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Post by nylefty on Jan 12, 2017 14:21:00 GMT -5
Reality show possibly showing Afrezza predominantly (something like that...) may not be that great. Old folks watch these shows? Matt is doing his best, and I'm not faulting him.. Sounds like Damon Dash will be heavily involved with the reality show, probably as host. His fans are hardly "old folks."
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2017 14:27:12 GMT -5
The contract salesforce agreement ends Jan 31st of this year. Matt indicated they plan to have 95 FTE in a sales capacity. For the record, when they announced that a contract sales team was going to be hired by Touchpoint solutions, the plan was around 70 - 80 reps and ultimately it ended up being around 40 -45 reps (correct me if I am wrong) and Touchpoint also hired some diabetes nurse educators (around 10??). The burn rate with 95 FTE in a sales capacity along with corresponding sales management is going to result in a higher burn rate than the cost of 45 Touchpoint reps. In addition, they have or will be brining on some additional talent in other capacities that impact cash burn. The Valencia property was sold for $17.3 mm which is lower than what was anticipated that it could fetch. Add in commissions, legal fees etc for the transaction and it probably nets MNKD around $15.7 - $16.3 mm. Based on this, my dartboard guess is with current cash on hand, the well goes dry by 6-30-17.
I believe Proboards Matt indicated that if a RS was going to happen, it would need to commence by around March 6th (again feel free to chime in and correct me if I am wrong). With 95 new reps coming on board (if they really hire that many) along with per diem diabetes nurse educators that will use, unlikely to NRx and TRx will show a strong enough growth trajectory to get SP > $1 in time to avoid delisting of the stock. Bottom line, we are going to need a significant infusion of cash in some way, shape or form in the next 6 weeks or a big RS is coming and shareholders will take a bath. Experts chime in but from what I know, RS is the beginning of the end. RS is a sign of desperation when no other options are available and after a RS, shorts will pound the price down again. As a long time long (8+ years) it does not make me happy but we are where we are.
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Post by madog365 on Jan 12, 2017 14:28:07 GMT -5
Reality show possibly showing Afrezza predominantly (something like that...) may not be that great. Old folks watch these shows? Matt is doing his best, and I'm not faulting him.. Sounds like Damon Dash will be heavily involved with the reality show, probably as host. His fans are hardly "old folks." Keep in mind that Damon has his own online tv network and has said he wants to do more content for the diabetic community... I wouldn't be surprised if the meetings we saw in December between Mike and Damon had to do with this "reality show" www.billboard.com/articles/columns/hip-hop/7476876/dame-dash-tv-filmon
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Post by therealisaching on Jan 12, 2017 14:37:30 GMT -5
The contract salesforce agreement ends Jan 31st of this year. Matt indicated they plan to have 95 FTE in a sales capacity. For the record, when they announced that a contract sales team was going to be hired by Touchpoint solutions, the plan was around 70 - 80 reps and ultimately it ended up being around 40 -45 reps (correct me if I am wrong) and Touchpoint also hired some diabetes nurse educators (around 10??). The burn rate with 95 FTE in a sales capacity along with corresponding sales management is going to result in a higher burn rate than the cost of 45 Touchpoint reps. In addition, they have or will be brining on some additional talent in other capacities that impact cash burn. The Valencia property was sold for $17.3 mm which is lower than what was anticipated that it could fetch. Add in commissions, legal fees etc for the transaction and it probably nets MNKD around $15.7 - $16.3 mm. Based on this, my dartboard guess is with current cash on hand, the well goes dry by 6-30-17. I believe Proboards Matt indicated that if a RS was going to happen, it would need to commence by around March 6th (again feel free to chime in and correct me if I am wrong). With 95 new reps coming on board (if they really hire that many) along with per diem diabetes nurse educators that will use, unlikely to NRx and TRx will show a strong enough growth trajectory to get SP > $1 in time to avoid delisting of the stock. Bottom line, we are going to need a significant infusion of cash in some way, shape or form in the next 6 weeks or a big RS is coming and shareholders will take a bath. Experts chime in but from what I know, RS is the beginning of the end. RS is a sign of desperation when no other options are available and after a RS, shorts will pound the price down again. As a long time long (8+ years) it does not make me happy but we are where we are. The only way I see it as a positive if its announced in conjunction with a large new investment, say $200MM so it never goes down this road again. Problem is I'm not sure such an announcement can be concurrent with the notice to shareholders to authorize the RS.
