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Post by alethea on Dec 12, 2016 15:17:08 GMT -5
It was a good post until the last part. Clearly all us longs know the story. So it was either meant to be insulting, or meant for the new people on the board? What is amazing is how much time the shorts put into this. Here and ST and Twitter. Nate says he's never seen with any other stock so much baloney being thrown out there. Truth wins. It's just does. It's up to Matt to keep increasing our run way. He's done well and I believe will keep it up until we get some traction. Mike is clearly doing all he can. Along with many others. We have a great team and all of us longs are apart of that team. This stock is going to turn around, it already is headed up. There will be a time when we start to move and it will be a blast for all of us that have stuck together! Merry Christmas all:-)) (warning - if you're looking for blind optimism, move on and no need to read my post.) Nate is not relevant. Neither is spencer or AF or me or you when it comes to mnkd and sales of afrezza and insurance coverage and endo perspectives and diabetics who live with this disease every day. I think Nate is very relevant. He believes there are over 100 M shorts who will have great difficulty covering. I agree with Nate. IMO, matt hasn't done well. Frankly, other than keeping the lights on, his efforts haven't produced fruit yet at all. Matt did a fantastic job negotiating the settling of issues with Sanofi announced on the 3rd quarter call. MNKD's financial position improved by 130 M. Runway extended at least 6 or 7 months. 71 M of debt to Sanofi forgiven.I'd hate to see a newbie come on board here and read the fantasy that's posted daily as fact or actual points of hope for mnkd. The best xmas gift I can think of is to help new investors to avoid mnkd till things turn around, not encourage them to go long on mnkd at this stage. Thank you for your kind concern. I hope it's genuine.There's no boat to miss here. If mnkd pops to five, investors haven't "missed" anything because if mnkd does take off, 5 bucks a share is a pittance for what they will be worth longer term. It's a lack of sales that's killing mnkd, not the shorts. What??? The price now sits at 60 cents. If indeed something material pops in the coming days or weeks and the PPS pops to $5, that is not a big deal? Turning 10 K into one hundred thousand wouldn't qualify as having missed something? Could not disagree more. A nearly ten-fold price increase being missed is no big deal??? And what if the pop to $5 were to be followed by an announcement of the sale of the Company or of Afrezza for $8 per share? I'm sorry but getting in after the pop to 5 misses most of the gain.Shorts don't make the blood, they simply smell it and come running. Longs do the same thing just a different side of the trade. Wrong. Shorts have come very close to killing MNKD by denying them equity financing. They are engaged in a very real strategy to bankrupt MNKD so that they do not have to cover their 100 M short shares...ever.And brotherm1 , risk assessment isn't living under a rock. I'm glad you take a no guts no glory approach with your money. If that works for you - wonderful. Some others, like myself, prefer a different approach. IMO, guts and glory have nothing to do with it. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note the above comments in Black are da vinci's. All of my postings are in Bolded Blue.
I agree that MNKD is a very risky investment or trade. It may not make it. As Nate continues to say don't buy it if you can't afford to lose it, 100% of it. BUT, if it succeeds it will succeed Big Time. (Big Time that is from here, from 60 cents).
I'm in till the end. All or nothing. Worst case scenario is desperation sale of Afrezza. Should be for more than 60 cents a share for such a wonderful drug. I KNOW. I USE IT.
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Post by promann on Dec 12, 2016 15:25:45 GMT -5
Alethea, great come back! I couldn't agree more with your assessment .. I'm glad you are having great success with Afrezza I wish you the best of luck Thanks
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Post by alethea on Dec 12, 2016 15:47:47 GMT -5
Today is a perfect example of the short selling manipulation that has occurred with the trading of MNKD stock.
Wall Street manipulators grabbed MNKD stock price immediately at today's opening. They shorted it down over 8% in less than 15 minutes. Volume of 740 K in the first 15 minutes. Then, they keep it from rising the rest of the day by buying everything, not allowing the price to rise much. It's called sitting on the bid.
