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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Oct 22, 2016 11:01:20 GMT -5
I'm probably going to be accused of taking too much hopeium for writing about this topic. As I've mentioned in other posts, I am a glass half full kinda of person. Which is why having folks that disagree with me is a good thing. I'm sure I'll get at least one person to disagree with this post.  To begin with, what do we know. My attempt at stark reality. 1. MannKind is burning about $10 million a month on operations 2. The current cash position only shows enough runway until approximately mid 1st quarter 2017. 3. Script numbers are staying flat when everyone (except shorts) was hoping for a solid upward trajectory. 4. Time appears to be running out. 5. Getting Endo support has been tough. 5. Price per share  , nothing more needs to be said The interesting thing here is that MannKind management knows all of the above all too well. To me, the biggest and most significant issues facing the success of MannKind is the lack of time and trajectory of the script count. If news comes out that changes either of those concerns, I believe the stock price could explode. Yeah, yeah, we've been hearing that line for years. I am sure the main focus of Matt since hiring Mike C. has been to find more money. I do not know what mechanism Matt will find for further financing, but he knows that is what is necessary to keep the company going and to keep Al's dream alive. Mike C. has done a great job of building Afrezza awareness on a shoestring budget. But even on a low budget, MannKind sales staff are showing up at most major Diabetes events around the country. So, I don't believe it will take much good news on either front to quickly turn share price around. As I have followed social media, awareness of Afrezza is growing. But it takes time for that awareness to grow enough to affect script count. There's that time issue again. I can't predict when traction will take hold on script count but I believe it will. So what we need is additional financing. Where is it going to come from? I'm not sure. I still believe there will be a settlement with Sanofi through the mandatory arbitration process. But like all of you, I just don't know where the financing will come from. My point is, it will not take much solid good news to cause a significant share price turn. With 2017 coming fast, news is likely to come sooner than later. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Oct 22, 2016 11:33:26 GMT -5
Yup
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Post by sportsrancho on Oct 22, 2016 12:11:21 GMT -5
I think the money will come about the same time scripts take off:-))).
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Post by nadathing on Oct 22, 2016 12:29:59 GMT -5
I suspect that Afrezza will be a niche drug, as one analyst predicted, for many years. The real target market for Afrezza is with juvenile diabetes patients. I believe that had we had pediatric approval we would be the blockbuster most of had thought this would be. Unfortunately, we know very little about when/if pediatric approval will occur. We can't even find a partner for the epi application.
I've always been a glass half full guy, but it's a bleak situation. I hate to whine, but I am depressed, disappointed and frustrated.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 22, 2016 12:47:01 GMT -5
I categorically dispute your assertion that someone will disagree with you  On your comment about social media, what exactly do you mean by awareness is growing? Periodically I check twitter for posts by the company, by Mike and with #afrezza. In general posts may get mid double digits for likes or retweets. Mike does have 1400 followers, but I suspect a lot of those are investors. For all the talk of social media, I kinda discount it as something that will play much of a role in awareness. With the exception of a very few strong supporters of Afrezza, most people don't focus there social media activities on their ailments and treatments. I would be interested if there is some indicator of growing interest in social media... something that could be monitored for progress. It does appear that the past few days google searches for Afrezza have been on an uptick, likely from the Fox coverage, but still quite low levels compared to searches for Lantus or Novolog. |
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Post by burki on Oct 22, 2016 12:53:36 GMT -5
Just a thought-, could it be possible that script numbers are "fixed" with the adjustment to coincide with news from the CC or other noteworthy changes? At the moment it may be in the interest of MNKD-/BOD to keep the $P at these sub-levels. At the moment it`s like sitting in a dark room with your imagination running wild.
