|
|
Post by sluggobear on Jan 12, 2017 16:17:10 GMT -5
Amazing. A pretty dang positive article in The Street, no less.
I'm sure this belongs in the "articles" threads but in case some have not seen it:
Insulin Drug Offers Hope for MannKind
Jim Collins
1/12/17 4PM
|
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Jan 12, 2017 16:24:15 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by kc on Jan 12, 2017 16:36:42 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Jan 12, 2017 16:40:51 GMT -5
I'll certainly give author Jim Collins an "A" for attitude and he makes some excellent points in his article. He notes, "...I bought MNKD this week ahead of its presentation at JPMorgan."
Excerpts:
"Don't forget, though, the genius behind Afrezza has always been its Technosphere delivery system. It has always been MNKD's intention to use Technosphere with other drugs, a prospect that seemed like a pipe dream before the settlements were reached with Sanofi.
"Pfeffer noted today that MNKD continues to work with the FDA on an orally delivered formation for epinephrine. I think we all learned during the Mylan (MYL) fiasco that epinephrine itself is now generic, and it is the delivery systems that are expensive. To replace a jab into the thigh with a quick inhalation (Pfeffer demonstrated this at the conference) would be a huge win for those with allergies that can cause anaphylactic shock.
"That's the upside for MNKD in the longer term, while in the shorter term I expect results from Afrezza to improve markedly as payor support improves and the in-house sales force matures.
"So, once again I am directly at odds with that amorphous group known as "the shorts." My firm absolutely crushed the shorts on Navios (NM) in 2016 (we still own it, and NM is still rising) and I look forward to doing battle again this year."
---
|
|
|
|
Post by oldfishtowner on Jan 12, 2017 16:51:00 GMT -5
With this afternoon's positive article on thestreet.com upgrades can't be too far away. Neither can a stock price above $1.
|
|
|
|
Post by kc on Jan 12, 2017 16:54:42 GMT -5
Who is Jim Collins:
Seem to have good credentials.
|
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Jan 12, 2017 17:07:55 GMT -5
With this afternoon's positive article on thestreet.com upgrades can't be too far away. Neither can a stock price above $1. MannKind (MNKD) shares have been eviscerated over the past 18 months as the company suffered through a bad breakup with Sanofi, the company's marketing partner on its inhalable insulin drug, Afrezza. The launch of Afrezza was a series of botches and errors that would have been at home in an episode of Fawlty Towers.
Afrezza is contra-indicated for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), not surprising since it is absorbed into deep lung tissue. Sanofi seemed to misunderstand this issue and was caught off guard when endocrinologists did not have the proper equipment to perform the simple spirometry test needed to prove lung function. Also, Afrezza's initial sample packs did not include an inhaler. The revolutionary aspect of Afrezza is its powdered insulin formation, but it's kind of hard to demonstrate that without the proprietary inhaler.
So the diabetes market has not embraced Afrezza, and short-sellers have pounced. As of the last reported data, MNKD had 98.6 million shares shorted, a full 30.6% of the float and nine days' worth of trading.
The shorts have declared Afrezza a failure, and script data from pharma consultants IMS and Symphony show Afrezza's market reception has been tepid, at best. MNKD's CEO, Matt Pfeffer, acknowledged at today's JPMorgan Healthcare conference that Afrezza has experienced a "script lull" in recent weeks as MNKD shifts from a contract sales force to an in-house marketing staff. So this product is not flying off the shelves, and I would throw up my hands and say "the shorts are right," except for one key fact: Afrezza works.
I am not a biopharma analyst, but MNKD's numbers show that Afrezza typically works in 16-21 minutes, twice as fast as injected insulin products, and also leaves the body much more quickly. Really, though, the Holy Grail is lower A1C blood-sugar levels, and social media are rife with stories of Afrezza users who are able (and present the Dexcom device data to prove it) to consistently keep A1C under the important 7% level.
If you want further info, read this article by Mary Caffrey in the American Journal of Managed Care.
But the upside of Caffrey's excellent piece is the downside for MNKD stock. A dedicated group of diabetics love Afrezza, but are having to fight with their endocrinologists and/or insurance companies to get prescriptions for it.
That's changing, and that's why I bought MNKD this week ahead of its presentation at JPMorgan.
•As previously announced, Express Scripts (ESRX) added Afrezza to its formulary in 2016 fourth quarter with no prior authorization (PA) requirements
•Pfeffer announced in his presentation that Aetna (AET) added Afrezza to its formulary as of Jan. 1 with PA requirements that he described as "not onerous."