And since the first 15 minutes..... relatively low volume, utterly controlling/limiting the price since. This pattern has been occurring since the partnership with Sanofi was first announced more than two years ago. Recall that MKND is one of the most naked shorted stocks there is, as evidenced by the FTD's (Failure to Deliver) published by NASDAQ.
Short interest at Nov 30 announced at 105.1 M, up from 98.7 M on Nov 15. The price was dropped from $.66 down to $.55 during the corresponding trading period. A 17% price drop despite the excellent financial improvements announced on the 3rd quarter call.
There is something rotten in Denmark. Whether or not Good can overcome Evil in the case of MNKD the stock remains to be seen.
I'm all in. Buy more if you believe in it. Keep it in a non-margin account, a cash account (so it cannot be lent to Short Sellers) and do not lend your shares.
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 12, 2016 16:04:34 GMT -5
Investors in Porsche and Volkswagen in October of 2008 would vehemently dispute the absurdity that shorting isn't important. The stock skyrocketed without any relevance to sales whatsoever. It would be naive to suggest...but MNKD is no Porsche or Volkswagen. While there is refrain from making any prediction of a massive short squeeze for MNKD, the possibility absolutely exists if a significant positive announcement were to occur. Aside from the humanity benefits of TS, a thrill of this biotech game is knowing a short squeeze may never happen or could happen any day without any notice
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2016 16:21:41 GMT -5
davinci, you can analyse and express your thoughts all you want. But those who have made up their minds don't care to read the facts and face reality. You'll be called a short, a FUDster and all kind of ridiculous labels. But I know you don't really care what you're referred to as. You mentioned the issue with sales. Initially we were told there were 70 reps, then that number was dropped to 60, then it was dropped to 42 temps basically hired straight from mall booths that sell cell phone covers and dead-sea facial salt. Do you have exact numbers of how many actual reps they had? Why did it take them 6 months of failure before they decided to hire legal sales reps planned for Jan 2017? I've made up my mind on positions and have stuck with my convictions. I always suggest everyone do the same with their choices. I never have a problem with that because I'm not on anyone's team. Not in grade school, high school, college, or life. Never joined a frat, a group, and I despise group think. I try to follow the facts and let the rest fall where it does. I've enjoyed many posts from this board and it keeps me coming back. The other posts are good for humor, like the one suggesting that since I like 5 dollar stocks I should buy IBM.....lol....that's a good one. Very humorous. Absolutely no exact numbers from how many actual reps they had. No clue. None of us do because they've never given us that information in writing (as far as I know). There's been innuendo but no factual info. The numbers, however, tell a story of what might be likely. What's likely is that mnkd hired a contract sales force and, as we can see, they can't sell the product for all kinds of reasons, the same reasons sny had trouble selling afrezza but not as effective as mnkd can't move the needle at all. Now they are going for actual mnkd sales reps. That decision demonstrates mnkd's need to save money, and, a complete lack of understanding when it comes to pharmaceutical sales (mnkd appears to have learned nothing from the sny timeframe as they are simply repeating the playbook that sny pulled out just with less sales folks). That's ok though in my book because matt has zero experience running a public company let alone running one in the state that mnkd finds itself in right now. He's going to make mistakes as he goes along, which again, is no big deal for me. Matt is not a seasoned CEO. He's getting his seasoning right now. But at least he's trying which is more than can be said for hakan when he was the ceo. Mike C talks a good game but so far has produced nothing in terms of afrezza sales. So when asking about why they endured 6 months of sales failures before making a change, imo it boils down to a lack of experience and a lack of cash to do much else.
