|
Post by kbrion77 on Jan 3, 2017 13:59:14 GMT -5
I agree with this. Not only were expectations not tamped down, but if memory serves me (and it does not always), management actually mentioned RLS milestone within the context of cash flow. $1M is borderline immaterial. By mentioning it within the context of funding MNKD, I think a reasonable investor would be led to assume it would be more than $1M. No... I am NOT suggesting some sort of law suit over this... but I am a bit disappointed. Caveat... maybe my own wishful thinking made me think I heard management associate this milestone with extending our cash runway. I think this nails it. I don't think anyone expected it to be this low and MNKD certainly didn't do anything to set realistic goals to what the payment would be. Matt could have said "We are expecting a SMALL milestone payment..." and it would have better prepared people for what occurred. A part of me also believes that MNKD wouldn't have recieved anything at all unless some behind the scenes negotiating had taken place. The CEO made public statements indicating that a milestone was coming in 2016 and you see $1 million on the last business day of the year? To me, it seems to be bare minimum of what had to be done legally to avoid a lawsuit and save face. Immaterial in the grand scheme of things but material in that it keeps the CEO from lying to investors. My expectations for what information RLS provides the public during it's big "reveal" are substantially lower now. So are my expectations for what benefit the relationship will provide MNKD.... They should have been substantial low to begin with. Again MNKD signed deals with Tolero and Colby for bigger $$$ and 4 years later nothing. In all of 2016 these are the only times Matt mentioned RLS: Q1-16 Transcript: Also in the first quarter we completed our first licensing of the Technosphere platform to Receptor Life Sciences and we recognize that 250,000 signing fee, payment from them in our first quarter financial results. This first program milestone payment from [indiscernible] is expected in the fourth quarter as we complete initial product development milestones.Q3-16 Transcript: We also continue to make progress in our receptor life sciences collaboration and we’ll achieve certain predetermined tactical objectives later this month.So I guess i'm asking everyone how or what made their expectations so big with Receptor? Maybe the 61 pages of lunacy in another thread?
|
|
|
Post by sophie on Jan 3, 2017 14:00:04 GMT -5
I don't think there is one. Sales aren't going to be picking up anytime soon from the looks of things and RLS was immaterial. Reverse split will be coming, my guess next month. We'll likely see the proxy notification pretty soon. R/S will also likely be a double whammy as they will also probably dilute immediately with the higher share price. I also feel dilution and R/S is coming. I felt during the last call that Matt was hopeful the updates from the CC would push the price over $1. But that didn't happen. And at least we can now interpret the cryptic message from MC. He wanted to give us something and well wishes were all they could afford.
|
|
|
Post by nylefty on Jan 3, 2017 14:00:42 GMT -5
"We now know from recent conference event posted that RLS is developing medical marijuana, in an industry expected to explode to 100 Billion. Mannkind is set to benefit with royalty payments in the vicinity of 10%." Is there a link or a thread that describes what RLS presented? Thanks. Conference hasn't happened yet. 2017 Emerald Conference
The biggest and best conference in the cannabis industry devoted to the exploration and discussion of the Science of Cannabis, including Analytical Testing, R&D, Clinical Applications, Inter-Lab Comparison and Proficiency Testing, State Regulations, Industry Standardization, and more.
www.theemeraldconference.com/#about
Speaking Friday, February 3rd:
2:00-2:30 Andrea Leone-Bay, Ph.D., Chief Scientific Officer at Receptor Life Sciences
www.theemeraldconference.com/schedule2017/#1482291526141-bd5031c1-ab8b
|
|
|
Post by cjc04 on Jan 3, 2017 14:10:58 GMT -5
So MNKD received settlement from SNY, milestone from RLS. What other catalyst will get this above a buck for 10 days? Unless they have an ace in their pocket (imo history has shown this is not likely) I dont see how a Reverse split is not coming. I don't think there is one. Sales aren't going to be picking up anytime soon from the looks of things and RLS was immaterial. Reverse split will be coming, my guess next month. We'll likely see the proxy notification pretty soon. R/S will also likely be a double whammy as they will also probably dilute immediately with the higher share price. it makes no difference if they dilute now, or after a r/s with a higher sp. The amount of funds raised is the same.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Jan 3, 2017 14:11:22 GMT -5
