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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 1, 2016 16:32:54 GMT -5
At the time of the adcom and subsequent approval, I thought those here and on some other boards were mostly interested in their investments as investments, not personal wars over things that just don't matter when it comes to investment decisions. And, I believe many were mostly interested in their investment. As time has passed, the reality of mnkd's situation is clear yet many are unwilling or unable to adjust to the new information, they simply want what they want. Meanwhile, many of those interested in mnkd as an investment have moved on. Those interested in afrezza as a treatment are hopeful for all the reasons we've been reading for years now by many posters here and in other forums. Those that focus on the treatment side rather than the investment side - of course they want you banned, you're not supporting the treatment at all cost. When I was posting more regularly, I was accused of all of it and more and yet I never once shorted mnkd. As if looking at the full picture somehow relegates me and others to the ignorant basher with a personal agenda side of the world. But I will say the moderators on this board have been mostly fair and patient with leaving both sides of the coin up for all to read. Those that want it banned are missing the opportunity to expand their minds and think of and challenge their investment decisions in other ways beyond what management wants investors to hear. Then again, there's always a percentage of people who will ignore reality regardless of how obvious and clear it is - they simply don't care about any other outcome. And that's not investing. That's a gambler who hasn't yet left the casino. My initial buy was at 7.28 pre-adcom. I rue the day I didn't sell at 10.38 for a nice 30K profit - A painfully expensive lesson. Your comments are accurate IMO, however I continue to hold because I am A) Way underwater and B) Still believe that Afrezza will succeed and C) The minute I sell for a huge loss the long awaited material event will occur. Slug.. remember when we were at 6 and GS said sell, 3 pps target. And everyone said no way! If GS says sell it's a buy. I admit I fell for that one:-(. Now... if they ever say buy, 3 dollar target. I am backing up the truck!! |
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Post by buyitonsale on Dec 1, 2016 16:33:05 GMT -5
This low volume SP downward manipulation / accumulation is not going to last forever, especially given the dynamics of what next year will bring. In the spring the situation has been much more tense and SP was over $2. Matt said the SP will improve and I believe it will also. Then the financing options are going to be revealed. In the meantime, follow your investable thesis and plenty of due diligence to go with it  |
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 1, 2016 18:00:54 GMT -5
My initial buy was at 7.28 pre-adcom. I rue the day I didn't sell at 10.38 for a nice 30K profit - A painfully expensive lesson. Your comments are accurate IMO, however I continue to hold because I am A) Way underwater and B) Still believe that Afrezza will succeed and C) The minute I sell for a huge loss the long awaited material event will occur. Slug.. remember when we were at 6 and GS said sell, 3 pps target. And everyone said no way! If GS says sell it's a buy. I admit I fell for that one:-(. Now... if they ever say buy, 3 dollar target. I am backing up the truck!! I remember it well Sports. My truck has backed up several times over the past three years. LOL We hit 10 again and I'll be lighting a fine cuban cigar with a gold plated lighter. |
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Post by falconquest on Dec 1, 2016 20:50:51 GMT -5
You are like a broken record. Perhaps we listened to different conference calls, the one I listened to was extremely positive. Afrezza's superiority IS the reason big pharma has unleashed the Wall Street dogs to attack MannKind. If MannKind can survive this onslaught, it will change the entire pharmaceutical industry. The call was positive, but it certainly didn't answer many of the questions that have existed around sales, so you and Dict are both right. One also has to admit that the re-launch has been unsuccessful thus far. We are almost six months in and can't break 300 scripts. Cleaned up balance sheet is good, while the revelations that sales force is less than previously thought and requires an overhaul, and news that efficacy/titration problems still exist are most definitely not. And I'm sorry, but I don't buy into the idea that the only thing keeping Afrezza down anymore is a grand Wall Street conspiracy. Perhaps, just perhaps, people overestimated the demand for the drug and vastly underestimated and under prepared for the difficulties in getting insurance coverage, doctor education and adoption, and patient availability. Many of those issues are getting better but MNKD and their mistakes, paired with a terrible label, have done a pretty good job of making things difficult for Afrezza on their own, no help from Wall Street required. Yes naked shorting has occurred and lots of MNKD articles with a negative slant have come out, but those are symptoms of a bigger problem; poor sales and bad previous management. And in all fairness, Dicta's posts are just as relevant, if not more so, than yours or many others on this board. After all, your pie in the sky posts claimed that Sanofi would never in a million years dump MNKD and that the relationship was strong. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and everyone is entitled to be wrong, as many on this board have been. My investment is 90% underwater. I was certainly wrong about all of this too. As we sink lower every day, unless you're short, EVERYONE has been wrong. I would like to express my support for the comments by silentknight. He very eloquently expressed how I am feeling as well. I would like to call on the administrators to disregard those who ask for some posters to be banned simply because they don't express irrational exuberance for Mannkind. While we can all agree we have the best insulin product ever developed, Mannkind as an investment has been a pure disaster. No one can deny that.....no one! And just because unfavorable facts are posted it doesn't mean anyone is short or is here to bash etc. I still believe in the company, the product, and I am on the fence about our management team. I think that Matt is a great guy and very committed but when it comes to business the proof is in results. We need to achieve results and do it soon or this company is in serious trouble. You can argue this point all you want but it will be a tough row to hoe. I have said it many times, only sales will help this company. I value all opinions but calling for posters to be banned for posting real world facts is just wrong. I came here from the Yahoo board for..............well obvious reasons but primarily for the respectful manner in which the board is conducted. I hope and trust we will continue in that environment. |
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Post by letitride on Dec 1, 2016 21:00:58 GMT -5
I deny it.! Quote: No one can deny that.....no one!
