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Post by promann on Dec 11, 2016 7:34:13 GMT -5
Many are wondering if in the last few weeks if the shorts have been covering.
I would like to share some thoughts and would also like to hear yours. First I think there may be some shorts that are covering but very few I think there are more shares being sold short then shorts covering here is why.
A. The last reported short interest has rose when the share price was at the all time lows so if they are willing to risk at them lows then they are are certainly willing to now at our slight increase.
B. Interest rate on lending shares has recently this week gone up indicating a higher interest to borrow shares.
C. Brokers are sending emails and calling share holders this week indicating that shares are getting harder to find to lend.
D. Ask your self this if shorts are covering then why have we not heard of shares being returned to longs? If you have had your shares returned please let us know that would be a great indication of shorts covering.
That's all I have for now but I would like to close by saying the shorts are taking a huge risk because once MNKD starts getting great traction or some surprise news or multiple good news at once this stock is going to take off and never look back and then the shorts margin calls kick in and look out the stampede for the doors begins.
GLTATL
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Post by matt on Dec 11, 2016 8:21:30 GMT -5
You can certainly make money on a declining stock price by shorting, but you can do the same thing by constructing a portfolio of synthetic securities that give the same economic payoff without borrowing shares. Depending on the size of the position, the borrow cost, and other factors it may be more advantageous to play with synthetics than actually finding shares to borrow, so if you are looking at the reported short position you are only looking at one part of the story. A properly structured synthetic pays off exactly like a short sale, to the fraction of a penny, and has all the risks and benefits of an actual short sale; only the transaction process and fees are different.
However, I agree with your thesis that if shorts were willing to play the game in the 40 cent range they should be even more willing to play in the 60 cent range. Some good things happened in the past month or so that will extend the runway by around six months, but the underlying bet that the company will not generate enough scripts to remain in business has not changed much. If a short has manageable borrow costs and some patience, they have no reason to cover unless and until the trend line om script growth starts to move. Those without patience might have covered, those who have it will hang in there a while longer.
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Post by cjm18 on Dec 11, 2016 9:31:12 GMT -5
Matt hit the nail on the head. Shorts don't fear a margin call now. They aren't afraid of news or script growth right now. Mike on the conference call implied no new reps until after the holidays. Even then. He said it takes months for them to get have an impact.
Looking at the recent short data. Mnkd has now been heavily shorted twice once the stock reached the 60s. Stock price dropped both times after that. It was moderately shorted Friday. So almost 3 times now. Shorts are smart.
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 11, 2016 9:59:03 GMT -5
Dec. 8 at 6:54 AM NatesNotes
@sklem fwiw, I wouldn't look for a squeeze until after the 2nd (or perhaps even 3rd?) double in $MNKD... early covering will be more orderly
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Post by steelers on Dec 11, 2016 11:21:55 GMT -5
Hello everyone. want to say that i am a longtime shareholder in vegas. i met mr mann several times over lunch and dinner starting in 2010. i decided this would be where i invest the riskiest part of my portfolio and have been through the saga since then. first want to say thank you as i have appreciated everyone's efforts and contributions to this board which i have been following for 2 years now. i hold my shares at ubs. my fin manager finally convinced me to loan my shares out and earn something since i had to endure so much and never sold a share. about a year and a half ago i lent out 170k of my shares (the amount they requested) at 38%. then about a month before this last cc they get returned. i should have known then the cc was going to be surprising in a positive way. sure enough look what happened. its only 170k shares out of 100 mill+ short but was pretty fortuitous if u want to think that it was just based on all available public info. interest rate had gone down to 15% too so their cost of borrowing was much cheaper too.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2016 12:01:05 GMT -5
My overall view of the short position in the general stock market is that it's something to look at, review, be aware of, and that's about it. I say that's about it, because, if you've done your homework and have staked out a long position, who gives a flying rats butt what the shorts are doing? As an investor that's long it's not what the shorts are or aren't doing, it's what the P&L looks like. It's what the future looks like. It's cash position, clients, corporate structure, and everything else that matters to the success of the company. The short position isn't relevant. It isn't relevant because as the company is successful, the shorts get fried and go away all by themselves. Meanwhile, longs are laughing all the way to the bank. Again, who cares what the shorts are doing or what interest rates are currently being applied? They aren't afraid, they aren't cowering in some corner when it comes to mnkd because mnkd has no revenues to speak of from sales of afrezza. Until that changes, the shorts have taken the correct position and the longs are the ones biting their nails. That's been the case for how many years now? Exactly. With the stock price at sub a buck, exactly who is staring into the abyss and who has the sun shining on their face? So no, the shorts aren't the problem here or on any stock, imo. The issue is sales, not the short position.
