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Post by kbrion77 on Jan 3, 2017 15:48:25 GMT -5
The only hope is to start selling a lot more Afrezza. We need to see an uptick in NRx in the next 4-6 weeks with corresponding uptick in TRx 4-6 weeks after to show patients are refilling their Rx. Without this, MNKD is dead. Everything else is a non-issue. A strong uptick in Rx would demonstrate that the company has the right strategy and is making progress. Perhaps not to break even but with enough progress, SP goes up and getting investment capital at a reasonable cost becomes realistic. If a RS is done and Afrezza sales do not pick up, how long will it take before the shorts unload on MNKD and drive SP down again - not long. 10 / 1 RS would have SP around $6 / share. Anyone seriously think that without an uptick in prescriptions a RS share price of $6 would hold for a few weeks at best and more likely a few days maybe? The big boy shorts or the ones that are hell bent that MNKD will go bankrupt will short this stock at any price. R/S to $6 would probably take 3 days to short back down under $1, hell a R/S to $20 I bet it would take less than 2 weeks to be back under $1. Personally I am out if they ever announce a R/S.
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Post by matt on Jan 3, 2017 16:02:10 GMT -5
The problem is not just the delisting deadline. The company has to be in compliance ten days before the deadline, which if my math is correct means that the PPS must be at or above $1 at the close on March 6 in order to have ten trading days above $1 accumulated by March 17 (the ultimate deadline). However, consider the alternative which is a reverse split. That requires notification to the brokers to reduce the share count, and that requires shareholder approval, and that requires a special meeting, and that requires a proxy, and that requires 21 day advance mailing, and that requires a prior SEC review of the disclosure documents. Thirty days is a barely manageable schedule complete all the required steps, so really we are talking end of this month for a decision on the reverse merger. Nobody likes a reverse merger, it is not good for the share price, but if Matt lets the clock run past the end of January then the possibility of a reverse merger is going to be off the table due to timing, and a second delisting extension is off the table due to lack of compliance with initial listing shareholder equity requirement. The company can't play chicken on this one. Either there is material news ready and waiting that will push the price above $1 in the next few weeks, or Matt has to be getting ready to call the special meeting. Bumping to the OTC would kill the company.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 3, 2017 16:08:51 GMT -5
Matt are you talking about reverse merger or reverse split?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2017 16:11:26 GMT -5
The problem is not just the delisting deadline. The company has to be in compliance ten days before the deadline, which if my math is correct means that the PPS must be at or above $1 at the close on March 6 in order to have ten trading days above $1 accumulated by March 17 (the ultimate deadline). However, consider the alternative which is a reverse split. That requires notification to the brokers to reduce the share count, and that requires shareholder approval, and that requires a special meeting, and that requires a proxy, and that requires 21 day advance mailing, and that requires a prior SEC review of the disclosure documents. Thirty days is a barely manageable schedule complete all the required steps, so really we are talking end of this month for a decision on the reverse merger. Nobody likes a reverse merger, it is not good for the share price, but if Matt lets the clock run past the end of January then the possibility of a reverse merger is going to be off the table due to timing, and a second delisting extension is off the table due to lack of compliance with initial listing shareholder equity requirement. The company can't play chicken on this one. Either there is material news ready and waiting that will push the price above $1 in the next few weeks, or Matt has to be getting ready to call the special meeting. Bumping to the OTC would kill the company. Do we know if Mannkind has hired any sales people as Mannkind employees who were not working for Mannkind as Publicis employees? I would think the only way a new salesperson would join Mannkind is if they had some type of assurances about the company as a going concern. Hiring a new employee and then filing a few weeks or even a few months after would be pretty unethical in my book. Any information about something like this happening could be a proxy for something good happening. Other than this or Afrezza revenue starting to climb rapidly, I think there is not much hope.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 3, 2017 16:12:20 GMT -5
Matt, I don't think a reverse split requires all those items; they likely already have the authority to do it, so they just do it.
As far as the milestone, you guys have read it all wrong, you see, I read it as a "meterstone," and that's exactly what we got.
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 3, 2017 16:33:50 GMT -5
I agree with this. Not only were expectations not tamped down, but if memory serves me (and it does not always), management actually mentioned RLS milestone within the context of cash flow. $1M is borderline immaterial. By mentioning it within the context of funding MNKD, I think a reasonable investor would be led to assume it would be more than $1M. No... I am NOT suggesting some sort of law suit over this... but I am a bit disappointed. Caveat... maybe my own wishful thinking made me think I heard management associate this milestone with extending our cash runway. My memory is similar to yours- both in remembering the words that were said as well as the porous nature of it. I like the odds that we're both on the same page if we thought we heard the same thing. If not, the general consensus of the board was that it would be used for cash flow and that was burned into our minds with the repetitive chanting. It's moments like this where I don't care about the events (or lack thereof) but rather to the competency and honesty of management. I may eat my words later, but this all seems like the real life equivalent of clickbait. I really hope that if there is something in the works that we don't know about that they would be more honest about it. It's not like it'll buy them anymore time at this point if there isn't anything there. I hope they're not just interested in keeping the price as high as possible for future financing. I won't want to be on the other side of that and don't want to get caught with my pants down. It's the least they can do for the people who have been faithful to them this long. Care about the patients first and the price will take care of itself. Don't forget about the people who got you here either, boys! "My memory is similar to yours- both in remembering the words that were said as well as the porous nature of it." And what were the words you remembered Sophie?
