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Post by babaoriley on Nov 10, 2016 2:12:34 GMT -5
"The way shorting works, as most here know, is that you are buying when you close and selling when you open. So would someone who shorts at $5 care about whether they close at $.50 or $1? Well, it's literally the difference between buying at $.50 vs $1. Your profit is cut in half in the latter case, regardless of where you opened (sell)." Hey, Carolina, one of us has to think of the above a bit more.  The way I look at your example, if I short 1000 shares at $5, they give me $5,000, so if I close at .50, I make $4,500, and if I close at $1.00, I make $4,000. But take a look, I might be way off, sort of par for the course, lately. |
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Post by patten1962 on Nov 10, 2016 3:52:19 GMT -5
Ok, question on stock price. Close tomorrow?
Close end of November?
Close end of December?
Is it crazy to think $4.00 per share in 2 months? Don't kill me on this, just wondering.
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Nov 10, 2016 4:57:35 GMT -5
Hey baba, you're right! Thanks for correcting me. I'll remove the shorting piece from the original post.
The actual way shorting works is that every time the price is halved, you gain 1X your investment and when it doubles, you lose 1X your investment. But I was mistaken on the impact to profitability.
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Post by peppy on Nov 10, 2016 5:31:00 GMT -5
Ok, question on stock price. Close tomorrow? Close end of November? Close end of December? Is it crazy to think $4.00 per share in 2 months? Don't kill me on this, just wondering. You are not crazy now. 4 bucks doable in 2 months.
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Post by uvula on Nov 10, 2016 5:53:43 GMT -5
Covering at $1 vs .50 does not cut your profit in half. If I shorted at $5 I would make $4/share vs. $4.50/share.
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Post by akemp3000 on Nov 10, 2016 6:41:12 GMT -5
As a long time investor in the TS science who has never sold or loaned a share, I'm very excited to hear the balance sheet has been improved and the runway extended. I don't expect a near-term squeeze but the clock is now ticking on shorts. There's close to a zero chance any intelligent shorts will hang on to watch the start of TV commercials which should begin late in the first half of 2017. The next six months could be VERY good for this stock and a squeeze is finally beginning to appear on the horizon.
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Post by kball on Nov 10, 2016 8:12:21 GMT -5
Nice call by the folks from this board who have been saying all along debt forgiveness at the minimum for any settlement deal.
Also pretty nice work by the MNKD lawyers imo
Wonder what the original ask was? Maybe closer to what they got + 100 million cash next year? Who knows.
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Post by novafett on Nov 10, 2016 9:34:09 GMT -5
Bought 2k more shares today.. i had some play money left  Cost basis down to $2.12  |
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Post by esstan2001 on Nov 10, 2016 9:37:47 GMT -5
Great job with the cash but I'm still very worried about sales. I really don't feel they have figured out a way to successfully increase scripts yet. You are correct, they have not. But what you should be proud of is that they are performing a lot of due diligence to understand their obstacles. It is almost incredible how patient Mike sounded with regards to the "42 reps", "understanding promotional sensitivity", and not burning cash before grasping Afrezzas best marketing strategy. They are clearly on a different agenda and timeline than us investors and it is a big learning lesson for me as someone sitting on the sidelines. I hope to take this type of experience with me to further my career in the corporate world. Its not about the pressure that is put on you but making the right decisions to do whats best in the allotted time you have. They had an allotted time of Q1 2017 and they outperformed, in my opinion, to allow proper runway to keep understanding how to best get their product in the hands of those who need and want it. They solved and are continuing to solve so many issues in parallel its a bit surreal and its a reflection of how hard they must be working. I really appreciate the approach Mike takes with the data available to them. It sounds like they are squeezing the fruit dry for data that will allow them to better understand how to optimize Afrezza marketing. Though I do not necessarily agree with all of it, it provides perspective when you hear things like the amount of reps was almost half of what we all expected to be out there (42 compared to 70). Yes- Mike really seems to know what he is doing- very analytical, puts all the right metrics in place and takes his next steps based on data. Certainly looks not to be his first rodeo. |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Nov 10, 2016 9:56:26 GMT -5
