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Post by harshal1981 on Apr 8, 2014 22:48:42 GMT -5
One one of the threads on this board, I mentioned that the best short term appreciation in share price will come in the following three stages:
1) FDA Approval
2) Partnership (I have strong opinion that buy-out is not going to happen)
3) First quarter sales data post launch.
Certainly first two events will bring lot of institutional investors and resultant price appreciation however, the share price will reflect best potential of Afrezza after we have first three months of sales data post launch. If the prescription volume curve shows extrapolated revenue potential of couple of billions in first few years, the mega funds will jump on the stock (they have to find less risky, bit stable stock with long term potential of good appreciation - all mega funds have a peculiar issue - "parking" their money where it will grow like a huge tree 10 years down the road).
The first quarter positive sales uptake will really make this share price gradually climb. Timeline perspective this could be June/July 2015 when it will be optimal time to take profit if you really not going to stay for very long.
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Post by sunny3999 on Apr 8, 2014 23:32:41 GMT -5
I know some of you are thinking that there is no stock price effect on the future of techno sphere but I don't think you could be more wrong. I think we all realize that one day, not right away, but one day once everything gets going with afrezza, Al will sell the company. He's done it every time before, so I don't see why he won't again. The techno sphere platform is going to be worth big $ to the share price to anyone who buys the company because of its future potential, patents. Etc. This is something as investors we cannot overlook. MrHaigs I expect "Afrezza" is just one piece of the really big picture, assuming Technosphere will really work as plattform, the acceptance of modelling new Drugs in a very short time manner will take over for every disease which could work by inhaling..... Breakthrough will be "Afrezza", then the door is open for huge changes and innovations........ |
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Post by ezrasfund on Apr 8, 2014 23:41:40 GMT -5
Ironically for the Technosphere platform, Technosphere Insulin is probably the most challenging application because is it designed t be taken multiple times a day for many years. Certainly a medicine for an acute condition, or even for chronic pain, would be used less often and would be less of a concern with regard to long term effects like lung fuction and cancer.
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Post by slushy on Apr 9, 2014 11:31:34 GMT -5
I don't see any reason to hold beyond partnership if I can find another stock to invest my earnings. Once we get situated with approval and a partner/acquisition, the main speculation and volatility phase is over. All that will be left is MNKD actually having to deliver on sales (along with some approvals in other countries and additional technosphere developments). I don't see any reason not to take out a good chunk or all of my money at that point and put it into another stock that is going to have movement, all the while keeping an eye on MNKD for catalyst events that are going to cause the stock to spike or fall. I'm going to use these next 3+ months to figure out what stock is going to be the next big mover... any ideas? Uhhhhhh that would be MNKD. The real money in biotechs comes from revenue growth (sales). You are too focused on the binary developmental stage to see the real money. Revenue growth should be very rapid (off a zero base). Selling at the point of commercialization would be silly other than for good risk control. The game just started at that point! I'm very aware that there could be huge growth once revenue comes in, which is why I stated that I'd keep me eye on MNKD for events that would move the stock (quarterly earnings would be one of these events). There will most likely be a lot of the expected revenue built into the share price once we get partnered/acquired, so selling around that point will most likely be the high until earnings are released. I don't intend to let me money sit for 3+ months when I could be reinvesting it during the stagnant periods (for instance, MNKD went dead with a downward movement for 5 months after we got the trial results and waited for FDA). There's nothing wrong with holding long term, but I'm a trader at heart and I'd rather see my money work for me than bounce around a share price I could've sold at months before. |
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Post by jpg on Apr 9, 2014 12:54:56 GMT -5
I am in the same mood as bigboy, the "BIGBOYS" are just flying in as they could do their DD after the amazing Adcom and will have to buy and accumulate till latest Juli... and there are not so much shares left, lets see the Short Interest tomorrow.....with the next good IR we will have the squeeze for sure! I will ride this Bull till to the end! No doubt! No short squeeze, chances of that are almost nil; why? cuz they always are. I am by far an expert on how shorts cover and would value any expert imput. I do see the short squeeze thing differently maybe and don't necessarily think of a VW type squeeze (although that would be heaven to experience and Mannkimd has a few components that resemble this type of set up) when thinking of a short squeeze. I see short covering quickly or slowly as a mathematical equation. A bit like deleveraging after a big debt bubble (sound familiar?). A quick and painful deleveraging (painful for shorts) gets us the hoped for run up. A slower reversal on good news (as I view the adcom regardless of 3 month delay) establishes a floor price if shorts exit and cover slowly but consistently. The debt in shares has to be carried forward or covered. Good news will eventually work for us regarless of how the shorts act. They are not above the laws of mathematics? |
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Post by jpg on Apr 9, 2014 13:11:13 GMT -5
Uhhhhhh that would be MNKD. The real money in biotechs comes from revenue growth (sales). You are too focused on the binary developmental stage to see the real money. Revenue growth should be very rapid (off a zero base). Selling at the point of commercialization would be silly other than for good risk control. The game just started at that point! I'm very aware that there could be huge growth once revenue comes in, which is why I stated that I'd keep me eye on MNKD for events that would move the stock (quarterly earnings would be one of these events). There will most likely be a lot of the expected revenue built into the share price once we get partnered/acquired, so selling around that point will most likely be the high until earnings are released. I don't intend to let me money sit for 3+ months when I could be reinvesting it during the stagnant periods (for instance, MNKD went dead with a downward movement for 5 months after we got the trial results and waited for FDA). There's nothing wrong with holding long term, but I'm a trader at heart and I'd rather see my money work for me than bounce around a share price I could've sold at months before. You do what works for you and if you have the skill to trade in and out of these types of companies and do well you should obviously follow your edge. I am not a trader so I obviously can't do that. I also agree that biotech has a lot of 'dead money' periods but I would suggest or caution that the next 3 months will not be or might not be 'dead money periods' one way or the other. A lot could happen quickly? |
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Post by slushy on Apr 9, 2014 15:14:45 GMT -5
I totally agree, I'm not going anywhere until partnership and most likely not even after that unless I can find a stock that I think will give me a higher ROI than MNKD. My point is simply there will be a peak share price in the near future. IMO, it's going to happen probably sometime after partnership. Investor emotion will be high, the stock will go higher than it should be, and then retrace probably 25-50% of the gain. My plan is to try and catch that upswing, hopefully sell close to the peak, and then sit out for either the drop back down or "dead money period". At that point I'll either buy back into MNKD or divert money into another stock until I think MNKD has bottomed out and is ready to have another round of big growth.
At the end of the day, I'm basically lock-step with the rest of you. I think MNKD has a blockbuster in Afrezza and probably even more potential with Cricket. But how long will we have to wait to realize those gains? Different strokes for different folks, totally support anyone that wants to hold on for a couple more years.
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