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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Nov 4, 2016 23:37:47 GMT -5
In starting this discussion, I want to tamp down all the negativity here (Dic, Reverse, and even sometimes Op, and many more … this one is for you ). I was really hoping to hear what would be the BEST thing you could think of to come out of this CC (or, shortly afterward). Sure, maybe RLS and Sanofi will give us a much-needed short-term cash infusion. But, SNY has pissed on us and RLS is not a good fit for MNKD for a long-term partner. So, what does MNKD REALLY NEED (besides “more sales”): Advertisement money? More salespeople? A partner with deep pockets? A partner established in the diabetes pharma sales market? A partner with deep pockets AND that is established in the diabetes market? If you said “Yes” to that last option, you are correct! As it has been mentioned, Afrezza would make a very nice complementary diabetes product to the long-term insulin products of some of the very large diabetes companies (Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, etc.). Maybe even Sanofi. Yes, they probably know Afrezza better than all the others, and they may have stopped trying to sell Afrezza to put financial pain on MNKD and squeeze them out so they can buy MNKD for a song and dance. SNY probably didn’t think they were making enough of a percentage-cut of the profits with their MNKD agreement. Who knows their intentions? But, marketing Afrezza along with any of those company’s long-term insulin products would allow them to really penetrate the upcoming generation’s growing diabetes market. Having a complementary combo of insulin products (long-term and short) would be HUGE for them! Doctors would find it easy to prescribe this duo, and the big-pharma company would market them as a matching pair. It would provide them with the best $cha-ching that those behemoths could imagine for the next (very large) diabetes generation(s) to come. Sure, Afrezza has had a rough time getting its sales kick-started. But, the leaders in those companies know the industry, they have established diabetes pharma sales teams, they know the Afrezza product, they are extremely competitive and they are very smart. Tons of the right experience, tons of brain-power, tons of savvy, and tons of desire. They could easily make Afrezza into the winner that we all know it will be some day. So, reflecting on this incredible demand for Afrezza, how high could the bidding go? OK, so, here’s my thoughts on what I think would be the BEST outcome for MNKD. To have 2 or 3 (or more) top established diabetes pharma companies feverishly compete in a bidding process for the whole MNKD bundle: Afrezza, TS and all the licensing. Ha! We would all get an instant, huge pay-off for our shares. If you wanted, you could spend half of your proceeds to buy stock of the new company and use the other half to buy yourself a new house. Take that dooms-and-gloomers. So, here are your questions: 1. How many Billions would the bidding get to? 2. How high could you see a Per-Share distribution price get for such a buy-out? (in other words, how much could we get per share) 3. (most importantly) How soon could the transaction happen and we could collect our money? This Thursday?
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Post by gamblerjag on Nov 4, 2016 23:54:42 GMT -5
Ok.. I'll bite.. since a few times a year i mention buyout prices albeit I'm not overzealous (I don't think) nor am I pessismist..
1 $ 2 combined - . I say if we got bought out now for everything and after improve label and lower tiers by Insurance Companies (forgetting where the pps is currently) I say we can get. 6-8 billion. or $12-16 pps. We were previously at around 5 billion at SNY partnership announcement. This was before we saw the facts what Afrezza could really do.. , before epi, before RLS ... cannibus etc... That would be kinda epic from this point... but less than I thought we could get 2 years ago after SNY partnership.
3. I'm guessing you collect your money the day the stocks goes up on the news, then you sell.. Usually when a buyout happens the stock goes to that pps and stays within a few cents and trades there before the close of the deal or you hold out hoping someone outbids the acquiring CO. of course if it's an all cash transaction i believe it does you no good to hold on to the close of the sale. If it is stock and cash or stock I think there is a benefit to holding on... but maybe incorrect on that.
GL>
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Post by promann on Nov 5, 2016 6:44:17 GMT -5
I love the topic header:: who wants to read pessimists on your investment on any investment board ? But you know they will be here with there gloom and negativity on this thread.
1. Matt had said not interested in partnering with Afrezza again ( probably what Al wanted and had said) but he did elude that BO is always an option. I too a couple years ago would have expected more and I think a offer was probably made and refused. Wish we new what it was but I would estimate after spending 2 billion and 10 years time that at least a 10 billion offer is in line. Now I am thinking we should take half that and be happy with maybe 10.00 SP 2. No less then 5.00 SP for sure!! 3. Thursday? Wow I'm going shopping now. Don't forget that the SP will probably go higher then the BO price due to shorts covering 100 million shares and then it will probably dive after that to level off . So that being the case I will probably sell in increments as it goes up and as it comes down because the high and low is going to be really tough to predict. On top of that I think there is big money just waiting for any positive news with Mnkd just waiting to pounce which will drive this beyond value Good luck. Now to go shopping 😏 🤑🤑
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Post by steve on Nov 5, 2016 9:09:09 GMT -5
Added more two weeks ago and a friend bought 4000 more this week. I am wanting to add further.. I am optimistic about the afrezza miracle. As Dr. Kowaski mentioned and so many others.
This is under attack like AC electricity was attacked by JP Morgan and Edison. Edison busied himself electrocuting animals to cover the inferiority of his product, DC electric, which JP had invested in, to make it appear his product was better. Once JP got his talons into the new business, it was off to the races.
I see the same smear campaign here buy tools like motly tool, a terrible, terrible stock prognosticator as well as others.
With this big money hiding in the back ground shorting at ridiculous interest rates to explain a lot of the depressed share price.