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Post by falconquest on Dec 1, 2016 21:38:34 GMT -5
.....there's always one. ;-) I sincerely hope you have made money letitride.
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Post by letitride on Dec 1, 2016 21:43:35 GMT -5
.....there's always one. ;-) I sincerely hope you have made money letitride. I sincerely hope so to time will tell! |
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Post by mango on Dec 2, 2016 0:03:23 GMT -5
The calmness before the storm. Do you feel it?
No insider buying. No insider selling.
A little something here. a little something there, popping up everywhere.
The best CC we have had this year shedded light on several positive developments to look forward to in 2017.
A few forgotten potential catalysts could also happen any day.
I love being delusional, thank you all.
Exciting times.
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 2, 2016 0:09:41 GMT -5
The calmness before the storm. Do you feel it? No insider buying. No insider selling. A little something here. a little something there, popping up everywhere. The best CC we have had this year shedded light on several positive developments to look forward to in 2017. A few forgotten potential catalysts could also happen any day. I love being delusional, thank you all. Exciting times. Mango - this post just made my delusional night! |
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Post by kball on Dec 2, 2016 5:01:15 GMT -5
.....there's always one. ;-) I sincerely hope you have made money letitride.Time seems to be the enemy of mannkind |
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Post by peppy on Dec 6, 2016 11:24:32 GMT -5
I'll take a stab at it. MNKD is alive and executing their strategy (regardless of opinions of said strategy)...and it will continue into Q3 of 2017. They will need cash. Is there another rabbit in the hat?  Beats me - That is a pretty accurate summation. The market it betting no more rabbits, but the market is sometimes wrong. Root for the bunnies. Matt, How will the unwind work if MNKD succeeds? Just asking.
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 6, 2016 11:47:44 GMT -5
IMO 1/4 of this board will disappear:-))
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Post by promann on Dec 7, 2016 6:26:35 GMT -5
IMO 1/4 of this board will disappear:-)) Amen to that.. Adios |
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Post by formermnkdemployee on Dec 7, 2016 6:59:33 GMT -5
7/8ths are already gone.
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Post by matt on Dec 7, 2016 7:29:06 GMT -5
That is a pretty accurate summation. The market it betting no more rabbits, but the market is sometimes wrong. Root for the bunnies. Matt, How will the unwind work if MNKD succeeds? Just asking.
It depends exactly what you mean buy succeed. If MNKD manages to get enough scripts to stay in business but there is still no widespread adoption, then the company will become a zombie of sorts. If the drug ever does get reimbursement and can prove superior results, then the insulin product may get acquired by Novo or Lilly. Everyone loves to talk about China and India, but from what I can see the manufacturing cost numbers are not there for a big move into such price sensitive markets. Which leaves licensing of TS. That is a tough way to make money because some other company control your fate based on sales of their drug. The only company that ever made a nice profit promoting drug delivery solutions was Alza who had a huge library of ways to get drugs into various parts of the body; they were really innovative. If you take a long-acting pill of any type, you can thank Alza. The only way to monetize TS in a significant way is to put novel drugs into the delivery system, but that means MNKD must become a full scale drug developer and must find novel drugs that are best delivered via inhalation. For that they need much more capital and a very different management team because in any license deal 95% of the profits go to the company that developed the drug and 5% to the provider of the delivery system. Simply repackaging existing drugs (insulin, EPI, etc.) is not going to be that profitable because TS is not the only inhalation delivery system around, it is one of many, and there is no proprietary interest in existing drugs that are or will soon be off-patent. Ultimately, when a drug business matures the PPS aligns with industry averages which tend to fall into a 6-8X earnings multiple. Pull out your calculator and figure out how much profit you think MNKD can produce on a sustainable basis and then do the math on total company value and what that translates into per share. |
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Beats me - 