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Post by nimrod71 on Oct 26, 2016 6:57:51 GMT -5
How long does the delisting process take? August 16th was the last time it closed over a dollar.
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Post by derek2 on Oct 26, 2016 7:29:41 GMT -5
How long does the delisting process take? August 16th was the last time it closed over a dollar. 180 days from receipt of the notice of deficiency (which was in Sept.) There's a possibility of a 180 day extension, but MNKD might not qualify for that because of a positive equity requirement. 180 days until delisting vs 60 - 90 days of cash left. So, if you think about it, far more likely than delisting is the possibility of a reverse split followed by dilutive financing. As long as the financing brings in a year's worth of operating funds, the share price should be supported at around whatever discount to market is given for the financing (discount, warrants, etc.) As long as that keeps the SP aove $1.00 for 10 days running, the clock will be reset and MNKD will be in compliance.
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Post by nimrod71 on Oct 26, 2016 7:31:48 GMT -5
How long does the delisting process take? August 16th was the last time it closed over a dollar. 180 days from receipt of the notice of deficiency (which was in Sept.) There's a possibility of a 180 day extension, but MNKD might not qualify for that because of a positive equity requirement. 180 days until delisting vs 60 - 90 days of cash left. So, if you think about it, far more likely than delisting is the possibility of a reverse split followed by dilutive financing. As long as the financing brings in a year's worth of operating funds, the share price should be supported at around whatever discount to market is given for the financing (discount, warrants, etc.) As long as that keeps the SP aove $1.00 for 10 days running, the clock will be reset and MNKD will be in compliance. Tx Derek.
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 26, 2016 8:12:12 GMT -5
How long does the delisting process take? August 16th was the last time it closed over a dollar. It's irrelevant. This will all be over one way or the other long before we reach the delisting deadline. On my list of things to worry about delisting doesn't even make the cut.
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Post by matt on Oct 26, 2016 8:33:20 GMT -5
It's irrelevant. This will all be over one way or the other long before we reach the delisting deadline. On my list of things to worry about delisting doesn't even make the cut. I agree that they are more pressing matters, but without a guarantee of continued listing obtaining financing on favorable terms will be much more difficult. Investors look at price vs potential for appreciation, but they also at liquidity and NASDAQ provides much more liquidity than the OTC. Since the minimum time to execute a reverse split is 21 days, and most companies take longer, if MNKD is going to reverse split they should get on with it. A reverse split will hurt the share price and will not cure the root problems facing the company, but compliance with listing standards potentially allows for a financing to extend the runway. No easy choices here.
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Post by kbrion77 on Oct 26, 2016 8:41:54 GMT -5
It's irrelevant. This will all be over one way or the other long before we reach the delisting deadline. On my list of things to worry about delisting doesn't even make the cut. I agree that they are more pressing matters, but without a guarantee of continued listing obtaining financing on favorable terms will be much more difficult. Investors look at price vs potential for appreciation, but they also at liquidity and NASDAQ provides much more liquidity than the OTC. Since the minimum time to execute a reverse split is 21 days, and most companies take longer, if MNKD is going to reverse split they should get on with it. A reverse split will hurt the share price and will not cure the root problems facing the company, but compliance with listing standards potentially allows for a financing to extend the runway. No easy choices here. Matt in your opinion could MNKD strike a deal with a company like PDL BioPharma for royalty based financing or would PDL not even consider that with the shape MNKD is in currently? pdl.com/financing-innovations/
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 26, 2016 8:56:38 GMT -5
I agree that they are more pressing matters, but without a guarantee of continued listing obtaining financing on favorable terms will be much more difficult. Investors look at price vs potential for appreciation, but they also at liquidity and NASDAQ provides much more liquidity than the OTC. Since the minimum time to execute a reverse split is 21 days, and most companies take longer, if MNKD is going to reverse split they should get on with it. A reverse split will hurt the share price and will not cure the root problems facing the company, but compliance with listing standards potentially allows for a financing to extend the runway. No easy choices here. Matt in your opinion could MNKD strike a deal with a company like PDL BioPharma for royalty based financing or would PDL not even consider that with the shape MNKD is in currently? pdl.com/financing-innovations/It's collateralizing (is that even a word?) a revenue stream. Right now the revenue stream is so weak you would not get much. The market loves potential and hates news so Mannkind has a problem because it's revenue and sales figures are out there so the value is known. If you are a new company then they will value against potential. Plus there is the whole security for loan problem. I thought one of the Deerfield loans was sort of made on this basis - we pay milestones when certain sales targets are hit.
