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Post by figglebird on Jul 29, 2016 9:28:49 GMT -5
Allow me to again clarify the viability of a TV commercial - cost aside(25m) est guess from having been a part of this process on a current drug commercial you are watching daily(non diabetic drug).
Running any print or media commercial REQUIRES FDA approval of the actual content/spot. Print adheres the most formulaic guidelines. When it comes to TV commercials this process can and does take 6 months - in my expierence, there were at least three candidate commercials that were shot because of the need for FDA approval(micro mirror of drug approval) and the cost is somewhere id guess between 5-12x the cost of producing a typical commercial(mcDonalds United Airlines etc) from my expierence.
Many continue to believe the option of simply producing, clearing and airing a commercial is one that is achievable - it is not in the cards anytime soon.
It has NEVER been a considerable option from pov nor impacted my thesis which remains in tact.
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Post by kball on Jul 29, 2016 9:55:57 GMT -5
New scripts went up by 16 this week from the previous week. At this rate it's looking pretty grim. It was always going to be slow on the uptick for new scripts. Samples come first. Encouraged by the 26% increase on refills.
Sales reps are perhaps picking the low hanging fruit of those who have dropped out during the 2016 transition. Especially with the new titration NDC.
Two weeks doesnt make a trend in any event. I'm not discouraged.
Me either. Beaten, yes. Not discouraged |
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Post by kball on Jul 29, 2016 10:01:08 GMT -5
Looking grim? Oh, please. Anything but. The rate of increase over the last two weeks is about 16% each week. That means scripts double every 5 weeks. Run that out for a few quarters and see where they are.I have no illusions that the trend will continue, but if it does, and it's a big if, Afrezza will be a blockbuster in no time. Grim? Bah! Way too early for that. Thank you for doing the work. Presently 115 scripts at 16% a week would double in 5 weeks, 330 scripts. week of sept 7. 330 weekly scripts is about $250,000 in sales? mnkd.proboards.com/attachment/download/1812
MNKD balance sheet showing revenue and revenue growth would be nice to see.
230 peppy |
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Post by peppy on Jul 29, 2016 10:06:59 GMT -5
Allow me to again clarify the viability of a TV commercial - cost aside(25m) est guess from having been a part of this process on a current drug commercial you are watching daily(non diabetic drug). Running any print or media commercial REQUIRES FDA approval of the actual content/spot. Print adheres the most formulaic guidelines. When it comes to TV commercials this process can and does take 6 months - in my expierence, there were at least three candidate commercials that were shot because of the need for FDA approval(micro mirror of drug approval) and the cost is somewhere id guess between 5-12x the cost of producing a typical commercial(mcDonalds United Airlines etc) from my expierence. Many continue to believe the option of simply producing, clearing and airing a commercial is one that is achievable - it is not in the cards anytime soon. It has NEVER been a considerable option from pov nor impacted my thesis which remains in tact. Have sam and eric, eating at a picnic, taking afrezza, while the FDA required script is running, then show them laughing and frolicking throwing a fresbie? Ask your doctor if afrezza fast acting insulin is for you.
screencast.com/t/tb72AUHjv9
screencast.com/t/cuGlcvzlPl
<-- the melania trump version of diabetes commercials.
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Post by rravis1914 on Jul 29, 2016 10:29:37 GMT -5
Has anybody heard of a price adjustment yet?