I think this nails it. I don't think anyone expected it to be this low and MNKD certainly didn't do anything to set realistic goals to what the payment would be. Matt could have said "We are expecting a SMALL milestone payment..." and it would have better prepared people for what occurred. A part of me also believes that MNKD wouldn't have recieved anything at all unless some behind the scenes negotiating had taken place. The CEO made public statements indicating that a milestone was coming in 2016 and you see $1 million on the last business day of the year? To me, it seems to be bare minimum of what had to be done legally to avoid a lawsuit and save face. Immaterial in the grand scheme of things but material in that it keeps the CEO from lying to investors. My expectations for what information RLS provides the public during it's big "reveal" are substantially lower now. So are my expectations for what benefit the relationship will provide MNKD.... They should have been substantial low to begin with. Again MNKD signed deals with Tolero and Colby for bigger $$$ and 4 years later nothing. In all of 2016 these are the only times Matt mentioned RLS: Q1-16 Transcript: Also in the first quarter we completed our first licensing of the Technosphere platform to Receptor Life Sciences and we recognize that 250,000 signing fee, payment from them in our first quarter financial results. This first program milestone payment from [indiscernible] is expected in the fourth quarter as we complete initial product development milestones.Q3-16 Transcript: We also continue to make progress in our receptor life sciences collaboration and we’ll achieve certain predetermined tactical objectives later this month.So I guess i'm asking everyone how or what made their expectations so big with Receptor? Maybe the 61 pages of lunacy in another thread? You are correct (IMO) about the 61 pages of lunacy and the talk about billions from RLS. Still, there was also this influencing expectations: FAQ: MannKind Investor Call, February 3, 2016: www.mannkindcorp.com/Collateral/Documents/English-US/MNKD%202%203%2016%20Investor%20Call%20FAQ%20v2%209%2016%20FINAL.pdfFifth page says $102.5 million in milestone payments with RLS, first payment possible in 2016. I doubt many reading that expected the first milestone payment would be as low as it was.
|
|
|
Post by madog365 on Jan 3, 2017 14:27:59 GMT -5
The fact that a payment was made is good news upon itself (not to mentioned exactly with timetable shareholders were given in Q1 of 2016). The bashers are of course going to focus on the amount of the payment as expected.
You can look up the stats yourself. Majority of biotech development collaborations with milestone payment never materialize to anything. Anecdotally you can look at Mannkind's previous deals which 5 or more years later haven't amounted to anything besides a few mango posts. This is a deal that is making progress towards a total milestone amount of over 100M - I assume after an FDA approval, as well as what i consider the more important piece to future value which is royalty payments.
Again there is no cost to Mannkind. Receptor is paying all R+D costs. No way to spin this negatively. Sorry.
|
|
|
Post by silentknight on Jan 3, 2017 14:34:24 GMT -5
The fact that a payment was made is good news upon itself (not to mentioned exactly with timetable shareholders were given in Q1 of 2016). The bashers are of course going to focus on the amount of the payment as expected. You can look up the stats yourself. Majority of biotech development collaborations with milestone payment never materialize to anything. Anecdotally you can look at Mannkind's previous deals which 5 or more years later haven't amounted to anything besides a few mango posts. This is a deal that is making progress towards a total milestone amount of over 100M - I assume after an FDA approval, as well as what i consider the more important piece to future value which is royalty payments. Again there is no cost to Mannkind. Receptor is paying all R+D costs. No way to spin this negatively. Sorry. That's funny.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2017 14:50:50 GMT -5
The only hope is to start selling a lot more Afrezza. We need to see an uptick in NRx in the next 4-6 weeks with corresponding uptick in TRx 4-6 weeks after to show patients are refilling their Rx. Without this, MNKD is dead. Everything else is a non-issue. A strong uptick in Rx would demonstrate that the company has the right strategy and is making progress. Perhaps not to break even but with enough progress, SP goes up and getting investment capital at a reasonable cost becomes realistic.
If a RS is done and Afrezza sales do not pick up, how long will it take before the shorts unload on MNKD and drive SP down again - not long. 10 / 1 RS would have SP around $6 / share. Anyone seriously think that without an uptick in prescriptions a RS share price of $6 would hold for a few weeks at best and more likely a few days maybe?
|
|
|
Post by kbrion77 on Jan 3, 2017 14:51:03 GMT -5
The fact that a payment was made is good news upon itself (not to mentioned exactly with timetable shareholders were given in Q1 of 2016). The bashers are of course going to focus on the amount of the payment as expected. You can look up the stats yourself. Majority of biotech development collaborations with milestone payment never materialize to anything. Anecdotally you can look at Mannkind's previous deals which 5 or more years later haven't amounted to anything besides a few mango posts. This is a deal that is making progress towards a total milestone amount of over 100M - I assume after an FDA approval, as well as what i consider the more important piece to future value which is royalty payments. Again there is no cost to Mannkind. Receptor is paying all R+D costs. No way to spin this negatively. Sorry. That's where my head starts spinning because most bashing are the biggest supporters of the company on here! Nobody even knows how RLS expects to finance any of their operations yet some were expecting $10MM or more in a developmental milestone, just be happy the check cashed right now.
