instead of over the year, we would be almost cash flow even, but that's at the $513 per script figure. But approx $513 is the past average scrip cost. |
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Post by beardawg on Jul 6, 2016 15:29:10 GMT -5
You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. I don't believe my above 40,000 - 50,000 scripts needed to be cash flow even is correct. 40,000 was based upon a monthly script selling for $300 to offset the high end of estimated current cash burn of $12M per month. I was walking the dog in 87 degree temperature under high humidity last night while firecrackers were exploding and freaking out the dog while I read matt's post indicating it is not going to be good if we don't go cash flow even before we run out of cash. That comment set me off hotter than the fireworks I was surrounded by. I sincerely apologize for passing on the frustration. Looking at past scripts it appears Afrezza was selling for close to $600 per month? If that would continue then around 1/2 of the 40,000 scripts I stated above, or perhaps around 20,000, should get us to around cash flow even? I can't believe no one called me out on this by now. Is close to $600 per month what the scripts have been going for recently? I understand the price might be coming down somewhat, but just trying to get a good idea of what we should be hoping for in terms of future script numbers. Don't forget that getting closer to cash flow even makes the cash last longer, too. Burning 2 mil a quarter is better than 12 mil. We'd be able to last 6 times as long with no further funding. |
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Post by op2778 on Jul 6, 2016 15:59:27 GMT -5
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Post by brotherm1 on Jul 6, 2016 16:21:07 GMT -5
I''m unable to understand what your point is op. What exactly are you trying to say? |
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Post by nylefty on Jul 6, 2016 16:50:00 GMT -5
I don't believe my above 40,000 - 50,000 scripts needed to be cash flow even is correct. 40,000 was based upon a monthly script selling for $300 to offset the high end of estimated current cash burn of $12M per month. I was walking the dog in 87 degree temperature under high humidity last night while firecrackers were exploding and freaking out the dog while I read matt's post indicating it is not going to be good if we don't go cash flow even before we run out of cash. That comment set me off hotter than the fireworks I was surrounded by. I sincerely apologize for passing on the frustration. Looking at past scripts it appears Afrezza was selling for close to $600 per month? If that would continue then around 1/2 of the 40,000 scripts I stated above, or perhaps around 20,000, should get us to around cash flow even? I can't believe no one called me out on this by now. Is close to $600 per month what the scripts have been going for recently? I understand the price might be coming down somewhat, but just trying to get a good idea of what we should be hoping for in terms of future script numbers. Don't forget that getting closer to cash flow even makes the cash last longer, too. Burning 2 mil a quarter is better than 12 mil. We'd be able to last 6 times as long with no further funding. Bingo. The shorts (and pessimists among the longs) seem to be assuming that sales won't increase at all and therefore we'll run out of money by the end of the year. But I'm confident that sales will increase to the point that we won't be burning anything like what the shorts are counting on. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Jul 6, 2016 21:40:16 GMT -5
Don't forget that getting closer to cash flow even makes the cash last longer, too. Burning 2 mil a quarter is better than 12 mil. We'd be able to last 6 times as long with no further funding. Bingo. The shorts (and pessimists among the longs) seem to be assuming that sales won't increase at all and therefore we'll run out of money by the end of the year. But I'm confident that sales will increase to the point that we won't be burning anything like what the shorts are counting on. Mike Catagna said at the ASM that he thought Sanofi should have had Afrezza sales between $20 and $40 million after the first year. Is he thinking MNKD will do that amount? If we were to do $40 million after 12 months, at an estimated $500 per scrip, we would be up to a cumulative 80,000 scrips or an average over 6,666 scripts per month (around 100 per sales rep and a little over 1 for each of 5,000 endos). 6,666 scrips per month at $500 per scrip would bring in $3.3M per month and put us about 1/3 of where we need to be to close to cash flow even. I would think that once the ball is rolling and doctors become more familiar with it, and the word among patients gets out, the faster the ball will roll. I think Agedhippie, the walking encyclopedia, has a good ballpark estimate of it taking about 18 months to be cash flow even or profitable. If Mike thought Sanofi could have sold up to $40M the first year, with what has been learned from Sanofi and with our reps being 100% focused on selling this one product, we might do a significant amount more than what he projected Sanofi could have done. If sales ramp up quickly above Sanofi's sales in a significant amount we'll be looking good and the share price should follow. Castagna told us to watch the scrip counts. In addition we will also have the wild cards in the hole that could produce a nice surprise (patents, licensing agreements, possibly more agreements). Castagna left a big job at Amgen knowing what he was getting into. He hired two VP's, one of which is an ex-Sanofi exec. We have a great product and great management. Perhaps we might even see a new CEO and Matt will thus be able to put more time and energy into the very important crunching of the numbers. |
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