Make no mistake, mnkd continues to be on the edge of insolvency. If you can't see that, you're living in a bubble.
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Post by brotherm1 on Dec 11, 2016 17:23:04 GMT -5
"Make no mistake, mnkd continues to be on the edge of insolvency. If you can't see that, you're living in a bubble."
Make no mistake, no guts no glory. And things that live under rocks are gutless.
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 11, 2016 18:12:34 GMT -5
"Make no mistake, mnkd continues to be on the edge of insolvency. If you can't see that, you're living in a bubble." Make no mistake, no guts no glory. And things that live under rocks are gutless. It was a good post until the last part. Clearly all us longs know the story. So it was either meant to be insulting, or meant for the new people on the board? What is amazing is how much time the shorts put into this. Here and ST and Twitter. Nate says he's never seen with any other stock so much baloney being thrown out there. Truth wins. It's just does. It's up to Matt to keep increasing our run way. He's done well and I believe will keep it up until we get some traction. Mike is clearly doing all he can. Along with many others. We have a great team and all of us longs are apart of that team. This stock is going to turn around, it already is headed up. There will be a time when we start to move and it will be a blast for all of us that have stuck together! Merry Christmas all:-)) |
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Post by kc on Dec 11, 2016 19:26:37 GMT -5
Like sports many of us have invested a lot of time and a lot of money. Heart and soul. I do believe we will win one day shortly.
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Post by promann on Dec 12, 2016 0:27:10 GMT -5
Hello everyone. want to say that i am a longtime shareholder in vegas. i met mr mann several times over lunch and dinner starting in 2010. i decided this would be where i invest the riskiest part of my portfolio and have been through the saga since then. first want to say thank you as i have appreciated everyone's efforts and contributions to this board which i have been following for 2 years now. i hold my shares at ubs. my fin manager finally convinced me to loan my shares out and earn something since i had to endure so much and never sold a share. about a year and a half ago i lent out 170k of my shares (the amount they requested) at 38%. then about a month before this last cc they get returned. i should have known then the cc was going to be surprising in a positive way. sure enough look what happened. its only 170k shares out of 100 mill+ short but was pretty fortuitous if u want to think that it was just based on all available public info. interest rate had gone down to 15% too so their cost of borrowing was much cheaper too. Thank you for your response.. You are the first I've heard about that had your loaned shares returned. I'm very surprised because they are begging me to loan my shares but I refuse to lend them all. I have already been loaning about 50k shares but the rest of my holdings I prefer to be available to trade at a moments notice so I'm not lending them shares out. Al Mann was a great man thank you for sharing your story maybe you can say more of what he had to say while you dined with him I would find anything to do with MNKD very interesting |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2016 14:05:01 GMT -5
