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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Nov 10, 2016 11:14:16 GMT -5
Covering at $1 vs .50 does not cut your profit in half. If I shorted at $5 I would make $4/share vs. $4.50/share. You are both correct. As I see it, the confusion is that the term profit needs to be distinguished between "dollar" profit and "percent" profit. Shorting a stock from ($5 to $1) vs. ($5 to .50) is a difference of 50 cents of "dollar" profit ($5-$1=$4.00) vs. ($5-$.50=$4.50) which is $4.50-$4.00=$.50 difference in dollar profit. However, it is also 100% in terms of difference in "percentage" profit (5/1=5 times) vs. (5/.50=10 times). So, 10/5=2 times the profit. Kinda hard to get your head around. Shorting is a different concept than us longs are used to. It is much more dangerous. If you buy a share of stock for $5 (lets say Amazon in 1990), it can go as high as the sky and you can make a killing. Your profit could be infinite. And, at worst, if it went bankrupt, you would only lose $5. Now, on the other hand, if you shorted a stock at $5 and it went bankrupt, you would only make $5. However, if it went up like Amazon, you would be in a LOT of trouble! Your LOSS could be infinite. So, that being said, I am surprised that the shorts aren't desperately covering NOW after yesterday's CC and sending the price to the sky. The price is only going up from here. And, as someone previously mentioned, I would not want to be holding this stock short when the TV commercials hit. LOL. Ask your financial advisor if holding MNKD short is right for you.   IMO they believe that they can control this stock. Shorts make money with the profit from selling short and delay buying it as long they can control it. They have several means to do so as volume is rather low (12M at $0.61) and interestingly not many momotraders have jumped on this one although it is the best US mover today. We will see some articles on the low scripts, that this company will never be profitable etc. It worked in the past as they quickly wiped out every starting short squeeze. Script increases are the only thing that will make shorts nervous. |
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Post by parrerob on Nov 10, 2016 11:19:31 GMT -5
IMO they believe that they can control this stock. Shorts make money with the profit from selling short and delay buying it as long they can control it. They have several means to do so as volume is rather low (12M at $0.61) and interestingly not many momotraders have jumped on this one although it is the best US mover today. We will see some articles on the low scripts, that this company will never be profitable etc. It worked in the past as they quickly wiped out every starting short squeeze. Script increases are the only thing that will make shorts nervous.
Totally agree ! also a milestone coming from the pipeline will help ! Validating the pipeline (not only Afrezza) will be a strong message to investors and will help Afrezza as well... IMO
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2016 11:20:10 GMT -5
You are correct, they have not. But what you should be proud of is that they are performing a lot of due diligence to understand their obstacles. It is almost incredible how patient Mike sounded with regards to the "42 reps", "understanding promotional sensitivity", and not burning cash before grasping Afrezzas best marketing strategy. They are clearly on a different agenda and timeline than us investors and it is a big learning lesson for me as someone sitting on the sidelines. I hope to take this type of experience with me to further my career in the corporate world. Its not about the pressure that is put on you but making the right decisions to do whats best in the allotted time you have. They had an allotted time of Q1 2017 and they outperformed, in my opinion, to allow proper runway to keep understanding how to best get their product in the hands of those who need and want it. They solved and are continuing to solve so many issues in parallel its a bit surreal and its a reflection of how hard they must be working. I really appreciate the approach Mike takes with the data available to them. It sounds like they are squeezing the fruit dry for data that will allow them to better understand how to optimize Afrezza marketing. Though I do not necessarily agree with all of it, it provides perspective when you hear things like the amount of reps was almost half of what we all expected to be out there (42 compared to 70). Yes- Mike really seems to know what he is doing- very analytical, puts all the right metrics in place and takes his next steps based on data. Certainly looks not to be his first rodeo. So even though they put together a commercialization team in record time, they were selling and beta testing some ideas at the same time. Sounds like things are tightened up as they have more and better information now, improved managed care, Medicare & Medicaid coverage. The sample packs have been reconfigured so higher unit users will only inhale 1-2x per dose so an improved user experience. Based on this, NRx and TRx should start to steadily grow, correct with TRx growth starting to accelerate a bit as proper patient titration as a % of all patients trying Afrezza will increase. With a commercialization team in place now for several months, a lot of bugs worked out of the system. The new reps coming on next year will have the benefit of a training program that has been used several times, refined and enhanced along with the benefit of key learnings derived from MNKD 2.0 and as such, the new reps should get up to speed a bit sooner. Long winded way of saying NRx and TRx must start to grow and this is the canary in the coal mine. They are not investing in 1H '17 TV ads unless they believe they have enough info and have refined things to the point where the estimated ROI is acceptable. Good call by the team yesterday and hats off to Matt P, Mike C, Ray U and Rose A. Hope to see sales growth that offsets some, all or more than all of the costs of the additional reps and advertising spend. Would be great to see cash burn remain flat even with additional expenses. |
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Post by patten1962 on Nov 10, 2016 13:17:17 GMT -5
Patten, we don't kill crazy people, so you needn't worry.  We are the crazy people, after all I just bought more calls (Leaps 2018) Now I will sit and wait. Me too! |
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Post by alethea on Nov 10, 2016 13:27:58 GMT -5
We are the crazy people, after all I just bought more calls (Leaps 2018) Now I will sit and wait. Me too! Increased my long shares by 68%. One eighth of that I got yesterday after hours for 56 cents. The rest of the increase, the 7/8'ths I got today for about 63.5 cents. I think SOME of the shorts are going to want to finally get out. Wall Street manipulators way too rich and powerful to get trapped in an Epic Short Squeeze, BUT I do believe they will be slowly covering in the days and weeks ahead.  |
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 10, 2016 13:29:27 GMT -5
Victoria, what caused you to leap to 2018 instead of 2019?
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