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Post by dcassidy1618a on Aug 9, 2016 9:23:25 GMT -5
The CC and PR didn't help me ascertain what I'm looking for. Ultimately, all I care about are three things:
1) How much it costs to make.
2) How much it costs to market and distribute.
3) How much they're going to sell it for.
Nothing from the CC and PR addressed those issues. A no doubt inadequate attempt at guesstimating on my part is to start with the the first quarter 10-Q and symphony data provided here and try to assemble my own estimates:
1) product manufacturing cost = 7,532,000
2) zero since they hadn't started marketing or distributing during the first quarter
3) per symphony, first quarter "cumulative sales" estimate = 2,864,000
Now symphony lists the "weekly avg cost/script" as $500. However, it's generally agreed that most places seem to charge around $300 per script, so I suppose symphony's sales estimate is high and should be closer to 1.8 million.
Right off, there's an apparent loss of 5-6 million dollars. That's a large gap even without marketing and distribution costs are added. How do they intend to reach a point where there is a profit on each sale and when do they anticipate reaching it?
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2016 9:35:30 GMT -5
The CC and PR didn't help me ascertain what I'm looking for. Ultimately, all I care about are three things: 1) How much it costs to make. 2) How much it costs to market and distribute. 3) How much they're going to sell it for. Nothing from the CC and PR addressed those issues. A no doubt inadequate attempt at guesstimating on my part is to start with the the first quarter 10-Q and symphony data provided here and try to assemble my own estimates: 1) product manufacturing cost = 7,532,000 2) zero since they hadn't started marketing or distributing during the first quarter 3) per symphony, first quarter "cumulative sales" estimate = 2,864,000 Now symphony lists the "weekly avg cost/script" as $500. However, it's generally agreed that most places seem to charge around $300 per script, so I suppose symphony's sales estimate is high and should be closer to 1.8 million. Right off, there's an apparent loss of 5-6 million dollars. That's a large gap even without marketing and distribution costs are added. How do they intend to reach a point where there is a profit on each sale and when do they anticipate reaching it? dcassidy, can you run these numbers? 20 us dollars cost to make 90 4unit cartridge box of afrezza. sold for 300 dollars. unknown marketing and distribution costs.
www.afrezza.com/AfrezzaConfigurationChart.pdf
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Post by dcassidy1618a on Aug 9, 2016 9:59:31 GMT -5
The CC and PR didn't help me ascertain what I'm looking for. Ultimately, all I care about are three things: 1) How much it costs to make. 2) How much it costs to market and distribute. 3) How much they're going to sell it for. Nothing from the CC and PR addressed those issues. A no doubt inadequate attempt at guesstimating on my part is to start with the the first quarter 10-Q and symphony data provided here and try to assemble my own estimates: 1) product manufacturing cost = 7,532,000 2) zero since they hadn't started marketing or distributing during the first quarter 3) per symphony, first quarter "cumulative sales" estimate = 2,864,000 Now symphony lists the "weekly avg cost/script" as $500. However, it's generally agreed that most places seem to charge around $300 per script, so I suppose symphony's sales estimate is high and should be closer to 1.8 million. Right off, there's an apparent loss of 5-6 million dollars. That's a large gap even without marketing and distribution costs are added. How do they intend to reach a point where there is a profit on each sale and when do they anticipate reaching it? dcassidy, can you run these numbers? 20 us dollars cost to make 90 4unit cartridge box of afrezza. sold for 300 dollars. unknown marketing and distribution costs.
No disrespect intended, but so you say. Moreover, I think the published numbers contradict that. If what you say is correct, then MNKD should be making a profit already -- shouldn't they? |
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2016 10:03:06 GMT -5
I did not state you needed to believe the numbers.
I have 2400 posts I have read a few in the year.
Just wondering what happens when those numbers are run.
I do have sources on them, you do not need to believe them.
What happens when those numbers are used in the calculation?
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Post by dcassidy1618a on Aug 9, 2016 10:08:11 GMT -5
I did not state you needed to believe the numbers. I have 2400 posts I have read a few in the year. Just wondering what happens when those numbers are run. I do have sources on them, you do not need to believe them. What happens when those numbers are used in the calculation? I'm afraid I don't understand your request. I'm trying to understand the numbers that are currently available from MNKD and symphony in order to get a sense of when there would be a "breakeven" point. If your sources are correct, then shouldn't the results show up in already published data? |
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2016 10:10:42 GMT -5
dcassidy, can you run these numbers? 20 us dollars cost to make 90 4unit cartridge box of afrezza. sold for 300 dollars. unknown marketing and distribution costs.
No disrespect intended, but so you say. Moreover, I think the published numbers contradict that. If what you say is correct, then MNKD should be making a profit already -- shouldn't they? dcassidy, mnkd was making really good money when sanofi ordered the samples. MNKD 35% Sanofi 65% and no revenue has hit the books. MNKD branded just started to sell, last week.