•Pfeffer further noted that he expects to announce another managed-care win "soon."
The breakup with Sanofi was ugly but lucrative for MNKD, to the tune of $120 million, the last part of which was announced today in an 8-K. MNKD was able to divest an unused faculty that had been used as collateral for the loan that Sanofi has forgiven.
Don't forget, though, the genius behind Afrezza has always been its Technosphere delivery system. It has always been MNKD's intention to use Technosphere with other drugs, a prospect that seemed like a pipe dream before the settlements were reached with Sanofi.
Pfeffer noted today that MNKD continues to work with the FDA on an orally delivered formation for epinephrine. I think we all learned during the Mylan (MYL) fiasco that epinephrine itself is now generic, and it is the delivery systems that are expensive. To replace a jab into the thigh with a quick inhalation (Pfeffer demonstrated this at the conference) would be a huge win for those with allergies that can cause anaphylactic shock.
That's the upside for MNKD in the longer term, while in the shorter term I expect results from Afrezza to improve markedly as payor support improves and the in-house sales force matures.
So, once again I am directly at odds with that amorphous group known as "the shorts." My firm absolutely crushed the shorts on Navios (NM) in 2016 (we still own it, and NM is still rising) and I look forward to doing battle again this year.
realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/01/12/2017/insulin-drug-offers-hope-mannkind?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
|
|
|
|
Post by humann on Jan 12, 2017 17:09:55 GMT -5
short-crushing... I like it  |
|
|
|
Post by madog365 on Jan 12, 2017 17:13:05 GMT -5
Most surprising is the lack of MNKD bashing tweets today from our friend Alan Firestine. Maybe The Street finally kicked him to the curb.
|
|
|
|
Post by biffn on Jan 12, 2017 17:22:41 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Jan 12, 2017 17:25:05 GMT -5
He hasn't been turned to the dark side by Adam yet, or maybe a ploy - imagine if this guy were to switch sides.
|
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Jan 12, 2017 17:28:14 GMT -5
I'll certainly give author Jim Collins an "A" for attitude and he makes some excellent points in his article. He notes, "...I bought MNKD this week ahead of its presentation at JPMorgan."
Excerpts:
"Don't forget, though, the genius behind Afrezza has always been its Technosphere delivery system. It has always been MNKD's intention to use Technosphere with other drugs, a prospect that seemed like a pipe dream before the settlements were reached with Sanofi.
"Pfeffer noted today that MNKD continues to work with the FDA on an orally delivered formation for epinephrine. I think we all learned during the Mylan (MYL) fiasco that epinephrine itself is now generic, and it is the delivery systems that are expensive. To replace a jab into the thigh with a quick inhalation (Pfeffer demonstrated this at the conference) would be a huge win for those with allergies that can cause anaphylactic shock.
"That's the upside for MNKD in the longer term, while in the shorter term I expect results from Afrezza to improve markedly as payor support improves and the in-house sales force matures.
"So, once again I am directly at odds with that amorphous group known as "the shorts." My firm absolutely crushed the shorts on Navios (NM) in 2016 (we still own it, and NM is still rising) and I look forward to doing battle again this year."
---
Excerpt. I would throw up my hands and say "the shorts are right," except for one key fact: Afrezza works.
|
|
|
|
Post by brotherm1 on Jan 12, 2017 17:50:54 GMT -5
" "Amorphous" shorts" " I think he might be correct. I hope he's correct.
|
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Jan 12, 2017 18:28:39 GMT -5
I posted the link to the original article in the second post in this thread ... I can't help but wonder why it was posted again three times since by others over the next 2 hours? Do all of you have me on ignore or something?  |
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Jan 12, 2017 18:44:02 GMT -5
Most surprising is the lack of MNKD bashing tweets today from our friend Alan Firestine. Maybe The Street finally kicked him to the curb. I wouldn't count him out yet. If this script "lull" (as CEO Pfeffer called it) continues in January, there may be some more bear raids. AF's role is to publish immediately before the raid(s) so that any traders accused of manipulating can claim that they were merely reacting to information from an AF article. Once script numbers start growing at a high enough rate to attract investors, it may spell the end for the sizable short interest in MNKD. Until then, I expect to hear at least one more time "that f***ing AF has published another hit piece".  |
|