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Oct 26, 2016 16:33:53 GMT -5
How long does the delisting process take? August 16th was the last time it closed over a dollar. 180 days from receipt of the notice of deficiency (which was in Sept.) There's a possibility of a 180 day extension, but MNKD might not qualify for that because of a positive equity requirement. 180 days until delisting vs 60 - 90 days of cash left. So, if you think about it, far more likely than delisting is the possibility of a reverse split followed by dilutive financing. As long as the financing brings in a year's worth of operating funds, the share price should be supported at around whatever discount to market is given for the financing (discount, warrants, etc.) As long as that keeps the SP aove $1.00 for 10 days running, the clock will be reset and MNKD will be in compliance. Right. By the time the 180 days are up, MNKD will either be broke, bought, or gone by some method of disposal ... OR ... they will be $2, $3, or more per share and pointed at the sky. My point is that delisting is nothing to worry about.
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Post by matt on Oct 27, 2016 8:45:45 GMT -5
It's collateralizing (is that even a word?) a revenue stream. Right now the revenue stream is so weak you would not get much. The market loves potential and hates news so Mannkind has a problem because it's revenue and sales figures are out there so the value is known. If you are a new company then they will value against potential. Plus there is the whole security for loan problem. I thought one of the Deerfield loans was sort of made on this basis - we pay milestones when certain sales targets are hit. ^^^ What he said. There are lots of investment vehicles out there which are essentially royalty trusts, investing money for a cut of the sales. When the sales are highly speculative or non-existent, the expectation of those investors is that the royalties will not be interesting either so they will decline to invest.
Before I was a general management guy, I did complex corporate tax/legal planning, and then I was a merger/acquisitions/divestiture guy so I have seen and participated in a lot of different transaction structures; the best transaction planners are higher creative individuals because they have to be. I can think of only a few ways to profitably salvage the assets owned by MNKD, but all but one of those would wipe out the current shareholders.
When Sanofi hit the dump button on Afrezza, the strategy was pretty much locked in stone; MNKD had to find a way to market Afrezza on their own until it can get enough traction to partner again or be acquired. It has always been a race against time given the limited capital resources on the balance sheet and management does not have the luxury of trying something different at this point. Matt & Mike took on the challenge and have been doing the best they can, but unless they can secure more financing VERY soon this will end badly, but honestly their list of viable financing options is shortens by the day. There are ways to pull a lot of value out of MNKD, but none that can help the retail longs unless one of you has a friend with the money to organize the legal machinations (find a friend with $10-15 million in liquid cash).
Most disturbing is the Matt is presenting at investment conferences organized by the likes of Rodman & Renshaw. Rodman is a known bottom feeder and when R&R comes knocking then you have fallen off the radar of any decent investment bank and your company can no longer do attractive deals at market rates. The last best hope is a strategic partner, one that is not obvious, will see MNKD as a worthwhile addition to their portfolio and cut a sweet deal, but such deals are a lot harder to find than they were 15-20 years ago.
I for one cannot fault Matt or Mike; they are playing the hand they were dealt.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2016 9:13:50 GMT -5
It's collateralizing (is that even a word?) a revenue stream. Right now the revenue stream is so weak you would not get much. The market loves potential and hates news so Mannkind has a problem because it's revenue and sales figures are out there so the value is known. If you are a new company then they will value against potential. Plus there is the whole security for loan problem. I thought one of the Deerfield loans was sort of made on this basis - we pay milestones when certain sales targets are hit. ^^^ What he said. There are lots of investment vehicles out there which are essentially royalty trusts, investing money for a cut of the sales. When the sales are highly speculative or non-existent, the expectation of those investors is that the royalties will not be interesting either so they will decline to invest.
