|
|
Post by spiro on Jul 15, 2016 9:27:54 GMT -5
Spiro believes that in order for MNKD's share price to make significant advancement, barring some unexpected positive development not related to Afrezza, it will be necessary for MNKD to meet certain Afrezza sales levels. After studying Sanofi's early launch numbers, Spiro has decided that he would like to see some progress in sales by week 12 of MNKD's launch. At week 12, SNY only had 210 NRX and 257 TRx. It appears that Sanofi was only achieving about a 20% refill rate. Spiro's definition of progress is focused not only only on NRx numbers but mostly on the need to reach 50- 75% or higher refill rates. Spiro believes that Afrezza's new packaging will be likely the key to MNKD reaching and easily beating Sanofi's refill rates. Spiro is very confident that Mike and Matt have the pieces in place and the proper strategy to make Afrezza a successful alternative to injecting.
Spiro here, just talking to himself out loud and hoping that he is somewhat correct?
|
|
|
|
Post by slugworth008 on Jul 15, 2016 9:32:50 GMT -5
Spiro believes that in order for MNKD's share price to make significant advancement, barring some unexpected positive development not related to Afrezza, it will be necessary for MNKD to meet certain Afrezza sales levels. After studying Sanofi's early launch numbers, Spiro has decided that he would like to see some progress in sales by week 12 of MNKD's launch. At week 12, SNY only had 210 NRX and 257 TRx. It appears that Sanofi was only achieving about a 20% refill rate. Spiro's definition of progress is focused not only only on NRx numbers but mostly on the need to reach 50- 75% or higher refill rates. Spiro believes that Afrezza's new packaging will be likely the key to MNKD reaching and easily beating Sanofi's refill rates. Spiro is very confident that Mike and Matt have the pieces in place and the proper strategy to make Afrezza a successful alternative to injecting. Spiro here, just talking to himself out loud and hoping that he is somewhat correct? Sluggo agrees with Spiro's 3rd person post. And Sluggo has talked to himself many times since investing in MNKD. |
|
|
|
Post by sweedee79 on Jul 15, 2016 9:58:13 GMT -5
lol Spiro... luv your posts.. !!!!!! The old packaging that SNY put out made no sense to me at all... it was hard to prescribe, took a lot of time for docs to sit and figure how many of their combo packs would equal what the patient needed.. and every patient needed something different.. I can see why docs didn't want to deal with all of the BS .. I'm not sure what the new packaging is, but it has to be more convenient than what we had before and will definitely help matters.. I too am confident in Mike and Matt.. I think the keys are education, making things more concise and convenient, and price reduction and of course label changes.. Seems they are attacking things on all fronts... so while our backs are up against a wall we have hope for our amazing product and company. |
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Jul 15, 2016 10:40:31 GMT -5
new prescriptions reached their highs 421 October of last year. Presently the number is 84 to 90 ish. progress would be to take out those highs and keep them. total prescriptions 627 the same week. the high. this week 216. Take out these highs and things have changed.
www.afrezza.com/hcp/afrezza-configurations |
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Jul 15, 2016 10:43:01 GMT -5
Spiro believes that in order for MNKD's share price to make significant advancement, barring some unexpected positive development not related to Afrezza, it will be necessary for MNKD to meet certain Afrezza sales levels. After studying Sanofi's early launch numbers, Spiro has decided that he would like to see some progress in sales by week 12 of MNKD's launch. At week 12, SNY only had 210 NRX and 257 TRx. It appears that Sanofi was only achieving about a 20% refill rate. Spiro's definition of progress is focused not only only on NRx numbers but mostly on the need to reach 50- 75% or higher refill rates. Spiro believes that Afrezza's new packaging will be likely the key to MNKD reaching and easily beating Sanofi's refill rates. Spiro is very confident that Mike and Matt have the pieces in place and the proper strategy to make Afrezza a successful alternative to injecting. Spiro here, just talking to himself out loud and hoping that he is somewhat correct? I think at 12 weeks the numbers need to be a lot higher than that. We are not starting from zero like Sanofi as there are doctors out there who were prescribing but backed off when the future became unclear and they should be relatively easy to recapture. In addition the refill rate is at a level comparable to the 22 week mark so I see that as the base line. If in 12 weeks we only where Sanofi was at week 12 then we are really in trouble. Given the starting point I would want to see sales around the Sanofi 22 week mark and even then we would be standing still. |
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Jul 15, 2016 11:06:21 GMT -5
Choosing the combination looks a bit of a nightmare. The problem I see is that if all you get is three boxes a quarter there are no spares for corrections or follow up doses so you need 4 boxes to last you three months. It makes no difference to me because I pay a flat $125 a quarter but I will have to fight the insurer (I had that problem with pens). Alternately I could use pens from my insulin stash for one month out of the three until I had built up a surplus of the 4u cartridges. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2016 11:12:17 GMT -5
Spiro believes that in order for MNKD's share price to make significant advancement, barring some unexpected positive development not related to Afrezza, it will be necessary for MNKD to meet certain Afrezza sales levels. After studying Sanofi's early launch numbers, Spiro has decided that he would like to see some progress in sales by week 12 of MNKD's launch. At week 12, SNY only had 210 NRX and 257 TRx. It appears that Sanofi was only achieving about a 20% refill rate. Spiro's definition of progress is focused not only only on NRx numbers but mostly on the need to reach 50- 75% or higher refill rates. Spiro believes that Afrezza's new packaging will be likely the key to MNKD reaching and easily beating Sanofi's refill rates. Spiro is very confident that Mike and Matt have the pieces in place and the proper strategy to make Afrezza a successful alternative to injecting. Spiro here, just talking to himself out loud and hoping that he is somewhat correct? I think at 12 weeks the numbers need to be a lot higher than that. We are not starting from zero like Sanofi as there are doctors out there who were prescribing but backed off when the future became unclear and they should be relatively easy to recapture. In addition the refill rate is at a level comparable to the 22 week mark so I see that as the base line. If in 12 weeks we only where Sanofi was at week 12 then we are really in trouble. Given the starting point I would want to see sales around the Sanofi 22 week mark and even then we would be standing still. Agreed 100%. IMO those numbers would indicate to me they are failing. The strategy out the gate should be to target the fall out patients from the past 12 months. Whether the fall out is from not dosing properly or a Dr is under the impression the drug is no longer being continued. Those would be the easiest people to get back on Afrezza. |
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Jul 15, 2016 11:14:07 GMT -5
Choosing the combination looks a bit of a nightmare. The problem I see is that if all you get is three boxes a quarter there are no spares for corrections or follow up doses so you need 4 boxes to last you three months. It makes no difference to me because I pay a flat $125 a quarter but I will have to fight the insurer (I had that problem with pens). Alternately I could use pens from my insulin stash for one month out of the three until I had built up a surplus of the 4u cartridges. agreed, I see that as well. I would need a snack pack. one additional 4 u per day for a snack. Big bowl of popcorn, or an ice cream cone or both. or perhaps that would be dinner. 15 additional 4u cartridges in a 30 day package cover it you think aged and all?
