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Post by ashiwi on Apr 5, 2014 16:40:09 GMT -5
Both E Lily and Novo abandoned their inhaled insulin products. It's certainly extremely difficult , time consuming and an expensive proposition. But it lets us know they like the concept they just couldn't get it done. We all know about Exubera and the 2.8 Billion dollar write off for Pfizer. Pfizer expected Exubera to be a 2 billion $ drug. The market for Diabetes has only grown over the past few years and continues to grow exponentially. Plain and simple, it's a world wide epidemic. MNKD has a 2 billion $ write off on its books and 10 billion $ in retail sales of insulin on hand. The qustion is, I would have to assume Novo, E Lilly, Pfizer, Sanofi among others would have to be drooling over the Afrezza / Technosphere pipeline. How much is MNKD worth to them? The debate will continue through the approval on April 15. How can there not be a bidding war. The debate over partnering or buyout will also continue for a few more days, weeks or months. I am in the buy out camp. Price  I would just be guessing. I just wish I was a fly on the wall at Greenhill. The clock is ticking and we'll have our answers very soon. I've been on board for 4 years, coincidently my hair has turned gray in the interim. With type 2 diabetes running in my family, I might be an Afrezza user one of these days. Just don't know who's name will be on the bottle. |
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Post by biotec on Apr 5, 2014 17:07:45 GMT -5
20 Bil buyout, I think thats what it will be. Yes I think a buyout not a partnership.
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Apr 5, 2014 17:50:04 GMT -5
20 Bil buyout, I think thats what it will be. Yes I think a buyout not a partnership. Who ever pays 20 Billion will be getting MNKD for almost 75% off. Not sure I want to see that. |
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Post by biotec on Apr 5, 2014 18:08:16 GMT -5
20 Bil buyout, I think thats what it will be. Yes I think a buyout not a partnership. Who ever pays 20 Billion will be getting MNKD for almost 75% off. Not sure I want to see that. I hope your right.Im just talking out of the gate price.The way Matt talked the other day on CNBC, It sounds like MNKD has some stuff going on that we don't know about.So my ? what do you think its worth?Maybe no one is interested? We will find out soon. But there might be less bidding then we think. Big pharma has more money then ever to spend, But are they looking at MNKD? |
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Post by biotec on Apr 5, 2014 18:17:56 GMT -5
20 Bil buyout, I think thats what it will be. Yes I think a buyout not a partnership. Who ever pays 20 Billion will be getting MNKD for almost 75% off. Not sure I want to see that. So you think MNKD is a 80Bil company? Can you explan that number? |
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Post by MnkdMainer (MM) on Apr 5, 2014 18:24:40 GMT -5
"Just don't know who's name will be on the bottle." Ah, do you mean inhaler? Or carton?  |
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Post by harshal1981 on Apr 5, 2014 22:51:05 GMT -5
Considering $2.8bil write off that Pfizer took and the "cancer risk" highlighted by the panel as well, No company, I repeat, NO COMPANY in the world, no matter how much cash pile they have to throwaway, will be able to convince the board and share holders to buy MNKD at $20 bil. Thats my strong opinion. Who ever is hoping for sudden announcement of $40 share price one fine morning due to take over is really day dreaming at best.
I think partnership on favorable terms to MNKD is the only thing that can happen. That too not with super huge advance payment. Good enough but no super huge. Hence, the best appreciation in share price for MNKD will occur after first quarter sales data results. Assuming April approval and September launch, Latest SP will have best reflection of MNKD value is March 2015 ish. I beleive $2 bil is very reasonable sales target. and 8x to 10x Market cap is quite expected if the first quarter sales data reflects the good curve that has potential to breach the $2bn mark in few years.
First quarter uptake is the best indication of market reception and how efficiently company has launched the product commercially. And that is the only time the share price will reflect the real value. So we are in for long. But if you stay long enough, I bet, you will be rewarded handsomely provided we don't have more non-smoking cancer cases and Type 2 syringe-phobics drive the sales number considerably up.
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Post by jpg on Apr 6, 2014 6:32:30 GMT -5
Harsal,
I agree with you that it would be unlikely for a CEO of a big pharma to put up 40$ a share now. As you say the career risk would be just to big.
