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Post by charlespk on Aug 8, 2016 15:49:05 GMT -5
From Results : The net loss for the second quarter of 2016 was $30.0 million , So is it safe to assume our cash burn rate is 30 million per quarter , At 10 million / per month we have 6 months of cash , although it might be higher given reps ( higher labor costs) . I suspect cash burn rate will be more like 15 - to 20 million/per month At the same time , will have revenue coming to Mannkind 100 % as opposed to the split ( when partnering with Sanofi) . We do still have the ATM and the Al Mann group , so can we say we have 6 months , before having to dilute . If sales pick /up , we could get a runway extension . Comments ? Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/5936/conference-call#ixzz4Gm7YbtTc |
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Post by therealisaching on Aug 8, 2016 15:54:43 GMT -5
Burn rate was 7.1/month. Of course this is going to change with the sales staff.
Cash 3/31 27.7 offering 47.4 insulin put 9.2 tax credit .7
Total 85.0
less cash at 6/30 63.7
cash spent 2q 21.3
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Post by compound26 on Aug 8, 2016 15:57:18 GMT -5
From Results : The net loss for the second quarter of 2016 was $30.0 million , So is it safe to assume our cash burn rate is 30 million per quarter , At 10 million / per month we have 6 months of cash , although it might be higher given reps ( higher labor costs) . I suspect cash burn rate will be more like 15 - to 20 million/per month At the same time , will have revenue coming to Mannkind 100 % as opposed to the split ( when partnering with Sanofi) . We do still have the ATM and the Al Mann group , so can we say we have 6 months , before having to dilute . If sales pick /up , we could get a runway extension . Comments ? Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/5936/conference-call#ixzz4Gm7YbtTcMatt and Mike have reiterated several times that the cash burn will be around $10 million a month and the total commercialization cost will be around $20 million for the year of 2016. To the extent there is increase in commercialization, they will try their best to reduce the other costs to balance it out. |
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Post by charlespk on Aug 8, 2016 16:18:50 GMT -5
Was i that far off? Did Matt say we had enough cash till 2016 ?
or did he say we had enough money for 2017 , he was going to fast ,
Will someone clarify ?
Thanks
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Post by jay1ajay1a on Aug 8, 2016 16:22:56 GMT -5
2017
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Post by compound26 on Aug 8, 2016 16:22:57 GMT -5
Was i that far off? Did Matt say we had enough cash till 2016 ? or did he say we had enough money for 2017 , he was going to fast , Will someone clarify ? Thanks As far into 2017 as possible. |
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Post by tayl5 on Aug 8, 2016 16:56:35 GMT -5
Based on the numbers disclosed today, we're on track for either a surprise in Q4,16 or a financing event in Q1,17. Surprises would include much higher than expected sales, a large milestone payment from RLS, a cash settlement from Sanofi, or an overseas distribution deal. In Q1,17, the ATM could be exercised, ideally at a higher stock price, a strategic partner could make an equity investment, or we could just sell more stock like last time. Either way, the script count will dictate whether we're feeling good or not come 2017. I'm cautiously optimistic after the call today. Nothing particularly new, but no bad news, either. Just need to run the program and see what happens.
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Post by charlespk on Aug 8, 2016 16:56:38 GMT -5
i like that  . |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2016 17:01:38 GMT -5
Based on the numbers disclosed today, we're on track for either a surprise in Q4,16 or a financing event in Q1,17. Surprises would include much higher than expected sales, a large milestone payment from RLS, a cash settlement from Sanofi, or an overseas distribution deal. In Q1,17, the ATM could be exercised, ideally at a higher stock price, a strategic partner could make an equity investment, or we could just sell more stock like last time. Either way, the script count will dictate whether we're feeling good or not come 2017. I'm cautiously optimistic after the call today. Nothing particularly new, but no bad news, either. Just need to run the program and see what happens. Great summary. Thx |
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 8, 2016 17:07:27 GMT -5
I would be shocked if we didn't have more dilution next year. And, that's even if things are going really well.
At this point, I'd be happy seeing any path to profitability within the next 2 years.
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Post by anderson on Aug 8, 2016 18:49:03 GMT -5
Based on the numbers disclosed today, we're on track for either a surprise in Q4,16 or a financing event in Q1,17. Surprises would include much higher than expected sales, a large milestone payment from RLS, a cash settlement from Sanofi, or an overseas distribution deal. In Q1,17, the ATM could be exercised, ideally at a higher stock price, a strategic partner could make an equity investment, or we could just sell more stock like last time. Either way, the script count will dictate whether we're feeling good or not come 2017. I'm cautiously optimistic after the call today. Nothing particularly new, but no bad news, either. Just need to run the program and see what happens. The only thing you forgot was if the stock price gets above $1.50 we will hopefully see some warrants redeemed. Though the Series A will still have a little over a year left at the end of Q1 2017, Series B will not be redeemable at that time. But if we have made enough headway (increase in share price) hopefully they will be redeemed soon rather than later. Note there are 36million Series A so that is a potential $54 million for MNKD. |
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Post by peppy on Aug 8, 2016 18:58:18 GMT -5
Based on the numbers disclosed today, we're on track for either a surprise in Q4,16 or a financing event in Q1,17. Surprises would include much higher than expected sales, a large milestone payment from RLS, a cash settlement from Sanofi, or an overseas distribution deal. In Q1,17, the ATM could be exercised, ideally at a higher stock price, a strategic partner could make an equity investment, or we could just sell more stock like last time. Either way, the script count will dictate whether we're feeling good or not come 2017. I'm cautiously optimistic after the call today. Nothing particularly new, but no bad news, either. Just need to run the program and see what happens. The only thing you forgot was if the stock price gets above $1.50 we will hopefully see some warrants redeemed. Though the Series A will still have a little over a year left at the end of Q1 2017, Series B will not be redeemable at that time. But if we have made enough headway (increase in share price) hopefully they will be redeemed soon rather than later. Note there are 36million Series A so that is a potential $54 million for MNKD. so that is the plan. we have enough cash until the end of the year. raise scripts, price per share goes up, and warrants redeemed for more cash and Mannkind will have revenue besides. Our cup will be full with revenue if Afrezza gets scripts. Our cost basis for afrezza to sale price after expenses is good, Mike knows this.