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Post by cjm18 on Dec 12, 2016 16:36:01 GMT -5
davinci, you can analyse and express your thoughts all you want. But those who have made up their minds don't care to read the facts and face reality. You'll be called a short, a FUDster and all kind of ridiculous labels. But I know you don't really care what you're referred to as. You mentioned the issue with sales. Initially we were told there were 70 reps, then that number was dropped to 60, then it was dropped to 42 temps basically hired straight from mall booths that sell cell phone covers and dead-sea facial salt. Do you have exact numbers of how many actual reps they had? Why did it take them 6 months of failure before they decided to hire legal sales reps planned for Jan 2017? I've made up my mind on positions and have stuck with my convictions. I always suggest everyone do the same with their choices. I never have a problem with that because I'm not on anyone's team. Not in grade school, high school, college, or life. Never joined a frat, a group, and I despise group think. I try to follow the facts and let the rest fall where it does. I've enjoyed many posts from this board and it keeps me coming back. The other posts are good for humor, like the one suggesting that since I like 5 dollar stocks I should buy IBM.....lol....that's a good one. Very humorous. Absolutely no exact numbers from how many actual reps they had. No clue. None of us do because they've never given us that information in writing (as far as I know). There's been innuendo but no factual info. The numbers, however, tell a story of what might be likely. What's likely is that mnkd hired a contract sales force and, as we can see, they can't sell the product for all kinds of reasons, the same reasons sny had trouble selling afrezza but not as effective as mnkd can't move the needle at all. Now they are going for actual mnkd sales reps. That decision demonstrates mnkd's need to save money, and, a complete lack of understanding when it comes to pharmaceutical sales (mnkd appears to have learned nothing from the sny timeframe as they are simply repeating the playbook that sny pulled out just with less sales folks). That's ok though in my book because matt has zero experience running a public company let alone running one in the state that mnkd finds itself in right now. He's going to make mistakes as he goes along, which again, is no big deal for me. Matt is not a seasoned CEO. He's getting his seasoning right now. But at least he's trying which is more than can be said for hakan when he was the ceo. Mike C talks a good game but so far has produced nothing in terms of afrezza sales. So when asking about why they endured 6 months of sales failures before making a change, imo it boils down to a lack of experience and a lack of cash to do much else. Ok so what was mnkd supposed to do to sell afrezza if hiring reps wasn't the thing to do?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2016 16:45:50 GMT -5
(warning - if you're looking for blind optimism, move on and no need to read my post.) IMO, matt hasn't done well. Frankly, other than keeping the lights on, his efforts haven't produced fruit yet at all. Matt did a fantastic job negotiating the settling of issues with Sanofi announced on the 3rd quarter call. MNKD's financial position improved by 130 M. Runway extended at least 6 or 7 months. 71 M of debt to Sanofi forgiven.I'd hate to see a newbie come on board here and read the fantasy that's posted daily as fact or actual points of hope for mnkd. The best xmas gift I can think of is to help new investors to avoid mnkd till things turn around, not encourage them to go long on mnkd at this stage. Thank you for your kind concern. I hope it's genuine.There's no boat to miss here. If mnkd pops to five, investors haven't "missed" anything because if mnkd does take off, 5 bucks a share is a pittance for what they will be worth longer term. It's a lack of sales that's killing mnkd, not the shorts. What??? The price now sits at 60 cents. If indeed something material pops in the coming days or weeks and the PPS pops to $5, that is not a big deal? Turning 10 K into one hundred thousand wouldn't qualify as having missed something? Could not disagree more. A nearly ten-fold price increase being missed is no big deal??? And what if the pop to $5 were to be followed by an announcement of the sale of the Company or of Afrezza for $8 per share? I'm sorry but getting in after the pop to 5 misses most of the gain.Shorts don't make the blood, they simply smell it and come running. Longs do the same thing just a different side of the trade. Wrong. Shorts have come very close to killing MNKD by denying them equity financing. They are engaged in a very real strategy to bankrupt MNKD so that they do not have to cover their 100 M short shares...ever.And brotherm1 , risk assessment isn't living under a rock. I'm glad you take a no guts no glory approach with your money. If that works for you - wonderful. Some others, like myself, prefer a different approach. IMO, guts and glory have nothing to do with it. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note the above comments in Black are da vinci's. All of my postings are in Bolded Blue.
I agree that MNKD is a very risky investment or trade. It may not make it. As Nate continues to say don't buy it if you can't afford to lose it, 100% of it. BUT, if it succeeds it will succeed Big Time. (Big Time that is from here, from 60 cents).