(on the far side, packages have the additional snack cartridges?) afrezza, starts fast, leaves fast, the only insulin that allows for the phase one insulin response as well as the phase two insulin response that fast acting subq insulin analogs allow. with afrezza, you get all the phases of insulin response.
|
|
|
|
Post by kball on Jul 15, 2016 11:17:07 GMT -5
Not necessarily.
I think a really big roadblock could still be drs. concerned this 2.0 might not outlast the cash of a small unproven company and be hesitant to prescribe again until picture is a little less muddied.
Unfortunately.
But while its a pessimistic view it does seem also on the realistic side given the way we know things work
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2016 11:27:39 GMT -5
Choosing the combination looks a bit of a nightmare. The problem I see is that if all you get is three boxes a quarter there are no spares for corrections or follow up doses so you need 4 boxes to last you three months. It makes no difference to me because I pay a flat $125 a quarter but I will have to fight the insurer (I had that problem with pens). Alternately I could use pens from my insulin stash for one month out of the three until I had built up a surplus of the 4u cartridges. as per the call this week, new configurations coming in q4. 1. 180 count - 60 of each 4,8,12 2. 180 count - 90 each of 4,8 ( july also known as titration pack ) 3. 90 count of 8 4. 90 count of 12 already existing 5. 90 count of 4 and i guess previous combinations will be phased out in 2017 and the only combination packs are 180's |
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Jul 15, 2016 11:35:04 GMT -5
Not necessarily. I think a really big roadblock could still be drs. concerned this 2.0 might not outlast the cash of a small unproven company and be hesitant to prescribe again until picture is a little less muddied. Unfortunately. But while its a pessimistic view it does seem also on the realistic side given the way know things work I am right there with you. Technosphere insulin is soooo darn good at what it does, controlling post eating glucose. These physicians could help. we had better help our selves somehow.
The technosphere platform is made for vaccines. And cannabis, if cannabadiol can stop seizures. and it is dosed with technosphere? There is plenty of cash looking for a home. everyone wants to make money. Hard to believe the price per share.
MNKD needs revenue. MNKD management hasn't told us yet the final sanofi agreements.
|
|
|
|
Post by spiro on Jul 15, 2016 11:52:48 GMT -5
Spiro's focus is mostly on refills and retention of adapters. If Sanofi had retained 75% of tit's users, they would still be selling the drug now. The only way Afrezza doesn't work great in most people is improper dosage. The new packaging should keep the costs down for the user and provide the ability to increase dosage with larger meals. Clearly Spiro hopes that NRx will be higher than 212. Spiro wants the TRX to be over 500, which would indicate retention of users. Sanofi only had a TRx of 257 which indicated a poor refill rate. If by week 12, the NRx were 1000 and the TRx were 1100, that would be very troubling for Spiro.
Spiro here, it's all about refills and satisfied new users.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2016 12:04:28 GMT -5
Spiro's focus is mostly on refills and retention of adapters. If Sanofi had retained 75% of tit's users, they would still be selling the drug now. The only way Afrezza doesn't work great in most people is improper dosage. The new packaging should keep the costs down for the user and provide the ability to increase dosage with larger meals. Clearly Spiro hopes that NRx will be higher than 212. Spiro wants the TRX to be over 500, which would indicate retention of users. Sanofi only had a TRx of 257 which indicated a poor refill rate. If by week 12, the NRx were 1000 and the TRx were 1100, that would be very troubling for Spiro. Spiro here, it's all about refills and satisfied new users. TRX wouldnt hit till October due to the 180 cartridge titration pack |
|
|
|
Post by avichen on Jul 15, 2016 12:24:48 GMT -5
I deeply disappointed. I read from somewhere in Twitter that the patient unable to get supply. the Rx continue to drop. And all those blames back to Sanofi. It's their final chance! No more blame game, no more excuse. They have their own sales team and 100% focus. Their sales went out a week earlier before the launch, yet no increment on Rx. It seems like the company is not running efficiently. Sad. My Rx-target, should be about 150 nRx by this week, and keep on increasing in exponential way in following week... but it doesn't met my requirement.
|
|
|
|
Post by liane on Jul 15, 2016 12:30:06 GMT -5
My we're impatient! Don't forget it was a holiday week. People are taking vacation for the entire week, not just the long weekend.
|
|