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Post by tayl5 on Aug 8, 2016 19:16:52 GMT -5
Based on the numbers disclosed today, we're on track for either a surprise in Q4,16 or a financing event in Q1,17. Surprises would include much higher than expected sales, a large milestone payment from RLS, a cash settlement from Sanofi, or an overseas distribution deal. In Q1,17, the ATM could be exercised, ideally at a higher stock price, a strategic partner could make an equity investment, or we could just sell more stock like last time. Either way, the script count will dictate whether we're feeling good or not come 2017. I'm cautiously optimistic after the call today. Nothing particularly new, but no bad news, either. Just need to run the program and see what happens. The only thing you forgot was if the stock price gets above $1.50 we will hopefully see some warrants redeemed. Though the Series A will still have a little over a year left at the end of Q1 2017, Series B will not be redeemable at that time. But if we have made enough headway (increase in share price) hopefully they will be redeemed soon rather than later. Note there are 36million Series A so that is a potential $54 million for MNKD. Thanks for the reminder about the warrants, Anderson. I would file warrant exercises under "selling more stock". As mentioned on the call today, there is a liability on the balance sheet associated with the warrants, but the stock doesn't actually leave the company until the warrants are exercised. It would be great if the warrants are exercised to the extent that we don't need another pop-up financing, but unless I'm missing something the net effect of the ATM, warrants and an otherwise unscheduled dilutive stock sale is qualitatively the same. |
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Post by dcassidy1618a on Aug 8, 2016 21:32:25 GMT -5
From Results : The net loss for the second quarter of 2016 was $30.0 million , So is it safe to assume our cash burn rate is 30 million per quarter , At 10 million / per month we have 6 months of cash , although it might be higher given reps ( higher labor costs) . I suspect cash burn rate will be more like 15 - to 20 million/per month At the same time , will have revenue coming to Mannkind 100 % as opposed to the split ( when partnering with Sanofi) . We do still have the ATM and the Al Mann group , so can we say we have 6 months , before having to dilute . If sales pick /up , we could get a runway extension . Comments ? There's a "gap" in the calculations that confuses things: "Manufacturing of commercial product resumed in the second quarter of 2016, in preparation for the relaunch of Afrezza in the third quarter of 2016, resulting in the recognition of product manufacturing costs of $3.7 million for the three months ended June 30, 2016." The previous 10-Q said they had $7,532,000 in manufacturing costs. So how long did they stop manufacturing? How much was manufactured that cost 7.5 mil? If manufacturing had been going as usual, how much would they have spent? If you figure demand for product was very low during the first quarter and they still spent 7.5 million, what will it turn into as demand increases? |
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Post by matt on Aug 9, 2016 7:54:52 GMT -5
If you figure demand for product was very low during the first quarter and they still spent 7.5 million, what will it turn into as demand increases? Just an educated guess, but a lot of manufacturing cost at low volume is absorption of fixed cost. There are variable costs, like materials and labor, and there are fixed costs like depreciation. In a pharma plant there are calibrations and quality procedures that have to be done on a cycle that varies with the calendar rather than the volume produced. If your three month inspection is due then it has to be done whether you make 1 unit or 1 million units. Then there are other "semi-variable" costs that move in a step function where you have to add resources in chunks. For example, if you need one supervisor to oversee production of 1 million units, and two supervisors to oversee 2 million units, then you also need two supervisors to oversee 1.1 million units. Overall, it is very hard to determine what the manufacturing cost ledger relationships look like from just the quarterly financials. On the cash side, I think management is putting a bit of spin on that that may be misleading some shareholders. Yes, Sanofi had the insulin put for $9 million but I believe the partnership agreement allows them to offset that against anything owed on the credit line so it is not a source of cash but a reduction in debt. Similarly, the tax credit may be more like a prepaid expense that is only useful if the company owes taxes; there are very few tax credits anywhere in the world that are refundable for a taxpayer that does not pay any tax. As such, neither item helps the cash challenge. I think the date for raising funds is still November (or earlier). The burn continues at a good clip and the marketing expenses won't fully hit until Q3 so you really can't go by Q2 numbers. The company is also putting some spin on the reasons for a decline in R&D spending, but either the company is dedicated to developing new products on the Technosphere platform or they aren't. If you want to fantasize about TS development and what that will bring in the future then fine, but the company can't get there by ratcheting back R&D spending. Either the R&D number needs to go up, or contributions from TS will not be happening. Which leaves the need to raise cash well before cash runs out early in 2017. When companies play chicken with the financial markets on fund raising, the markets react by very punitive pricing because they know the company is desperate, so the raise has to be done before full year 2016 numbers are available in March, and it is very hard to raise money after Thanksgiving. That leaves the two weeks after the 10Q for third quarter is published but before Thanksgiving and absent a spectacular Q3, raising money in Sept/Oct is not out of the question. |
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