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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2016 1:27:35 GMT -5
Today is the first day for 100% profits, correct. The first day of the rest of our lives. Haha.
Some observations.
Long time holders are expecting more dilution in 4 to 6 months.
True test begins NOW!
Was SNY really blowing smoke up
Pa0aour bu!!s. Or was it really HARD to sell Afrezza?
October will be the time where we see if Afrezza has gained traction or not.
Looking to add more!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2016 5:57:29 GMT -5
Today is the first day for 100% profits, correct. The first day of the rest of our lives. Haha. Some observations. Long time holders are expecting more dilution in 4 to 6 months. True test begins NOW! Was SNY really blowing smoke up Pa0aour bu!!s. Or was it really HARD to sell Afrezza? October will be the time where we see if Afrezza has gained traction or not. Looking to add more! No.. If you look , 100% would be q4.. There's still SNY product in the supply chain and that would be split |
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Post by anderson on Jul 5, 2016 7:52:55 GMT -5
I think Georgethenite was thinking that this is the day people will be able to get Mannkind branded product, at least in some places hence 100% of that sale.
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Post by agedhippie on Jul 5, 2016 8:53:08 GMT -5
I think Georgethenite was thinking that this is the day people will be able to get Mannkind branded product, at least in some places hence 100% of that sale. As I read the wind-down clause in the contract if that insulin is delivered via Sanofi then the split is still in operation. I am not against that since at the moment Afrezza makes a loss and the longer we can split that loss the better. |
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Post by BlueCat on Jul 5, 2016 11:46:23 GMT -5
I think Georgethenite was thinking that this is the day people will be able to get Mannkind branded product, at least in some places hence 100% of that sale. As I read the wind-down clause in the contract if that insulin is delivered via Sanofi then the split is still in operation. I am not against that since at the moment Afrezza makes a loss and the longer we can split that loss the better. I would imagine that it will be a while before net profit is realized, even at 100%. I don't think splitting is needed to book loss. What is needed STAT is cash inflow, not SNY liquidating and making channel more complex. Sooner done the better with that, IMHO. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jul 5, 2016 15:19:33 GMT -5
As I read the wind-down clause in the contract if that insulin is delivered via Sanofi then the split is still in operation. I am not against that since at the moment Afrezza makes a loss and the longer we can split that loss the better. I would imagine that it will be a while before net profit is realized, even at 100%. I don't think splitting is needed to book loss. What is needed STAT is cash inflow, not SNY liquidating and making channel more complex. Sooner done the better with that, IMHO. I think we are 18 months away from a net profit given comments on one of the conference calls last year. Booking losses is not really a concern either. My concern is the cashflow. Currently Sanofi is pay for those losses in the form of their 65% share of the losses and loan of the remaining 35%. Once we terminate the wind-up stage Sanofi steps back and that falls to us which we may want to delay until we have the channel sorted. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2016 15:37:23 GMT -5
I would imagine that it will be a while before net profit is realized, even at 100%. I don't think splitting is needed to book loss. What is needed STAT is cash inflow, not SNY liquidating and making channel more complex. Sooner done the better with that, IMHO. . Booking losses is not really a concern either. My concern is the cashflow. Currently Sanofi is pay for those losses in the form of their 65% share of the losses and loan of the remaining 35%. Once we terminate the wind-up stage Sanofi steps back and that falls to us which we may want to delay until we have the channel sorted. that was with overly estimated sales and 65/35 split - which no longer holds.. mnkd has provided an estimate of 10 to 12 mil per month including commercial organization |
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Post by agedhippie on Jul 5, 2016 16:31:33 GMT -5
I think we are 18 months away from a net profit given comments on one of the conference calls last year. Booking losses is not really a concern either. My concern is the cashflow. Currently Sanofi is pay for those losses in the form of their 65% share of the losses and loan of the remaining 35%. Once we terminate the wind-up stage Sanofi steps back and that falls to us which we may want to delay until we have the channel sorted. that was with overly estimated sales and 65/35 split - which no longer holds.. mnkd has provided an estimate of 10 to 12 mil per month including commercial organization The sales revenue is no longer split, nor is the cost of sales. Both sides of the equation moved by the same amount so I think it still holds. In the longer view it's not that important since if sales take off then any capital that needs to be raised can be done on far better terms. |
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Post by matt on Jul 5, 2016 16:53:02 GMT -5
My understanding is that EVERYTHING was split 65/35, with Sanofi funding the MNKD 35% via the debt facility. There will be some funny numbers in 2016 due to all the write-offs at the end of 2015 but none of that matters because write-offs are just accounting catching up to the cash flow (which happened years before). What does matter is that the sales force can push enough Afrezza out the door at a sufficiently high margin to break even in cash before the money runs out. If MNKD can get to cash break even, then everything else is fixable long-term. If not . . . well, that is not good.