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2016 10:15:21 GMT -5
I did not state you needed to believe the numbers. I have 2400 posts I have read a few in the year. Just wondering what happens when those numbers are run. I do have sources on them, you do not need to believe them. What happens when those numbers are used in the calculation? I'm afraid I don't understand your request. I'm trying to understand the numbers that are currently available from MNKD and symphony in order to get a sense of when there would be a "breakeven" point. If your sources are correct, then shouldn't the results show up in already published data? here was the request. The CC and PR didn't help me ascertain what I'm looking for. Ultimately, all I care about are three things:
1) How much it costs to make. $20 us dollars 90 4 unit cartridges. when the line is running
Un
2) How much it costs to market and distribute. Unknown
3) How much they're going to sell it for. Used to be thought sanofi sold this for $300 us dollars
Nothing from the CC and PR addressed those issues. A no doubt inadequate attempt at guesstimating on my part is to start with the the first quarter 10-Q and symphony data provided here and try to assemble my own estimates
If that helps, that is what I have
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Post by dcassidy1618a on Aug 9, 2016 10:29:28 GMT -5
I'm trying to work with data that is publicly available. Has Mannkind ever said that the product costs $20 a box to manufacture?
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 9, 2016 10:37:09 GMT -5
They will never disclose publicly what their cost to manufacture is; it also will vary based on fixed costs and volume produced. The best you can hope for is a reasonable long run estimate for analysis purposes.
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Post by BlueCat on Aug 9, 2016 10:46:13 GMT -5
Depends too on whether you are looking at COGS to determine per unit margin, or a more general estimate of costs to company to achieve 'breakeven'.
Based on Peppy's estimated numbers (or whatever 'public' data you can find you trust), you could guesstimate COGS (per unit) - and try to extrapolate/guesstimate based on SNY's number the margin through distribution.
But this will not remotely give you breakeven. Even if you had #2 in that list above, there are still other expenses and overhead costs to factor in.
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2016 10:55:53 GMT -5
I'm trying to work with data that is publicly available. Has Mannkind ever said that the product costs $20 a box to manufacture? that's 360 units total in that box. I was listening to a particular person real hard when I saw it. 20 dollars a 90 cartridge, 4 unit per cartridge, box when the line is running.....
At the time, the deal was 35% MNKD, 65% Sanofi and sanofi had ordered the samples. and MNKD's cup was running over.
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Post by dcassidy1618a on Aug 9, 2016 10:59:59 GMT -5
Depends too on whether you are looking at COGS to determine per unit margin, or a more general estimate of costs to company to achieve 'breakeven'. Based on Peppy's estimated numbers (or whatever 'public' data you can find you trust), you could guesstimate COGS (per unit) - and try to extrapolate/guesstimate based on SNY's number the margin through distribution. But this will not remotely give you breakeven. Even if you had #2 in that list above, there are still other expenses and overhead costs to factor in. I think I'm getting a headache. Most companies I usually look at provide some sort of guidance as to future losses/profits, revenues, expenses, etc. I take it that isn't a standard operating procedure with MNKD? |
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Post by BlueCat on Aug 9, 2016 11:04:16 GMT -5
Depends too on whether you are looking at COGS to determine per unit margin, or a more general estimate of costs to company to achieve 'breakeven'. Based on Peppy's estimated numbers (or whatever 'public' data you can find you trust), you could guesstimate COGS (per unit) - and try to extrapolate/guesstimate based on SNY's number the margin through distribution. But this will not remotely give you breakeven. Even if you had #2 in that list above, there are still other expenses and overhead costs to factor in. I think I'm getting a headache. Most companies I usually look at provide some sort of guidance as to future losses/profits, revenues, expenses, etc. I take it that isn't a standard operating procedure with MNKD? I'm sure it is internally. But with the history around MNKD, cc's and current status - probably right call to not share those types of projections with the public when they likely have a low confidence factor on ANY projection being accurate at this stage. What they likely have more firmly are goals - some bottom line, and several levels of stretch. And I'll bet they have lots of trend lines they are playing with and testing in the process. Tylenol helps. |
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Post by peppy on Aug 9, 2016 11:07:45 GMT -5
Depends too on whether you are looking at COGS to determine per unit margin, or a more general estimate of costs to company to achieve 'breakeven'. Based on Peppy's estimated numbers (or whatever 'public' data you can find you trust), you could guesstimate COGS (per unit) - and try to extrapolate/guesstimate based on SNY's number the margin through distribution. But this will not remotely give you breakeven. Even if you had #2 in that list above, there are still other expenses and overhead costs to factor in. . I take it that isn't a standard operating procedure with MNKD? Sanofi non disclosure has been involved since FDA approval. |
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 9, 2016 11:15:24 GMT -5
Depends too on whether you are looking at COGS to determine per unit margin, or a more general estimate of costs to company to achieve 'breakeven'. Based on Peppy's estimated numbers (or whatever 'public' data you can find you trust), you could guesstimate COGS (per unit) - and try to extrapolate/guesstimate based on SNY's number the margin through distribution. But this will not remotely give you breakeven. Even if you had #2 in that list above, there are still other expenses and overhead costs to factor in. I think I'm getting a headache. Most companies I usually look at provide some sort of guidance as to future losses/profits, revenues, expenses, etc. I take it that isn't a standard operating procedure with MNKD? It was clear from what Mike said that it is much too early to provide guidance on sales / revenues. This is a product launch, new team, new methodology, new targets, new marketing. We are in the 1st week to first month for the moving parts. No credible person would hazard a guess, and that is all it would be. |
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