I'm in till the end. All or nothing. Worst case scenario is desperation sale of Afrezza. Should be for more than 60 cents a share for such a wonderful drug. I KNOW. I USE IT. MNKD"s financial position improved by 130 million? Where's the cash at? Can they spend that 130 million right now? today? Or was it already spent? Playing mnkd as a penny stock can certainly provide for amazing returns if they pop up a bit. And there's plenty of emails that support that style of investing as well, I get them every day in my spam box. MNKD was one of them recently with a little story about their growth prospects.... How did shorts deny mnkd equity financing? Can you list how many financing events mnkd has performed over the last 10 years? There's so many I lost count. But here's a quick view on the subject. In 2006 from the annual report, mnkd had 54.7 million shares outstanding. As of, oh, right now, mnkd has 478.38 million shares outstanding. Please, do explain to me how mnkd has had trouble getting financing??? They've been selling shares and raising funds like it's crack cocaine. MNKD has financed over 2 billion dollars worth of research and development, much of it coming from al but a lot of it coming from the markets and other lending sources, including events last year. Shorts aren't BK'ing mnkd, lack of sales is doing that, imo. Shorts aren't contacting diabetics telling them to not buy afrezza, imo. Shorts aren't contacting endo's buzzing stuff in their ears, imo. I understand you've taken a position. What you and others don't get is that I hope it works out. Last question to you post - why is mnkd worth more than current stock price per share? You mention it's worth a lot more than 60 cents a share. Based on what? You say it's great (I'm sure it is and I'm glad it works for you) but there's only a few hundred others out of about 29 million T2s and 1 million T1s in the US that haven't shown interest. They don't know about it yet? Then what about the thousands that already do know about it? Why aren't they on board? That's the real question to answer. Not some misguided nonsense about a financial boogey man keeping mnkd from getting financing.
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Post by alethea on Dec 12, 2016 16:51:16 GMT -5
Alethea, great come back! I couldn't agree more with your assessment .. I'm glad you are having great success with Afrezza I wish you the best of luck Thanks Thank you proman. It works very well and very fast. Works better and much, much faster than injected insulins I have used in the past. And for Type 1 diabetics, it should be the Gold Standard insulin right now, as we speak, due to its speed and relatively greater safety as regards hypos. I have a T1 friend who would be dead. Went hypo overnight in bed, got up, cracked his head open on the corner of his dresser. Saved by his wife getting him to the ER. Not an uncommon occurrence in the universe of T1's. Except for those with lung issues, I believe nearly every single T1 should be using Afrezza.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2016 16:53:22 GMT -5
I've made up my mind on positions and have stuck with my convictions. I always suggest everyone do the same with their choices. I never have a problem with that because I'm not on anyone's team. Not in grade school, high school, college, or life. Never joined a frat, a group, and I despise group think. I try to follow the facts and let the rest fall where it does. I've enjoyed many posts from this board and it keeps me coming back. The other posts are good for humor, like the one suggesting that since I like 5 dollar stocks I should buy IBM.....lol....that's a good one. Very humorous. Absolutely no exact numbers from how many actual reps they had. No clue. None of us do because they've never given us that information in writing (as far as I know). There's been innuendo but no factual info. The numbers, however, tell a story of what might be likely. What's likely is that mnkd hired a contract sales force and, as we can see, they can't sell the product for all kinds of reasons, the same reasons sny had trouble selling afrezza but not as effective as mnkd can't move the needle at all. Now they are going for actual mnkd sales reps. That decision demonstrates mnkd's need to save money, and, a complete lack of understanding when it comes to pharmaceutical sales (mnkd appears to have learned nothing from the sny timeframe as they are simply repeating the playbook that sny pulled out just with less sales folks). That's ok though in my book because matt has zero experience running a public company let alone running one in the state that mnkd finds itself in right now. He's going to make mistakes as he goes along, which again, is no big deal for me. Matt is not a seasoned CEO. He's getting his seasoning right now. But at least he's trying which is more than can be said for hakan when he was the ceo. Mike C talks a good game but so far has produced nothing in terms of afrezza sales. So when asking about why they endured 6 months of sales failures before making a change, imo it boils down to a lack of experience and a lack of cash to do much else. Ok so what was mnkd supposed to do to sell afrezza if hiring reps wasn't the thing to do? Great question for the CEO of mnkd. I'm an investor and I know my place as an investor. I'm not the CEO. That's why they are paid the big bucks, to answer questions just like that one. So far, matt is swinging hard but he hasn't cracked the code. Maybe 2017 will bring different results. As individual investors, that's the job - determine the best places to put your money to work.