Covering at $1 vs .50 does not cut your profit in half. If I shorted at $5 I would make $4/share vs. $4.50/share. You are both correct. As I see it, the confusion is that the term profit needs to be distinguished between "dollar" profit and "percent" profit. Shorting a stock from ($5 to $1) vs. ($5 to .50) is a difference of 50 cents of "dollar" profit ($5-$1=$4.00) vs. ($5-$.50=$4.50) which is $4.50-$4.00=$.50 difference in dollar profit. However, it is also 100% in terms of difference in "percentage" profit (5/1=5 times) vs. (5/.50=10 times). So, 10/5=2 times the profit. Kinda hard to get your head around. Shorting is a different concept than us longs are used to. It is much more dangerous. If you buy a share of stock for $5 (lets say Amazon in 1990), it can go as high as the sky and you can make a killing. Your profit could be infinite. And, at worst, if it went bankrupt, you would only lose $5. Now, on the other hand, if you shorted a stock at $5 and it went bankrupt, you would only make $5. However, if it went up like Amazon, you would be in a LOT of trouble! Your LOSS could be infinite. So, that being said, I am surprised that the shorts aren't desperately covering NOW after yesterday's CC and sending the price to the sky. The price is only going up from here. And, as someone previously mentioned, I would not want to be holding this stock short when the TV commercials hit. LOL. Ask your financial advisor if holding MNKD short is right for you.  |
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Post by slugworth008 on Nov 10, 2016 10:06:10 GMT -5
Ok, question on stock price. Close tomorrow? Close end of November? Close end of December? Is it crazy to think $4.00 per share in 2 months? Don't kill me on this, just wondering. It's not crazy and it's totally possible. IMO - We should be in that vicinity right now. |
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Post by slugworth008 on Nov 10, 2016 10:09:05 GMT -5
You are correct, they have not. But what you should be proud of is that they are performing a lot of due diligence to understand their obstacles. It is almost incredible how patient Mike sounded with regards to the "42 reps", "understanding promotional sensitivity", and not burning cash before grasping Afrezzas best marketing strategy. They are clearly on a different agenda and timeline than us investors and it is a big learning lesson for me as someone sitting on the sidelines. I hope to take this type of experience with me to further my career in the corporate world. Its not about the pressure that is put on you but making the right decisions to do whats best in the allotted time you have. They had an allotted time of Q1 2017 and they outperformed, in my opinion, to allow proper runway to keep understanding how to best get their product in the hands of those who need and want it. They solved and are continuing to solve so many issues in parallel its a bit surreal and its a reflection of how hard they must be working. I really appreciate the approach Mike takes with the data available to them. It sounds like they are squeezing the fruit dry for data that will allow them to better understand how to optimize Afrezza marketing. Though I do not necessarily agree with all of it, it provides perspective when you hear things like the amount of reps was almost half of what we all expected to be out there (42 compared to 70). Yes- Mike really seems to know what he is doing- very analytical, puts all the right metrics in place and takes his next steps based on data. Certainly looks not to be his first rodeo. I'm in the insurance leads biz - And all of my marketing is data driven. As the saying goes: Without data - your just another person with an opinion. Mike has it pegged IMO....and holy smokes did we ever need a CC like that one. Awesome job MNKD!!! |
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Post by derek2 on Nov 10, 2016 10:26:06 GMT -5
Well, I guess I agree with the thread title. Closed out my options strangle and put the profit into just boring old long MNKD shares.
Matt & the team pulled a rabbit out of the hat, IMO. At least I didn't see it coming.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 10, 2016 10:37:26 GMT -5
Ok, question on stock price. Close tomorrow? Close end of November? Close end of December? Is it crazy to think $4.00 per share in 2 months? Don't kill me on this, just wondering. Patten, we don't kill crazy people, so you needn't worry. |
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Post by victoria on Nov 10, 2016 10:53:26 GMT -5
Ok, question on stock price. Close tomorrow? Close end of November? Close end of December? Is it crazy to think $4.00 per share in 2 months? Don't kill me on this, just wondering. Patten, we don't kill crazy people, so you needn't worry. We are the crazy people, after all I just bought more calls (Leaps 2018) Now I will sit and wait. |
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The way I look at your example, if I short 1000 shares at $5, they give me $5,000, so if I close at .50, I make $4,500, and if I close at $1.00, I make $4,000. But take a look, I might be way off, sort of par for the course, lately.
Cost basis down to $2.12 
