Post by babaoriley on Mar 31, 2014 13:06:34 GMT -5
My hat is off to the shorts. As much as I've been saying here over the months that shorts are far shrewder than longs, and that we needn't ever worry about shorts getting trapped, their management of this stock has exceeding even my (yes, me, the prince of pessimism) expectations. For example, not in my dreams did I think we'd be below $5 going into AdCom, but sure looking that way now.
Last August, when we were rolling into the results, we were stopped cold by AF and others who questioned the company's reporting of those results. Great time to short there.
Then, in January was it, or December, whenever it was, when the AdCom was announced - oh my, did the shorts take advantage of that. Remember, we had some momentum, gotten about $7, then the AdCom announcement, I did not appreciate just how huge an opportunity that was for shorts. I did realize it game them another avenue of attack, but, again, they were far better and more effective in their attack than I had imagined. Fellow longs, the shorts "knew" at that point the havoc that they could wreak on release of the BD - whether they had a hand in any of the reviewers' pockets, that's obviously pure speculation on my part, but who knows. And to all of you who have parsed through the BD, and now concluded that although there were some tough spots, there were also good spots, well, guess what, for the most part, the bad spots made the blogs on Friday and over the weekend. In general, bad news makes the headlines, right.
And for you wonderful guys that do all the due diligence on the science, I'm forever indebted for your dedication and hard work and your willingness to share. But, as I've said in the past, the problem with exhaustive DD, is the feeling that comes to some of certainty, when there really isn't any as to the science, not before an approval, anyway. To me, a developmental biotech is a gamble, and I've known that, and I failed to recognize the extent of the advantage that the shorts had on this one. As a gamble, one should play it as such, rather than as an investment. At the point of approval, it converts into mainly an investment, which can then be treated as such. That's when talk can really focus on the revenue generating potential of the product; before that, a little of that is okay, but the main thrust has to be "how do I play this thing, knowing that wild swings will occur and that shorts are way better at the gambling part, then the investment part?"
Do you think the vast majority of the short interest know 1/10 of what most of you guys know about this company, Afrezza and Technoshpere? And commensurately, they have spent not even 1/10 of their time on that, if that much. What they spend their time on is figuring how they are going to make money off of emotional longs - it's an industry and a science in itself, I tell you! Thus, they have outflanked and outfoxed us completely here.
And you know lots and lots of shorts have and will be covering today, they do not want to go in fully exposed tomorrow, cuz anything could happen. No easy money to be made there, but up until then, apparently, the pickens were anything but slim for them. I'm thinking we should rally some off the lows (we already have a bit), based on shorts continuing to slowly cover. Look, those guys know just as much about how to make money in these situations, as many of you know about Afrezza and its properties and the trials. That's one awesome opponent.
The odds on success tomorrow are as they have been since August, except for whatever adjustment you would make for the comments in the BD. For some, that adjustment is slight, for others, substantial. All I can say is the events of the past three days have shook some rock solid longs to the core. Great job by the shorts? Objective response to reading the BD? All of a sudden not feeling like management came as clean as they should have?
Done for now, good luck everyone.
Last August, when we were rolling into the results, we were stopped cold by AF and others who questioned the company's reporting of those results. Great time to short there.
Then, in January was it, or December, whenever it was, when the AdCom was announced - oh my, did the shorts take advantage of that. Remember, we had some momentum, gotten about $7, then the AdCom announcement, I did not appreciate just how huge an opportunity that was for shorts. I did realize it game them another avenue of attack, but, again, they were far better and more effective in their attack than I had imagined. Fellow longs, the shorts "knew" at that point the havoc that they could wreak on release of the BD - whether they had a hand in any of the reviewers' pockets, that's obviously pure speculation on my part, but who knows. And to all of you who have parsed through the BD, and now concluded that although there were some tough spots, there were also good spots, well, guess what, for the most part, the bad spots made the blogs on Friday and over the weekend. In general, bad news makes the headlines, right.
And for you wonderful guys that do all the due diligence on the science, I'm forever indebted for your dedication and hard work and your willingness to share. But, as I've said in the past, the problem with exhaustive DD, is the feeling that comes to some of certainty, when there really isn't any as to the science, not before an approval, anyway. To me, a developmental biotech is a gamble, and I've known that, and I failed to recognize the extent of the advantage that the shorts had on this one. As a gamble, one should play it as such, rather than as an investment. At the point of approval, it converts into mainly an investment, which can then be treated as such. That's when talk can really focus on the revenue generating potential of the product; before that, a little of that is okay, but the main thrust has to be "how do I play this thing, knowing that wild swings will occur and that shorts are way better at the gambling part, then the investment part?"
Do you think the vast majority of the short interest know 1/10 of what most of you guys know about this company, Afrezza and Technoshpere? And commensurately, they have spent not even 1/10 of their time on that, if that much. What they spend their time on is figuring how they are going to make money off of emotional longs - it's an industry and a science in itself, I tell you! Thus, they have outflanked and outfoxed us completely here.
And you know lots and lots of shorts have and will be covering today, they do not want to go in fully exposed tomorrow, cuz anything could happen. No easy money to be made there, but up until then, apparently, the pickens were anything but slim for them. I'm thinking we should rally some off the lows (we already have a bit), based on shorts continuing to slowly cover. Look, those guys know just as much about how to make money in these situations, as many of you know about Afrezza and its properties and the trials. That's one awesome opponent.
The odds on success tomorrow are as they have been since August, except for whatever adjustment you would make for the comments in the BD. For some, that adjustment is slight, for others, substantial. All I can say is the events of the past three days have shook some rock solid longs to the core. Great job by the shorts? Objective response to reading the BD? All of a sudden not feeling like management came as clean as they should have?
Done for now, good luck everyone.