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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 9, 2016 22:13:49 GMT -5
We seem to be stuck at sub 300 scripts. At some point we need to blow past this - the question is when?  |
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Post by promann on Dec 10, 2016 8:37:00 GMT -5
I vote next Friday. But if not then it probably won't happen until after the holidays mid January but it is going to happen I can see that Afrezza is gaining some with people becoming aware of it and it's advantages. Just a matter of time. For you Naysayers you can not stop it it's going to gain traction in the coming months.
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Post by hawaiiguy42 on Dec 10, 2016 9:49:41 GMT -5
I posted a few weeks ago, by they end of January 2017 we will see a positive turn around in script numbers. I also believe sometime in April to June of 2017 we will begin to see a "snow ball" affect of users. If this occurs, by December 2017 (this time next year) scripts will have dramatically increased. Now I'm not a card reader, but I can see (envision) the road path by putting all the pieces of the puzzle together. Once the pieces all come together, MNKD will no longer need to worry about a runway... all the cards will fall into place, FINALLY!
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Post by falconquest on Dec 10, 2016 9:56:12 GMT -5
I'm not so concerned about any particular milestone. What I would like to see is an ever increasing number of scripts and an increasing rate in the number of scripts. This will tell us that Afrezza has finally arrived. The difference being a long term view as opposed to short term.
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 10, 2016 11:22:28 GMT -5
I posted a few weeks ago, by they end of January 2017 we will see a positive turn around in script numbers. I also believe sometime in April to June of 2017 we will begin to see a "snow ball" affect of users. If this occurs, by December 2017 (this time next year) scripts will have dramatically increased. Now I'm not a card reader, but I can see (envision) the road path by putting all the pieces of the puzzle together. Once the pieces all come together, MNKD will no longer need to worry about a runway... all the cards will fall into place, FINALLY! Sorry I missed you previous post. Not only do I like your train of thought HawaiiGuy - If that doesn't occur we're in trouble. IMO |
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Dec 10, 2016 16:26:05 GMT -5
I'm sure we will break through 300 very soon. But what's so special about 300?
I'm just curious because as far as sales are concerned at least 4000 is needed just to break even.
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 10, 2016 21:29:47 GMT -5
I'm sure we will break through 300 very soon. But what's so special about 300? I'm just curious because as far as sales are concerned at least 4000 is needed just to break even. It seems like 300 is a barrier at the moment - One that needs to be crossed and held. No question we need thousands of weekly scripts to really "arrive"...however I've seen many bio stocks well above our pps with non-break even script numbers. So IMO the trend is our friend...right now we don't have that. Personally, I believe that once MNKD shows the market that Afrezza is on it's way to blockbuster status......that's when the fun starts. JMHO |
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Post by surplusvalue on Dec 10, 2016 23:41:52 GMT -5
I'm sure we will break through 300 very soon. But what's so special about 300? I'm just curious because as far as sales are concerned at least 4000 is needed just to break even. Wait... I'm starting to experience a strange condition. Like Jeff Goldblum in Cronenberg's The Fly. I'm ...I'm...I'm ... going to agree with you. (just kidding...too many here give you a hard time) . Absolutely right 300 scripts is nothing. What, are people supposed to celebrate when this happens? Talk about setting the bar too low. Less than 50 sales people and none of them full time until sometime in January. Even so Mike C said that it takes about 6 weeks for a sales person to get a firm footing. Sanofi clearly stated that even at 600 scripts that Afrezza was not capable of being commercialized. That's a serious stigma that has to be confronted. I don't think that 4000 is necessary for the market to begin to take notice of Afrezza but something around 1200 scripts with slowly increasing numbers after that are probably needed. Breaking even and or turning profitable are an entirely different matter. Happy Holidays everyone !!! |
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Post by liane on Dec 11, 2016 6:30:25 GMT -5
Just a reminder - when creating a poll, please include an appropriate date when the poll will lock (generally no more than a week). We don't need these things going on endlessly. I will lock this poll a week after it was created.
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 11, 2016 7:29:53 GMT -5
I'm sure we will break through 300 very soon. But what's so special about 300? I'm just curious because as far as sales are concerned at least 4000 is needed just to break even. Breaking 300 is simply an important milestone to indicate growing scripts. Next, it will be 500, then 1,000 and so on. If this company is going to achieve the greatness that many of us believe, the pps is going to jump and the shorts are going to exit on the milestones showing growth long before reaching the 4,000 mark. That's why each milestone and especially the 300 that begins the trend is so special. |
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 11, 2016 11:47:17 GMT -5
Just a reminder - when creating a poll, please include an appropriate date when the poll will lock (generally no more than a week). We don't need these things going on endlessly. I will lock this poll a week after it was created. Will do Liane  |
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 11, 2016 19:21:25 GMT -5
300 is a meaningless and mildly depressing number. I am more interested in how long to reach 600 which was the Sanofi high tide mark. Sanofi may have been sandbagging but they were still out-performing the current salesforce, at this point their NRx number was twice what we are getting.
Between DVAX and MNKD I really out to be more careful with biotechs!
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Dec 11, 2016 19:32:38 GMT -5
Slugworth, I see what you're trying to achieve and I can understand you perceiving certain numbers as important figures. But I honestly don't think it makes any difference. We will surely break through 300 very soon. But then what? Wait around 2 more years in hopes of getting 400 scrips? 500 scripts? Do we have any faith in any foundation laid out that can help go up from and maintain and respectable momentum? Just as numbers can break through 300 they can just as easily drop back down to 200. The point is that we are so darn far off from the basic goal of breaking even that these minuscule fluctuations are laughable at best.
The main concern which I almost never see discussed around here is what changes is management planning on implementing that will eventually turn the tide. There was discussion of perm hires in Jan and new efficacy packets. But beyond that I don't recall hearing anything that could make any significant difference. Or maybe I missed something.
I'm seeing a pattern with this company. Which is the inability to learn from past mistakes and never having any backup plans until it's either too late or down to the wire.
In order to get from 300 scrips to 4000, colossal changes and advancements need to be made. But instead we tend to become satisfied with the sitting around and hoping for salvation strategy.
Ironically, the company we dissed the most (Sanofi) turned out to be the one that came to the rescue at the right time by extending the runway. I'm sure there had to be some arm twisting. But nonetheless, absolutely nothing of any major importance has materialized since Jan 2016 that translates into cold hard cash. No milestones from RLS (Do they even exist), no partnerships, no nothing...
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Post by falconquest on Dec 11, 2016 20:32:49 GMT -5
Couldn't agree more dictatorsaurus.
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 11, 2016 22:54:05 GMT -5
It is quite easy to see why the shorts are still circling, just look at the financial 8K that was filed.The revenue doesn't cover the costs by some distance, and that is with a zero cost for raw materials (it was fully depreciated at the Sanofi split). The Sanofi cash will extend the runway but unless sales pick up dramatically it will not affect the outcome as it is a one time event.
At the moment it is a race against time as to whether Mike can get the insurance companies onboard before we reach the end of that runway. Twitter and JDRF walks are good PR but they are not going to turn this around on their own. Without better insurance cover sales will go nowhere. Get the sales though and anything is possible. That's is my basic investment thesis - this is a high risk/high reward investment which is why I use options and not shares. The downside is a total loss whether I hold equity or options however the upside is far higher with options so I don't need a home run, a couple of dollars will do nicely.
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