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Post by u1682002 on Oct 28, 2016 14:53:28 GMT -5
This subject has be brought up many times before and I just want to get some more thoughts from some of the experts, such as Matt, Mnholdem, Mannmade, at this critical moment. I am thinking the last-minute white knight to save MNKD has to be the one has most to lose should the worse happen. My current understanding is that Al's family and foundation may get nothing if MNKD files BK. Is my understanding correct? WTW prescription # does not matter much right now. New cash is the key.
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Post by matt on Oct 28, 2016 15:42:56 GMT -5
There is a way to save some of the economic value of MNKD with a cleverly structured but complicated transaction. Saving Afrezza at this point may not be feasible due to the low script numbers, regardless of who owns it. Sadly, there are therapies that work and help patients, but which cannot be manufactured and marketed at an economically feasible cost and Afrezza might be one of those.
If the company declares BK with a prepackaged deal, essentially a reorg plan that has been agreed by all the major creditors before they file, then those are fairly easy to get confirmed over the objections of some smaller creditors and all shareholders due to the cram down rules. In such a case the family shares would get whatever regular shareholders get, which might well be zero. If the family wanted to lead a complex transaction that salvaged economic value they could do very well, and what happens to the remaining shareholders depends on how benevolent they feel (the range is from very benevolent all the way to remaining shareholders get nothing at all).
Bankruptcies are the ultimate in game theory. There are numerous ways to play the game, there are multiple parties with different objectives, and a fair amount of pain to go around for all. The game determines who gets how much pain. That is not meant to sound flippant, it is simply the reality of how the process works. There are always some people who get kicked in the shins that don't deserved to be kicked, and others who come out with a decent result, and it usually hinges on having a bit of money in hand when everybody else has run out of cash. Small retail shareholders are generally disorganized, don't understand the process, don't have the money to control the process, and miss the very tight and inflexible bankruptcy court deadlines so they tend to suffer an outsized percentage of the pain.
Once in court there is no more discussion of extending runways, when a motion is made in bankruptcy court there is a period to object (usually two weeks) and that is it. At the end of the notice period the court rules, often in a matter of minutes, and that matter is settled. Unless the judge does something illegal, most rulings cannot be appealed. Shareholders tend to take a wait and see attitude and when the judge rules against them, they try to organize and get the decision overturned. 99.999% of the time that is a waste of time and energy; the ship has already sailed.
The Mann family and foundations can afford to play the game, if they want to, but there is no way of predicting whether they will sit this one out or not. Figure that Deerfield Partners will sell Danbury in an Article 9 sale and file a deficiency claim, and Sanofi will do the same with Valencia and file their deficiency claim. The rest is auctioned off and that is where the family can step in if they are in the mood. They need to spend some money to rescue the value ($10 million for starters), and even if successful there is a long and uncertain process ahead. Personally, I wouldn't bet on the family risking more than they have already.
The same comment goes for pretty much anybody; with new cash of $10 million the case is theirs to control.
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Post by promann on Oct 28, 2016 15:53:12 GMT -5
All I ever see on this Board is talk of Bankruptcy! Are you all holding a short position here because you are really frightening me and other true longs into thinking of selling our position.. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT . I believe Mannkind will survive and BK is IMO not in Matt P or Mike C or any executive's at Mannkinds Plan. I believe they still are moving forward and will live Al's dream. CMon people lets be a little more positive here!! I'm not trying to pump this I'm just Saying this is far from over.. Stay Tuned!!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 15:56:14 GMT -5
If you believe mnkd will survive and thrive then you should hold your investment. Not sure why anyone would take anything read on a forum or almost ANY particular source and use it to make investment decisions. This is conversation, opinions, and occasionally some relevant information/resources. But it should be a very small part of your toolbox for making buy/sell decisions with your money.
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Post by gamblerjag on Oct 28, 2016 15:58:58 GMT -5
Pro... as a long i sure hope you don't listen to any long or short in determining your buy or sell... other than just receiving information. How can you buy or sell on info from someone you never met... GL
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Post by uvula on Oct 28, 2016 16:02:48 GMT -5
. I believe Mannkind will survive and BK is IMO not in Matt P or Mike C or any executive's at Mannkinds Plan. I believe they still are moving forward and will live Al's dream. Do you believe mnkd will survive or do you hope it will survive? I hope but the hope is not based on anything.
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Post by promann on Oct 28, 2016 16:07:58 GMT -5
Thanks I try not to let any ones opinions influence my position but deep down when you read so much negativity on this board one cant help themselfs.. I'm sure some have been influenced into selling and if you dont think thats true your living in a dream world.. Thanks just venting here its been tough for all of us and very frustrating..
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Post by madog365 on Oct 28, 2016 16:22:01 GMT -5
If you say BK three times in the Mirror, Proboards Matt will appear.