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Post by nylefty on Jan 12, 2017 14:38:35 GMT -5
nylefty, I never try to be misleading. How would you summarize what matt said about the graph that mn posted? Thank you. Tend to agree with uvula on this one. I'll split the difference in that it takes 2-3 years to be a break out star. And it's been two years so far. We don't need to be a "break out star" this year as long as we show significant progress.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2017 14:39:41 GMT -5
The contract salesforce agreement ends Jan 31st of this year. Matt indicated they plan to have 95 FTE in a sales capacity. For the record, when they announced that a contract sales team was going to be hired by Touchpoint solutions, the plan was around 70 - 80 reps and ultimately it ended up being around 40 -45 reps (correct me if I am wrong) and Touchpoint also hired some diabetes nurse educators (around 10??). The burn rate with 95 FTE in a sales capacity along with corresponding sales management is going to result in a higher burn rate than the cost of 45 Touchpoint reps. In addition, they have or will be brining on some additional talent in other capacities that impact cash burn. The Valencia property was sold for $17.3 mm which is lower than what was anticipated that it could fetch. Add in commissions, legal fees etc for the transaction and it probably nets MNKD around $15.7 - $16.3 mm. Based on this, my dartboard guess is with current cash on hand, the well goes dry by 6-30-17. I believe Proboards Matt indicated that if a RS was going to happen, it would need to commence by around March 6th (again feel free to chime in and correct me if I am wrong). With 95 new reps coming on board (if they really hire that many) along with per diem diabetes nurse educators that will use, unlikely to NRx and TRx will show a strong enough growth trajectory to get SP > $1 in time to avoid delisting of the stock. Bottom line, we are going to need a significant infusion of cash in some way, shape or form in the next 6 weeks or a big RS is coming and shareholders will take a bath. Experts chime in but from what I know, RS is the beginning of the end. RS is a sign of desperation when no other options are available and after a RS, shorts will pound the price down again. As a long time long (8+ years) it does not make me happy but we are where we are. The only way I see it as a positive if its announced in conjunction with a large new investment, say $200MM so it never goes down this road again. Problem is I'm not sure such an announcement can be concurrent with the notice to shareholders to authorize the RS. If they got a $200mm injection would be no need for RS. SP would go over $1 pretty quickly. Replay of todays presentation is up.
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Post by sophie on Jan 12, 2017 14:56:04 GMT -5
Tend to agree with uvula on this one. I'll split the difference in that it takes 2-3 years to be a break out star. And it's been two years so far. We don't need to be a "break out star" this year as long as we show significant progress. I understand where you're coming from, but what people aren't discussing or accounting for is that graph shows insulins that were marketed by well-funded companies with a much larger salesforce than ours. What no one else is discussing either is that those graphs represent parabolic growth for the most part, but growth nonetheless. No need to rehash all the reasons why our chart doesn't show growth, but it's concerning to say the least that we're not any farther along after nearly 2 years than we were when we started. It'd be one thing if no effort were being put into it. We now clearly know this was not, is not, and will not be the case moving forward. I hope this presentation puts to rest all those who think MNKD has been dragging their feet (although I pray those people were just trolling us and not being serious) since getting Afrezza back. From the sound of things, there is much more that goes into this than we are aware of. I don't know how else you can talk about last year being a very busy year and have little to show for it. I get the sense that there may be interested global partners, but that none of them will justify the enormous investment until they see we are successful here. This should dispel another argument that happened here recently. This presentation wasn't terrible, but it seems to me like it showed there isn't a whole lot Matt can do short term outside of trying to sell Afrezza. I think it's Afrezza or bust for us at this point. No more hinting at catalysts that will get us above $1, simply that he believes in the plan they have in place for Afrezza and that's going to have to take us to the promised land.
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Post by yossarian on Jan 12, 2017 15:11:26 GMT -5
Does anyone have any info on the Q&A which was NOT part of the available presentation?
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 12, 2017 15:17:33 GMT -5
What no one else is discussing either is that those graphs represent parabolic growth for the most part, but growth nonetheless. Actually, I think only one of the products really shows parabolic growth. And, in any case, the graph also only shows products that succeeded. It omits failures (and I assume also those that under-performed). So parabolic growth is far from guaranteed. Early in his presentation Matt mentioned 40 new diabetes products on the market since '05, most did not make the graph.
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Post by madog365 on Jan 12, 2017 15:20:33 GMT -5
just listened to the presentation:
Thought the addition to the Aetna formulary ("light PA") was a strong positive. Matt also said there would be another positive formulary announcement very soon.
The TV commercial is in production. FDA has a long approval process on ads so i don't expect we will see Afrezza commercials until Q2 or later.
The speed at which they hired 60+ reps is impressive, they are expecting the total size of the salesforce to be over 90. Matt mentioned that Afrezza sales are highly responsive to promotional activities. Sounds like the compensation plans heavily incentivize performance with equity/bonus
Sounds like we will hear very soon abotu details for the pediatric studies.
About time for international expansion and filings. I am looking forward to seeing who they partner with in other countries. I don't think they will be hiring an international salesforce.
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Post by oldfishtowner on Jan 12, 2017 15:23:32 GMT -5
I missed all but the last few minutes of the presentation, but at the last CC, I think it was Mike C. who told us that NRx at the end of 2016 would be about the same as Sanofi left it at the end of 2015. Well NRx at the end of 2015 was 174 while as of the last weekly report at the end of 2016 (last week's report) NRx was 119. Not even close. I would rather Matt and Mike be more conservative than optimistic in predicting results that don't come to fruition.