"Make no mistake, mnkd continues to be on the edge of insolvency. If you can't see that, you're living in a bubble." Make no mistake, no guts no glory. And things that live under rocks are gutless. It was a good post until the last part. Clearly all us longs know the story. So it was either meant to be insulting, or meant for the new people on the board? What is amazing is how much time the shorts put into this. Here and ST and Twitter. Nate says he's never seen with any other stock so much baloney being thrown out there. Truth wins. It's just does. It's up to Matt to keep increasing our run way. He's done well and I believe will keep it up until we get some traction. Mike is clearly doing all he can. Along with many others. We have a great team and all of us longs are apart of that team. This stock is going to turn around, it already is headed up. There will be a time when we start to move and it will be a blast for all of us that have stuck together! Merry Christmas all:-)) (warning - if you're looking for blind optimism, move on and no need to read my post.) lol....I guess I must be a short - again. No insult intended but I don't flower up my posts either. It's all my opinion and imo all longs don't know the story or the details from the last 10+ years. Many new folks here who are long aren't aware of the details (beyond how great afrezza is), the history, and the context of where mnkd sits today in the big picture. Others are just investing novices hoping to find the pot of gold. Nate is not relevant. Neither is spencer or AF or me or you when it comes to mnkd and sales of afrezza and insurance coverage and endo perspectives and diabetics who live with this disease every day. We can say and do all we want as investors but its not going to move the needle. Social media is wonderful but over two years now, how much impact has tweeting had on script counts? What's relevant is mnkd management, afrezza sales, cash position, and how long mnkd can last at this pace. That's the truth. IMO, matt hasn't done well. Frankly, other than keeping the lights on, his efforts haven't produced fruit yet at all. To spend billions over 10 plus years and only yield in the low double digit millions in revs does not make a successful venture. Investors are not part of the management team and any seasoned investor knows this all too well. As an investor you have the right to lose all your money or ride the wave to greatness. You are an investor (I'm assuming you are holding shares long) and to think you have any other role in mnkd's success is that bubble thing I mentioned. I'd hate to see a newbie come on board here and read the fantasy that's posted daily as fact or actual points of hope for mnkd. The best xmas gift I can think of is to help new investors to avoid mnkd till things turn around, not encourage them to go long on mnkd at this stage. There's no boat to miss here. If mnkd pops to five, investors haven't "missed" anything because if mnkd does take off, 5 bucks a share is a pittance for what they will be worth longer term. No need to risk hard earned money at these levels and for the longs that are underwater, why fool new investors down that rabbit hole with you? Many posts here make connections that don't exists, theorize on how big money is just under the covers, or how there's some big pharma just dying to get their hands on mnkd or how some evil group is out there keeping mnkd down for their own benefit. It's a lack of sales that's killing mnkd, not the shorts. Shorts don't make the blood, they simply smell it and come running. Longs do the same thing just a different side of the trade. And brotherm1, risk assessment isn't living under a rock. I'm glad you take a no guts no glory approach with your money. If that works for you - wonderful. Some others, like myself, prefer a different approach. IMO, guts and glory have nothing to do with it. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Dec 12, 2016 14:48:50 GMT -5
"There's no boat to miss here. If mnkd pops to five, investors haven't "missed" anything because if mnkd does take off, 5 bucks a share is a pittance for what they will be worth longer term."
Yes, it does appear you like to take a different approach as you've said. Some though prefer to buy low. When you're buying at $5, I might be selling. I suppose if you live long enough you could still make over 800% if you live long enough (and that 800% at $5.00 for the same amount of shares will cost you 800% more money than what it would cost you now). With your approach, you might want to jump onto the IBM or other stalwart bandwagon.