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Post by cjm18 on Oct 22, 2016 13:04:29 GMT -5
Just a thought-, could it be possible that script numbers are "fixed" with the adjustment to coincide with news from the CC or other noteworthy changes? At the moment it may be in the interest of MNKD-/BOD to keep the $P at these sub-levels. At the moment it`s like sitting in a dark room with your imagination running wild. Sarcasm? Why aren't endos writing Afrezza?  ? I have heard several reasons. Label doesn't say afrezza is better than other insulins. Worries about lung function. Endos are conservative. wait and see mode because of huge paradigm shift. Endos heard it was being discontinued. Endos think it's expensive and/or not covered by insurance. |
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Post by burki on Oct 22, 2016 13:10:29 GMT -5
Why sarcasm? A mere thought and speculation like so many postings on MNKD  |
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Post by sportsrancho on Oct 22, 2016 13:12:37 GMT -5
I categorically dispute your assertion that someone will disagree with you On your comment about social media, what exactly do you mean by awareness is growing? Periodically I check twitter for posts by the company, by Mike and with #afrezza. In general posts may get mid double digits for likes or retweets. Mike does have 1400 followers, but I suspect a lot of those are investors. For all the talk of social media, I kinda discount it as something that will play much of a role in awareness. With the exception of a very few strong supporters of Afrezza, most people don't focus there social media activities on their ailments and treatments. I would be interested if there is some indicator of growing interest in social media... something that could be monitored for progress. It does appear that the past few days google searches for Afrezza have been on an uptick, likely from the Fox coverage, but still quite low levels compared to searches for Lantus or Novolog. How many people are you following? New people won't # Afrezza? You have to go inside a conversation to see the new people asking question of the Afrezza users:-) But for sure Twitter isn't the best way. We need like Laura says, no one knows about Afrezza!! To get this out to the masses. |
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Post by peppy on Oct 22, 2016 13:29:40 GMT -5
Just a thought-, could it be possible that script numbers are "fixed" with the adjustment to coincide with news from the CC or other noteworthy changes? At the moment it may be in the interest of MNKD-/BOD to keep the $P at these sub-levels. At the moment it`s like sitting in a dark room with your imagination running wild. Sarcasm? Why aren't endos writing Afrezza? ? I have heard several reasons. Label doesn't say afrezza is better than other insulins. Worries about lung function. Endos are conservative. wait and see mode because of huge paradigm shift. Endos heard it was being discontinued. Endos think it's expensive and/or not covered by insurance. Endos are not listening. They do not seem to be looking at evidence of CGM, improved a1c and/or patient feelings of well being. They seem to be sticking to the script. screencast.com/t/nOwBa4aaA The physicians are not thinking afrezza through. screencast.com/t/qHsWcjqc screencast.com/t/ZytPXkO7 afrezzadownunder.com/
Instead, Afrezza is being dismissed as exubera 2. Sweedee and I decided it was more work for the physicians office if the physician writes for afrezza.
what we have going, the potential label change, the potential juvenile study. 
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Post by nylefty on Oct 22, 2016 14:08:16 GMT -5
Why sarcasm? A mere thought and speculation like so many postings on MNKD The trouble is that your speculation, if it wasn't meant as sarcasm or satire, comes across as a wacky conspiracy theory since it would mean that both Symphony and IMS would have agreed to "fix" their script numbers at the bidding of a struggling little biotech company. As a newbie you may have wrongly assumed that the script numbers we see each week come directly from MannKind. |
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Post by letitride on Oct 22, 2016 14:22:47 GMT -5
I was talking to a friend over 60 that's type 2 the other day and he was telling me his doctor says anything under 170 is fine for his age, he is averaging around 140 most days. He is on metamophine and was told by his doctor the use of meal time insulin would only further reduce the the production of insulin by his own pancreas. Does this sound like the norm to those in the know here.
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Post by matt on Oct 22, 2016 14:57:42 GMT -5
To me, the biggest and most significant issues facing the success of MannKind is the lack of time and trajectory of the script count. Time is the problem. If there was enough runway then script trajectory could take a bit longer and, while people would no doubt bitch, it would be less of an issue. Money is the real issue and you cannot expect that scripts will suddenly take off like a rocket ship for a drug that has been on the market now for more than twenty months. If there was that much pent up demand for an inhaled product then Sanofi would have done better with it. Insulin is not an unmet clinical need, perhaps it is one that could be better met, but that is a different dynamic that rarely leads to exponential market growth.
Which leaves the financing quandary. Financing needs to happen before the cash balance runs too low (and by cash I include the $7 million or whatever is left of the ATM and the $30 million from the Mann Group), because once the balance runs too low a failed financing becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The time to pump up the cash is upon us now and it really can't wait longer. If Mannkind reaches Thanksgiving week without a deal, then I think it is game over.
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Post by sophie on Oct 22, 2016 15:20:15 GMT -5
I was talking to a friend over 60 that's type 2 the other day and he was telling me his doctor says anything under 170 is fine for his age, he is averaging around 140 most days. He is on metamophine and was told by his doctor the use of meal time insulin would only further reduce the the production of insulin by his own pancreas. Does this sound like the norm to those in the know here. It's hard for me to say for sure that the doctor is wrong since I'm not a doctor, but from my understanding of the matter, decreasing the pancreas' workload for a type 2 will allow the beta cells of the pancreas to relax, which would eventually end up increasing their function (lookup pancreas beta exhaustion for reference). I know this to be the case for the majority of people, but there may be some reason for this person that it might not be true. I just don't know of any reasons why it wouldn't be true for him. I would have your friend see a different physician... not only to get a second opinion, but if the doctor is wrong about his understanding of diabetes, what else is he/she ignorant of? I do think this is a relatively new concept since the earliest studies I could find is in the past 6 years or so, but if the doc isn't staying current with new information, might want to find one who is. |
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Oct 22, 2016 15:26:38 GMT -5
I recall that nurses in a hospital said: Everything under 200 is okay for an elderly lady. See how undermanaged this is.
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, nothing more needs to be said
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