With respect to the discussion of what Matt said on when scripts would take off, it is clear from the long-term chart of the script growth of other insulin, the 4-5 year time frame puts the market for those insulins in the $500 million to $1 billion plus range. If that what Matt was projecting, then I agree with him. It will take that long to get Afrezza into the blockbuster status. By then the share price will be in the 20's or 30's or higher.
For the near-term, however, the goal is to get the stock price back above $1. The requirement for script growth in that context is much more modest and may be achievable within the next couple of quarters.
I don't think we will see Matt or Mike making projections of future script counts. I think they will be content with working the issues, identifying and fixing problems, and continually improving marketing, doing the best they can to improve scripts and hopefully seeing investors and the market pleased with the results.
The big question today is whether or not the new sample pack and the flex (titration) pack will significantly improve the new patient experience, solve the dosing problem and cut the dropout rate in half or more. If they do, then the larger in-house sales force could have a major impact on script growth. If not, we may have to wait until the new label is approved to see any significant change in script trends. I don't know which is the case and I don't think Matt or Mike know the answer yet either.
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Post by kdaddyfresh2000 on Jan 12, 2017 15:29:13 GMT -5
Am I the only one who was not that impressed with the conference presentation today? I have been with this company for years and this is more of the "stay tuned" same I have come to know and not love.
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Post by sophie on Jan 12, 2017 15:46:27 GMT -5
With respect to the discussion of what Matt said on when scripts would take off, it is clear from the long-term chart of the script growth of other insulin, the 4-5 year time frame puts the market for those insulins in the $500 million to $1 billion plus range. It will take that long to get Afrezza into the blockbuster status. I don't think we will see Matt or Mike making projections of future script counts. I think they will be content with working the issues, identifying and fixing problems, and continually improving marketing, doing the best they can to improve scripts. I don't think this is necessarily true. It doesn't have to take us that long, but it could also take longer. The one advantage we have on that chart is that all of those insulins were competing with each other with roughly the same characteristics. Administration, dosing, speed, behavior is all roughly the same. Afrezza remains boom or bust simply because it is so different. I don't think Afrezza will have similar numbers with any of these other insulins, one way or another, when it's all said and done. It will either never penetrate, or it will eat away at each until another true competitor comes along to challenge it. Or that thing called a cure happening. That'd obviously be bad news for us but great for diabetics. This reveals the danger of believing so much in something to think that it can't fail. I wouldn't expect Matt/Mike to be doubtful about the success of their product, but it does show how thinking there's no way it won't catch on can distort one's thinking. I truly hope that they have isolated all the issues and have viable solutions for each. However, it seems like this one is outside of their control as they have not shown any progress in the one area that matters- script #. I've felt it was a combination of unwillingness to prescribe and apathy from diabetics. They're getting creative and thinking of new ways to break through, but it's still obvious (to me at least) that they're still in the throwing darts against the board phase. They're going to test DTC in one area before expanding it to national coverage. It's a wise move. I'm not criticizing it, but even their DTC efforts consist of throwing things against the wall to see what sticks.
I wonder if anyone will count how many times Matt said "hope" in the call.
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Post by humann on Jan 12, 2017 15:48:13 GMT -5
The contract salesforce agreement ends Jan 31st of this year. Matt indicated they plan to have 95 FTE in a sales capacity. For the record, when they announced that a contract sales team was going to be hired by Touchpoint solutions, the plan was around 70 - 80 reps and ultimately it ended up being around 40 -45 reps (correct me if I am wrong) and Touchpoint also hired some diabetes nurse educators (around 10??). The burn rate with 95 FTE in a sales capacity along with corresponding sales management is going to result in a higher burn rate than the cost of 45 Touchpoint reps. In addition, they have or will be brining on some additional talent in other capacities that impact cash burn. The Valencia property was sold for $17.3 mm which is lower than what was anticipated that it could fetch. Add in commissions, legal fees etc for the transaction and it probably nets MNKD around $15.7 - $16.3 mm. Based on this, my dartboard guess is with current cash on hand, the well goes dry by 6-30-17. Not sure if you actually listened to the presentation, but for the record, he specifically addressed this, stating that the anticipated burn rate should not change significantly because they will eliminate the overhead of the contracting agency and use a compensation model with lower base, higher bonus + stock options. I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone can see the full-time employed sales force as anything but a necessary move. It shows that management is directly addressing stagnant sales.
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Post by nylefty on Jan 12, 2017 15:52:04 GMT -5
I believe Proboards Matt indicated that if a RS was going to happen, it would need to commence by around March 6th (again feel free to chime in and correct me if I am wrong). Proboards Matt also told us that the contract sales people were costing 10 million a month and that bankruptcy was imminent last fall. I take anything he says with a huge grain of salt.
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