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Dec 12, 2016 14:50:08 GMT -5
It was a good post until the last part. Clearly all us longs know the story. So it was either meant to be insulting, or meant for the new people on the board? What is amazing is how much time the shorts put into this. Here and ST and Twitter. Nate says he's never seen with any other stock so much baloney being thrown out there. Truth wins. It's just does. It's up to Matt to keep increasing our run way. He's done well and I believe will keep it up until we get some traction. Mike is clearly doing all he can. Along with many others. We have a great team and all of us longs are apart of that team. This stock is going to turn around, it already is headed up. There will be a time when we start to move and it will be a blast for all of us that have stuck together! Merry Christmas all:-)) (warning - if you're looking for blind optimism, move on and no need to read my post.) lol....I guess I must be a short - again. No insult intended but I don't flower up my posts either. It's all my opinion and imo all longs don't know the story or the details from the last 10+ years. Many new folks here who are long aren't aware of the details (beyond how great afrezza is), the history, and the context of where mnkd sits today in the big picture. Others are just investing novices hoping to find the pot of gold. Nate is not relevant. Neither is spencer or AF or me or you when it comes to mnkd and sales of afrezza and insurance coverage and endo perspectives and diabetics who live with this disease every day. We can say and do all we want as investors but its not going to move the needle. Social media is wonderful but over two years now, how much impact has tweeting had on script counts? What's relevant is mnkd management, afrezza sales, cash position, and how long mnkd can last at this pace. That's the truth. IMO, matt hasn't done well. Frankly, other than keeping the lights on, his efforts haven't produced fruit yet at all. To spend billions over 10 plus years and only yield in the low double digit millions in revs does not make a successful venture. Investors are not part of the management team and any seasoned investor knows this all too well. As an investor you have the right to lose all your money or ride the wave to greatness. You are an investor (I'm assuming you are holding shares long) and to think you have any other role in mnkd's success is that bubble thing I mentioned. I'd hate to see a newbie come on board here and read the fantasy that's posted daily as fact or actual points of hope for mnkd. The best xmas gift I can think of is to help new investors to avoid mnkd till things turn around, not encourage them to go long on mnkd at this stage. There's no boat to miss here. If mnkd pops to five, investors haven't "missed" anything because if mnkd does take off, 5 bucks a share is a pittance for what they will be worth longer term. No need to risk hard earned money at these levels and for the longs that are underwater, why fool new investors down that rabbit hole with you? Many posts here make connections that don't exists, theorize on how big money is just under the covers, or how there's some big pharma just dying to get their hands on mnkd or how some evil group is out there keeping mnkd down for their own benefit. It's a lack of sales that's killing mnkd, not the shorts. Shorts don't make the blood, they simply smell it and come running. Longs do the same thing just a different side of the trade. And brotherm1 , risk assessment isn't living under a rock. I'm glad you take a no guts no glory approach with your money. If that works for you - wonderful. Some others, like myself, prefer a different approach. IMO, guts and glory have nothing to do with it. davinci, you can analyse and express your thoughts all you want. But those who have made up their minds don't care to read the facts and face reality. You'll be called a short, a FUDster and all kind of ridiculous labels. But I know you don't really care what you're referred to as. You mentioned the issue with sales. Initially we were told there were 70 reps, then that number was dropped to 60, then it was dropped to 42 temps basically hired straight from mall booths that sell cell phone covers and dead-sea facial salt. Do you have exact numbers of how many actual reps they had? Why did it take them 6 months of failure before they decided to hire legal sales reps planned for Jan 2017? |
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Post by madog365 on Dec 12, 2016 15:07:16 GMT -5
It was a good post until the last part. Clearly all us longs know the story. So it was either meant to be insulting, or meant for the new people on the board? What is amazing is how much time the shorts put into this. Here and ST and Twitter. Nate says he's never seen with any other stock so much baloney being thrown out there. Truth wins. It's just does. It's up to Matt to keep increasing our run way. He's done well and I believe will keep it up until we get some traction. Mike is clearly doing all he can. Along with many others. We have a great team and all of us longs are apart of that team. This stock is going to turn around, it already is headed up. There will be a time when we start to move and it will be a blast for all of us that have stuck together! Merry Christmas all:-)) (warning - if you're looking for blind optimism, move on and no need to read my post.) lol....I guess I must be a short - again. No insult intended but I don't flower up my posts either. It's all my opinion and imo all longs don't know the story or the details from the last 10+ years. Many new folks here who are long aren't aware of the details (beyond how great afrezza is), the history, and the context of where mnkd sits today in the big picture. Others are just investing novices hoping to find the pot of gold. Nate is not relevant. Neither is spencer or AF or me or you when it comes to mnkd and sales of