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Post by promann on Oct 28, 2016 16:25:44 GMT -5
. I believe Mannkind will survive and BK is IMO not in Matt P or Mike C or any executive's at Mannkinds Plan. I believe they still are moving forward and will live Al's dream. Do you believe mnkd will survive or do you hope it will survive? I hope but the hope is not based on anything. uvula To be honest I'm addicted ! Been long for 3 years I have position's in 3 different accounts 2 of which have remained strong with approx 30,000 shares unchanged and you know the loss of them accounts very very bad. The third account is a personal basically play money account sold all my toys to buy MNKD Boats Snowmobiles Trucks. Because i keep averaging down in that account which I last looked at .79 cents position. I'm at the point of no return here and when ever I sell anything I buy it back the same day because I'm so addicted I cant stand the fact of not being in.. That being said I truely believe in MNKD Ive been to the share holders meetings in Danbury because I live in eastern CT so its about 1.5 hrs for me and I'm impressed. I do Hope but there is a lot of true belief in that they will get this done. Thanks Kenny
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 16:47:36 GMT -5
If you say BK three times in the Mirror, Proboards Matt will appear. Lol
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Post by mnkdfann on Oct 28, 2016 17:18:54 GMT -5
Thanks I try not to let any ones opinions influence my position but deep down when you read so much negativity on this board one cant help themselfs.. I'm sure some have been influenced into selling and if you dont think thats true your living in a dream world.. I'm sure some weaker minded souls were influenced, but anyone who sold before today is probably thankful (at least for right now) that they did. I'm also sure some others would keep buying all the way to (if it happens) bankruptcy, and then brag about how they lost very little per share due to the magic of cost averaging.
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Post by falconquest on Oct 28, 2016 20:50:20 GMT -5
All I ever see on this Board is talk of Bankruptcy! Are you all holding a short position here because you are really frightening me and other true longs into thinking of selling our position.. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT . I believe Mannkind will survive and BK is IMO not in Matt P or Mike C or any executive's at Mannkinds Plan. I believe they still are moving forward and will live Al's dream. CMon people lets be a little more positive here!! I'm not trying to pump this I'm just Saying this is far from over.. Stay Tuned!! promann, You can "believe" all you want. You can be as positive as you want. It doesn't matter, this is business. Either you sell your product or you go bankrupt. And right now it's looking like the latter. I believe in the product, I believe in the legacy of Al Mann but that doesn't mean a darn thing if you don't sell the product.
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Post by nimrod71 on Oct 28, 2016 21:04:53 GMT -5
All I ever see on this Board is talk of Bankruptcy! Are you all holding a short position here because you are really frightening me and other true longs into thinking of selling our position.. IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT . I believe Mannkind will survive and BK is IMO not in Matt P or Mike C or any executive's at Mannkinds Plan. I believe they still are moving forward and will live Al's dream. CMon people lets be a little more positive here!! I'm not trying to pump this I'm just Saying this is far from over.. Stay Tuned!! Are you for real man? Mike and Matt might very be doing there best but at what point do you realize things are nearing an end. Have you seen the script numbers. How does a company survive if they can't sell there only product? The whole company is based on afrezza and they can't figure out how to sell it. Also why is it every time someone says something realistic they are automatically a short. Grow up guy.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 28, 2016 21:52:46 GMT -5
Bankruptcies are the ultimate in game theory. There are numerous ways to play the game, there are multiple parties with different objectives, and a fair amount of pain to go around for all. The game determines who gets how much pain. That is not meant to sound flippant, it is simply the reality of how the process works. There are always some people who get kicked in the shins that don't deserved to be kicked, and others who come out with a decent result, and it usually hinges on having a bit of money in hand when everybody else has run out of cash. Small retail shareholders are generally disorganized, don't understand the process, don't have the money to control the process, and miss the very tight and inflexible bankruptcy court deadlines so they tend to suffer an outsized percentage of the pain. Yeah, I'm beginning to feel like the sacrificial pawn... or perhaps the pinata, if that counts as a game.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 28, 2016 21:59:20 GMT -5
. I believe Mannkind will survive and BK is IMO not in Matt P or Mike C or any executive's at Mannkinds Plan. I believe they still are moving forward and will live Al's dream. Do you believe mnkd will survive or do you hope it will survive? I hope but the hope is not based on anything. He's certain only businesses that put bankruptcy into their plan encounter it. As long as people don't talk about it here and as long as Matt and Mike use mindfulness techniques and avoid thinking about it, it can't happen. BTW... Al's primary dream was getting Afrezza to patients. MNKD could go bankrupt, all of us lose our entire investment and Afrezza could ultimately succeed in the market. It could even be Matt and Mike that see that dream to fruition after a bankruptcy.
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