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Post by therealisaching on Jan 3, 2017 16:43:32 GMT -5
My memory is similar to yours- both in remembering the words that were said as well as the porous nature of it. I like the odds that we're both on the same page if we thought we heard the same thing. If not, the general consensus of the board was that it would be used for cash flow and that was burned into our minds with the repetitive chanting. It's moments like this where I don't care about the events (or lack thereof) but rather to the competency and honesty of management. I may eat my words later, but this all seems like the real life equivalent of clickbait. I really hope that if there is something in the works that we don't know about that they would be more honest about it. It's not like it'll buy them anymore time at this point if there isn't anything there. I hope they're not just interested in keeping the price as high as possible for future financing. I won't want to be on the other side of that and don't want to get caught with my pants down. It's the least they can do for the people who have been faithful to them this long. Care about the patients first and the price will take care of itself. Don't forget about the people who got you here either, boys! "My memory is similar to yours- both in remembering the words that were said as well as the porous nature of it." And what were the words you remembered Sophie? Expectations were tamped down. The last quarterly conference call spelled out in detail & shining lights the funds to be received from sanofi. It covered several slides. Matt didnt discuss RLS in any of the cash flow runway parts of the call.
The only time he mentioned RLS was in closing to say they were on track to meet the technical goals by year end.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 3, 2017 16:57:53 GMT -5
"My memory is similar to yours- both in remembering the words that were said as well as the porous nature of it." And what were the words you remembered Sophie? Expectations were tamped down. The last quarterly conference call spelled out in detail & shining lights the funds to be received from sanofi. It covered several slides. Matt didnt discuss RLS in any of the cash flow runway parts of the call.
The only time he mentioned RLS was in closing to say they were on track to meet the technical goals by year end.
I still think in earlier venue it was mentioned within the context of discussion of cash flow. Granted, I am also sure my own expectations of it were based on wishful thinking... and of course one's wishful thinking can often get amplified/solidified based on discussions here on proboards. I know MNKD management never gave any dollar amount for the milestones, but here I saw some saying it would probably be "only" $10M and some giving figures way higher than that as their wishful thinking. I guess I needed a bit stronger "tamp" than what was offered in the QCC.
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Jan 3, 2017 17:48:16 GMT -5
Even I am disappointed, as I also hoped it would be substantial enough to add to the runway. But, I was also worried that nothing at all would materialize. So, as mentioned by others, I also agree that we should be happy that RLS made a payment, showing that they in fact are real and they are making progress, and will one day become profitable and make much larger payments to MNKD. Regarding it happening on 12/30, that is just standard business practice of good financial management for RLS. Anyway, right now, the focus needs to be on Afrezza, not RLS, or the prospects of an investment, BO, or sale of some portion of the MNKD patent licenses. For example, since RLS is thought to have such big bucks behind them, they would probably be willing to buyout the TS licensing upfront from MNKD to get 100% of their future profits (like the benefit we got from dropping SNY). THAT! could be MNKD's saviour by extending their runway for a year or more.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Jan 3, 2017 17:55:11 GMT -5
At the burn rate of $10 million a month this should cover business expenses for 3 days. So basically $1 million will be depleted by the end of business day tomorrow. And that means?
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Jan 3, 2017 18:05:32 GMT -5
At the burn rate of $10 million a month this should cover business expenses for 3 days. So basically $1 million will be depleted by the end of business day tomorrow. How about the fact that RLS making progress and it is getting this much closer to market being great and great news for MNKD. Well, 'making progress' is a vague term and everyone wants to see sales or real new short-term business opportunity in a significant market. I always found the MLS payment irrelevant in its size as it wasn't realistic that it would have an effect on the runway, whether 1m 5m or 10m. I hope that RLS would give more information about their business. That would have really helped the share price and my Jan17 options. But RLS remains in the dark. At least we know that they could get 1m in cash.
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 3, 2017 18:19:46 GMT -5
The problem is not just the delisting deadline. The company has to be in compliance ten days before the deadline, which if my math is correct means that the PPS must be at or above $1 at the close on March 6 in order to have ten trading days above $1 accumulated by March 17 (the ultimate deadline). Not a big deal, but I read elsewhere that if it closes above $1 even a day before the 'ultimate' deadline that the NASDAQ would allow the streak to continue and accept it if it lasts as long as ten trading days.
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 3, 2017 18:21:55 GMT -5
As far as the milestone, you guys have read it all wrong, you see, I read it as a "meterstone," and that's exactly what we got. Is a meterstone the same as / similar to a millstone?
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 3, 2017 18:23:07 GMT -5
Nobody even knows how RLS expects to finance any of their operations yet some were expecting $10MM or more in a developmental milestone, just be happy the check cashed right now. Do we have positive confirmation about the check clearing? Just something else to fret over.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 3, 2017 18:23:40 GMT -5
Didn't we already vote ( yes ) on the split along with some other things?
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