afrezza and insurance coverage and endo perspectives and diabetics who live with this disease every day. We can say and do all we want as investors but its not going to move the needle. Social media is wonderful but over two years now, how much impact has tweeting had on script counts? What's relevant is mnkd management, afrezza sales, cash position, and how long mnkd can last at this pace. That's the truth. IMO, matt hasn't done well. Frankly, other than keeping the lights on, his efforts haven't produced fruit yet at all. To spend billions over 10 plus years and only yield in the low double digit millions in revs does not make a successful venture. Investors are not part of the management team and any seasoned investor knows this all too well. As an investor you have the right to lose all your money or ride the wave to greatness. You are an investor (I'm assuming you are holding shares long) and to think you have any other role in mnkd's success is that bubble thing I mentioned. I'd hate to see a newbie come on board here and read the fantasy that's posted daily as fact or actual points of hope for mnkd. The best xmas gift I can think of is to help new investors to avoid mnkd till things turn around, not encourage them to go long on mnkd at this stage. There's no boat to miss here. If mnkd pops to five, investors haven't "missed" anything because if mnkd does take off, 5 bucks a share is a pittance for what they will be worth longer term. No need to risk hard earned money at these levels and for the longs that are underwater, why fool new investors down that rabbit hole with you? Many posts here make connections that don't exists, theorize on how big money is just under the covers, or how there's some big pharma just dying to get their hands on mnkd or how some evil group is out there keeping mnkd down for their own benefit. It's a lack of sales that's killing mnkd, not the shorts. Shorts don't make the blood, they simply smell it and come running. Longs do the same thing just a different side of the trade. And brotherm1 , risk assessment isn't living under a rock. I'm glad you take a no guts no glory approach with your money. If that works for you - wonderful. Some others, like myself, prefer a different approach. IMO, guts and glory have nothing to do with it. I'll only say this. It's tough to take your advice seriously when you quote a seeking alpha blogger among Voltaire and Socrates in your signature. I used the term blogger instead of analyst because some real analysts may get offended. |
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Post by dictatorsaurus on Dec 12, 2016 15:12:48 GMT -5
(warning - if you're looking for blind optimism, move on and no need to read my post.) lol....I guess I must be a short - again. No insult intended but I don't flower up my posts either. It's all my opinion and imo all longs don't know the story or the details from the last 10+ years. Many new folks here who are long aren't aware of the details (beyond how great afrezza is), the history, and the context of where mnkd sits today in the big picture. Others are just investing novices hoping to find the pot of gold. Nate is not relevant. Neither is spencer or AF or me or you when it comes to mnkd and sales of afrezza and insurance coverage and endo perspectives and diabetics who live with this disease every day. We can say and do all we want as investors but its not going to move the needle. Social media is wonderful but over two years now, how much impact has tweeting had on script counts? What's relevant is mnkd management, afrezza sales, cash position, and how long mnkd can last at this pace. That's the truth. IMO, matt hasn't done well. Frankly, other than keeping the lights on, his efforts haven't produced fruit yet at all. To spend billions over 10 plus years and only yield in the low double digit millions in revs does not make a successful venture. Investors are not part of the management team and any seasoned investor knows this all too well. As an investor you have the right to lose all your money or ride the wave to greatness. You are an investor (I'm assuming you are holding shares long) and to think you have any other role in mnkd's success is that bubble thing I mentioned. I'd hate to see a newbie come on board here and read the fantasy that's posted daily as fact or actual points of hope for mnkd. The best xmas gift I can think of is to help new investors to avoid mnkd till things turn around, not encourage them to go long on mnkd at this stage. There's no boat to miss here. If mnkd pops to five, investors haven't "missed" anything because if mnkd does take off, 5 bucks a share is a pittance for what they will be worth longer term. No need to risk hard earned money at these levels and for the longs that are underwater, why fool new investors down that rabbit hole with you? Many posts here make connections that don't exists, theorize on how big money is just under the covers, or how there's some big pharma just dying to get their hands on mnkd or how some evil group is out there keeping mnkd down for their own benefit. It's a lack of sales that's killing mnkd, not the shorts. Shorts don't make the blood, they simply smell it and come running. Longs do the same thing just a different side of the trade. And brotherm1 , risk assessment isn't living under a rock. I'm glad you take a no guts no glory approach with your money. If that works for you - wonderful. Some others, like myself, prefer a different approach. IMO, guts and glory have nothing to do with it. I'll only say this. It's tough to take your advice seriously when you quote a seeking alpha blogger among Voltaire and Socrates in your signature. I used the term blogger instead of analyst because some real analysts may get offended. Considering what he said is all true it would be foolish not to take him seriously. We are still a penny stock with no end in sight. Fun, eh? |
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