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Dec 12, 2016 16:57:14 GMT -5
I've made up my mind on positions and have stuck with my convictions. I always suggest everyone do the same with their choices. I never have a problem with that because I'm not on anyone's team. Not in grade school, high school, college, or life. Never joined a frat, a group, and I despise group think. I try to follow the facts and let the rest fall where it does. I've enjoyed many posts from this board and it keeps me coming back. The other posts are good for humor, like the one suggesting that since I like 5 dollar stocks I should buy IBM.....lol....that's a good one. Very humorous. Absolutely no exact numbers from how many actual reps they had. No clue. None of us do because they've never given us that information in writing (as far as I know). There's been innuendo but no factual info. The numbers, however, tell a story of what might be likely. What's likely is that mnkd hired a contract sales force and, as we can see, they can't sell the product for all kinds of reasons, the same reasons sny had trouble selling afrezza but not as effective as mnkd can't move the needle at all. Now they are going for actual mnkd sales reps. That decision demonstrates mnkd's need to save money, and, a complete lack of understanding when it comes to pharmaceutical sales (mnkd appears to have learned nothing from the sny timeframe as they are simply repeating the playbook that sny pulled out just with less sales folks). That's ok though in my book because matt has zero experience running a public company let alone running one in the state that mnkd finds itself in right now. He's going to make mistakes as he goes along, which again, is no big deal for me. Matt is not a seasoned CEO. He's getting his seasoning right now. But at least he's trying which is more than can be said for hakan when he was the ceo. Mike C talks a good game but so far has produced nothing in terms of afrezza sales. So when asking about why they endured 6 months of sales failures before making a change, imo it boils down to a lack of experience and a lack of cash to do much else. Ok so what was mnkd supposed to do to sell afrezza if hiring reps wasn't the thing to do? The highly paid CEO of Mannkind should be able to answer that question for you. But obviously he doesn't know himself since sales are abysmal.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2016 17:04:31 GMT -5
Investors in Porsche and Volkswagen in October of 2008 would vehemently dispute the absurdity that shorting isn't important. The stock skyrocketed without any relevance to sales whatsoever. It would be naive to suggest...but MNKD is no Porsche or Volkswagen. While there is refrain from making any prediction of a massive short squeeze for MNKD, the possibility absolutely exists if a significant positive announcement were to occur. Aside from the humanity benefits of TS, a thrill of this biotech game is knowing a short squeeze may never happen or could happen any day without any notice Always exceptions, no? The earth has also experience meteor strikes but they don't happen as the norm, no? Been hit by lightening recently? Or win the lottery ticket in 2016? I thank you for pointing out that there are exceptions, it's important. Will mnkd experience a short squeeze? Damn, I sure hope so. Everyone holding long will be giddy and flush with returns and I for one would be here to congratulate them and take joy in their success. I realize I dont' say that very often, I'm so focused on my investing process. But as you know, I'm sure, those events are rare when compared to the number of trades performed each, day/month/year/decade and out of all those trades, how many happen as the result of a short squeeze? I've never found to much data on that question, but from this article www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2015/05/12/heres-how-to-predict-the-next-short-squeeze/#3e7da4392b55 it stated: "Between Jan. 2011 and Mar. 2014, Markit's found squeezes occur on roughly 0.94% of the stocks in its highly shorted universe." I dont' care to look into what is referred to as the "highly shorted universe" but regardless, finding 1% of a list of stocks that did in fact has a short squeeze is telling on just how rare that type of event can be, even when using a select list of stocks that should produce squeezes. IMO of course.
