Reasons for Success 2.0
Jul 11, 2016 23:38:09 GMT -5
otherottawaguy, afrezzamiracle, and 9 more like this
Post by caltrade on Jul 11, 2016 23:38:09 GMT -5
Hello All,
I am new to this board, but definitely not to Mannkind Corporation. I have been an investor for about a year now, and hold various positions, my biggest being over 1300 $1.50 and $2.00 (majority being $1.50) strike call options for January 2018. I'm going to state some reasons that I believe that both Afrezza and Mannkind coporation will be a success.
First we will start with some factors that are different but may have been overlooked by most investors this time around. One thing that needs to be considered is the fact that Mannkind has been gaining a presence over the year in the whole diabetes community which in time keeps marginally increasing the acceptance of the drug and the technology. We all know that the drug is truly revolutionary, and will continue to be a step ahead of the curve for at least the near and forseeable future. The more it is accepted, the more it is prescribed, and the more sales we get. Each prescriber that learns to accept the drug will have influence on another such as the popular "domino effect" we all know and love. Mike Castagna actually addresses this in one of the interviews that was conducted a couple weeks ago. But heres the thing, that domino effect doesn't happen overnight, so we will leave it on the list as a factor that will take time to materialize into full potential. Lets talk about a factor that can drastically improve sales in a much shorter and less consistent time frame.
There have been various articles and much research done on the effects and possible prevention of hypoglycemia. Many important and prestigious doctors and researchers will agree on the fact that the prevention of hypoglycemia is one of the most important areas of diabetic treatment. With the results presented at the ADA conference, there will be a slew of doctors who will start prescribing Afrezza just because of this factor.
There are plenty of diabetics who suffer from this problem and will benefit greatly by the reduction and possibly even eradication of hypoglycemic events. Lets move on to the next factor that could possibly increase the sales of Afrezza on a much faster note.
The sales force of Mannkind has taken on a new responsibility of making sure that testing for spirometry is not a major issue going forward. Its really an anomaly to me that a juggernaut like Sanofi did not forsee and manage this issue during the initial launch of Afrezza. Yes, the equipment will cost around $300 USD to the offices for the doctors, but seeing as 1/3 of offices already have the devices, most doctors might agree that there are other uses of the devices that could justify the $300 price tag. Also when you put it into context $300 isn't much for a doctors office who spends hundreds of thousands of dollars on equipment and rent.
Now, maybe we can talk about an aspect that we haven't really explored yet, that being of consumer demand. I think we can all agree that once consumers start demanding the product, prescribers will need to start filling these requests or risk losing patients, and patients are essentially customers which ever way you choose to look at it. So, how will the company potentially and probably increase consumer demand? It seems like they have also started to at least address this issue by the recent partnership with the very influential JDRF foundation. "Outsulin" is also a very promising marketing campaign that I think will catch on very nicely with the younger patients. Recent developments and cues are also all pointing to the road that shows that JDRF is completely behind Mannkind and Afrezza.
Lets talk money now. Mannkinds financial troubles are very obvious and seem to be the ONLY point of attention in all of the recent articles bashing the company. While they are indeed in trouble, it really isn't as bad as most bears are making it out to be. Remember that Mannkind still has $30 million that they can get from the Mann foundation at any point in time. Also, they have milestone payments that will start trickling in from Receptor Life sciences. What about the financing that they got? It seems that some institutions had faith in Mannkind to purchase $50m worth of company stake. Realistically, the only insurance that they have on those shares are warrants. If the company becomes insolvent, then the warrants ans shares both are worth nothing. Also, the strike for those warrants is at $1.50. The institutions who bought obviously believe that this is going top be a profitable entry point under the curcumstances that the company starts selling the drug as it is anticiapated.
There are many more reasons why I believe the company and Afrezza will succeed, but It would take me much more time that I currently don't have to go over all of them. What I talked about today are just some reasons that I think may have been overlooked or underestimated by both bulls and bears.
I am new to this board, but definitely not to Mannkind Corporation. I have been an investor for about a year now, and hold various positions, my biggest being over 1300 $1.50 and $2.00 (majority being $1.50) strike call options for January 2018. I'm going to state some reasons that I believe that both Afrezza and Mannkind coporation will be a success.
First we will start with some factors that are different but may have been overlooked by most investors this time around. One thing that needs to be considered is the fact that Mannkind has been gaining a presence over the year in the whole diabetes community which in time keeps marginally increasing the acceptance of the drug and the technology. We all know that the drug is truly revolutionary, and will continue to be a step ahead of the curve for at least the near and forseeable future. The more it is accepted, the more it is prescribed, and the more sales we get. Each prescriber that learns to accept the drug will have influence on another such as the popular "domino effect" we all know and love. Mike Castagna actually addresses this in one of the interviews that was conducted a couple weeks ago. But heres the thing, that domino effect doesn't happen overnight, so we will leave it on the list as a factor that will take time to materialize into full potential. Lets talk about a factor that can drastically improve sales in a much shorter and less consistent time frame.
There have been various articles and much research done on the effects and possible prevention of hypoglycemia. Many important and prestigious doctors and researchers will agree on the fact that the prevention of hypoglycemia is one of the most important areas of diabetic treatment. With the results presented at the ADA conference, there will be a slew of doctors who will start prescribing Afrezza just because of this factor.
There are plenty of diabetics who suffer from this problem and will benefit greatly by the reduction and possibly even eradication of hypoglycemic events. Lets move on to the next factor that could possibly increase the sales of Afrezza on a much faster note.
The sales force of Mannkind has taken on a new responsibility of making sure that testing for spirometry is not a major issue going forward. Its really an anomaly to me that a juggernaut like Sanofi did not forsee and manage this issue during the initial launch of Afrezza. Yes, the equipment will cost around $300 USD to the offices for the doctors, but seeing as 1/3 of offices already have the devices, most doctors might agree that there are other uses of the devices that could justify the $300 price tag. Also when you put it into context $300 isn't much for a doctors office who spends hundreds of thousands of dollars on equipment and rent.
Now, maybe we can talk about an aspect that we haven't really explored yet, that being of consumer demand. I think we can all agree that once consumers start demanding the product, prescribers will need to start filling these requests or risk losing patients, and patients are essentially customers which ever way you choose to look at it. So, how will the company potentially and probably increase consumer demand? It seems like they have also started to at least address this issue by the recent partnership with the very influential JDRF foundation. "Outsulin" is also a very promising marketing campaign that I think will catch on very nicely with the younger patients. Recent developments and cues are also all pointing to the road that shows that JDRF is completely behind Mannkind and Afrezza.
Lets talk money now. Mannkinds financial troubles are very obvious and seem to be the ONLY point of attention in all of the recent articles bashing the company. While they are indeed in trouble, it really isn't as bad as most bears are making it out to be. Remember that Mannkind still has $30 million that they can get from the Mann foundation at any point in time. Also, they have milestone payments that will start trickling in from Receptor Life sciences. What about the financing that they got? It seems that some institutions had faith in Mannkind to purchase $50m worth of company stake. Realistically, the only insurance that they have on those shares are warrants. If the company becomes insolvent, then the warrants ans shares both are worth nothing. Also, the strike for those warrants is at $1.50. The institutions who bought obviously believe that this is going top be a profitable entry point under the curcumstances that the company starts selling the drug as it is anticiapated.
There are many more reasons why I believe the company and Afrezza will succeed, but It would take me much more time that I currently don't have to go over all of them. What I talked about today are just some reasons that I think may have been overlooked or underestimated by both bulls and bears.