Eventually this to will be big. All over the planet. Just like AC electricity is today. jmho
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Post by falconquest on Nov 5, 2016 9:43:52 GMT -5
Optimism or pessimism makes no difference to the success of Mannkind. They are both a state of mind. Success in a company is driven by demand just as the share price is. You can be as optimistic as you want, it has no affect. Mannkind needs to sell product. That will take care of share price as well as the cash issue. Even if they announce a funding strategy on Wednesday that will not solve the cash issue long term. They have to move product!
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 5, 2016 9:47:06 GMT -5
Optimism or pessimism makes no difference to the success of Mannkind. They are both a state of mind. Success in a company is driven by demand just as the share price is. You can be as optimistic as you want, it has no affect. Mannkind needs to sell product. That will take care of share price as well as the cash issue. Even if they announce a funding strategy on Wednesday that will not solve the cash issue long term. They have to move product! Just go ahead and dump a huge pail of ice water on this thread, falconquest!!
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Post by slugworth008 on Nov 5, 2016 11:18:53 GMT -5
Ok.. I'll bite.. since a few times a year i mention buyout prices albeit I'm not overzealous (I don't think) nor am I pessismist.. 1 $ 2 combined - . I say if we got bought out now for everything and after improve label and lower tiers by Insurance Companies (forgetting where the pps is currently) I say we can get. 6-8 billion. or $12-16 pps. We were previously at around 5 billion at SNY partnership announcement. This was before we saw the facts what Afrezza could really do.. , before epi, before RLS ... cannibus etc... That would be kinda epic from this point... but less than I thought we could get 2 years ago after SNY partnership. 3. I'm guessing you collect your money the day the stocks goes up on the news, then you sell.. Usually when a buyout happens the stock goes to that pps and stays within a few cents and trades there before the close of the deal or you hold out hoping someone outbids the acquiring CO. of course if it's an all cash transaction i believe it does you no good to hold on to the close of the sale. If it is stock and cash or stock I think there is a benefit to holding on... but maybe incorrect on that. GL> I'm with you on your guesstimate of 12-16 at this time. And honestly I'd take it at this point.
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Post by slugworth008 on Nov 5, 2016 11:21:15 GMT -5
Optimism or pessimism makes no difference to the success of Mannkind. They are both a state of mind. Success in a company is driven by demand just as the share price is. You can be as optimistic as you want, it has no affect. Mannkind needs to sell product. That will take care of share price as well as the cash issue. Even if they announce a funding strategy on Wednesday that will not solve the cash issue long term. They have to move product! Truth.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 5, 2016 12:39:45 GMT -5
Ok.. I'll bite.. since a few times a year i mention buyout prices albeit I'm not overzealous (I don't think) nor am I pessismist.. 1 $ 2 combined - . I say if we got bought out now for everything and after improve label and lower tiers by Insurance Companies (forgetting where the pps is currently) I say we can get. 6-8 billion. or $12-16 pps. We were previously at around 5 billion at SNY partnership announcement. This was before we saw the facts what Afrezza could really do.. , before epi, before RLS ... cannibus etc... That would be kinda epic from this point... but less than I thought we could get 2 years ago after SNY partnership. 3. I'm guessing you collect your money the day the stocks goes up on the news, then you sell.. Usually when a buyout happens the stock goes to that pps and stays within a few cents and trades there before the close of the deal or you hold out hoping someone outbids the acquiring CO. of course if it's an all cash transaction i believe it does you no good to hold on to the close of the sale. If it is stock and cash or stock I think there is a benefit to holding on... but maybe incorrect on that. GL> I'm with you on your guesstimate of 12-16 at this time. And honestly I'd take it at this point.Slugworth, the above wins the award for "Understatement of the Year" for 2016 (I can't even begin to imagine one more deserving coming up before year end)!!
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Nov 5, 2016 12:42:04 GMT -5
This segregation and lumping us as a "pessimistic" bunch is uncalled for and immature.
I'm trying my best working in the background doing everything I can to help this company and drug to succeed. Probably doing much more than most around here watching this satire. I simply don't have any obligations towards anyone to advertise or announce what I'm working on.
With that said, the situation is bad and all the optimism in the world is not going to move the needle or sell any product.
This is not a political campaign where you run on "hope". This is a business and we all know it is failing miserably.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 5, 2016 15:02:22 GMT -5
Many of us are left with no proverbial pot to piss in.
But heck... I'll play optimism. To do you one better I think we'll all be billionaires... and by Wednesday. Thursday is far too long for me to wait. The bidding war is likely to not be limited to just pharma. After Apple bids on MNKD I think the final purchase will be by a consortium including Google, Verizon and Samsung all pooling their resources to triple Apple's bid.
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Post by orlon on Nov 5, 2016 15:13:40 GMT -5
Seems like a lot people started sniffing glue here.
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Post by bioexec25 on Nov 5, 2016 15:58:59 GMT -5
I was just thinking what the ROI timeframe would be @$12-$16 BO given the current scripts and nearly sprayed my beer. Lol.
Btw, hope a newbie doesn't stumble onto the thread and sip the koolaid. :-)
Off topic but congrats Liane on Cubs win. What a series.
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Post by chuck on Nov 5, 2016 16:17:16 GMT -5
It's fun to dream of winning the lottery but the mnkd winning numbers have already been drawn and there were no winners.
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Post by falconquest on Nov 5, 2016 16:44:32 GMT -5
Actually chuck as much as it pains me to admit it, the shorts were the big winners. If they shorted at $11.00 they are likely sitting on a sandy beach with a drink in their hands right now. Wish I would have been a contrarian sometimes. baba, hate to be the wet blanket but I'm just calling it like I see it. Matt needs to have a reason for optimism on Wednesday or this is going farther South than it already has.
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