In starting this discussion, I want to tamp down all the negativity here (Dic, Reverse, and even sometimes Op, and many more … this one is for you
).
I was really hoping to hear what would be the BEST thing you could think of to come out of this CC (or, shortly afterward). Sure, maybe RLS and Sanofi will give us a much-needed short-term cash infusion. But, SNY has pissed on us and RLS is not a good fit for MNKD for a long-term partner. So, what does MNKD REALLY NEED (besides “more sales”): Advertisement money? More salespeople? A partner with deep pockets? A partner established in the diabetes pharma sales market? A partner with deep pockets AND that is established in the diabetes market? If you said “Yes” to that last option, you are correct!
As it has been mentioned, Afrezza would make a very nice complementary diabetes product to the long-term insulin products of some of the very large diabetes companies (Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, etc.). Maybe even Sanofi. Yes, they probably know Afrezza better than all the others, and they may have stopped trying to sell Afrezza to put financial pain on MNKD and squeeze them out so they can buy MNKD for a song and dance. SNY probably didn’t think they were making enough of a percentage-cut of the profits with their MNKD agreement. Who knows their intentions? But, marketing Afrezza along with any of those company’s long-term insulin products would allow them to really penetrate the upcoming generation’s growing diabetes market. Having a complementary combo of insulin products (long-term and short) would be HUGE for them! Doctors would find it easy to prescribe this duo, and the big-pharma company would market them as a matching pair. It would provide them with the best $cha-ching that those behemoths could imagine for the next (very large) diabetes generation(s) to come.
Sure, Afrezza has had a rough time getting its sales kick-started. But, the leaders in those companies know the industry, they have established diabetes pharma sales teams, they know the Afrezza product, they are extremely competitive and they are very smart. Tons of the right experience, tons of brain-power, tons of savvy, and tons of desire. They could easily make Afrezza into the winner that we all know it will be some day. So, reflecting on this incredible demand for Afrezza, how high could the bidding go?
OK, so, here’s my thoughts on what I think would be the BEST outcome for MNKD. To have 2 or 3 (or more) top established diabetes pharma companies feverishly compete in a bidding process for the whole MNKD bundle: Afrezza, TS and all the licensing. Ha! We would all get an instant, huge pay-off for our shares. If you wanted, you could spend half of your proceeds to buy stock of the new company and use the other half to buy yourself a new house.
Take that dooms-and-gloomers.
So, here are your questions:
1. How many
Billions would the bidding get to?
2. How high could you see a Per-Share distribution price get for such a buy-out? (in other words, how much could we get per share)
3. (most importantly) How soon could the transaction happen and we could collect our money? This Thursday?