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Post by cjm18 on Dec 12, 2016 17:05:00 GMT -5
Wouldn't a smart investor know reps werent going to work? Are there drug companies out there that have drugs sold via some other means?
Ok I guess implying they shouldn't have hired reps (because sny had reps )to reverse the down trend in sales is silly only to me.
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Dec 12, 2016 17:16:07 GMT -5
Wouldn't a smart investor know reps werent going to work? Are there drug companies out there that have drugs sold via some other means? Ok I guess implying they shouldn't have hired reps (because sny had reps )to reverse the down trend in sales is silly only to me. They wasted money for 6 months on 42 contracted reps with little to no sales experience. I looked at some of profiles on Linkedin and noticed right away they were hiring individuals with no credentials and no proven records of ever selling anything to anyone. Why didn't they hire legit professionals from day one instead of dragging their feet for 6 months? All that money would have been better spent on reps that can actually turn in a profit. I guess they wanted or had to go cheap so now they have to pay for it twice.
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Post by cjm18 on Dec 12, 2016 17:23:08 GMT -5
Wouldn't a smart investor know reps werent going to work? Are there drug companies out there that have drugs sold via some other means? Ok I guess implying they shouldn't have hired reps (because sny had reps )to reverse the down trend in sales is silly only to me. They wasted money for 6 months on 42 contracted reps with little to no sales experience. I looked at some of profiles on Linkedin and noticed right away they were hiring individuals with no credentials and no proven records of ever selling anything to anyone. Why didn't they hire legit professionals from day one instead of dragging their feet for 6 months? All that money would have been better spent on reps that can actually turn in a profit. I guess they wanted or had to go cheap so now they have to pay for it twice. Maybe for the same reason they only hired 40 and not 70. Cost benefit analysis.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2016 17:30:15 GMT -5
Wouldn't a smart investor know reps werent going to work? Are there drug companies out there that have drugs sold via some other means? Ok I guess implying they shouldn't have hired reps (because sny had reps )to reverse the down trend in sales is silly only to me. It's not smart or dumb imo. I didn't believe hiring contract sales folks would produce much in terms of results but that didnt' make me smart nor did it make anyone dumb who thought it would work out. I also rarely invest in drug launches but again, that didnt' make me smart or dumb. From my experiences, I've come across challenges with development companies turning a corner trying to be a sales and marketing company. I use my experiences to find patterns and I invest on those patterns. And if I was really "smart", I would have shorted mnkd at 10/share. I guess I was "dumb" then, huh?! This has all been said and pee'd on before, but, here goes again for kicks. I have no idea what mnkd should do nor do I pretend to have any real idea. It's not my job or my company and I'm only holding 1k shares these days (yes, long btw). But here are my suggestions to what mnkd should do: 1. do and end run around the endo's. They appear to be a stumbling block, so, time to get passed them as quickly as possible. 2. drop the price of afrezza and start an insulin price war. What does mnkd have to lose at this point? 3. fire every person that isn't contributing to the sales of an afrezza script - every last one of them. When sales pick up and they can afford to hold staff (like hakan or any secretary or anyone not directly involved in product). Please wait till after the holidays. Cut costs to the bone. All remaining employees take a salary cut. Many have shares so they will be taken care of when mnkd takes off. 4. circle the wagons and find a pile of cash now. Get passed this cash issue for 2017 at least. Sell whatever they have left to sell, make whatever deals with the devil they need to make that hasn't already been made, sell more shares on some other exchange outside the US like they did in isreal last year. Restructure the company if they have to and bring in fresh capital. It'll kill existing shareholders but at least afrezza will survive to fight another day. 5. And lastly, why in heck is matt not on every business or other styled talk show he can get his butt on talking up his product? It's done all the time. When EXAS, as an example, finally got FDA approval a company rep (believe it was the CEO but not positive) was on CNBC touting it's product. What was hakan doing after FDA approval? Not on CNBC that's for sure.
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