I must agsin respectfully disagree with your understanding of the cancer thing. You will have more non smoking cancer cases if we sell enough of this stuff... You will have lung cancer in non smokers if they drink coffee or apple juice or whatever but that does not in itself establish a relatiomship between the 2. That is the whole point of the not so complicated things the panel members were saying and of the likely surveillance protocol set up post approval. Now maybe this cancer thing will be spun by shorts and maybe competitors (an illegal and potentially criminal activity) but hopefully MNKD shareholders will get their facts straight and not repeat scientifically flawed short information.
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Post by spiro on Apr 6, 2014 8:40:56 GMT -5
Harsal, daydreaming and irrational exhuberance has not been against the rules on this message board. it is very easy to daydream, when you own stock with a unique product on the verge of FDA approval. I find your Exubera argument amusing. It's much more likely that big pharma understands that Exubera was a much different product, with a poor delivery device and incredibly poor marketing. Pfizer has admitted publicly numerous times that they failed to adequately market and promote Exhubera, which severely limited it's chances for success. Because the cost to develop new drug products from scratch now approaches $5 billion dollars, it would be insane for a major pharma CEO and it's board not to considering making a serious offer for MNKD. When you consider the potential value of Technosphere delivery with a pain and other applications, MNKD's value doubles. I like Rak's proposal of a buyout for Afrezza only for $10-$15 billion, MNKD keeps Afrezza production and pipeline etc. www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2013/08/11/how-the-staggering-cost-of-inventing-new-drugs-is-shaping-the-future-of-medicine/Spiro here, daydreaming in Miami |
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Apr 6, 2014 8:48:21 GMT -5
Who ever pays 20 Billion will be getting MNKD for almost 75% off. Not sure I want to see that. So you think MNKD is a 80Bil company? Can you explan that number? partly tongue in cheek post but I believe MNKD has the technology to rival many big pharmas out there like AMGEN in the next 10 years if not sooner. I do believe MNKD has the potential to be a very big player if technosphere can create a portfolio of safe inhalable drugs. There is no other company on the horizon with such a disruptive technology. |
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Post by liane on Apr 6, 2014 8:50:54 GMT -5
It's all about timeframe. 5-10 years, and we're in the catbird's seat. I'm more than willing to wait and continue accumulating.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 6, 2014 10:36:15 GMT -5
Considering $2.8bil write off that Pfizer took and the "cancer risk" highlighted by the panel as well, No company, I repeat, NO COMPANY in the world, no matter how much cash pile they have to throwaway, will be able to convince the board and share holders to buy MNKD at $20 bil. Thats my strong opinion. Who ever is hoping for sudden announcement of $40 share price one fine morning due to take over is really day dreaming at best. I think partnership on favorable terms to MNKD is the only thing that can happen. That too not with super huge advance payment. Good enough but no super huge. Hence, the best appreciation in share price for MNKD will occur after first quarter sales data results. Assuming April approval and September launch, Latest SP will have best reflection of MNKD value is March 2015 ish. I beleive $2 bil is very reasonable sales target. and 8x to 10x Market cap is quite expected if the first quarter sales data reflects the good curve that has potential to breach the $2bn mark in few years. First quarter uptake is the best indication of market reception and how efficiently company has launched the product commercially. And that is the only time the share price will reflect the real value. So we are in for long. But if you stay long enough, I bet, you will be rewarded handsomely provided we don't have more non-smoking cancer cases and Type 2 syringe-phobics drive the sales number considerably up. |
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Post by biotec on Apr 6, 2014 10:54:46 GMT -5
So you think MNKD is a 80Bil company? Can you explan that number? partly tongue in cheek post but I believe MNKD has the technology to rival many big pharmas out there like AMGEN in the next 10 years if not sooner. I do believe MNKD has the potential to be a very big player if technosphere can create a portfolio of safe inhalable drugs. There is no other company on the horizon with such a disruptive technology. I agree Mnkd, There is alot more value then Afrezza, I believe MNKD has also been working on other products, We will soon find out. |
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I would just be guessing. I just wish I was a fly on the wall at Greenhill.