|
|
|
Post by cjc04 on Jan 3, 2017 15:01:55 GMT -5
The fact that a payment was made is good news upon itself (not to mentioned exactly with timetable shareholders were given in Q1 of 2016). The bashers are of course going to focus on the amount of the payment as expected. You can look up the stats yourself. Majority of biotech development collaborations with milestone payment never materialize to anything. Anecdotally you can look at Mannkind's previous deals which 5 or more years later haven't amounted to anything besides a few mango posts. This is a deal that is making progress towards a total milestone amount of over 100M - I assume after an FDA approval, as well as what i consider the more important piece to future value which is royalty payments. Again there is no cost to Mannkind. Receptor is paying all R+D costs. No way to spin this negatively. Sorry. [ Well said, I have to admit I'm still disappointed in the amount though, only because I thought it would be meaningful enough to help fund operations. I'm dying to know what other developments Matt has that will fend off delisting while not doing a r/s, this isn't going to get it done.
|
|
|
Post by silentknight on Jan 3, 2017 15:26:30 GMT -5
The fact that a payment was made is good news upon itself (not to mentioned exactly with timetable shareholders were given in Q1 of 2016). The bashers are of course going to focus on the amount of the payment as expected. You can look up the stats yourself. Majority of biotech development collaborations with milestone payment never materialize to anything. Anecdotally you can look at Mannkind's previous deals which 5 or more years later haven't amounted to anything besides a few mango posts. This is a deal that is making progress towards a total milestone amount of over 100M - I assume after an FDA approval, as well as what i consider the more important piece to future value which is royalty payments. Again there is no cost to Mannkind. Receptor is paying all R+D costs. No way to spin this negatively. Sorry. [ Well said, I have to admit I'm still disappointed in the amount though, only because I thought it would be meaningful enough to help fund operations. I'm dying to know what other developments Matt has that will fend off delisting while not doing a r/s, this isn't going to get it done. I'm not convinced anything is going to push this stock over $1, without a R/S mind you, aside from selling Afrezza. Epi could be approved today and I don't think it would matter. The street has no confidence in MNKD being able to sell their products, so what good is another one if they can't sell it? Delisting window closes in March by my math. Does anyone really believe we're going to see sales substantial enough to push us over $1 by then? Based on what I've seen thus far, I do not.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 3, 2017 15:35:02 GMT -5
"We now know from recent conference event posted that RLS is developing medical marijuana, in an industry expected to explode to 100 Billion. Mannkind is set to benefit with royalty payments in the vicinity of 10%." Is there a link or a thread that describes what RLS presented? Thanks. MEDICAL marijuana expected to be 100B or legalized recreational pot? Big difference.
|
|
|
Post by dictatorsaurus on Jan 3, 2017 15:44:07 GMT -5
I don't. The new hires are supposed to be on-board and starting soon. But there are still many job postings so who knows what's going on. According to Mike it should take from 3 to 6 months before a rep can make an impact on scripts. But then again, how many disappointments have they delivered so far.
|
|
|
Post by matt on Jan 3, 2017 15:45:54 GMT -5
This is how the licensing game is played. The milestones start out very low (as do the royalties) and the larger payments don't happen until there are global commercial sales in excess of some large number like $1 billion. Face it, most drugs never even get to commercial sales and those that do never get to ten digit global sales numbers.
It makes for a nice press release to say that the company will receive royalties up to the mid-double digits and total milestones of $XXX million, but if the company doesn't disclose the specific milestones and sales thresholds that trigger the payments then you need to be realistic about whether the figures are realistically achievable. At this point we don't know where RLS gets its funding, what the product in development is, the triggers for the milestones, or the royalty table. Take the $1 million and be happy; few licensing deals of this size on purely developmental drugs pay more so early in the process.
|
|
|
Post by alethea on Jan 3, 2017 15:48:11 GMT -5
[ Well said, I have to admit I'm still disappointed in the amount though, only because I thought it would be meaningful enough to help fund operations. I'm dying to know what other developments Matt has that will fend off delisting while not doing a r/s, this isn't going to get it done. I'm not convinced anything is going to push this stock over $1, without a R/S mind you, aside from selling Afrezza. Epi could be approved today and I don't think it would matter. The street has no confidence in MNKD being able to sell their products, so what good is another one if they can't sell it? Delisting window closes in March by my math. Does anyone really believe we're going to see sales substantial enough to push us over $1 by then? Based on what I've seen thus far, I do not. No.
I'm betting on something significant like a big equity investor, partner, outside U.S. transaction, capital infusion by the Mann Group, etc. etc. Without some white swan-type event, MNKD does not have an ice cube's chance in hell of funding itself thru increased sales. No way, no how. BUT, I'm holding on Hoping for such an event. Unfortunately the milestone was one of the things I was hoping for. Deeply disappointed in the measly one million dollar amount.
|
|