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Post by peppy on Jul 29, 2016 10:50:32 GMT -5
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Post by brotherm1 on Jul 29, 2016 10:51:49 GMT -5
The time is the 21 minute mark. Wow - at the recent Cantor Fitzgerald conference - Mike did in fact say "...If we look at where we are now...we should have enough money to get us through Q1 2017....we've been burning about 10M per month..." I'm surprised this was not discussed before. I would think his comment about having enough money to get through Q1 2017 would have had a very positive impact on the share price, or at a minimum would have at least sparked some talk. This is excellent news to me. Perhaps though when he said we should have enough money to get through Q1 2017 he was taking a possible loan from the MNKD loan facility into consideration? Also, he was talking very fast during his speach at this conference, I hope he did mean what he said. |
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Post by petech on Jul 29, 2016 10:57:10 GMT -5
The time is the 21 minute mark. Wow - at the recent Cantor Fitzgerald conference - Mike did in fact say "...If we look at where we are now...we should have enough money to get us through Q1 2017....we've been burning about 10M per month..." I'm surprised this was not discussed before. I would think his comment about having enough money to get through Q1 2017 would have had a very positive impact on the share price, or at a minimum would have at least sparked some talk. This is excellent news to me. Perhaps though when he said we should have enough money to get through Q1 2017 he was taking a possible loan from the MNKD loan facility into consideration? Also, he was talking very fast during his speach at this conference, I hope he did mean what he said. about the 21 minute mark: "....and we think when you look at the financial process where the company is today, we should have enough money to get through Q1 of 2017, uh sometime in that time period" So, I don't think he's saying 100% we make it through Q1 2017 with current/anticipated cash...but it's much better than the Q4 2016 cash expiration guidance we previously had. He then goes on to say that he's looking at Ex-US deals, but not before the prescription trend is favorable. |
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Post by oldfishtowner on Jul 29, 2016 11:06:46 GMT -5
New scripts went up by 16 this week from the previous week. At this rate it's looking pretty grim. It was always going to be slow on the uptick for new scripts. Samples come first. Encouraged by the 26% increase on refills.
Sales reps are perhaps picking the low hanging fruit of those who have dropped out during the 2016 transition. Especially with the new titration NDC.
Two weeks doesnt make a trend in any event. I'm not discouraged.
I am encouraged by the refills as well. But do not be discouraged when they taper off. The titration pack will delay refills for new patients, so it may be 5 or 6 months before new patients start refills rather than the typical 3. This also means that since new patients require a new prescription after the initial titration pack, NRx will jump in October or November when the first patients on titration packs start their regular prescriptions. Maybe optics of this will help the stock. |
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Post by seanismorris on Jul 29, 2016 11:33:52 GMT -5
The numbers of scripts does mean much now, but the reversal of the downward trend is nice,
Basically we're starting over, until the sample packs are released and we see people renew from that we don't have a good idea of how the product is received.
The problem is we need at least another year from there, but if we have cash through Q1 that's not good enough.
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Post by findingomega on Jul 29, 2016 11:45:04 GMT -5
I don't think that is why the shorts behaved and still behave the way they do over there. Shorts are a diferent breed playing a very dangerous game and many (Soros and others) will resort to any tactic that is to their benefit.
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Post by rockstarrick on Jul 29, 2016 12:36:01 GMT -5
New scripts went up by 16 this week from the previous week. At this rate it's looking pretty grim. Down 16 would be grim, we are off and running in the right direction. great job Mike and team !! |
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Post by figglebird on Jul 29, 2016 13:13:36 GMT -5
No, that's the point - they are correcting errors... one of the reasons retention is not peak yet is 30 day supply... he is masking cost reduction to true supply... or truer supply - bc the fda was so innaccurate this concept is in play and will determine once settled... good business - accomplishment.
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Post by slugworth008 on Jul 29, 2016 13:39:33 GMT -5
New scripts went up by 16 this week from the previous week. At this rate it's looking pretty grim. It was always going to be slow on the uptick for new scripts. Samples come first. Encouraged by the 26% increase on refills.
Sales reps are perhaps picking the low hanging fruit of those who have dropped out during the 2016 transition. Especially with the new titration NDC.
Two weeks doesnt make a trend in any event. I'm not discouraged.
Exactly - Let's see where we are at the end of August before using words like "pretty grim". |
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Post by slugworth008 on Jul 29, 2016 13:43:02 GMT -5
The numbers of scripts does mean much now, but the reversal of the downward trend is nice, Basically we're starting over, until the sample packs are released and we see people renew from that we don't have a good idea of how the product is received. The problem is we need at least another year from there, but if we have cash through Q1 that's not good enough. I know this is beating a dead horse...but I STILL want blood and cash from SNY. |
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