Before I was a general management guy, I did complex corporate tax/legal planning, and then I was a merger/acquisitions/divestiture guy so I have seen and participated in a lot of different transaction structures; the best transaction planners are higher creative individuals because they have to be. I can think of only a few ways to profitably salvage the assets owned by MNKD, but all but one of those would wipe out the current shareholders.
When Sanofi hit the dump button on Afrezza, the strategy was pretty much locked in stone; MNKD had to find a way to market Afrezza on their own until it can get enough traction to partner again or be acquired. It has always been a race against time given the limited capital resources on the balance sheet and management does not have the luxury of trying something different at this point. Matt & Mike took on the challenge and have been doing the best they can, but unless they can secure more financing VERY soon this will end badly, but honestly their list of viable financing options is shortens by the day. There are ways to pull a lot of value out of MNKD, but none that can help the retail longs unless one of you has a friend with the money to organize the legal machinations (find a friend with $10-15 million in liquid cash).
Most disturbing is the Matt is presenting at investment conferences organized by the likes of Rodman & Renshaw. Rodman is a known bottom feeder and when R&R comes knocking then you have fallen off the radar of any decent investment bank and your company can no longer do attractive deals at market rates. The last best hope is a strategic partner, one that is not obvious, will see MNKD as a worthwhile addition to their portfolio and cut a sweet deal, but such deals are a lot harder to find than they were 15-20 years ago.
I for one cannot fault Matt or Mike; they are playing the hand they were dealt. If $10 - $15mm in cash could change things a bit, I would think with all of Al's friends and the fact there there have to be some wealthy individuals with family members afflicted with diabetes who have enough understanding of Afrezza to throw what would be chump change at the company. Perhaps they also understand some of the barriers the company faces. Are Mike C's initiatives a pilot effort to demonstrate on a small scale that commercial success is viable? While Rx growth seems too slow to validate this, maybe there is enough traction and a financially strong suitor would be able to remove sales growth barriers in a more timely fashion to make Afrezza economically viable. Thanksgiving is four weeks from today. I am thankful for my health. I would also be thankful to know what is going to happen to my investment in Mannkind. The waiting is the hardest part.
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Post by silentknight on Oct 27, 2016 9:39:20 GMT -5
Ask yourself this question. "If I had an additional $10-15 million dollars to invest, knowing what I know now, would I invest it into MNKD?" The answer for me would be no, as the perceived headwinds have been demonstrably too difficult to overcome to gain market traction. I'd wager that would also be the response from most investment banks and philanthropists, no matter how good-hearted they may be. People aren't keen on throwing money towards highly speculative plays that have yet to demonstrate a path to profitability and that have yet to allow said investors to see returns on their investment. I think we're past the point where the monetary potential for Afrezza sales can be used as a major selling point for investors. It's hard to make the argument that it will be a blockbuster when a skeptical investor could just point to both SNY and MNKD failing thus far to gather significant script numbers.
Al might have deep-pocketed friends out there, but even their love for Al likely wouldn't be enough to cause them to invest at this point. They would likely make the same mistake that many of us have made, that is investing based on emotion rather than fundamentals. As Matt stated, almost all roads lead to shareholder wipeout or the surrender of company and proft rights to bottom feeding investors. I know some hold out hope for a a cash injection through the Epi product or some other payment but I don't see it happening, at least not to an extent that buys us anything more than 1 or 2 months worth of operating cash. The only viable way forward, at least in my opinion, is the R/S & dilution that will also result in yet another round of shareholder misery, but at least the company stays in business and doesn't surrender itself to outside entities like they did previously with SNY. If that's the case, I wish they'd just get on with it to remove the uncertainty and get to the business of selling their drug.
I'd love for them to prove me wrong and I sincerely hope they do but MNKD is in a tough position with few good options. The company certainly isn't operating like cash is a problem but I'm not sure if that's a sign of confidence or delusion. I'm praying it's the former.
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