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Post by brotherm1 on Jul 5, 2016 20:55:08 GMT -5
My understanding is that EVERYTHING was split 65/35, with Sanofi funding the MNKD 35% via the debt facility. There will be some funny numbers in 2016 due to all the write-offs at the end of 2015 but none of that matters because write-offs are just accounting catching up to the cash flow (which happened years before). What does matter is that the sales force can push enough Afrezza out the door at a sufficiently high margin to break even in cash before the money runs out. If MNKD can get to cash break even, then everything else is fixable long-term. If not . . . well, that is not good. Well matt then I'm sure you are not holding shares or you are short. I know you're mot stupid. You know there's no way in hell they will obtain the 40,000-50,000 prescriptions needed to break even before they need more cash (barring the unforeseen). You're really getting on my nerves. You know darn well they will be shooting to get the prescriptions ascending up at a good clip week to week in hopes they can go for more financing or find another partner. Anyone with common sense knows that. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jul 5, 2016 21:59:32 GMT -5
My understanding is that EVERYTHING was split 65/35, with Sanofi funding the MNKD 35% via the debt facility. There will be some funny numbers in 2016 due to all the write-offs at the end of 2015 but none of that matters because write-offs are just accounting catching up to the cash flow (which happened years before). What does matter is that the sales force can push enough Afrezza out the door at a sufficiently high margin to break even in cash before the money runs out. If MNKD can get to cash break even, then everything else is fixable long-term. If not . . . well, that is not good. Well matt then I'm sure you are not holding shares or are short. I know you're mot stupid. You know there's no way in hell they will obtain the 40,000-50,000 prescriptions needed to break even before they need more cash ,You're really getting on my nerves. You know darn well they will be shooting to get the prescriptions ascending up at a good clip week to week in hopes they can go for more financing or find another partner. Anyone with common sense knows that. You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Jul 6, 2016 10:46:43 GMT -5
Well matt then I'm sure you are not holding shares or are short. I know you're mot stupid. You know there's no way in hell they will obtain the 40,000-50,000 prescriptions needed to break even before they need more cash ,You're really getting on my nerves. You know darn well they will be shooting to get the prescriptions ascending up at a good clip week to week in hopes they can go for more financing or find another partner. Anyone with common sense knows that. You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. I don't believe my above 40,000 - 50,000 scripts needed to be cash flow even is correct. 40,000 was based upon a monthly script selling for $300 to offset the high end of estimated current cash burn of $12M per month. I was walking the dog in 87 degree temperature under high humidity last night while firecrackers were exploding and freaking out the dog while I read matt's post indicating it is not going to be good if we don't go cash flow even before we run out of cash. That comment set me off hotter than the fireworks I was surrounded by. I sincerely apologize for passing on the frustration. Looking at past scripts it appears Afrezza was selling for close to $600 per month? If that would continue then around 1/2 of the 40,000 scripts I stated above, or perhaps around 20,000, should get us to around cash flow even? I can't believe no one called me out on this by now. Is close to $600 per month what the scripts have been going for recently? I understand the price might be coming down somewhat, but just trying to get a good idea of what we should be hoping for in terms of future script numbers. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jul 6, 2016 10:55:49 GMT -5
Looking at past scripts it appears Afrezza was selling for close to $600 per month? If that would continue then around 1/2 of the 40,000 scripts I stated above, or perhaps around 20,000, should get us to around cash flow even? I can't believe no one called me out on this by now. Is close to $600 per month what the scripts have been going for recently? I understand the price might be coming down somewhat, but just trying to get a good idea of what we should be hoping for in terms of future script numbers. I don't think $600 per month is sustainable. This is part of the problem the PBMs were having with Afrezza and Sanofi's pricing - analogs are around half that price. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2016 10:58:41 GMT -5
You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. I don't believe my above 40,000 - 50,000 scripts needed to be cash flow even is correct. 40,000 was based upon a monthly script selling for $300 to offset the high end of estimated current cash burn of $12M per month. I was walking the dog in 87 degree temperature under high humidity last night while firecrackers were exploding and freaking out the dog while I read matt's post indicating it is not going to be good if we don't go cash flow even before we run out of cash. That comment set me off hotter than the fireworks I was surrounded by. I sincerely apologize for passing on the frustration. Looking at past scripts it appears Afrezza was selling for close to $600 per month? If that would continue then around 1/2 of the 40,000 scripts I stated above, or perhaps around 20,000, should get us to around cash flow even? I can't believe no one called me out on this by now. Is close to $600 per month what the scripts have been going for recently? I understand the price might be coming down somewhat, but just trying to get a good idea of what we should be hoping for in terms of future script numbers. most chronic rx is 3 month |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2016 11:10:07 GMT -5
Well matt then I'm sure you are not holding shares or are short. I know you're mot stupid. You know there's no way in hell they will obtain the 40,000-50,000 prescriptions needed to break even before they need more cash ,You're really getting on my nerves. You know darn well they will be shooting to get the prescriptions ascending up at a good clip week to week in hopes they can go for more financing or find another partner. Anyone with common sense knows that. You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. I've always liked that quote. It's precursor is also good. One can fool some men, or fool all men in some places and times, but one cannot fool all men in all places and ages. |
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